DSGE模型框架下我国货币政策规则的比较分析

货币政策规则是中央银行为了保持通货膨胀和产出稳定并使经济更快发展所使用的货币政策的指导原则。目前,通行于各个国家的货币政策规则主要有利率规则和货币供应量规则。过去一段时间以来,西方发达国家都已逐渐从货币供应量规则过渡到利率规则,而在我国不管是应用方面还是理论研究方面,对于哪一个货币政策规则更适合我国始终都还没有定论。因此,本文试图在DSGE模型的框架下,对我国的货币政策规则进行比较分析。结果得出,相比于货币供应量规则,利率规则下:(1)货币政策更有效;(2)技术冲击所引起的通货膨胀和产出波动更小;(3)技术冲击对通货膨胀和产出的影响更短暂。因此,研究得出,我国更适合使用利率的货币政策规则。     

Monetary Policy Rules with Model and Data Uncertainty

In this paper we examine the prevalence of data, specification, and parameter uncertainty in the formation of simple rules that mimic monetary policymaking decisions. Our approach is to build real-time data sets and simulate a real-time policy-setting environment in which we assume that policy is captured by movements in the actual federal funds rate, and then to assess what sorts of policy rule models and what sorts of data best explain what the Federal Reserve actually did. This approach allows us not only to track the performance of alternative rules over time (hence facilitating a type of model selection among competing rules), but also to more generally assess the importance of the data revision process in the formation of macroeconomic time series models. From the perspective of real-time data, our results suggest that the use of data that are erroneous, in the sense that they were not available at the time decisions could have been made based on forecasts from the rules, can lead to the selection of quantitatively different models. From the perspective of finding a rule that best approximates what the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) has actually done (and hence from the perspective of finding a rule that best approximates what the Fed will do in the future), we find that (i) our version of “calibration” is better than naïve estimation, although both are dominated by an approach to rule formation based on the use of adaptive least-squares learning; (ii) rules based on data that are not seasonally adjusted are more reliable than those based on seasonally adjusted data; and (iii) rules based solely on preliminary data do not minimize mean square forecast error risk. In particular, early releases of data can be noisy, and for this reason it is useful to also use data that have been revised when making decisions using policy rules.     

中国货币政策的福利损失与政策规则选择——基于新凯恩斯DSGE模型的分析

本文在新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型框架下,运用福利损失函数和脉冲响应方法研究我国最优货币政策规则选择的问题。研究结果表明,货币供应量规则相对于利率规则,使外生冲击对产出和通货膨胀的影响更持久,造成更大的福利损失,因此中央银行的货币政策规则应该逐步从货币供应量规则转向利率规则;在一定条件下,前瞻型利率规则、后顾型利率规则和泰勒规则所造成的福利损失相差不大,从便利的角度出发,中央银行应该选择后顾型利率规则。     

Queueing problems with two parallel servers

Agents are waiting for their jobs to be processed at a service facility. All agents need the same processing time but have different waiting costs per unit of time. The facility has two parallel servers and can serve two agents at a time. We are interested in finding the order in which to serve agents and the (positive or negative) monetary transfers they should receive. We introduce two rules, the "minimal transfer rule" and the "maximal transfer rule". We show that they correspond to the Shapley (1953) values of associated queueing games, for two alternative definitions of the worth of a coalition. The two-server queueing games correspond to the games similarly defined by Maniquet (2003) and Chun (2006a) for one server. If the worth of a coalition is defined by assuming that the coalitional members are served before the non-coalitional members, then the minimal transfer rule is obtained. If it is defined by assuming that the coalitional members are served after the non-coalitional members, then the maximal transfer rule is obtained.     

论国际商事合同的解释

合同解释是指当合同双方的共同合意无法通过证据证明时,法官或仲裁员运用一定的解释的原则、规则对合同文本及其相关资料进行合理的、具有法律拘束力的阐释。在国际商事合同的解释过程中,由于各国的合同解释原则、规则都具有差异性,因此可能会发生合同解释的法律冲突和法律适用问题。本文认为,合同解释作为合同中一个相对独立的法律问题,其法律适用规则也应是相对独立的。合同解释首先适用当事人选择的支配合同解释的专门法律规则,其次适用合同准据法中合同的解释规则。     

On Determinacy and Learnability in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment

We analyse determinacy and stability under learning (E‐stability) of rational expectations equilibria in a new Keynesian model of inflation and unemployment, where labour market frictions due to costs of hiring workers play an important role. We derive results for alternative specifications of monetary policy rules and alternative values of hiring costs as a percentage of gross domestic product. We find that in general the region of indeterminacy and E‐instability in the policy space increases with hiring costs. Thus, higher hiring costs – consistent with European and South African “sclerotic” labour market institutions – seem to play an important part in explaining inflation and unemployment instability. Moreover, under lagged data‐based rules, the area where monetary policy delivers both determinacy and E‐stability shrinks. These rules also perform worse according to these two dimensions when hiring costs go up. Finally, under expectations‐based rules an additional explosive region is introduced. For South Africa, a rule based on current data – not unlike the original Taylor rule – works better than a forward‐looking rule.     

Electoral rules and free trade agreements as a campaign issue: The case of political disputes over the Trans-Pacific Partnership in Japan

This study empirically examines what drives candidates to oppose a free trade agreement (FTA), focusing on the difference in electoral rules and progress of FTA negotiations. We use as case studies Japan's 2013 and 2016 Upper House elections, a main issue of which was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Candidates’ promises about the TPP are unrelated to whether they run for one-seat, multi-seat, or proportional representation constituencies. Candidates who have more rival candidates belonging to the same party are less supportive of the TPP, whereas candidates who face fiercer competition with rival candidates of other parties are more supportive. This result, however, is not observed after the conclusion of the TPP negotiations. The presence of agriculture in local economies relates to candidates’ opposition of the TPP before the conclusion of negotiations, but not thereafter. Conversely, candidates’ stances on the TPP are affected by their parties’ policies and own ideologies regardless of the different stages of promoting the TPP. These results indicate that the major determinants of candidates’ positions toward an FTA vary according to the changes in circumstances surrounding the FTA.     

美国“本国货币规则”析评

本国货币规则是指法院对诉讼请求为支付外国货币的案件做出判决时,必须将外国货币转换为本国货币予以判决的规则。本国货币规则主要存在于英美法系,大陆法系少有。美国本国货币规则的渊源未形成定论;其转换基准日有多种规则,常根据汇率发生变化。美国本国货币规则中蕴涵了国家货币主权、有利于美元的国际地位等国家利益;但其又存在着歧视外国货币、违背合同的意思自治原则、阻碍国际经济交往的内在缺陷。本国货币规则体现的国家主权理念和对国家利益的捍卫值得我国借鉴。     

乡村民主建设的文化羁绊及对策

改革开放以来,我国乡村民主建设取得了巨大成绩,但也存在不少问题,诸如民主意识还不够高、程序操作不够规范、法治意识普遍不强、经济管理不够民主等。究其原因,无疑是错综复杂的,而从文化的视角考察,主要有消极＂亚文化＂沉渣泛起、乡民＂原子化＂意识抬头、乡村封建伦理的流毒和影响、村民骨子里的自卑心理等因素的存在和交织。因此,要进一步促进乡村民主政治建设,就必须大力加强社会主义道德观宣传,切实加强乡村法治建设,努力发展乡村教育和福利事业,挖掘、汲取乡村习俗精华,适时转变乡镇政府职能,充分发挥乡村人才的积极作用,等等。     

构建和谐农村视域中的农民法治教育——徐州农民法治意识调查的启示

和谐农村建设要求农民具有相应的法治意识和法律行为模式，但调查结果显示，当前我国农民对法与法治的认知、信任、依赖、尊崇的状况及其行为模式还不符合以法治为内在要求和保障的和谐农村构建的需要。我们必须充分认识农民法治教育的重要性和紧迫性，明确农民法治教育的目标，紧紧围绕社会主义法治国家、和谐社会、新农村建设的要求，坚持以人为本的原则，贴近农村实际、了解农民需要，确定重心、丰富形式、拓宽渠道、健全机制，把法律知识的普及统摄于法治理想及其价值目标的宣扬之下，传播正确的法治理念，帮助农民树立法治意识、养成依法办事的习惯。     

Who Benefits from Inconsistent Multinational Tax Transfer‐Pricing Rules?*

This paper uses a strategic tax compliance model to examine taxpayer reporting and tax authority audit strategies in an international setting with two tax authorities. The setting features both information asymmetry between the taxpayer and the tax authorities and inconsistent tax transfer‐pricing rules. The latter creates the possibility of each country trying to tax the same income. We study the effect of the probability of transfer‐price rule inconsistency on the strategies and payoffs of the taxpayer and the tax authorities. We find that an increase in the probability of transfer‐price rule inconsistency induces more aggressive auditing by governments. It therefore deters taxpayers from shifting income to the country with the lower tax rate in situations in which the transfer‐pricing rules are consistent, and can either increase or decrease the income reported to the low‐tax‐rate country in cases in which the transfer‐pricing rules are inconsistent. We find that an increase in transfer‐price rule inconsistency could either increase or decrease the taxpayer's expected tax liability and could either increase or decrease the deadweight loss from auditing. Our results call into question the conventional wisdom that the prospect of double taxation due to transfer‐price rule inconsistency increases a firm's expected tax liability and governments' expected audit costs.     

基于Apriori算法的产品众筹项目超额融资率影响因素研究

利用京东众筹平台的1 031个产品众筹项目，通过Apriori关联规则算法得到众筹项目的各属性与超额融资率之间的关联规则。研究发现：目标筹集金额与超额融资率之间存在紧密的关联关系；超额融资率与各档金额的设定没有必然的关联关系；在支持人数偏低、点赞人数偏低的情形下，电子科技类产品不易获得较高的超额融资率，这与目标筹集金额的设定没有必然的关联关系；各档支持人数与超额融资率之间存在紧密的关联关系。研究结论对于提高产品众筹超额融资率，进而提升众筹项目成功率具有重要意义。     

Can exchange rate rules be better than interest rate rules?

We develop a New Keynesian small open economy model to compare the welfare performances of two classes of monetary policy rules: exchange rate rules and interest rate rules. The expected lifetime utility of the representative household is used as the welfare criterion. The model is solved using second-order approximation methods. We find that under benchmark parameterization, an exchange rate rule delivers lower standard deviations of GDP and inflation compared to an interest rate rule, when the economy has a high degree of openness. However, despite that, an exchange rate rule is welfare inferior to an interest rate rule since it delivers lower mean terms of trade, which leads to lower mean consumption and higher mean labor hours. On the other hand, when the elasticity of substitution for export is high, an exchange rate rule is welfare superior to an interest rate rule, regardless of the degree of openness, as the differences in mean terms of trade for the two classes of rules become smaller.     

城市规划中有关港口规划的法律问题

港口与城市之间存在密切的关系,港口规划与城市规划也紧密相关。在港口规划中引入民主、参与机制是法治化进程的必然要求。然而,我国目前港口规划存在着诸多法律问题。规划、审批机制错位、参与虚置及相关制度不健全(如环保、监督、责任机制不健全)等,这些问题的存在使得港口规划难以适应城市健康发展的需要,更不符合增进公民富祉的法治诉求。因此,应加强对港口规划的法律规制,通过严格控制规划权行使资格及权限,建立有效的参与机制、听证制度等使规划程序民主化,同时还应建立有效的救济机制以保护公民的权利免受其害。     

Assessing Debt Sustainability in a Stochastic Environment: 200 Years of Dutch Debt and Deficit Management

When debt levels approach critical levels, tax payers may revolt against the associated debt service burden. Funding problems may arise in capital markets when lenders anticipate such revolts and refuse to participate in debt auctions. We provide a stochastic framework to assess whether such problems may arise and argue that the key to fiscal sustainability in a stochastic environment is a feedback rule from debt level shocks back to corresponding adjustments in the primary surplus. We show that such feedback rules narrow future distributions of debt–output ratios and so reduce crisis probabilities. We apply the methodology to Dutch debt and deficit data spanning two centuries. Our results strongly argue for the incorporation of rules stipulating tightening fiscal policy whenever debt stocks exceed previously agreed upon targets (like in the original Eurozone Stability pact).     

企业技术创新系统组织错误界定与分类研究

组织错误是企业技术创新失败的潜在根源。从论域、判别对象和判别规则三方面提炼了企业技术创新系统组织错误的基本特点,明确指出组织错误是技术创新管理行为的失效,然后通过分析企业技术创新体系的构成要素,将复杂多样的技术创新管理行为纳入到由决策、资源、组织和规则四大系统构成的组织因素分析范式,最后提出了由系统层、指标层和模式层构成的组织错误三级分类框架模型,并设置了相应的判别规则,为进一步识别组织错误提供分析思路。     

The Economic Consequences of Perk Disclosure

In December 2006, the SEC issued new rules requiring enhanced disclosure by public U.S. firms of perquisites granted to their executives. The rules applied to perquisites granted in fiscal year 2006 and thereafter. Because the rules were implemented quickly, the perks disclosed for 2006 reflect the arrangements firms made under prior disclosure rules: firms could not revise perks to reflect the new rules until 2007. For firms that disclose for the first time in 2006, we predict and find that perks decrease in 2007, reflecting both the costs of increased disclosure and enhanced monitoring. This decrease in perks is offset by higher levels of non‐perk compensation, however. We also predict and find that the effect of perk disclosure by formerly non‐disclosing firms in 2006 leads to higher perks in 2007 for firms that were disclosing perks prior to the rule change.     

高校科研管理中的数据挖掘技术及应用

高校信息系统中存储了丰富的教学、科研、管理等各方面的信息,数据内容丰富,范围广泛。本文将关联规则数据挖掘方法应用于高校科技统计相关数据中,依据挖掘的目的和数据特点,设计挖掘系统。通过挖掘教师教学科研数据,以期得到教师教学科研工作的潜在规则,辅助决策下一阶段的科研管理工作。     

Origins of the financial crisis and requirements for reform

This paper examines the causes of the global financial crisis (focusing in particular on why residential mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps exploded from around 2004) and the policy reform agenda. Arbitrage opportunities in capital rules and the tax system were available, and changes in regulations affecting the leverage of international banks (IBs) played a key role in allowing these opportunities to be exploited on a greater scale. Changes to the Basel rules also actively contributed to the sharp rise in toxic securities. The policy agenda focuses on the need to deal with toxic assets, and for broader reforms to incentive structures, not only of capital rules, but also of corporate governance and banking structures. Specific policy reform recommendations are made. Recent numbers on the capital needs of banks suggest that we are not very far into the process of dealing with the crisis, and lack of transparency in this respect is a major issue in Europe. The longer-run reform process too is not focusing on the ideal building blocks.     

Extended social ordering functions for rationalizing fair allocation rules as game forms in the sense of Rawls and Sen

We examine the possibility of constructing social ordering functions, each of which associates a social ordering over the feasible pairs of allocations and allocation rules with each simple production economy. Three axioms on the admissible class of social ordering functions are introduced, which embody the values of procedural fairness, non-welfaristic egalitarianism, and welfaristic consequentialism, respectively. The logical compatibility of these axioms and their lexicographic combinations subject to constraints are examined. Two social ordering functions that give priority to procedural values rather than to consequential values are identified. These two can uniformly rationalize a nice allocation rule in terms of the values of procedural fairness, non-welfaristic egalitarianism, and Pareto efficiency.