Adjustment Costs and Capital Asset Pricing

Discrete-time models of asset pricing have hitherto generally avoided studying the relationship between the underlying technology inherent in the economy and the determinants of the price of capital. A fully articulated economy is constructed in which there is a nontrivial technology for producing capital. The existence of adjustment costs in augmenting the quantity of capital has interesting implications for the stochastic properties of asset prices, as well as other macroeconomic variables. Examples of such economies are used to illustrate this point.     

Capital Controls and International Capital Market Segmentation: The Evidence from the Japanese and American Stock Markets

The paper focuses on two countries, Japan and the U.S., to test the integration of capital markets. In Japan, the enactment of the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law in December of 1980 amounted to a true regime switch that virtually eliminated capital controls. Using multifactor asset pricing models, we show that the price of risk in the U.S. and Japanese stock markets was different before, but not after, the liberalization. This evidence supports the view that governments are the source of international capital market segmentation.     

Voluntary Causal Disclosures: Tendencies and Capital Market Reaction

In this study, we provide empirical evidence on whether voluntarily disclosed causal attributions made in management earnings forecasts are credible by investigating the conditions under which such attributions are made and the extent to which security price responses are associated with attribution existence. We find that causal attributions are more likely to be made when forecast news is bad (relative to good), and that the type of attribution made is more likely to be external (internal) for bad (good) forecast news. Incorporating the existence and type of attribution into models that explain announcement period three-day cumulative abnormal returns yields significant effects for attribution incidence and type after controlling for unexpected earnings and forecast type (e.g., point, range, etc.). Consistent with the idea that attributions enhance the credibility or precision of management forecasts, attribution disclosure enhances price reactions per dollar of unexpected earnings conveyed in a management forecast.     

Valuation Weights,Linear Dynamics and Accounting Conservatism: An Empirical Analysis

Residual income models provide an important theoretical link between equity valuation and financial statement variables. While various researchers have developed models of how accounting policy impacts on the structure of these models, empirical support for these models is at best weak and frequently contradictory. In this paper, we develop an analytical model, which identifies the dependency between valuation weights in residual income models and the associated structure of earnings information dynamics and accounting conservatism. In contrast to many earlier studies, we find strong evidence of conservatism in our reformulation of the linear dynamics. We proceed to test our predictions of the dependency of the weights on two measures of conservatism, the conventional measure of price‐to‐book ratio and the recent measure of a C‐Score index developed by Khan and Watts (2009) and find that the empirical results accord well with our theoretical predictions in the case of the former but not the latter measure.     

中国资本产出、资本回报与资本流向之谜--基于劳动力价格扭曲视角北大核心

本文通过建立生产部门的要素买方垄断市场均衡模型,利用1996-2016年中国省级面板数据测算中国劳动力价格扭曲程度,并使用固定效应模型(FE)及面板固定效应的工具变量(IV)估计方法加以分析,从劳动力价格扭曲视角解答了中国资本产出、资本回报与资本流向之谜,即中国经济如何在赶超阶段面临资本深化不断加剧和TFP增长乏力的情况下,依靠劳动力价格扭曲实现低资本产出与高资本回报水平共存,从而维持长期高速资本积累以及优质的资本流向结构。实证研究表明:劳动力价格扭曲降低了资本产出效率,但这并不能掩盖由劳动力向资本方转移的垄断利润对资本回报的直接补贴,因此劳动力价格扭曲对中国维持高资本回报水平起到了重要的支撑作用,并通过高资本回报水平实现了地区资本快速积累,劳动力价格扭曲对资本流向的积极作用还体现在抑制资本"脱实向虚"及吸引外资流入。因此,应正视劳动力价格扭曲在赶超阶段的特殊作用,在矫正扭曲的过程中循序渐进,更积极采取措施规避其对资本回报和资本流向可能产生的不利影响。     

Capital Share Risk in U.S. Asset Pricing

A single macroeconomic factor based on growth in the capital share of aggregate income exhibits significant explanatory power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and nonequity asset classes, with risk price estimates that are of the same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive risk premium, commensurate with recent asset pricing models in which redistributive shocks shift the share of income between the wealthy, who finance consumption primarily out of asset ownership, and workers, who finance consumption primarily out of wages and salaries.     

Risk Capital for a Profitable Public Corporation: Public Dividend Capital or Equity?

The question of whether profitable public corporations should be converted to private, equity capital finance (i.e.'privatized', in current U.K. terminology) or not is arguably the dominant issue in the public sector of the U.K. economy. The present U.K. government has embarked upon a policy of privatization of state industries. This has attracted considerable criticism on the grounds that the government's actions are the product of ideological and short-term fiscal considerations (principally the funding of public expenditure) rather than of carefully considered policy (Heald and Steel, 1981; Heald, 1983, p. 154). This topic is examined in this paper. The discussion is neither partisan nor ideological. Instead, it centres on the technical and economic merits of equity capital versus its public sector proxy, Public Dividend Capital (PDC). This latter form of capital financing has been neglected in recent years, as the major thrust of the public sector debate has addressed the need for equity capital in the nationalized industries. Therefore, the ensuing discussion is not only a critique of the case for introducing private equity capital in state industries, but it is also an assessment of the case for the retention of PDC as a major instrument of finance.     

Disclosure Interactions and the Cost of Equity Capital: Evidence From the Spanish Continuous Market

Abstract:  The purpose of this paper is to provide some new evidence on the relationship between disclosure and the cost of equity capital. We propose a new specification for the empirical test based on the idea that in the previous models one crucial variable was missing: accounting policy choice. We test our theoretical hypothesis using a sample of Spanish firms quoted on the Spanish continuous market from 1999 to 2002. We adopt the ex-ante approach to measure the cost of equity capital, taking analysts predictions as a proxy for expected earnings. As an explanatory variable we use an index measuring annual report disclosure quality. This measure of disclosure is combined with a proxy for the accounting policy choice of the firm. We measure firms' conservatism using the modified Jones model of Dechow et al. (1995) to estimate discretionary accruals. Our results confirm that the relationship between disclosure and cost of capital is affected by the choice of accounting policy.     

Venture Capital Distributions: Short-Run and Long-Run Reactions

Venture capital distributions, a legal form of insider trading, provides an ideal arena for examining the share price impact of transactions by informed parties. These sales, which occur after substantial run-ups in share value, generate a substantial price reaction immediately around the event. In the months after distribution, returns apparently continue to be negative. When the short- and long-run reactions are decomposed, they are consistent with the view that venture capitalists use inside information to time stock distributions: Distributions of firms brought public by lower quality underwriters and of less seasoned firms have more negative price reactions.     

Inflation Adjustments to Income in Entry and Exit Price Systems

There are different views on the way in which price level adjustments might be made in the income account. Pratt (1988) noted that adjustments might be made in respect of individual assets or as a single adjustment to the opening capital. Multiple adjustments are commonly believed to be necessary when monetary assets are separated from non-monetary assets. An hypothesis is presented here that may explain why accounting theorists have believed (erroneously) that inflation affects monetary items differently from non-monetary items. Some complexities are considered and questions raised about the appropriateness of definitions of purchasing power and wealth.     

管理者能力与资本市场稳定

管理者能力是管理者有效率地利用企业资源创造价值的能力。本文以企业股价大幅下跌风险为切入点系统分析了管理者能力对资本市场稳定的影响。研究发现:管理者能力能够显著抑制企业未来股价大幅下跌的风险,具有市场稳定效应。这种稳定效应主要体现在管理者隐藏坏消息动机较强和隐藏坏消息空间较大(内部缺乏大股东治理和外部制度环境水平较低)的企业。进一步研究发现,管理者能力主要通过降低企业经营风险和提高企业治理水平等路径缓解企业未来股价大幅下跌的风险。本文丰富了管理者能力和股价下跌风险的研究,还对如何合理利用企业家资源维护我国资本市场平稳健康发展提供了重要的现实证据。     

Presidential Address: Asset Price Dynamics with Slow‐Moving Capital

I describe asset price dynamics caused by the slow movement of investment capital to trading opportunities. The pattern of price responses to supply or demand shocks typically involves a sharp reaction to the shock and a subsequent and more extended reversal. The amplitude of the immediate price impact and the pattern of the subsequent recovery can reflect institutional impediments to immediate trade, such as search costs for trading counterparties or time to raise capital by intermediaries. I discuss special impediments to capital formation during the recent financial crisis that caused asset price distortions, which subsided afterward. After presenting examples of price reactions to supply shocks in normal market settings, I offer a simple illustrative model of price dynamics associated with slow‐moving capital due to the presence of inattentive investors.     

股价信息、价格运动特征与资源配置效率

行为金融学的研究表明,股价不仅受到公司基本价值有关信息的影响,而且还受到市场公共信息的影响。通过研究股票价格运动特征可以有效地判断股价所包含的信息特征,解释股票市场的资源配置效率状况以及市场发育程度。现阶段我国股价还不能传递足够多的企业特定信息,引导资源配置的信号功能较弱,这一结论和对资源配置效率的实证结果相吻合,即股市对金融资源的低效配置问题还相当突出。     

商业银行推行成本管理会计的思考

我国商业银行对成本管理会计不够重视,信息系统基础薄弱,成本资料欠缺,高素质的成本管理会计人才稀缺,内部资金的转移价格难以确定,业绩评价体系的合理性与有效性难以平衡。商业银行要推行成本管理会计就要提高各商业银行职工对成本管理会计重要性和复杂性的认识;尽快建立专门的组织机构,着力培养或引进高素质的专门人才,制定或完善规章制度;实行全面成本管理,实现分部门、分产品、分客户的管理;运用计算机技术,实现业务流程再造;强化利率——产品定价机制,合理确定内部资金转移价格;提高数据质量,建立和完善相关信息系统。     

Debt Finance and Capital Maintenance in Current Cost Accounting

The proper treatment of debt finance in current cost accounting has been the subject of considerable debate in the literature, and there is considerable variation in the official standards issued in different countries. Opposition to making a'gearing adjustment'against income seems to be due in part to doubts as to whether or not such treatment is compatible with physical capital maintenance. This article considers the financing implications of treating debt in this fashion in an entity (a) whose revenue is set at a level to ensure that replacement and financing costs are just covered and (b) which renders accounts on a discounted present value basis. It is shown that as long as debt is treated in a fashion consistent with the concept of'real income'employed there is no problem.     

The Paradox of Financial Fire Sales: The Role of Arbitrage Capital in Determining Liquidity

How can fire sales for financial assets happen when the economy contains well‐capitalized but nonspecialist investors? Our explanation combines rational expectations equilibrium and “lemons” models. When specialist (informed) market participants are liquidity‐constrained, prices become less informative. This creates an adverse selection problem, decreasing the supply of high‐quality assets, and lowering valuations by nonspecialist (uninformed) investors, who become unwilling to supply capital to support the price. In normal times, arbitrage capital can “multiply” itself by making uninformed capital function as informed capital, but in a crisis, this stabilizing mechanism fails.     

Capital account reform and short- and long-run stock price leadership

This paper studies the effect of capital account liberalization policies on the price discovery of cross-listings in Chinese stocks. We construct a non-linear causality framework that decomposes short- and long-run dimensions of price leadership. Our analysis shows that capital account liberalization has had a profound effect on long-run A- and H-price leadership traits. Specifically, increased inward capital movement from Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors strengthens long-term leadership in the mainland A-market. Similarly, increased capital outflow from the Chinese mainland galvanizes long-term price discovery processes in the Hong Kong H-market. We thus offer strong evidence that capital account liberalization promotes stock market efficiency in the long-run. The present study's empirical account also suggests that such capital flows inhibit short-term lead-lag effects.     

Capital Structure Theory and REIT Security Offerings

In this paper, we examine the stock price reactions to announcements of new security offerings by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). REITs offer a unique setting in which to study these events because they do not pay taxes at the firm level. Theory suggests that the net tax gain to corporate borrowing is unambiguously negative for a REIT. Contrary to some recent studies, however, we find a positive stock price reaction to debt offerings, while the negative equity-issuance effect is preserved. Further empirical evidence lends support to signalling as the explanation for the positive significant debt-issuance effect.     

Capital Gains Tax Overhang and Price Pressure

I study whether the capital gains tax is an impediment to selling by some investors and if so, to what degree associated delayed selling affects stock prices. I find that selling decisions by institutions serving tax‐sensitive clients are sensitive to cumulative capital gains, a pattern not observed for institutions with predominantly tax‐exempt clients. Moreover, tax‐related underselling impacts stock prices during large earnings surprises for stocks held primarily by tax‐sensitive investors. The corresponding price reactions are less negative (more positive) with higher cumulative capital gains. This price pressure pattern is more severe when arbitrage is more costly.