日本处理不良贷款的经验教训

谈到日本处理不良贷款的经验，首先是如何处理现存的不良贷款，另外就是采取什么措施防止新的不良贷款。第一个教训是，对于不良贷款问题的估计不足以及拖延处理可能会不可避免的发生，而这样就会导致问题更加严重。     

防范化解国有商业银行不良贷款的对策

银行不良贷款与企业不良债务是一个问题的两个方面。我国国有商业银行不良贷款之普遍,数额之巨在,损失之惨重,在国内史无前例,在国际上也是极其罕见的。按保守的估计,银行不良贷款约占贷款总额的20%-30%,若按此比例计算,1997年末我国银行不良贷款达14,983—22,474亿元,其中主要是国有商业银行的不良贷款,约1.5万亿元左右,且仅为帐面不良贷款。因我国银行不良贷款的隐蔽性、递增性、贷款质量占用形态的不合理性,实际不良贷款比帐面情况更为严重。造成我国国有商业银行如此巨额不良贷款的原因很多,其中既有银行自身的原因,也有企业的原因,更有制度的原因。从银行外部来看,主要是国有     

要闻回放

中国主要商业银行不良贷款继续保持“双下降”。银监会1月13日公布统计数据显示，2004年，我国主要商业银行在不良贷款控制上取得可喜成果。不良贷款余额和不良贷款率实现继2002年、2003年以来的第三年“双下降”。2004年，中国银监会在加强资本约束、风险拨备约束和授信尽职约束，严格风险控制措施，强化不良贷款监管及加大不良贷款处置力度等方面的工作颇见成效。     

抵押资产：市场价值亦或抵押贷款价值？

银行贷款抵押资产评估问题由来（一）抵押资产评估价值变现率低下的现实 不良贷款一直是我国银行业改革发展的主要障碍，是金融风险的主要表现。从2000年四季度开始，我国银行业不良贷款比例和余额开始实现“双下降“。然而，不良资产存量较高、不良贷款率高位徘徊的问题仍然比较突出。形成不良贷款的原因无疑是多方面的。     

中国银行业不良资产证券化:现况与展望

在当前经济转型和产业结构调整、信用风险不断暴露的背景下,商业银行开展不良资产证券化工作,对化解金融风险、有效服务实体经济具有明显的现实意义。但我国不良资产证券化自2016年重启以来,因法律、税收、会计等配套机制和措施不完备、市场主体有限、不良贷款估值难等短板制约,不良资产证券化尚难以向深度发展成为银行不良贷款化解的主要手段。本文通过分析我国不良贷款证券化实践运作的特点,阐述我国不良贷款证券化面临的主要困难,最后结合国际不良资产证券化的经验教训提出政策建议。     

引入机构投资者处置银行不良资产——本刊记者徐樱访中国工商银行投资银行部武士伟博士

截至2003年末，我国主要银行业金融机构不良贷款余额为2.44万亿元，不良贷款比例为17.80％。国有商业银行不良贷款余额19168亿元，不良贷款率为20.36％，政策性银行不良贷款余额3361亿元．不良贷款率为17.39％，股份制商业银行不良贷款余额1877亿元，不良贷款率为7.92％。另据统计，近年来，国有商业银行每年处置不良资     

信贷过快增长对不良贷款影响的研究

自国际金融危机爆发以来,为应对危机、确保经济复苏,商业银行发放了大量信贷。信贷扩张固然有助于克服国际金融危机所带来的冲击,但信贷过快增长也可能会导致不良贷款增加,影响金融稳定。基于信贷大幅增加的事实,本文阐述了信贷扩张影响不良贷款的几个途径,实证分析了信贷扩张与不良贷款之间的相关性,并在此基础上结合现实提出了维护金融稳定的政策建议。     

不良贷款下降是虚假的吗

实现不良贷款比例的净下降,有的同志出于对这项工作的关心,可能会提出降低不良贷款的真实性问题.可以负责地说,不排除个别银行机构弄虚作假,但总体上比较真实、接近真实、相对真实.     

银行不良贷款的制度成因

我国银行体系的不良贷款主要是由于制度原因形成的,信贷市场制度设计的不完善和制度的供给不足是巨额不良贷款形成的直接原因,合理而有效的信贷市场制度供给对不良贷款的形成具有制约作用。     

国有商业银行不良贷款处置问题探索

四大国有商业银行是我国银行业的主体,在国民经济运行中扮演重要的角色。其巨额不良贷款问题已是我国金融业改革和发展的最大最难障碍。本文介绍了国内外不良贷款处置现状及启示,提出坚持以政府为主导,通过建立市场化处置不良贷款机制,多渠道化解存量不良贷款。同时指出今后不良贷款工作重点应是防范新增不良贷款,本文从银行角度提出,国有商业银行必须构建全面风险管理体系,以此防止新的不良贷款大规模产生。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…