商洛市非充分竞争条件下利率定价与信贷投入调查

理论上研究以及国际实践认为,高利率有利于弱势群体得到贷款支持。对商洛市农村金融市场展开调查,从非完全竞争条件出发探讨影响利率定价的因素以及利率定价与信贷投入的关系。调研结果表明,农村金融市场的垄断性造成利率定价偏高,借款人对于利率定价改革产生错误认识。提出建立合理的贷款利率定价机制并严格执行,加大市场化利率改革的宣传力度等政策建议,以期改善农村信贷市场效率。     

我国可转债定价效率可以提高吗?-基于套利交易成本的视角

基于我国可转债定价效率低的事实,本文构造了套利策略,并分析了交易成本的影响.剔除交易成本后,单只可转债的简单套利策略的夏普比率均值表明,投资者每承担1单位风险平均获得0.54单位的风险溢价,Fama-French三因子模型α均值约为11.81%,且具有显著超额收益的可转债占总样本的66.67%;套利组合在调整交易成本后均能获得正的超额收益.这说明,投资者有限信息或不完全理性是导致我国可转债定价效率低的原因.本文为可转债市场发展提供了启示.     

2013可转债投资分析

<正>转债定价剖解价格的两个构成因素——债底与权证影响可转债价格的因素主要是两部分,即债底和权证价值,可转债指数主要波动在于权证价值的波动,而债底波动较小。若以二项式期权定价模型来计算权证价值的话,联讯证券认为有两个方面影响到可转债指数的运行,一方面在于成分的不同造成的指数纵向的联动性差异,包括成份债和指数久期等,另一方面在于金融资产现价的波动所造成的指数波动。     

中国农村民间借贷市场利率定价模型的经验分析

本文运用经济学方法对中国农村民间借贷市场利率定价过程进行经验分析,着重考察农村民间借贷利率受到公共信息和私人信息的影响程度,分别对借款人、贷款人以及市场交易价格建立利率定价多元回归模型并进行实证.结果显示,市场交易价格模型方程在F-检验1％水平上显著,其他模型具有R2的统计显著性;反映借款用途的变量在10％水平上显著,其他变量均在5％水平上显著.这说明该市场利率能够反映公共信息的影响,借款人和贷款人的利率定价也反映了各自私人信息中风险和能力因素的影响,可知农村民间借贷市场是借贷双方自主交易的民间金融市场,其利率定价过程基本实现了市场化.     

基于契约成本的我国上市公司可转债融资选择的实证研究

本文以中国上市公司在融资过程当中产生的道德风险、逆向选择和财务成本等契约成本为研究视角,从上市公司融资时所处宏观经济环境及企业自身的财务指标两个方面来研究中国上市公司发行可转债的融资选择.研究表明市场总成交额、公司所处行业的绩效、贷款的利率、公司的成长性、资产负债率及GDP增长均与公司的可转债融资选择负相关.公司规模、固定资产比率、财务松弛度与企业可转债融资选择正相关.公司年龄和融资前一年的股价波动对企业的可转债融资选择没有显著影响.     

利率互换的定价模型及其实证研究

本文研究利率互换的定价模型，以及利率互换的定价过程。从选取债券到拟合理论即期利率曲线、远期利率曲线，最后拟合出互换利率曲线，并对上述的定价模型和过程进行实证研究。对拟合结果与目前市场报价的相同点和差异进行分析，并对国内利率互换的套期保值策略进行实证研究。     

合理利用 可转债融资

<正> 可转债融资分析与普通公司债券、股票融资方式相比,可转债融资具有四方面的优势: (1)发行公司信用级别要求低、融资成本相对低 Standard & Poor's Bond Guide 90年代初的一期资料(数据如表1)显示,当年美国10家发行可转债的公司中,有4家信用级别属于“垃圾债券”,另外三家刚达投资级BBB;另外,这10家公司可转股债的平均利率为6.975％,而当年美国国库券平均利率为7.5％,一般企业债券比这就更高。到目前为止,我国还没有从法律上硬性要求发行企业债券的公司进行信用评级,发行可转换债券就更没有这方面的要     

巨灾债券定价参数敏感性分析——以我国洪水灾害为例

巨灾债券是巨灾风险转移资本市场上交易最活跃、使用最广泛的金融创新产品,其定价涉及的影响因素较为复杂。本文基于资产、负债和利率理论引入巨灾债券定价模型,并以我国洪水灾害为例对模型参数敏感性进行了分析,分别研究了触发水平、利率期限和资产负债比对巨灾债券定价的影响规律。参数敏感性研究结果表明:巨灾债券价格随触发水平、资产负债比的提高而增大,随利率水平的提高而降低;我国洪水灾害债券适宜的触发水平在万亿元量级,这主要是由我国洪水灾害损失分布决定的。本文研究对于我国巨灾债券发行具有精算定价及政策指导等参考作用。     

农村信用社利率定价模型实证分析

利率市场化改革的核心是建立科学合理的利率定价制度。目前,多数中小金融机构特别是农村信用社,贷款定价模式比较简单粗糙,在实际执行过程中广泛存在＂一刀切＂的现象。科学合理的利率定价模型不仅要涵盖银行资金成本、风险、目标利润等,还需要考虑贷款人的对利率的承受能力并有较强的可操作性。     

利率挂钩型结构化产品定价分析

近年来,结构化理财产品出现“零收益”甚至“负收益”的案例屡见不鲜,究其原因是发行者和投资者对于其设计机制,定价原理等核心内容不甚了解。本文将利率挂钩型结构化产品作为主要研究对象,以一款“区间累积型”利率挂钩型产品为例,对其定价原理进行分析,借助利率模型理论和浆特卡洛模拟方法确定该产品的理论价值,结果表明该产品为折价发行,投资风险较低,具有较高的投资价值。     

我国上市公司可转换债券融资研究——基于契约设计的视角

作为一种兼具股性和债性的混合型融资工具,可转债的契约条款设计可使其更偏向于股性或债性,本文通过对我国上市公司2002-2008年发行的可转债的主要条款,如发行期限、票面利率、转股期、转股价格、转股溢价率、赎回条款、回售条款、特别向下修正条款等进行分析,发现绝大多数可转债契约设计更偏向于股性,这既有发行人的主观原因,也有监管当局制度约束的客观原因。     

可转换债券对改善公司治理机制的作用研究

从股东、管理层和债券人三者之间的利益冲突出发,利用委托—代理理论系统分析了可转换债券是如何调和股东和管理层以及股东和债券人之间的利益冲突,降低代理成本,进而改善公司治理机制。     

The impact of convertible debt financing on investment timing

We develop a model to examine the timing of investment decisions in relation to the issuance of convertible debt by firms. Our model shows that when the demand shock has higher volatility, the firm finances the investment cost with high-coupon convertible debt. We find that default occurs earlier for firms that finance with convertible debt rather than with straight debt. We also find that firms with high-growth prospection, high volatility, and low capital costs that issue convertible debt tend to defer investments. Furthermore, we examine the investment decisions in which the convertible debt includes a call provision. We show that firms that use callable convertible debt invest earlier than those that use non-callable convertible debt by using suboptimal coupon payments. The opportunity from the forced conversion increases as the volatility increases. These results are consistent with recent empirical evidence.     

一种基于可转换债权的创业投资模式设计

本文基于可转换债权所具有的激励与约束的双重作用,建立了有条件免偿可转股债权投资模式,解决了创业初期风险投资者和创业企业家因对创业企业家的无形资产评估定价难以达成一致而无法及时达成投资协议的问题,提供了一种在创业初期具体的、可操作的投资模式。研究结果表明,有条件免偿可转股债权投资模式不仅有助于风险投资者和创业企业家达成投资协议,而且能保证风险投资者和创业企业家的投资项目取得成功。     

The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach*

This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of the degree of exchange rate flexibility. We show that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature on target zones that previous models were not able to generate jointly—namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of nonlinearity of the function linking the exchange rate to fundamentals, and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.     

STABILIZING THE EXPECTED PRICE LEVEL IN A BFH PAYMENTS SYSTEM

The Black-Fama-Hall system of free banking promises improved macroeconomic performance through the use of a common unit of account defined in terms of a bundle of goods and services and indirectly convertible means of payment. This paper shows how BFH can operate when the actual market price of the dollar-defining bundle is measured only periodically. The proposed version of BFH would require banks to calculate the amount of redemption medium (gold or securities) needed to redeem money using the subsequent measurement of the bundle's market price. The procedure in effect would make checks, banknotes, and token coins of given face value directly convertible into redemption medium of equal market value and into an index futures contract on the bundle's market price. The paper explains how the system would tend to stabilize the expected price of the dollar-defining bundle and uses a dynamic stochastic model to illustrate the consequences for the actual price level, real income, and interest rates.     

A lattice approach for pricing convertible bond asset swaps with market risk and counterparty risk

This paper proposes a new lattice framework for valuing convertible bonds (CBs) and asset swaps on CBs (CBASs) with market risk and counterparty risk, where interest rate is assumed to follow a mean-reverting square root process. The reduced-form approach is generalized to include a constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process for equity price prior to default. In order to approximate the CEV process while taking into account stochastic interest rate and the correlation between stock price and interest rate, I first propose a transform that is uncorrelated with interest rate, and then construct a new lattice method which can ensure the validity of branching probabilities for all nodes. The lattice framework performs properly when it is used to value European call options. Based on the empirical results in Duffie et al. (J. Fin. Econ. 83(3): 635-665, 2007) and Jankowitsch et al. (J. Bank. Fin. 32(7): 1269-1285, 2008), a novel default intensity process is constructed which is specified as a function of time, stock price, and interest rate. When valuing the asset swaps, the counterparty risk is taken into consideration. Based on the results of the numerical experiments, the impacts of different parameters on the prices of CBs and CBASs are explained.     

The Simple Post-Keynesian Monetary Policy Model: An Open Economy Approach

Monetary policy with an inflation targeting rule is analyzed through a simple small-scale Post-Keynesian model that incorporates open economy issues. In contrast with previous Post-Keynesian attempts, the model embodies policy authorities that are committed not only to hitting inflation and/or output targets, but also to the achievement of the external balance. To take account of the external balance objective, we model the real exchange rate as an endogenous and moving target, with the nominal exchange rate being the instrument of that target. The model shows that in response to an adverse external shock the central bank has to consider first the required real exchange rate adjustment that will preserve the external balance, and secondly the level at which the interest rate must be set in order to maintain inflation stabilization. Keeping inflation to target requires higher interest rates and strong reliance on the unemployment channel which, under certain circumstances, also has adverse side effects on income distribution. We show that to deal with an exogenous external shock a policy mix of real exchange rate targeting and income distribution targeting outperforms inflation targeting.     

有控制权利益的企业融资工具选择 --可转换债券融资的理论思考

本文扩展Stein( 1 992 )的模型,从控股股东角度出发考察在有控制权利益的情形下,企业对不同融资工具的选择,包括发行普通债券、可转换债券以及股票三种融资形式。控制权利益的存在使得“好”企业有内在动力发行可转换债券,Stein模型中无成本的分离均衡将不是唯一的。企业发行可转换债券是市场上各类企业的控股股东和外部投资者相互博弈的结果,而控股股东追求控制权利益的行为会给市场带来更多的不确定因素,增加了企业融资的代理成本,加剧了市场波动和投机行为,对此有必要加以控制     

Stage Financing and the Role of Convertible Securities

Venture capital financing is characterized by extensive use of convertible securities and stage financing. In a model where a venture capitalist provides staged financing for a project, we illustrate an advantage of convertible debt (or warrants) over a mixture of debt and equity. Essentially, when the venture capitalist retains the option to abandon the project, the entrepreneur has an incentive to engage in window dressing and bias positively the short-term performance of the project, reducing the probability that it will be liquidated. An appropriately designed convertible security prevents such behaviour because window dressing also increases the probability that the venture capitalist will exercise the conversion option becoming the owner of a substantial fraction of the project's equity.