Labor allocation in transition: Evidence from Chinese rural households

Empirical models are developed in this paper to quantitatively analyze households' participation in decisions on hiring labor and supplying labor off the farm, hired labor demand and off-farm labor supply of rural Chinese households. Econometric estimates use micro-level data from Zhejiang province over the period 1995–2002. The main results suggest that the decisions to hire labor and participate off the farm are made jointly and are positively correlated. A household's labor demand decreases with increasing wages for hired labor, whereas the effect of the wages of off-farm workers on a household's labor supply differs significantly depending on the household's kind of labor market participation. The results also indicate that the accumulation of productive assets, the development of livestock production and agricultural prices have increasing effects on labor demand but reducing effects on a household's off-farm labor supply. Land market integration enhances participation significantly but has no significant impact on time allocation. Finally, the results suggest non-separability between hired labor demand and household characteristics, indicating the rural labor market in Zhejiang province is still functioning imperfectly.     

Increasing wage,mechanization, and agriculture production in China

As the population bonus disappeared, the wage rate has increased significantly since the early 2000s in China. Increasing wages have significantly affected export-oriented industries as well as agriculture. Mechanization is another factor affecting China's agriculture. This study shows the increasing wage and the mechanization have a negative impact on land area devoted to labor-intensive crops but a positive impact on land area devoted to labor-extensive crops. Based on nationally representative data, the empirical results conform well to the theoretical predictions.     

小农的种粮逻辑——40年来中国农业种植结构的转变与未来策略

基于已有文献对中国粮食安全问题的质疑与担忧,作者回顾了改革开放40年以来我国农业种植结构调整从"去粮化"到"趋粮化"的历史性转变。文章认为,2003年以来中国粮食长期且连续的增长,并非由外生的经济因素直接激发,亦非农业税减免和农业补贴政策的直接诱导,而是由农户在要素流动与卷入农业分工的过程中所内生的自我执行机制来决定的。理论与实证研究表明,中国小农的种粮逻辑是通过要素配置、地权预期、分工深化三个方面来共同表达的。小规模分散化的农业家庭经营格局并不构成中国粮食安全的阻碍,相反,却内含着重要的组织优势与可动员潜力。文章进一步讨论了保障中国粮食安全的基本策略与政策选择。     

Labour market response to globalisation: Spain, 1880–1913

This paper analyses the impact of globalisation (trade and migration) on the Spanish labour market between 1880 and 1913 by examining the influence that globalisation factors had on agricultural and industrial wages. Our results show that the nineteenth century grain invasion had a negative impact on agricultural wages, whereas the fall in wheat prices did not benefit industry workers. We also found that migration pushed up real agricultural and industrial wages. As agriculture was the main sector in the economy, the final impact was a wage decrease. The negative impact of trade on agricultural and industrial labour markets partly explains the trade policy response of “integral protection”. However, other alternatives that would have been effective in raising living standards, such as migration policy, were not used.     

Economic effects of immigrants on native and foreign-born workers: complementarity,substitutability, and other channels of influence

The authors use Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) data constructed from 1980 census microdata files and other sources to estimate a structural model of native/foreign-born labor demand and labor supply which distinguishes the effects upon real wages of each type of labor and on the employment of natives. The authors specify, econometrically estimate, and simulate the structural model which incorporates not only a production structure channel through which immigrants influence area real wages and employment, but also demand and native labor supply channels. It is noted that while these are not the only channels through which immigrants may affect native workers, the model nonetheless constitutes a step in the direction of a general equilibrium approach. In the production structure channel, immigrants and natives are found to be substitutes in production. Immigration lowers foreign-born wage rates and leads to lower wages for natives. The negative effects of the production channel usually are ameliorated through the demand channel. Further, immigrants add to local demand through their earnings and potentially through non-labor income, while also lowering unit costs and local prices which enhances real incomes and potentially net exports, and thus the demands for local output and area labor. The author discusses findings of interest from the simulation results based upon an analysis of all areas.     

Labor force competition and the black-white wage gap

Have the increasing numbers of women and immigrants in the U.S. labor force adversely affected the relative earnings of black men? A recent article in this journal argued that they have, based on empirical analysis of 1970 census data. The present study begins with a critique of both the theoretical assumptions and the empirical methods of this earlier article. A regression analysis of 1980 census data is then undertaken, which indicates that recent immigration has not had a negative impact on the relative wages of central-city black men. The findings also suggest that while higher rates of female labor force participation are statistically associated with lower black-white wage ratios, this effect is limited to teenagers.     

服务业劳动者年龄结构对劳动生产率和工资的影响研究

将年龄结构引入到Cobb-Douglas 生产函数中,采用全国第六次人口普查和全国第七次人口普查的截面数据研究中国服务业劳动者年龄结构对劳动生产率和工资的影响,研究发现不同年龄区间劳动者比重对劳动生产率和工资的影响程度和影响方向存在差异。劳动者数量对劳动生产率影响为负向,16-24 岁、25-34 岁和45-54 岁劳动者比重对劳动生产率产生正向影响,而55-64 岁和65-74 岁对劳动生产率的影响分别由负转正和由正转负。劳动者数量及各年龄段劳动者比重对工资水平产生正向影响。因此,提出对不同行业劳动者教育水平进行合理要求、综合考虑不同年龄段劳动者能力以及给予老年劳动者合适的工作岗位等政策建议。     

货币政策不确定性与企业现金持有——现金股利视角的新解释

研究利用中国A股上市公司样本,系统探讨了货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响.研究发现:随着货币政策不确定性的提高,企业现金持有水平降低.深入研究发现货币政策不确定性对企业现金持有策略的影响主要通过现金股利渠道发挥作用,即在货币政策不确定性较高时期,企业持有的现金更多用于支持现金股利分配,籍此向市场传递积极信号.进一步研究排除了投资机会与代理成本等潜在干扰因素的影响,并且结合产权性质差异的分析发现货币政策不确定性对于非国有企业现金持有策略的影响更为明显.研究一方面基于不确定性视角为货币政策如何影响企业现金管理策略提出了新解释——现金股利渠道,有助于更好地理解我国上市公司的现金持有策略;另一方面也说明货币政策频繁调整所导致的货币政策不确定性很可能是加剧实体经济经营风险的宏观诱因.     

人口流动管制与中国宏观经济波动——基于异质性技能视角分析

人口流动是我国经济的热点问题之一，那么人口流动管制对我国宏观经济波动有什么样的影响?文章在标准RBC一般均衡模型中引入了异质性高低技能劳动，考察了人口流动管制对宏观经济波动的影响。研究发现：（1）劳动人口流动管制对总产出和总消费都有负向影响，会增加低技能工资，降低高技能工资；（2）资本质量冲击、政府购买冲击不仅会使消费和工资水平下降，同时也会造成福利下降，其中单位政府购买冲击会使居民福利下降最大，低技能总福利损失大于高技能总福利损失；（3）通过方差分解发现人口流动冲击能解释产出波动的7.83%和投资波动的5.60%，同时还发现随着经济中高技能比重加大，单位人口流动负冲击对社会福利损失越大。文章基于人口流动管制异质性视角研究得出流动人口管制不利于经济增长和社会总福利，为我国流动人口研究提供了新的研究视角。     

Labor productivity, wages, nationality, and foreign ownership shares in Thai manufacturing, 1996–2000

This paper compares labor productivity and wages among nationality and ownership groups of foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) and local plants in Thai manufacturing for 1996, 1998, and 2000. Disaggregating foreign MNCs by nationality or foreign ownership share revealed a few significant differences in both labor productivity and wages that were not present in more aggregate specifications. In these cases, there was a weak tendency for MNCs from Europe, Japan, and the United States to have relatively high labor productivity and wages, for wholly-foreign MNCs to have relatively high labor productivity, and for majority- and wholly-foreign MNCs to pay relatively high wages. However, these results suggest that the relationships among labor productivity or wages, on the one hand, and nationality or foreign ownership shares, on the other hand, were generally weak in Thai manufacturing. These results are also consistent with those of previous studies in suggesting that the relationship between labor productivity and foreign ownership in general was also rather weak, though the relationship between wages and foreign ownership was somewhat stronger.     

Measuring rural welfare in colonial Africa: did Uganda's smallholders thrive?

Recent scholarship on historical welfare development in Sub‐Saharan Africa has uncovered long‐term trends in standards of living. How the majority of rural dwellers fared, however, remains largely elusive. This study develops a new approach to reconstruct rural living standards in a historical context. It builds upon a well‐established real wage literature, but moves beyond it to capture rural realities, employing sub‐national rural survey, census, and price data. The approach is applied to a case study of colonial and early post‐colonial Uganda (1915–70). The case study yields a number of findings. While the expanding smallholder‐based cash crop sector established itself as the backbone of Uganda's colonial economy, farm characteristics remained largely stagnant after the initial adoption of cash crops. Smallholders maintained living standards well above subsistence level, and while the profitability of cash crops was low, their cultivation provided a reliable source of cash income. Around the time of decolonization, unskilled wages rose rapidly while farm incomes lagged behind. As a result, an urban–rural income reversal took place. The study also reveals considerable differences within Uganda. Smallholders in Uganda's banana regions required fewer labour inputs to maintain a farm income than their grain‐farming counterparts, creating opportunities for additional income generation and livelihood diversification.     

Do Exporting Firms Pay Higher Wages? Evidence from Kenya's Manufacturing Sector

Abstract: When trade liberalization was first embarked on in Kenya some 20 years ago, a key argument against it was that it would reduce domestic wages, as exporting firms sought to remain competitive versus, for example, the low‐cost Asian countries. A counter argument was that manufactured exports require more elaborate design, supervision, packaging and handling, and thus a more educated labor force than production for the domestic market. To attract such skills, exporting firms would need to pay higher wages than non‐exporting ones. This paper uses data from Kenyan manufacturing to study the impact of trade liberalization on earnings, distinguishing between exporting and non‐exporting firms. In particular, it investigates whether exporting firms paid a wage‐premium to their employees. The study uses manufacturing firm survey data from a World Bank regional project. The study has three important findings: (1) There was a large and significant effect of exporting on wages in the first decade of trade liberalization. During the first half of the 1990s, workers in exporting firms earned up to 30 percent more than those engaged in non‐exporting firms. The results are robust even after controlling for individual and firm‐level characteristics such as employee demographics, productivity, firm location and occupation. (2) After a decade of trade liberalization, exporting ceased to be a significant determinant of wages in Kenyan manufacturing, after controlling for productivity and firm location. (3) During the 2000s, casual or irregular employment became a more common feature of exporting firms. The results suggest that while higher wages were important in attracting skilled labor to exporting firms at the beginning of trade liberalization in the 1990s, domestic competition has since reduced the wage premium. Cost cutting pressures are instead reflected in the substitution of casual and low wage labor for permanent and better educated labor and in increased automation.     

COVID-19 impact on firm investment—Evidence from Chinese publicly listed firms

The COVID-19 outbreak had a significant impact on business cash flows and investment activities. This paper examined the COVID-19 impact on Chinese business investment in 3326 A-share listed quarterly financial reports, from which it was found that the negative relationship was more pronounced in the large, eastern Chinese state-owned firms. Using a propensity score matching method and difference-in-differences estimation, corporate financial flexibility was also examined, with the results indicating that high cash flexibility provided a buffer that allowed firms to better deal with adverse external shocks as the firms that had high cash flexibility were able to significantly increase their investments after the COVID-19 outbreak. Various robustness tests were conducted, all of which verified the robustness of the results. Overall, the empirical results provided evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic in China had a negative impact on Chinese listed firms, and verified the vital role of flexible financial reserves for firm survival and development during crises.     

The Effects of Labor Markets and Income Inequality on Crime: Evidence from Panel Data

We estimate a model of crime using panel data for the U.S. We focus on the role of labor markets, income distribution, and demographics on property crime. We find strong evidence that favorable labor market conditions have a significant negative effect on property crime. We further test this result using sector-specific wages and find that crime is most elastic with respect to wages in sectors that use low-skilled labor. We also find that income inequality has no significant effect on crime and that the proportion of young males in the population has a significant positive effect on crime.     

工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响--基于中国地级市数据的实证研究

利用2013-2017年中国286个地级市的面板数据实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对中国制造业就业总量存在显著的负影响,工业机器人渗透度提升1单位将导致制造业就业总量下降3.35个百分点。针对影响制造业就业结构的实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对东部、西部地区有显著的负影响,对中部和东北地区的影响不显著,对制造业细分行业、低技能劳动者和男、女劳动者就业均存在普遍的负影响,对高技能劳动者就业存在正向影响,但不显著。深入研究后发现,工业机器人替代不是导致制造业就业下降的根本原因,而是对制造业就业岗位的补充与延伸。政府在制定针对智能制造的产业政策时,应根据地方制造业劳动供给与企业生产需求进行灵活安排。     

Corporate Endowment Insurance Fee Reduction and Employee Wages: Evidence from China

To stimulate economic growth, the Chinese government implemented three consecutive policies between 2016 and 2019 to reduce the corporate endowment insurance contribution ratio (CEICR), the highest payment item for Chinese companies. Using China's CEICR reduction policies as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper evaluates the impact of corporate payment burden reduction on employee wages. Generally, reducing CEICR appears to prompt companies to increase employee wages. Corporate cash flow is a possible channel of influence. Moreover, the positive effect is found to be more pronounced in companies that are more labor intensive, performing better in labor payment compliance, and located in regions with higher pressure for elderly care. This paper offers evidence in favor of implementing CEICR reduction policies from the perspective of improving the well-being of employees.     

Employment,Wages, and Alcohol Consumption in Russia

This article investigates the association between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes in Russia, using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). It estimates cross-sectional and fixed effects models of the impacts of alcohol consumption on employment and wages for males and females using three different measures of drinking. The cross-sectional findings indicate that alcohol consumption has an inverse U-shaped impact on employment and wages for females. The impact on males appears to be positive but the inverse-U shape is less pronounced. Once the unobserved individual heterogeneity is accounted for using fixed effects, alcohol consumption is found to have no significant effect on employment for either males or females. The fixed effect wage models indicate that alcohol consumption has a small, positive, but linear impact on the wage rate for both males and females. Models including fixed effects generate estimates that are smaller in magnitude compared with those of cross-sectional models. The findings are robust to several diagnostic checks.     

China,Like the US,Faces Challenges in Achieving Inclusive Growth through Manufacturing

For more than three decades the goal of becoming “the factory of the world” has been at the core of China's development strategy. This strategy, in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low rates of consumption, has made Chinese production the most manufacturing intensive in the world. But as its wages have risen, China's competitiveness in the most labor‐intensive manufacturing industries has eroded. Its ability to assemble products remains a major source of its exports, but it has also tried to shift toward more sophisticated value‐added production domestically. Chinese domestic spending has shifted away from investment toward consumption as citizens' income has grown. Like Americans, Chinese are also spending more on services than on manufactured goods. All of these changes are fundamentally altering the structure of China's production, reducing the role of manufacturing and increasing the skill levels of workers in manufacturing. This paper reviews the challenges posed by these developments for China's long‐term goal of achieving more inclusive growth. It presents evidence that the commonly held perceptions that Chinese manufacturing employment growth is robust are wrong. In fact, such growth has peaked and China is now following a pattern of structural change that is typical of a more mature emerging economy, in which the share of employment in manufacturing declines as workers are increasingly employed in services.     

Specialization, outsourcing and wages

This paper studies the impact of outsourcing on individual wages. In contrast to the standard approach in the literature, we focus on domestic outsourcing as well as foreign outsourcing. We argue that if outsourcing is associated with specialization gains arising from an increase in the division of labor, domestic outsourcing tends to increase wages for both unskilled and skilled labor. We use a panel data set of workers in Danish manufacturing industries to show that domestic and foreign outsourcing affect wages as predicted.      

Off-farm employment and time allocation in on-farm work in rural China from gender perspective

This paper sheds light on how the growing number of off-farm employees affects the labor allocation of female and male left-behind farmers in the Chinese agricultural sector. We find no direct effect of off-farm employment on left behind workers' total working time in farming, nor do we observe a gender difference in this respect. However, we do find that increasing off-farm work is associated with fewer days worked on staple crops, and in the harvesting and sales stages of the production process. Hiring labor and buying agricultural services also impact left behind workers' time allocation. Moreover, we find that in China, contrary to several other developing countries, there is no trend towards a feminization of agriculture, but rather a tendency in the reverse direction.