Ag econ angst crisis revisited

The present paper was inspired by and is a response to the Rola-Rubzen, Hardaker and Dillon paper 'Agricultural economists and world poverty: progress and prospects' (Rola-Rubzen et al. 2001). It is agreed that the position of agricultural economists in foreign aid and poverty programs has declined over recent decades. Such a feeling of guilt and remorse expressed by the above authors does indeed create considerable 'angst'. A major reason for this state of affairs lies in 'the flavour of the month' approach of the development agencies. These include women in development, gender-based farming systems research, household nutrition and food security, people participation, and targeting the poorest of the poor. These fads have driven disciplinary considerations to the wall and the more widely-defined objectives have reduced the drive for economic efficiency. We argue there is still a place for better designed and delivered assistance programs within the wider framework of assistance that has become fashionable. Greater application of institutional principles in both the political processes associated with assistance and the implementation agencies would improve the outcomes of many projects. Particular attention would need to be given to the interface between the development agencies and recipient governments. The present paper picks up on the market failure aspects of agriculture's rather poor contribution to development, and develops a wider perspective in terms of the new institutional economics and a continuing role for the agricultural economist.     

Agricultural economists and world poverty: progress and prospects

New development paradigms come and go, seemingly with increasing rapidity, yet poverty remains the scourge of the developing nations. As we enter the new millennium, we fear that still more development fads and fancies will emerge, to be taken up and then dropped by the development community. These swings in fashion bring with them the danger that the 'basics' of effective development strategies for poverty reduction will be neglected. In this article, we advance some personal and perhaps controversial views about the virtues of getting agriculture moving as a means of reducing poverty, and about the role that agricultural economists can and should play in that endeavour.     

Multidimensional poverty in Afghanistan: who are the poorest of the poor?

Taking a capability approach perspective, our paper aims at advancing our understanding of poverty in Afghanistan, and at identifying the most deprived, including persons with disabilities, in order to address the first Sustainable Development Goal to eradicate poverty in all its forms. We used data from a national survey carried out in Afghanistan in 2005. We calculated one index using two weights structures, the adjusted headcount ratio, part of the multidimensional poverty measures. Following a participatory process, we identified and validated 13 indicators clustered in seven dimensions of poverty, including three usually neglected dimensions. Findings suggest that exploring various domains of deprivation would better inform poverty eradication policies than an approach focused only on income. Our results also demonstrate that nearly all Afghan adults are deprived in at least one dimension and those residing in rural areas, from minority ethnic groups, women, elderly people and persons disabled at birth or of an unknown cause are the poorest of the poor. Efforts to improve well-being must acknowledge these inequalities so that public policies in Afghanistan aiming at alleviating poverty take these disparities into account, when facing a reduction in available resources.     

When do Agricultural Exports Help the Rural Poor? A Political-economy Approach

Many economists have argued that agricultural exports should be one of the best ways to reduce rural poverty in developing countries, through the creation of productive employment in the rural areas. Non-economists have tended to be sceptical, often seeing such exports as competitive with food crops and thus potentially threatening to an adequate supply of food. The historical record includes many cases in which the prospect of profitable agricultural exports prompted the rich/powerful to appropriate land formerly occupied by lower income agricultural workers, often squatters or people with traditional land rights. That record, as currently understood, leaves it unclear whether such exports have more frequently brought benefits to the rural poor or hurt them. An adequate model of the poverty effects of agricultural exports must thus take account of how control of land (and labour as well) may be shifted among groups without compensation as it becomes more valuable. Two major issues/questions are of current interest. First, have the unjust mechanisms whereby the rich wrested valuable resources from the poor in the past become less common? Second, is there evidence that the sort of labour-intensive agricultural exports most likely to benefit the poor are growing fast enough to suggest an important poverty effect at present and in the future? More in-depth research is needed to clarify both points. For the present, it appears unlikely that agricultural exports will be a major source of poverty reduction for the rural poor in the Third World taken as a whole.     

Has Chinese Certified Emission Reduction trading reduced rural poverty in China?

Consolidating and expanding poverty alleviation while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions has become one of the main issues facing China. The Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) trading programme is an important supplementary mechanism to China's carbon trading market. Based on the data of 1782 counties in China from 2006 to 2017 and a difference-in-differences model, this study investigates the rural poverty reduction effect of CCER trading. We find that: (1) during the sample period, CCER trading has increased the per capita net income of rural residents by at least 2.5% or 187.5 RMB (about 27.8 USD or 39.3 AUD) per year. (2) The poverty reduction effect of CCER trading in poor counties is greater than that in nonpoor counties. (3) Some relevant heterogeneous effects are also measured. We find that CCER trading of hydropower projects has played a significant poverty reduction effect; the poverty reduction effect is further enhanced when the county has additional CCER projects; we also identify regional differences with CCER trading having a greater poverty reduction effect in the western and central regions. (4) Compared with the implementation of the CCER project, trading the emission reductions generated by the CCER project has brought more significant poverty reduction effects.     

PROBLEMS OF CHANGE IN AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

There has been a low level of methodological controversy within the Australian agricultural economics profession. Johnson's 1963 paper is the most significant and in it he passed criticisms on agricultural production economists not unlike those currently being made by political economists of economics in general. These past criticisms have in the main been ignored by the Australian profession but it is suggested that they are now being pushed with renewed vigour and they can no longer be ignored. It is argued that our policy work has by and large been successful and effective except for significant areas where our methodology was of restricted usefulness. In farm management the Johnsonian strictures would seem to apply but a more charitable interpretation is provided which should meet the approval of the political economists. Our almost complete neglect of development economics must soon draw to an end and we will find that the methodologies which we have relied on heavily and fairly successfully must be augmented as we become more involved in this field. The political economics challenge should be recognized and accepted with relish because the nature of our work is changing and will continue to change in the future. We have adapted fairly well as adjustment and equity have become major policy concerns. Meeting the political economics challenge will help this process of adaptation.     

Foreign Aid and the Quest for Poverty Reduction: Is Aid to Agriculture Effective?

Development statistics estimate that three quarters of the poor live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. Consequently, research focusing on economic growth and poverty reduction has found that sustainable rapid transition out of poverty requires a special emphasis on the agricultural sector. This study contributes to the debate on aid effectiveness by disaggregating total aid into subcategories and specifically investigating the relationship between aid given to the agricultural sector and poverty reduction. If agricultural development is more effective in reducing poverty than some other types of development, then foreign aid directed towards agriculture may be more efficient in increasing the well‐being of the poor than aid directed to some other sectors or uses. Our analysis uses panel data for developing aid recipient countries to empirically test this relationship. We find a significant relationship between agricultural aid and poverty reduction in our estimates.     

Economic Liberalization and the Vintages of Machinery Imports in Developing Countries: An Empirical Test for India's Imports from the United Kingdom

Drawing upon new World Bank poverty data, the analysis examines the feasibility of attaining the Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty (MDG1) when the interrelationships between finance, institutions, trade liberalization, growth and poverty are taken into account. The authors' econometric results suggest a slowing down of poverty reduction in the more recent years since 2000. They also confirm: the role of better institutions in income growth, poverty reduction, trade openness and financial development; the role of financial development in economic growth; and the positive effect of capital liberalization on financial development. Simulations for different regions show that MDG1 is attainable in most regions if the historical growth rate is maintained over 2006–15. However, improvements in institutional quality are crucial for halving extreme poverty in sub-Saharan Africa.     

In Defence of Neo-Classical Neo-Populism

This paper is a response to the discussion in the special issue of this Journal on Redistributive Land Reform Today (Vol. 4, Nos. 1 and 2). We begin by attempting to clarify the methodological debate, differentiating our approach, which our critics call neo-classical neo-populism, from mainstream neo-classical economics and historical materialism. We then distinguish between land tenure reforms and redistributive land reforms, and argue that it is the latter that really matter. Next, we address the issue of the inverse relationship between farm size and productivity. Fourth, we discuss cases in which systems of labour control are used to transform the peasantry into a landless rural proletariat and challenge the view that systems of labour control can usefully be reduced to a problem of transaction costs. We end with discussions of reform in the transition economies, China and Bangladesh, where we defend the view that it is the distribution of landownership rather than operational holdings that largely determines the extent of poverty.     

20世纪90年代的贫困缓解：中国和印度的比较分析

本文通过对中印两国的文献分析，对20世纪90年代两国的贫困缓解进行了比较研究，表明两国在缓解贫困的路上有很多共同之处。可以发现自从自由化改革以来，中印两国的绝对贫困水平已经降低。然而，两国的贫困分布都是不均的，不公平程度在增加，贫困越来越集中在几个地区和群体。由于两国都在进行经济改革，对缓解贫困中的这些共同的行为很值得进一步探讨。     

Consistent poverty comparisons and inference

Building upon the cost of basic needs (CBN) approach, an integrated approach to making consumption-based poverty comparisons is presented. This approach contains two principal modifications to the standard CBN approach. The first permits the development of multiple poverty bundles that are utility consistent. The second recognizes that the poverty line itself is a random variable whose variation influences the degree of confidence in poverty measures. We illustrate the empirical importance of these two methodological changes for the case of Mozambique. With utility consistency imposed, estimated poverty rates tend to be systematically higher in rural areas and lower in urban areas. We also find that the true confidence intervals on the poverty estimates—those incorporating poverty line variance—tend to be considerably larger than those that ignore poverty line variance. Finally, we show that these two methodological changes interact. Specifically, we find that imposing utility consistency on poverty bundles tends to tighten confidence intervals, sometimes dramatically, on provincial poverty estimates. We conclude that this revised approach represents an important advance in poverty analysis. The revised approach is straightforward and directly applicable in empirical work.     

Violent visions of an ownership society: The land administration project in Petén, Guatemala

This article is a case study of phase one of the World Bank's land administration project in Petén, Guatemala. Although the project's stated aims are merely to formalize an existing set of individual landed property rights, this development intervention necessarily changes the property regime, thereby changing underlying relationships that land as property embodies. Impact evaluations conducted by development economists may fail to substantively address displacement and violence that occur as a short-term effect of the project and long-term disparate impacts of the project that may exacerbate existing inequalities. The case of Petén also highlights the possibility for violent enforcement of property boundaries, where conflict surges between the disenfranchised and those who gain power under the new property regime.     

Farmers' adoption of ecological practices: A systematic literature map

Understanding the factors associated with adoption of ecological farming practices is a well-established topic of interest to agricultural economists. As the transition to more sustainable agriculture has become a policy priority for the European Union, broad and balanced reviews of this literature are important. We develop a systematic map of quantitative observational studies which describes the ecological practice(s) adopted, the frequency of inclusion and significance of a range of independent variables, and how the dependent variable is measured. We also conduct a quality assessment. We find that while socio-demographic variables and farm structural variables are frequently included, they were insignificant more often than they were significant. For behavioural factors we find stronger evidence for the importance of cognitive or attitudinal variables compared to dispositional attitudinal variables. We also find a growing interest in social factors which will be valuable for researchers to explore further and reflect on the policy implications of our findings.     

State-conditional Fertilizer Yield Response on Western Kenyan Farms

Fertilizer interventions have attained prominence in rural poverty reduction programs in Africa. Using data from maize plots operated by small farmers in western Kenya, we find a von Liebig-type relationship between soil organic matter (SOM) and maize yield response to nitrogen application. Low SOM commonly limits the yield response to mineral fertilizer application. Although fertilizer is, on average, profitable in our sample, on roughly one-third of the plots degraded soils limit the marginal productivity of fertilizer such that it becomes unprofitable at prevailing prices. Moreover, because poorer farmers most commonly cultivate soils deficient in SOM, fertilizer interventions might be less pro-poor than is widely assumed and may instead reinforce  ex ante  income inequality.     

印度森林资源管理与消除贫困考察报告

对印度森林资源管理、林产品贸易及加工、联合森林经营和消除贫困等情况进行了考察。联合森林经营是印度最重要的社会林业形式,对于恢复退化林地、增加当地居民收入、消除贫困、保障林产品需求等有较大贡献;印度政府将反贫困作为重要目标之一,制定有不同阶段的具体措施,并积极依靠民间科技力量扶贫,成效显著。印度森林资源管理及消除贫困的经验值得我国借鉴。     

Reform of tenancy systems and agrarian development: A Latin American case study

The present study employs recent World Bank data to shed light, in a global context, on the transformation of changes in income and inequality into poverty reduction for a large number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The study begins by discussing SSA's progress on poverty. Next, it presents data on how various African countries have fared in terms of the incidence of poverty relative to other countries, with special emphasis on the period since the mid-1990s, when SSA generally experienced a growth resurgence. The paper then decomposes performance on poverty into changes in income and inequality for a sample of SSA countries that have the requisite data. The paper finds that recent progress on poverty has been considerable, in contrast to the earlier, 1980–early 1990s, period. Compared with the progress in a global sample of countries, however, progress has been mixed: nonetheless, although African countries lag behind the Brazil, India, China and Russia group of countries as a whole, many of them have outperformed India. Furthermore, while income growth is found to be the main engine for poverty reduction in SSA in general, the role of inequality is crucial in certain countries. Viewed in a global context, moreover, the low levels of income have inhibited the effectiveness of income and inequality improvements in reducing poverty in many African countries.     

Agricultural economics: Key commitments and institutional alertness

This presidential address highlights the foundational and ongoing importance of the historical commitments of agricultural economists to applied research and outreach programs. In addition, I stress that institutional alertness increases the pragmatic approach. When research, extension, and institutional alertness are fully integrated, agricultural economists have the potential to generate grounded knowledge, which has meaningful implications to our effort to improve life. I develop these ideas generally and with specific reference to my own research.     

REVIEWS*

Book reviewed in this article: Agricultural Economics and Marketing in the Tropics. By J. C. Abbott and J. P. Makeham. Strategy for the LIK Dairy industry. Rural Employment and Adminktration in the Third World. By Charles Harvey, Jake Jacobs, Geoff Lamb and Bernard Schaffer. Agricultural Marketing Boar: An Zn fernationol Perspective. Edited by Sidney Hoos. The Economics of Pastoralism: A Case Study of Sub-Saharan Africa. By Z. A. Konczacki. A Survey of Agricultural Economics Literature. Volume 2. Quantitative Methods in Agricultural Economics, 1940s to 1970s. Edited by Lee R. Martin. .And the Desert Shall Rejoice. Conflict, Growth and Justice in Arid Environments. By Arthur Maass and Raymond L. Anderson. The Plant Protection Discipline. Problems and Possible Development Strategies. By Webster H. Sill Economics and Design of Small-Farmer Technology. Edited by Alberto Valdes, Grant M. Scobie and John L. Dillon.     

Heterogeneous consumers and differentiated food markets: Implications for quality signaling in food supply chains

The Fellow's address begins by noting several recent consumer food trends and the changing way in which we perceive value-added. I then focus on the topic of heterogeneity in consumer behavior, reviewing contributions from the literature that enhance our ability as economists to model and measure heterogeneity. Supply chain responses to consumer heterogeneity are examined, including a discussion of information flows within supply chains and the role of certification and verification. I close with a consideration of policy implications flowing from consumer heterogeneity.     

Targeting,bias, and expected impact of complex innovations on developing‐country agriculture: evidence from Malawi

Agronomic analyses of new technologies are often conducted under carefully controlled research station programs or trials managed by self‐selected farmers. Oftentimes, the technologies are then scaled up with minimal evaluation under real‐world conditions. Yet, the interim step between agronomic trials and large‐scale promotion is crucial to generate evidence on the social and economic impact of technologies that is both internally valid and generalizable. The article focuses on a participatory action research program in Malawi designed to test and identify scalable technology options to intensify the smallholder sector and contribute to poverty reduction and food and nutrition security. We examine the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers testing technologies and find evidence of systematic targeting of better‐endowed farmers. After controlling for observable differences using matching and a doubly robust estimator, we find evidence of early positive effects on maize yield and harvest value, although placebo tests suggest possible selection on unobservables. We note that attention should be given to program design and household characterization to better define and improve targeting criteria, technology selection, and external validity.