One Man's Meat … 2050? Ruminations on Future Meat Demand in the Context of Global Warming

This Address considers a range of issues relating to the contribution of meat consumption and livestock production to global warming, given the need highlighted by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to reduce global GHG emissions by over 50% by 2050. The IPCC Climate Change 2014 report recognised that demand oriented measures may also contribute to GHG mitigation. The paper reviews a number of studies which examine demand‐led mitigation potentials, and concludes that such estimates ignore the market effects of changes in meat consumption habits or demand oriented policies. A simple partial equilibrium model of beef, poultry, pig and ovine meats is developed for the major regions of the world to explore the impact of a range of scenarios which might reduce meat consumption and GHG emissions. These include emissions taxation, long‐term trends in reduction of red meat consumption in developed economy regions, and supply side improvements in livestock emissions intensities. The paper discusses problems associated with many published demand elasticities suitable for incorporation into a market model, problems of selection from widely varying published estimates and their appropriateness for longer‐run projections. The dearth of published supply elasticity estimates is also highlighted. The modelling concludes that economic and population growth to 2050 without any mitigation measures will lead to a 21% increase in per capita meat consumption and a 63% increase in total consumption and GHG emissions by 2050. However, the mitigation projections from the scenarios explored only generate a 14% reduction in cumulative emissions from the baseline 2050 projections, insufficient to meet the CCC target.     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.     

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's current per capita income is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population and per capita consumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.     

Australia's consumption‐based greenhouse gas emissions

We use data from the World Input‐Output Database in a multiregional input–output model to analyse Australian consumption‐based greenhouse gas emissions for the years 1995 to 2009. We find that the emission content of Australian macroeconomic activity has changed over the 15‐year period. Consumption‐based emissions have been growing faster than production‐based emissions since 2001. We show that emissions embodied in Australian imports are increasingly becoming a significant source of emissions. We investigate emissions in Australian imports and find that increased trade with China contributed substantially to the increase in Australia's consumption emissions. China was the largest exporter of emissions to Australia and accounted for almost half of emissions embodied in Australian imports since 2002. The growth of trade with China coincides with the increase in imported emissions as well as the increase in aggregate consumption emissions. Our results suggest that tracking consumption emissions together with production emissions provides a more complete picture of Australian emissions.     

Impact of farm management diversity on the environmental and economic performance of the wheat–maize cropping system in the North China Plain

To assess the attainable greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential from crop production in China's most important grain production region, the North China Plain (NCP), single farm environmental and economic performances of 65 winter wheat–summer maize (WW–SM) producing households were determined. The results revealed a huge heterogeneity among farms, with up to five times higher environmental impact of worst compared to best performing farms. Astonishingly no trade-off between productivity and sustainability could be identified in the region, with high-yield farms emitting no different amounts of GHGs per hectare compared to low-yield farms. Building on cluster analysis, with farms grouped according to their economic and environmental performance into ‘poor’, ‘fair' and ‘good’ producers, the regional GHG mitigation potential was estimated. Under the scenario assumption that all grain in the NCP is produced under ‘good’ production conditions, 21% and 7% of GHG could be mitigated in wheat and maize production, respectively. The study shows that in the NCP, exemplary for China's rapidly developing agricultural sector, the crop management skills of a substantial share of farmers could obviously not keep pace with the massive input intensification. Among others, farmer–farmer trainings are recommended to close the gap in crop production performance among producers.     

收入增长、饮食结构转变与食物系统碳排放——来自中国6省住户调查数据的证据

目的 食物系统碳排放在全球碳排放中的比重已达到30%。聚焦居民收入增长对食物消费结构变化的影响及其带来的碳排放效应，从饮食结构视角考察居民收入增长导致的食物系统碳排放变动。方法 文章从微观视角运用EASI需求系统模型分析不同收入增长模式下食物系统碳排放的可能增长路径。结果 （1）收入增长会使碳排放密集型的牛羊肉等动物类食物的消费量快速增长；（2）在不考虑收入分布变化的收入增长10%～50%的情景下，人均食物系统碳排放的变动在-5.23%～13.99%，收入差距缩小和中等收入群体壮大的收入增长模式则会使排放进一步增加；（3）在收入增长幅度低于30%时，农业减排技术进步可以有效中和食物系统碳排放增长，反映出农业减排技术进步对于减缓食物系统碳排放的重要性和有限性。结论 有必要制定依靠农业减排技术创新为核心的综合减排策略，进一步促进饮食的健康和环境协同增效，引导居民的饮食结构向果蔬等植物类食物及“低畜肉，高禽、蛋、奶、水产品”的动物类饮食结构转变。     

中国种植业碳排放的测度、脱钩特征及驱动因素研究

目的 研究中国种植业碳排放的时空差异、脱钩特征及驱动因素,为中国种植业低碳化可持续发展以及推动中国农业高质量发展的相关政策制定提供决策参考。方法 文章基于2001—2018年中国大陆31个省（市,自治区）种植业农用物资投入、种植业产值等统计数据,通过IPCC碳排放系数法对种植业碳排放量进行测度,采用Tapio模型揭示中国种植业碳排放脱钩特征,并进一步运用LMDI模型探析种植业碳排放的主要驱动因素。结果 （1）近年中国种植业碳排总量来趋于下降,化肥是其最主要碳源,碳排放量、碳源及碳排放强度存在较大的地区差异;（2）中国种植业碳排放脱钩类型近年来整体上呈现强脱钩,但省际差异化明显;（3）生产效率的碳排放抑制作用趋于增强,生产结构的碳排放增加效应显著,产出水平是碳排放增加的最主要驱动因素,劳动因素的碳排放增加效应趋于下降。结论 应坚持科技创新与结构优化、注重因地制宜与突出重点、着力提质增效与绿色发展,以期实现中国种植业低碳化高质量发展。     

中国生猪产业国际竞争力评价研究基于贸易与产业发展视角的比较分析

目的 中国是世界上最大的生猪生产国和消费国,科学评价中国生猪产业国际竞争力水平,对于提高生猪产业国际竞争力水平,促进生猪产业可持续发展,具有重要的理论和现实意义。方法 文章基于产业发展视角构建了包含资源禀赋竞争力、生产竞争力、消费竞争力和贸易竞争力4个一级指标及13个相关二级指标的生猪产业国际综合竞争力评价指标体系,利用1995—2018年生猪产业相关数据,对中国、美国、德国、巴西、西班牙、俄罗斯等生产、消费和贸易大国生猪产业国际综合竞争力进行评价,并与传统的基于贸易视角的竞争力评价结果进行对比分析。结果 研究发现,基于贸易视角与产业发展视角的测算结果存在一定差距。基于贸易视角的测算结果显示,中国生猪产业缺乏竞争力,且竞争力仍在持续减弱。基于产业发展视角的测算结果显示,中国生猪产业具有一定竞争优势。其中,中国猪肉消费竞争力极强,显著拉升了中国生猪产业国际综合竞争力水平;生产竞争力和资源禀赋竞争力也具有一定优势;贸易竞争力处于劣势地位,明显拉低了中国生猪产业国际综合竞争力水平。结论 建议中国生猪产业充分发挥巨大的内需优势,提升生猪产业国际竞争水平,实现生猪产业高质量发展。进一步提高中国生猪种业创新能力,保障优良种猪供给;提高生猪生产技术效率与经济效率,提升生猪养殖场组织化、标准化、规模化水平;稳定生猪生产饲料供给;建立生猪产业风险防范机制。     

Energy productivity and greenhouse gas emission intensity in Dutch dairy farms: A Hicks–Moorsteen by-production approach under non-convexity and convexity with equivalence results

The agricultural sector is currently confronted with the challenge to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, whilst maintaining or increasing production. Energy-saving technologies are often proposed as a partial solution, but the evidence on their ability to reduce GHG emissions remains mixed. Production economics provides methodological tools to analyse the nexus of agricultural production, energy use and GHG emissions. Convexity is predominantly maintained in agricultural production economics, despite various theoretical and empirical reasons to question it. Employing non-convex and convex frontier frameworks, this contribution evaluates energy productivity change (the ratio of aggregate output change to energy use change) and GHG emission intensity change (the ratio of GHG emission change to polluting input change) using Hicks-Moorsteen productivity formulations. We consider GHG emissions as by-products of the production process by using a multi-equation model. Given our empirical specification, non-convex and convex Hicks-Moorsteen indices can coincide under certain circumstances, which leads to a series of theoretical equivalence results. The empirical application focuses on 1,510 observations of Dutch dairy farms for the period of 2010–2019. The results show a positive association between energy productivity change and GHG emission intensity change, which calls into question the potential of on-farm, energy-efficiency-increasing measures to reduce GHG emission intensity.     

基于生态系统服务改进的中国各地农业生态效率研究

[目的]为提高全国农业资源利用率,推动建立资源节约型与环境友好型的可持续"两型农业",对中国农业生态效率展开研究发现,农田生态系统服务是农业生产的重要产出,但在当前生态效率研究中未得到充分体现。文章通过量化农田生态系统服务价值,有利于权衡农产品供需关系,更好以农田生态系统给人类社会带来的福利为目标来开展农业生产。[方法]文章将生态系统服务价值作为期望产出之一,将全国划分为东部地区、东北地区、中部地区和西部地区的4个农业效率研究区域。运用非期望产出数据包络分析方法,计算2014年中国30个省(市、自治区)的农业生态效率,并分析其主要影响因素。[结果](1)中国农业生态效率整体水平良好,平均值为0.945,在空间上表现为东部东北西部中部的空间分布格局。(2)影响全国农业生态效率的关键因素为土地投入、机械投入、化肥投入和水资源投入。农业生态系统服务指标与农业生态效率呈正向相关。土地、农药、劳动力、机械、水资源、化肥、农膜和能源投入、农业产值及碳排放均与之呈负向相关。其中农药投入是最为显著的抑制因子,控制农药投入是提升全国农业效率核心因素。(3)中国农业生态效率空间分异格局是多层影响因素叠加而成,中国农业生态效率损失的原因主要在于资源要素消耗的过量与农业碳排放过多。[结论]中国农业生态效率整体上发展较好,但各省市的农业生态效率水平存在较大差异,仍有上升的空间。从投入产出冗余角度来看,目前中国农业生态效率损失的原因主要在于资源要素消耗的过量与农业碳排放过多。在发展中着重加大区域对农业土地的开发投入、推广机械科学技术、减少化肥等污染物投入与提高水资源的利用效率,发展用水技术,保障农业的可持续发展。     

我国奶业市场结构的量化评估、机制分析及规制理路

目的 21世纪以来我国奶业快速发展,市场结构不断呈现新状态和新特征。通过综合研判我国奶业市场的结构类型,进而分析我国现阶段市场结构类型形成的动因及影响,并对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。方法 文章基于2001—2020年《中国奶业年鉴》及企业年报整理所得数据,利用行业集中度指数、洛伦兹曲线与基尼系数、赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数、熵指数综合研判了我国奶业市场的结构类型,进而分析形成动因及影响,并结合国内外经验对奶业寡头垄断市场的政府规制理路提出建议。结果 （1）近20年我国奶业市场结构呈现3阶段变化,2004年及以前处于垄断竞争阶段;2005—2016年处于垄断竞争向寡头垄断过渡阶段;2017年及以后进入初级双寡头垄断阶段。（2）我国奶业初级双寡头垄断市场结构是来自市场竞争的自然形成,规模效应、行业壁垒和全球化趋势是寡头垄断市场形成的主因。结论 现阶段我国奶业市场已进入初级的寡头垄断阶段,寡头垄断市场有利有弊,我国应从制度上进行顶层设计,发挥寡头垄断模式的积极作用,减少其负面效应的影响,保障奶业持续健康发展。     

How can trade partners be chosen when facing food scandals? China's milk scandal as a natural experiment

Using China's milk scandal as a natural experiment, this paper explores whether the countries of origin and export destinations have the same responses to the original country's food scandal. Our difference-in-difference estimation shows that the outbreak of China's milk scandal had asymmetric impacts on China's total imports (increased by 23.4%) and exports (sharply dropped by 65.8%). The results further show that China's milk scandal contributed to import increases from European and Oceanian countries. Moreover, China's milk scandal worsened exports, mainly those going to neighbouring Asian regions but increased exports to Oceania. A product quality index is constructed to explain this finding. Intuitively, consumers' perceived quality of Chinese products declined, and they tended to consume products from other countries. The lower the product quality was with those in China, the lower the perceived quality and safety, thereby affecting demand. During the scandal, Chinese consumers tended to buy high-quality dairy products from Europe and Oceania rather than the perceived unreliable dairy products produced by China or neighbouring countries. We conclude that product quality plays a key role in imports and exports when facing food scandals.     

新时代下的中国粮食安全：意义、挑战和对策

[目的]粮食安全始终是治国理政的头等大事。加深认识新时代下粮食安全的新意义,高度重视现阶段我国粮食安全面临的新挑战,并采取有效的应对之策,对于确保新形势下国家粮食安全极为必要。[方法]文章在总结我国粮食安全取得的成就的基础上,基于对新时代下我国粮食安全新意义及新挑战的全面分析,提出确保国家粮食安全的对策建议。[结果]新时代下,粮食安全对支撑国民经济发展,有效解决社会主要矛盾,保障涉粮产业安全乃至国家安全的意义愈加凸显。同时,我国粮食安全也面临资源环境承载力不堪重负、供需区域格局明显失衡、种粮效益整体下滑、"两个市场"粮食供给体系建设存在明显不足等新挑战。[结论]建议做到"六个统筹",即统筹口粮安全与食物总体安全、统筹粮食安全与涉粮产业发展安全、统筹国内国外两种资源与两个市场、统筹主产区与非主产区粮食发展、统筹国内农业保护与国内农产品市场的对外开放、统筹供给与储备调节能力建设。     

The effects of China's growth on the food prices and the food exports of other developing countries

This article explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products along two dimensions: food price inflation and export growth in other developing countries. China's food imports of vegetable oils have grown dramatically over the last decade, linking China's economic growth to the recent increases in global food prices. If China is a source of global food price inflation, exporting countries will benefit whether they sell directly to China or not. These direct and indirect linkages are explored using a short‐run, partial‐equilibrium model of international trade in agricultural products in which consumer prices and trade costs are derived from bilateral trade flows. China's effects on food prices and exports are estimated by reducing Chinese food expenditures in 2007 by half, roughly China's level of expenditures in 1995. Results indicate that food prices as measured by CES price indexes in developing Asia, Africa, and Latin America would have been reduced by 1.27%, 0.32%, and 0.22%, respectively. China has been an important source of growth for exporters selling directly to China. There is no evidence of export growth due to an overall increase in food prices caused by China's growth.     

平衡膳食模式视角下粮食需求预测

[目的]随着时代的进步和社会经济的发展,对粮食安全内涵的理解也在逐步深化,粮食安全内涵不仅包括数量方面,还包括营养健康安全,保障居民营养健康成为粮食安全的新时代内涵。基于营养目标的粮食需求研究,建立营养—消费—生产的粮食生产模式,对引导居民合理健康消费和保障粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。[方法]文章首先分析了我国城乡居民营养消费状况,然后基于平衡膳食模式视角,引入标准人消费系数这一概念对我国未来粮食需求进行了更准确的预测。[结果]城镇居民粮食消费已达到高营养目标,但目前农村居民仅达到低营养目标水平,相当于21世纪初的城镇消费水平;考虑人口结构因素,2020年和2030年粮食需求总量分别为4.8亿t和5.6亿t,比没有考虑人口结构变化时分别减少8700万t和2 600万t。[结论]根据分析结果,提出以下几点政策建议:(1)宣传普及营养健康消费知识,引导居民合理膳食;(2)关注人口结构变动,及时调整粮食安全调控机制;(3)优化食品工业的产业机构升级,提高饲料粮转化率。     

Quantifying the impact of farmers' social networks on the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies in agriculture

To reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, farmers need to change current farming practices. However, farmers' climate change mitigation behaviour and particularly the role of social and individual characteristics remains poorly understood. Using an agent-based modelling approach, we investigate how knowledge exchange within farmers' social networks affects the adoption of mitigation measures and the effectiveness of a payment per ton of GHG emissions abated. Our simulations are based on census, survey and interview data for 49 Swiss dairy and cattle farms to simulate the effect of social networks on overall GHG reduction and marginal abatement costs. We find that considering social networks increases overall reduction of GHG emissions by 45% at a given payment of 120 Swiss Francs (CHF) per ton of reduced GHG emissions. The per ton payment would have to increase by 380 CHF (i.e., 500 CHF/tCO₂eq) to reach the same overall GHG reduction level without any social network effects. Moreover, marginal abatement costs for emissions are lower when farmers exchange relevant knowledge through social networks. The effectiveness of policy incentives aiming at agricultural climate change mitigation can hence be improved by simultaneously supporting knowledge exchange and opportunities of social learning in farming communities.     

Policy reform and farmers' wheat allocation in rural China: a case study*

Market‐oriented policy reforms often have important effects on farm‐level grain production and utilisation decisions in developing countries. China's grain farmers are of particular interest because of China's importance in world grain markets and because of China's recent major agricultural policy advances and retrenchments. An empirical evaluation of market liberalisation among farmers located in two provinces in China on farm‐level wheat consumption, market sales and on‐farm storage during 1994 is presented. The results indicate that policymakers should account for such changes in farm household behaviour in designing and assessing the consequence of market liberalisation programs for agricultural sectors in developing countries.     

Agricultural production and children's diets: evidence from rural Ethiopia

We study the relationship between pre‐school children's food consumption and household agricultural production. Using a large household survey from rural Ethiopia, we find that increasing household production diversity leads to considerable improvements in children's dietary diversity. However, we also document how this nonseparability of consumption and production does not hold for households that have access to food markets. These findings imply that nutrition‐sensitive agricultural interventions that push for market integration are likely to be more effective in reducing under‐nutrition than those promoting production diversity.     

Increasing agricultural productivity while reducing greenhouse gas emissions in sub‐Saharan Africa: myth or reality?

The motivation for this study stems from two major concerns that are interlinked. The first is the decades long food insecurity crisis faced by sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries which is still prevalent. The second is the negative impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture may have on future food production and which is likely to worsen the food insecurity problem. The conundrum SSA farmers face is how to increase food output through productivity growth while minimizing GHG emissions. To measure changes in productivity growth and GHG emissions, this study evaluates the agricultural performance of 18 SSA countries by utilizing the Malmquist–Luenberger index to incorporate good and bad outputs for the years 1980–2012. The empirical evidence demonstrates that productivity is overestimated when bad outputs are not considered in the production model. The analysis provides a better understanding of the effectiveness of previous mitigation methods and which informs an appropriate course of action needed to achieve the twin objectives of increasing agriculture productivity while reducing GHG emissions.     

Scale Economies,Technical Efficiency,and the Sources of Total Factor Productivity Growth of Quebec Dairy Farms

Canada's average cost for milk production is among the highest in the world. This paper focuses on specific potential causes by estimating economies of scale and technical efficiency for a panel of Quebec dairy farms that spans the 2001–10 period. Additionally, this paper investigates the sources of total factor productivity growth. The stochastic frontier analysis, based on an input‐distance function, is used to estimate returns to scale relationships across dairy farms. The results show that there is significant economies scale to be exploited and that cost of production could also be reduced by improving technical efficiency. Accordingly, the paper indicates that input‐mix effect is the main source of total factor productivity growth. The results have important implications for Canada's supply management policy, and more specifically for the trading of production quota between dairy farmers, as well as for the delivery of targeted extension services.