Sustainable social spending

The paper discusses a number of threats to the financial sustainability of social spending: increased internationalization of national economies, gradually higher relative costs of producing a number of human services, the “graying” of the population, slower productivity growth in the private sector, low employment rates, and various types of disincentive effects related to the welfare state itself, including moral hazard. I argue that threats from gradually rising costs of providing human services and disincentive effects of welfare-state arrangements, in particular moral hazard and benefit dependency, are more difficult to deal with than the other threats. I also discuss the choice between ad hoc policy reforms and automatic adjustment mechanisms, delegated to administrative bodies, for dealing with these threats. JEL Classification E62 · H31 · H53     

A health service fit for the 21st century : The Welsh ‘Health and Social Care 2010’ project

‘Health and Social Care 2010’, a project of the Welsh Health Planning Forum, has been designed to link the overall strategy of the National Health Service in Wales with the planning of local health-care strategies. During the first phase of the project, forces that may impact on health and social services in the future have been identified, and consideration has been given to how the services could adapt to the expected changes. The result has been a vision of a new kind of health care based on clusters of services. Testable indicators of the vision's fulfilment have also been identified in the form of nine assumptions regarding specific future developments in the health and social services. Groups at several pilot sites have analysed these assumptions in terms of their achievability and desirability, thus illuminating potential roadblocks in reaching the desired future, as well as creative ways around these problems.     

董事会人力资本、外部社会资本对企业创新投入的影响

基于资源依赖理论与高层梯队理论,依据2011-2016年深沪两市A股上市公司数据,考量董事会人力资本、外部社会资本对企业创新投入的影响。结果表明：董事会人力资本与企业创新投入呈正向关系,董事会外部资本对企业创新投入有一定促进作用,但董事会外部资本对董事会人力资本与企业创新投入关系的调节效应并不显著。鉴此,应优化董事会人力资本,拓展董事会外部社会资本,注重人力资本与外部社会资本的良性互动。     

COVID-19 social distancing and the US service sector: What do we learn?

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 social distancing on the US service sector. Results from four industry indexes (hotels, entertainment, restaurants and airlines) indicate that conditional correlations among index pairs exhibited substantial increases. Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) tests in dynamic conditional correlations show that while the relationship between airlines and entertainment venues is unstable, restaurants and hotels demonstrate stable co-movement. Markov regime-switching regression analysis suggests the pandemic is affecting mainly the entertainment and airline industries, with gradual deterioration in the hotel industry, led by small-market-cap companies. However, we see no evidence of a negative impact on the restaurant industry from the pandemic in our analysis period. This may be related to Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Based on our results, we recommend employment of effective working capital and supply chain management methods in the service sector to streamline the operations of affected companies. In addition, all other sectors should utilize appropriate methods of risk measurement and should take 'Black Swans' into account to incorporate a more accurate probability of unexpected events.     

Managing risk in an unstable world

With emerging markets like China and politically unstable countries like Saudi Arabia figuring more than ever into companies' investment calculations, business leaders are turning to political risk analysis to measure the impact of politics on potential markets, minimize risks, and make the most of global opportunities. But political risk is more subjective than its economic counterpart. It is influenced by the passage of laws, the foibles of government leaders, and the rise of popular movements. So corporate leaders must grapple not just with broad, easily observable trends but also with nuances of society and even quirks of personality. And those hard-to-quantify factors must constantly be pieced together into an ongoing narrative within historical and regional contexts. As goods, services, information, ideas, and people cross borders today with unprecedented velocity, corporations debating operational or infrastructural investments abroad increasingly need objective, rigorous assessments. One tool for measuring and presenting stability data, for example, incorporates 20 composite indicators of risk in emerging markets and scores risk variables according to both their structural and their temporal components. The indicators are then organized into four equally weighted subcategories whose ratings are aggregated into a single stability score. Countries are ranked on a scale of zero (a failed state) to100 (a fully institutionalized, stable democracy). Companies can buy political risk analyses from consultants or, as some large energy and financial services organizations have done, develop them in-house. Either way, a complete and accurate picture of any country's risk requires analysts with strong reportorial skills; timely, accurate data on a variety of social and political trends; and a framework for evaluating the impact of individual risks on stability.     

Infrastructure, Externalities, and Economic Development: A Study of the Indian Manufacturing Industry

If infrastructure tends to generate spillover externalities,as has been the assumption in much of the development literature,one may reasonably look for evidence of such indirect effectsin the accounts of manufacturing industries. Empirical supportfor this assumption has so far been ambiguous. This analysisof Indian data, however, reveals substantial externality effectsfrom the states’ infrastructure to manufacturing productivity.The analysis separates the direct effects of roads and electricity,as mediated by the infrastructure services purchased by manufacturingindustries along with other intermediate inputs, from the indirecteffects, as measured by the impact of infrastructure capacityon the Solow productivity residual. In the 20 years from 1972to 1992, growth of road and electricity-generating capacityseems to have accounted for nearly half the growth of the productivityresidual of India’s registered manufacturing.     

Making Conditional Cash Transfer Programs More Efficient: Designing for Maximum Effect of the Conditionality

Conditional cash transfer programs are now used extensivelyto encourage poor parents to increase investments in their children’shuman capital. These programs can be large and expensive, motivatinga quest for greater efficiency through increased impact of theprograms’ imposed conditions on human capital formation.This requires designing the programs’ targeting and calibrationrules specifically to achieve this result. Using data from theProgresa randomized experiment in Mexico, this article showsthat large efficiency gains can be achieved by taking into accounthow much the probability of a child’s enrollment is affectedby a conditional transfer. Rules for targeting and calibrationcan be made easy to implement by selecting indicators that aresimple, observable, and verifiable and that cannot be manipulatedby beneficiaries. The Mexico case shows that these efficiencygains can be achieved without increasing inequality among poorhouseholds.     

高房价是否导致了区域高技能人力资本流出?

我国正处于由人口大国向人力资本强国转型的关键阶段,高技能人才资源已成为当今区域经济社会发展的第一资源;与此同时,我国已经历了一段房价全面上涨的时期,由房价高速上涨所导致的人才流出问题引起政府与公众的广泛关注。在此背景下,本文通过对大学生就业地选择的关注,考察了高房价对地区高技能人力资本流出的影响。本文的结果稳健地表明,高房价显著地提高了大学毕业生离开本地就业的概率;根据本文的估计,在2010年至2015年期间,房价的上升至少增加了区域高技能人才流出21.5%;特别地,房价的挤出作用对于较弱家庭背景的学生以及非一线城市更为严重,此外,高房价也影响了大学毕业生的职业选择。本文的研究结果指出了中国高房价可能影响长期经济社会发展的一个新的重要渠道;同时,通过对房价的关注,为地区与国家减少高技能人才流出,实现经济发展由要素驱动向创新驱动转变提供了新的启示。     

Commercial Property Rent Dynamics in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: An Examination of Office, Industrial, Flex and Retail Space

This paper is concerned with the market rental rate for space offered by commercial property and how that rental rate evolves over time. Rental rates reflect the value of the services provided by the property and can have a significant impact on the ability of its owners to make monthly debt obligations. We investigate commercial property rent dynamics for 34 large metropolitan areas in the U.S. The dynamics are studied from the second quarter of 1990 through the second quarter of 2009 and the results are compared across four property types or uses (office, industrial, flex, and retail). There is substantial heterogeneity in both the long and short run responses to changing demand and supply conditions. In general, the office market is the slowest to adjust back towards equilibrium while industrial and flex markets adjust back to the long run equilibrium very quickly. For industrial and office types, the speed of adjustment is substantially faster within quality segments and is strongest for grade A properties.     

The Limited-Service Brokerage Decision: Theory and Evidence

This study examines the home seller’s brokerage services decision, comparing full-service brokerage and limited-service arrangements. A model is developed which considers seller motivation and availability of effort, along with the cost of brokerage services, broker productivity and market dynamics as factors of influence in this decision. Limited-service arrangements are found to have a significant impact on price and marketing time. The popularity of limited-service arrangements is strongly influenced by the total dollar cost of brokerage services, which, in turn, is determined by housing market conditions.     

Omitted Mobility Characteristics and Property Market Dynamics: Application to Mortgage Termination

Property market dynamics depend on changes in long run equilibrium and on impediments to adjustment towards equilibrium. Mortgage termination due to mobility, default and refinancing provides a lens for evaluating property market adjustments. The borrower’s decision to move as an adjustment mechanism in the property market is associated with utility-maximizing decisions to either prepay or default on the mortgage. The optimal choice between these two termination events may depend on unobserved propensities related to change in income, job location, or family size, and substantial inertial forces including search costs, neighborhood change and attachment to an area. We propose a method for modeling variables determining the impact of mobility on mortgage terminations with imperfect household and loan level data. Since omitted variables contribute to moving decisions and therefore to mortgage prepayment and default decisions, utility functions for sale and default are correlated through these unobservable variables; thus, the IIA assumption of the widely used Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) is violated. Under such circumstances, econometric theory suggests that the Nested Logit Model (NMNL) is a better choice, which obviates the limitation of MNL by allowing correlation in unobserved factors across alternatives. Using loan level micro data, we find empirical evidence showing significant correlation between sale and default due to omitted borrower mobility characteristics. Our simulations find that NMNL out performs MNL in out-of-sample prediction. Improved predictions of moves and defaults are applicable to micro and macro analysis of the housing market system.     

社会保险缴费负担对企业人力资本结构的影响研究

理解社会保险缴费负担如何影响企业人力资本结构,对社保缴费制度改革和供给侧结构性改革尤为重要.本文以中国沪深A股2007-2020年2847家制造业上市公司为研究样本,采用固定效应模型实证检验了社会保险缴费负担对企业人力资本结构的影响.研究发现,社会保险缴费负担能够提高高低技能劳动力的相对雇佣比,具有显著的人力资本结构升级效应.机制分析表明,社会保险缴费负担主要通过固定资产投资规模和员工人均薪酬两个渠道对企业人力资本结构产生影响.进一步地分析表明,社会保险缴费负担的人力资本结构升级效应在非国有、劳动密集型、小规模及高融资约束企业中存在较强的异质性.因此,当前我国社会保险缴费率下调的大背景下,政府应该审慎权衡社会保险缴费负担与企业人力资本结构的内在联系,警惕社保缴费负担降低过多反而会阻碍企业人力资本结构的提升.     

Comprehensive indicators of traffic-related premature mortality

Motor vehicle circulation is associated with multiple social benefits; nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that it also produces a variety of adverse health effects, of which the most relevant are associated with mortality from road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollution. Though in Chile these impacts have been quantified and evaluated independently, no indicators have been developed so far to account for this activity’s global impact on public health, or to express the individual impact that can be attributed to each vehicle category. In order to fill this void, the present study aimed at designing and quantifying indicators that account for the global impact on health that different motor vehicle categories impose on Chilean society. Health impact was quantified as the number of expected premature deaths caused by road accidents and exposure to atmospheric pollutants. Total premature mortality was understood as the total annual deaths that occurred as a consequence of road accidents and the exposure to O₃ and PM_2.5 derived from traffic-related emissions of its precursors. All estimations were made considering Chile’s Metropolitan Region in 2005 as a basic scenario. Differentiated indicators were obtained for 15 vehicle categories as a function of different parameters: traveled kilometer, vehicle, and vehicle lifetime. According to our results, when the health impact of traffic accidents and exposure to traffic-related air pollution are considered simultaneously, major differences were observed with the indicators traditionally used by regulators involved in the traffic-related decision-making process. The implications of our results on risk management strategies are discussed.     

Local social environment and the speed of leverage adjustment

This study examines the impact of social capital on firms’ leverage adjustment speed. Using a comprehensive dataset of 83,374 firm-year observations for 744 US counties for 1990–2016, we find that both underleveraged and overleveraged firms located in US counties with higher levels of social capital incur slower leverage adjustment towards their optimal target capital structure. This finding is robust to alternative measures of leverage and social capital, different model specifications, controlling for county- and firm-level characteristics, and endogeneity. We further identify two mechanisms through which social capital affects leverage adjustments: monitoring (channel for underleveraged firms) and disciplinary (channel for overleveraged firms) mechanisms.     

共同富裕目标下农业社会化服务对城乡收入差距的影响——兼论农村劳动力转移与人力资本的门槛效应

通过分析农业社会化服务发展水平对城乡居民收入差距的影响机理，并利用2011—2020年省级面板数据进行实证检验。结果发现：农业社会化服务发展水平对城乡收入差距的影响呈先缩小后扩大的“U”形趋势，且农业社会化服务对农村居民收入的提升效果大于其对城镇居民收入的影响；农业社会化服务发展水平对城乡收入差距的影响存在门槛效应；农村劳动力转移越多、农村人力资本水平越高，农业社会化服务对城乡收入差距缩小的作用效应越明显。把全国样本分成粮食主产区、粮食主销区和粮食产销平衡区三部分进行区域异质性检验，结果显示，农业社会化服务发展也有利于城乡收入差距的缩小。基于此，应在大力发展农业社会化服务水平的基础上，通过加快农村劳动力转移和提升农村人力资本水平等方式强化农业社会化服务缩小城乡收入差距的作用，进而实现共同富裕。     

SOCIAL INCOME AND PUBLIC SECTOR CORPORATIONS: A CASE STUDY OF THE GHANA FOOD DISTRIBUTION CORPORATION

The feasibility and impact of obtaining a pragmatic measure of social income is attempted in a case study of the Ghana Food Distribution Corporation for the period 1983–1986. Differences between conventional accounting income and social income are assessed with the conclusion that reliance on the conventional accounting model is likely to be misleading for the purposes of assessing performance. While the feasibility of measuring social income is demonstrated there is a need for more relevant information to be made publicly available and for consideration to be given to developing a broad range of financial and non-financial indicators of performance.     

The Effect of Trading Halts on the Speed of Price Discovery

Trading halts are aimed at reducing information asymmetry by granting investors the opportunity to reassess trades upon arrival of new, substantial information. This study is the first to address the efficiency of the price discovery process with respect to time, i.e., the speed of adjustment to new information. A unique database allow us to conduct an event study analysis and measure the impact of trading halts on price discovery while controlling for content, operational and value effects. We find that information dissemination following trading halts is over 40% faster and that abnormal trading activity is positively related to the speed of price adjustment.     

基于模糊层次分析法的科技企业孵化器评价体系研究

基于从综合服务能力、可持续发展能力、基础服务条件和孵化效益四个方面,构建科技业孵化器评价指标体系,运用模糊层次分析法确定各指标的权重。实证结果表明:科技项目申报资助额、经营服务管理水平、高素质员工比例和科技创新基金年平均投入量是衡量科技企业孵化器运营绩效的重要指标。     

New development: The evolution of Welsh devolution

The reliance on consumer choice to drive improvements in public services is at the centre of policy debates in the UK and elsewhere. However, the discourse of consumerism occurs in the midst of a quagmire as to whether users of public services can legitimately be considered as customers, citizens or co-producers, while the existing evidence on how far they assume the role of public service consumers is largely ignored. This article discusses research on users' attitudes to choice in health, education and social services in the UK, the European Union and the USA. Provision of public services is rarely about acquiring products for pure consumption, but more about providers and users jointly addressing essential social and human needs. The author argues for an alternative conception of public service provision going beyond the limitations of consumerism, although some users are more likely to choose certain public services over others (for example schools rather than health services). However, the evidence presented disproves the view that users of public services will act as discerning consumers in the market-place.     

Developing Countries' Changing Participation in World Trade

Recent years have seen substantial reductions in trade policyand other barriers inhibiting developing country participationin world trade. Lower barriers have contributed to a dramaticshift in the pattern of developing country trade—awayfrom dependence on commodity exports to much greater relianceon manufactures and services. In addition, exports to otherdeveloping countries have become much more important. Thesechanges have profound implications for the role played by developingcountries in the world economy and trade system.