Anonymous sequential games with aggregate uncertainty

In this paper we extend a result of Jovanovic and Rosenthal (Anonymous sequential games, Journal of Mathematical Economics 17, 1988) on the existence of equilibrium in Anonymous Sequential Games. Jovanovic and Rosenthal prove existence in the case where the aggregate distribution of agents' characteristics evolves nonstochastically - the case of ‘no aggregate uncertainty’. Here we show how aggregate uncertainty can be introduced into the model (so the aggregate distribution evolves stochastically) and extend the Jovanovic-Rosenthal existence theorem to this case.     

The latin model of welfare: Do ‘insertion contracts’ reduce long-term dependence?

This paper aims to present an assessment of the welfare policies implemented in most South European countries. Welfare programs in these countries try to combine a basic level of economic protection and measures favoring life and labor skills (‘insertion benefits’) of low-income households. We focus on a specific program set up with the twofold strategy of cash and ‘insertion benefits’ (Madrid's IMI) and, more precisely, on the so-called ‘insertion projects’, consisting in a gradual mix of job search assistance, training and subsidized jobs. We evaluate the effects of these ‘insertion projects’ on welfare recidivism and the duration of off-welfare spells using propensity score-matching methods. Our results suggest that propensity score estimators appear to reduce selectivity due to non-random participation. Both recidivism rates as well as the duration of off-welfare spells suggest potentially successful interventions.     

Dynamic programming for non-additive stochastic objectives

We derive the existence of an optimum and the techniques of dynamic programming for non-additive stochastic objectives. Our key assumption for non-negative objectives is that asymptotic impatience exceeds asymptotic ‘mean’ growth, where ‘mean’ growth is derived not only from intertemporal inelasticity and the random return on investment but also from the curvature of the non-additive stochastic aggregator (i.e. the ‘certainty equivalent’). We provide broad families of new, interesting, and tractable examples. They illustrate that ‘mean’ growth can exist even when the distribution of returns has unbounded support, that power discounting often implies infinite asymptotic impatience, and that non-positive objectives are easily handled with few restrictions on growth.     

Linear-quadratic approximation, external habit and targeting rules

We examine the linear-quadratic approximation of nonlinear dynamic stochastic optimization problems. A discrete-time version of Magill [1977a. A local analysis of N-sector capital accumulation under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Theory 15(2), 211–219] is generalized to models with forward-looking variables paying special attention to second-order conditions. This is the ‘large distortions’ case in the literature. We apply the approach to monetary policy in a DSGE model with external habit in consumption. We then develop a condition for ‘target-implementability’, a concept related to ‘targeting rules’. Finally, we extend the approach to a comparison between cooperative and non-cooperative equilibria in a two-country model and show that the ‘small distortions’ approximation is inappropriate for this exercise.     

A Hotelling model with a ceiling on the stock of pollution

Environmental agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol aim to stabilize the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, which is mainly caused by the burning of nonrenewable resources such as coal. We characterize the solution to the textbook Hotelling model when there is a ceiling on the stock of emissions. We consider both increasing and decreasing demand for energy. We show that when the ceiling is binding, both the low-cost nonrenewable resource and the high-cost renewable resource may be used jointly. A key implication is that if energy demand were to decline in the long run, we may supplement energy supply through ‘clean’ renewables to meet the environmental standard, but then revert back to using only ‘dirty’ fossil fuels in the future when the ceiling has become non-binding. That is, the much heralded societal ‘transition’ to clean energy resources may be short-lived.     

Site competence dynamics in international manufacturing networks: instrument development and a test in Eastern European factories

The objective of this paper is to introduce an instrument that enables the measurement of dynamics in the roles of factories in international networks. Starting from Ferdows’ framework on strategic factory roles, a clear definition and more precise operationalization of ‘site competence’ is provided. Our proposed instrument is tested in a context, being the Eastern European factories of Dutch multinationals, where it is plausible to expect changes in the strategic factory roles over time. This test comprises four exploratory case studies that provide the basis for future, more extensive empirical work. At the same time, they contribute to the under-researched area of company and industry case studies with respect to the international context of operations management.     

Towards a common understanding of the differences between purchasing, procurement and commissioning in the UK public sector

This paper recognises that commissioning has now become an important term in the lexicon of UK public policy but the term ‘commissioning’ is taking on a different meaning than that traditionally used within the purchasing and supply management community. The frequent inter-changeability of the terms ‘commissioning’, ‘procurement’ and ‘purchasing’ is now causing confusion and means different things to different people. Therefore the academic community needs to help practitioners understand the differences and implications. A document analysis of various UK Central Government departments’ commissioning frameworks was used to establish the key themes and compare commissioning, procurement and purchasing. This paper discusses the similarities and differences, and argues that commissioning is different from procurement, but that commissioning offers major opportunities for Procurement practitioners to make a strategic contribution.     

Institutional investors, antitakeover defenses and success of hostile takeover bids

In this study we investigate the question of whether institutional investors enhance or reduce efficiency in the market for corporate control. In particular, given unequivocal evidence that target stockholders gain in successful takeover bids, we investigate the impact of institutional ownership in target firms on the adoption of the type of antitakeover defense as well as the outcome of takeover bids. We find that target firms are more likely to adopt value-reducing antitakeover defenses and successfully thwart takeover bids when a higher percentage of target common stock is owned by ‘pressure-indeterminate’ investors (investment counsel firms in particular). On the other hand, the probability of a successful takeover rises with the ownership of both ‘pressure-sensitive’ and ‘pressure-resistant’ investors. The above findings support the view that institutional investors do not play a homogeneous role in the market for corporate control.     

Implementing property tax reforms in Bangalore: an actor-network perspective

Many municipal governments in developing countries are experiencing serious difficulties in dealing with the rapid growth of population in cities. Catalysed through processes of globalisation, the growth of cities, especially the so-called ‘mega-cities’, has not been matched by investments in infrastructure like roads and power due to the inability of local government organizations to collect adequate revenues from sources like property tax. Recognizing these difficulties, agencies such as the Asian Development Bank have initiated systems for property tax reforms in a number of Asian cities, including Bangalore. In this paper, we discuss the story of this reform process drawing upon the actor-network perspective on translations. We argue that such a perspective helps to go beyond studying innovation processes through the lens of ‘technology diffusion’, and provides a more interesting and insightful perspective of ‘technology translation’.     

The ‘science’ and ‘practice’ of HRM in small firms

This paper looks at the ‘science’ and ‘practice’ of human resource management in small firms. While there is growing evidence that the practice of human resource management in small firms is characterized by informality, there is less evidence about the science, or explaining why this is the case. We look to writing on strategic human resource management, which has at its heart the resource based view of the firm, for possibilities offered to understanding the science of human resource management in small firms.     

Theoretical tests of the rational expectations hypothesis in economic dynamical models

This paper examines different theoretical stability tests of infinite-horizon rational expectations equilibria. These ‘tests’ have different status: two of them express that the considered equilibrium is ‘isolated’ [neither (non-sunspot) equilibria (test 1) nor (well-behaved) sunspot equilibria exist in a neighbourhood (test 2)] and two of them are learning criteria [either standard ‘evolutive learning’ (test 3) or game-theoretical ‘eductive’ learning (test 4)]. Surprisingly, these four tests select the same steady state equilibria in the class of one-dimensional one-step-forward looking economic models. The extension of this equivalence theorem to n-dimensional and then more complex systems is discussed.     

Social dumping and relocation: is there a case for imposing a social clause?

Public opinion in Europe seems worried about the relocation of production plants toward low wage countries often accused of practicing ‘social dumping’. To reduce the incentives for relocation trade unions proposed the adoption of ‘social clauses’ protecting domestic markets from commodities produced in countries where minimal labor condition are not met. We analyze the effects of the adoption of a social clause in a vertically differentiated Bertrand duopoly. We assess how such a policy affects firms’ relocation decisions in order to be able to assess its welfare implications. We also characterize the optimal social clause policy, both under domestic welfare maximization, and from an efficiency point of view. While we show that a social clause policy cannot be dismissed on domestic (or world) welfare grounds, its case is weaker the higher is the domestic wage and the lower is the foreign wage.     

When does coordination pay?

In a continuous-time model of two symmetric open economies, with a floating exchange rate, we find that the pay-off to macroeconomic policy coordination depends systematically on how heterogeneous is their inflation experience. While monetary policy coordination improves welfare in handling a common rate of underlying inflation, it exacerbates the ‘time consistency’ problem arising when there are differences (as is illustrated diagrammatically). Since the principle of ‘certainty equivalence’ applies to time-consistent policy in linear quadratic models, we are also able to give a stochastic interpretation of the deterministic results.     

Aggregate stock market behavior and investors’ low risk aversion

This paper studies whether investors’ high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that is able to explain aggregate stock market behavior in the US financial market. We present a consumption-based asset pricing model with a representative agent who has a ‘catching up with the Joneses’ preference to show that high risk aversion can be avoided in a representative-agent model that can help explain many of the empirically observed properties of the aggregate stock market return, including the equity premium and risk-free rate puzzles, the predictability of long-horizon stock returns, and the ‘leverage effect’ in return volatility.     

Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability

Several papers have documented a regime switch in US monetary policy from ‘passive’ and destabilizing in the pre-1979 period to ‘active’ and stabilizing afterwards. These studies typically work with DSGE models with rational expectations.This paper relaxes the assumption of rational expectations and allows for learning instead. Economic agents form expectations from simple models and update the parameters through constant-gain learning. In this setting, the paper aims to test whether monetary policy may have been a source of macroeconomic instability in the 1970s by inducing unstable learning dynamics.The model is estimated by Bayesian methods. The constant-gain coefficient is jointly estimated with the structural and policy parameters in the system.The results show that monetary policy was respecting the Taylor principle also in the pre-1979 period and, therefore, did not trigger macroeconomic instability.     

Export restraints in a model of trade with capital accumulation

This paper examines the impact of voluntary export restraints (VERs) in an international duopoly modeled as a differential game. With a Ramsey capital accumulation dynamics, the game admits multiple steady states, and a VER cannot be ‘voluntarily’ employed by the foreign firm in case of Cournot behavior in demand substitutes. Hence, the dynamic framework confirms the results of the VERs literature with static interaction in output levels. In the case of price behavior, the adoption of an export restraint may increase the profits of both firms if products are substitutes and the steady state is ‘market-driven’. However, contrary to the acquired wisdom based upon the static approach, the dynamic analysis also admits an equilibrium outcome, identified by the Ramsey golden rule, where the incentive to adopt a VER is ruled out, irrespective of whether firms are quantity- or price-setters.     

Modeling monetary policy as an unobserved variable

This paper presents a model of the U.S. Monetary Authority. It is assumed that monetary policy is a single dimensioned unobserved variable that links changes in a set of ‘causal’ variables representing economic goals and changes in money market ‘indicator’ variables. Several issues are examined pertaining to the weights attached to the causal variables including: the lag structure, changes over time, and asymmetric effects of positive and negative changes. As a by product of the model, the paper presents an estimated index of monetary policy for the years 1955–1975.     

Neighbors’ income distribution: economic segregation and mixing in US urban neighborhoods

The paper describes within-neighborhood economic segregation in US metropolitan areas in 1985 and 1993. It uses the neighborhood clusters of the American housing survey, standardized by metropolitan area income and household size, to explore income distribution within neighborhoods at a scale much smaller than the census tract (a representative sample of households or ‘kernels’ and their 10 closest neighbors). Joint and conditional distributions portray neighbors’ characteristics conditional on the kernel’s housing tenure, race, and income. The paper documents both significant income mixing in the majority of US urban micro neighborhoods and the extent of income mixing within neighborhoods of concentrated poverty.     

Inside the queue:: hypercongestion and road pricing in a continuous time–continuous place model of traffic congestion

This paper develops a continuous-time–continuous-place dynamic economic model of traffic congestion, based on car-following theory. The model integrates two archetype congestion technologies used in the economics literature: ‘static flow congestion’ and ‘dynamic bottleneck congestion.’ With endogenous departure times and a bottleneck along the route, ‘hypercongestion’ arises as a dynamic equilibrium phenomenon on the upstream road segment. Congestion tolls based on an intuitive dynamic and space-varying generalization of the standard Pigouvian tax rule can hardly be improved upon. A naïve application of a toll schedule based on Vickrey's bottleneck model performs much worse and reduces welfare in the numerical model.     

A note on comparative statics and stochastic dominance

This is a bibliographical note which points out the applicability of some existing results to the development of a sort of Stochastic Dominance ‘algebra’. The ‘more risk averse’ relation of Ross (1981) is established within a general framework.