From world factory to world investor: the new way of China integrating into the world

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that outward direct investment (ODI) is replacing international trade as the new way China integrates into the world. Based on two complementary datasets, we document the pattern of Chinese ODI. We argue that the rapid growth of China’s ODI is the result of strong economic development, increasing domestic constraints, and supportive government policies. Compared with trade integration, investment integration involves China more deeply in global business. As a new global investor, China’s ODI in the future is full of opportunities, risks, and challenges. The Chinese government should improve bureaucracy coordination and participate more in designing and maintaining international rules to protect ODI interests.     

Does government paternalistic care promote entrepreneurship in China? Evidence from the China Employer-Employee Survey

ABSTRACT

This article examines whether government paternalistic care exerts positive effects on entrepreneurship in China, and the channels through which paternalistic care affects entrepreneurship, using data from the 2015 baseline of the China Employer-Employee Survey (CEES). The data suggests that over 70% of manufacturing firms received at least one type of government paternalistic care, though the distributions are different depending on the firm’s size, ownership, industry, firm and entrepreneur’s age. The empirical analysis indicates that government paternalistic care negatively affects entrepreneurship by diminishing innovation capability. Human capital and imported intermediate goods should be the driving forces for a firm’s development, but government paternalistic care has a counterproductive effect on those two factors, thereby impeding entrepreneurship. The results show that those good intentions have gone awry. The government should gradually terminate its paternalistic policies for firms, and firms need to promote their own solid innovation capability.

Abbreviations: CEES: China Employer-Employee Survey SOE: State-owned enterprise     

Policy Dimensions of Progressive Institutional Change: Lessons from China’s Construction of a Socialist Market Economy

Abstract:

Through a comprehensive review of the progressive institutional change (PIC) literature, I first discuss four possible trajectories of PIC by considering the forces of societal reaction that might frame the path, as well as the scale and scope of the changes. Thus, I pose four questions that need to be asked when related policies are formulated for PIC. To illustrate this method, I scrutinize the evidence from the construction of a socialist market economy by the Chinese government since the 1980s and argue that related policies have successfully promoted PIC from three dimensions: (1) curbing potential conflicts with power groups; (2) promoting a sense of awareness among stakeholders; and (3) minimizing disturbances to the community. Actually, the related changes demonstrate a dynamic “displacement process” for PICs. Despite the success of this sociosystem, it is found that the sustaining of PIC which requires policy factors that enhance instrumental efficiency in the Chinese context will serve as a challenge to the Chinese government ahead.     

Political determinants of intergovernmental transfers in a regionally decentralized authoritarian regime: evidence from China

This article examines the political determinants of the allocation of intergovernmental transfers in the context of China. In a regionally decentralized authoritarian regime, a government marked by political centralization and fiscal decentralization, intergovernmental transfers are employed by politicians as instruments to achieve political goals. Using China’s provincial data from 1994 to 2009, we find that the officials’ political power is an important factor in the distribution process. A party secretary’s replacement facilitates an increase in transfers, especially if the replacement comes from the central government. If a party secretary is a member of the Central Politburo, the province receives more conditional transfers than others. The central government allocates the transfers in such a way that the province with a high proportion of the minority population receives more transfers than others.     

Transnational Depoliticisation and Industrial Policy: The European Commission and French Steel (1980–1984)

ABSTRACT

Following the 2008 financial crash, voices have called governments to re-embrace industrial policy and promote industrial development. Such calls presuppose that the past decades witnessed a relative retreat of activist industrial policies. Within international political economy the latter is explained by the limits posed by the structure of global economic governance and globalisation on the state’s interventionist capacities. This article argues that these constraints have enabled states to pursue the transnational depoliticisation of industrial policy and transfer decision-making responsibilities to spheres lying beyond the governmental arena such as transnational institutions. By appealing to supranational economic rules, governments can disclose their own preferences for certain industrial policies and resist pressures to assist declining activities. To substantiate these claims the article proposes an archival investigation of the French government’s management of the steel industry between 1980 and 1984 and its support for a European Commission-led management of restructuring. The findings suggest that the pressures of the Commission played a crucial role in strengthening the government’s effort to implement socially unpopular but economically vital industrial choices.     

Political economy of virtue: civil economy,happiness and public trust in the thought of Antonio Genovesi

Abstract

Amid the growing literature in English on the work of the Neapolitan political economist Antonio Genovesi (1713–1769), this paper focuses on his conception of civil economy (economia civile) as a theory of government. By contrast with existing interpretations, the argument is that for Genovesi virtue is a significant ordering device of the polity: virtue mediates between passions and reason, and the human capacity for virtue helps individuals better to realise their different talents. This, in turn, means that virtue is central to the division of labour and the right proportions between different activities, including the balance between consumption and trade.     

Competition policy vs. industrial policy as a growth strategy

ABSTRACT

This paper shows that competition policy, rather than industrial policy, generated the rapid economic growth in post-war Japan. It also reveals that Japan’s growth rate was lowered from the mid-1970s due to newly introduced industrial policies and paucity of further competition policy. The current Abe government recognises the need for competition policies in Japan to recover from the low-growth period. The paper describes the types of competition policy carried out under Abenomics, especially in National Strategic Special Zones.Abbreviations: METI: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry NSSZ: National Strategic Special Zones     

A Keynesian explanation of Indian government bond yields

Abstract

John Maynard Keynes held that the central bank’s actions mainly determine long-term interest rates through short-term interest rates and various monetary policy measures. His conjectures about the determinants of long-term interest rates were made in the context of advanced capitalist economies and were based on his views on liquidity preference, ontological uncertainty, and the formation of investors’ expectations. Is Keynes’s conjecture that the central bank’s action is the main driver of long-term interest rates valid in emerging markets, such as India? This paper empirically investigates the determinants of changes in Indian government bonds’ nominal yields. Changes in short-term interest rates, after controlling for other crucial variables, such as changes in the rate of inflation and the rate of economic activity, take a lead role in driving the changes of the nominal yields of Indian government bonds. This suggests that Keynes’s views on long-term interest rates can also be applicable to emerging markets. The empirical findings reveal that higher fiscal deficits do not appear to exert upward pressures on government bond yields in India.     

任命制下的官员经济增长行为

本文考察地方官员的经济增长行为.在理论上,本文证明了在政治上集权、经济上分权的经济体,即中央任命地方官员、地方官员为增长而竞争的经济体里,不仅会出现竞争效应,还会出现极化效应,正是极化效应决定了理性的地方官员在增长竞争中将采取不同的经济增长行为.在实证上,本文贡献了一种度量极化效应的方法,并基于中国省级官员数据证实了极化效应的存在.     

经济因素牵制中国烟草控制

许多具有商业思想的中国官员认为，控制烟草消费量会损害国家的经济，专家则认为，对于具有3．6亿烟民的国家来说，中国政府做得很少。     

中央官员来源与地方经济增长

本文将1985—2007年中央官员的来源按籍贯与工作经历进行了划分,尝试系统考察中央官员对中国各省区经济增长的影响。研究结果显示中央官员对其籍贯来源省区的经济增长有显著的促进作用,对其曾工作过的省区经济增长的影响则并不显著,并且这一促进作用主要是通过提高其籍贯来源地的投资率来实现的。进一步运用分位数回归的研究结果则表明,上述作用对经济增长速度较慢地区的影响更为明显。本文的发现有助于拓展对中国经济增长过程中政府作用的认识。     

Effect of the global financial meltdown on India’s aggregate export volumes

ABSTRACT

This paper sets up a demand-supply model to analyse India’s export performance (in terms of volumes rather than values) between 2000Q1–2014Q4. The main objective is to determine the impact of the financial meltdown of 2008 on India’s export performance. During the meltdown period, decline in price by India’s competitors in the international market resulted in (1) loss of competitiveness of India’s export goods and (2) a complete breakdown of the price mechanism affecting India’s export demand. Though export supply was not significantly affected by the meltdown episode we find evidence that exporting firms turned towards the domestic market to cope with the loss in export. The meltdown episode began to significantly affect India’s export demand and supply equations from 2009Q3. The demand and supply equations after that period became so unstable that ‘nothing worked’ for India’s exporters as they tried to counter the decline in export. Hence there was ample reason for them to panic and seek the government’s help. Government policies aimed at boosting export demand did have a positive impact on India’s export performance. Government policies to boost export supply had no impact except being palliative for the exporters at their moment of crisis     

Restructuring China's Petrochemical Enterprises: A Case Study of the Fushun Petrochemical Company

This article presents a case study of Fushun Petrochemical Company (FPC), which is a large state-owned enterprise (SOE) in Liaoning province under the control of China National Petroleum Corporation. In the first part of the article we argue that China's approach to the reform of large-scale SOEs in upstream industries such as petroleum has a sound economic logic. In the second part we use the recent restructuring of FPC to illustrate China's approach to reforming the petrochemical sector. We draw on interviews with managers and local government officials to discuss both the difficulties that the enterprise faced prior to reform and the main measures that were implemented during restructuring to address these problems. While the restructuring process at FPC has just been completed, we argue that the outcome provides some support for China's decision to promote large SOEs in upstream industries.     

Understanding the recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict

ABSTRACT

To understand Sino-U.S. trade relations, this article interprets the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the Trump administration’s perspective. The Trump administration claims that the Chinese government’s subsidies and high import tariffs cause the Sino-U.S. trade deficit, resulting in job losses in the U.S. The Trump administration therefore argues that imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports can resolve the deficit. The article finds that U.S. statistical accounting overestimates the deficit. Reducing China’s imports cannot increase U.S. employment, and China provides the United States with low-price and high-quality products. Chinese investors tend to invest the surplus by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition, the United States limits Chinese investments due to ‘national security’ concerns. China’s upgrading to the high end of the global value chain is a consequence of economic development. Therefore, the two countries should rebalance Sino-U.S. trade by seeking economic and trade cooperation via trade negotiations.     

How to reform China’s fiscal system?

ABSTRACT

As the population aging, China’s government expenditures, including general fiscal expenditure, healthcare and social security expenditure, will grow more rapidly than government revenues, tending to elevate government debt. Local governments undertake overwhelming 85% of total general fiscal revenue and are responsible for healthcare and social security, and their debt has been growing. Fiscal reforms are imperative, including tax reforms, the structure of government spending reforms, social security reforms, healthcare reforms, local public finance reforms, and central and local government’s fiscal relationship reforms. This paper will explore the fiscal challenges China faces and discuss how to reform the fiscal system to cope with these challenges.     

社会资本可以增进企业风险资本获取能力吗

以2009年10月到2015年12月在中国创业板上市的495家上市公司为研究对象，验证了社会资本对企业融资能力的影响。首先，将社会资本划分为政治关系资本和行业关系资本，然后，将其中的政治关系资本进一步细分为官员型政治关系资本和代表委员型政治关系资本，更加细致深入地验证了社会资本对企业融资能力的影响。研究结果如下：①无论是政治关系资本还是行业关系资本都有助于企业获得风险投资，表明社会资本可以向外界传递出反映企业高质量的信号，从而帮助其获取风险投资以缓解融资约束；②官员型政治关系资本同样有助于企业获得风险投资；③代表委员型政治关系资本对企业获得风险投资没有显著影响。     

Economies of scale and mechanization in Chinese corn and wheat production

ABSTRACT

As the growth in Chinese farm productivity slowed down between 2000 and 2010, modernizing agriculture has become a priority of the Chinese government. Given the important role of mechanization and land reform policies in that context, this study investigates farm production in China with a specific emphasis on the potential role of mechanization as well as land and farm consolidation. A production function is estimated using farm household data on corn and wheat production in the Shandong and Hebei provinces. The results allowed us to explore the potential economies of scale across a range of farm size, the impact of land fragmentation, and assess the impact of machinery usage. Our findings suggest that, taken in isolation, the prospect for efficiency gains from mechanization and land reforms appears limited.     

Technology progress in the Chinese construction industry under the iron-fist of government

Government policies and actions in transitional economies have far-reaching consequences for technology progress. Many studies suggest the important role of governments in providing policies and finance to facilitate technology innovations. The Chinese government has often been seen to exemplify this. This article probes government actions in practice, the way it is conducted and the negative consequences for innovation. We focus on one of China's most important and successful sectors – construction. An analytical framework based on ‘complex systems industry’ is used and a causal map developed to examine the role of the Chinese government acting as client, regulator and administrator of industrial and professional bodies and their impact on innovation in the construction sector. This paper confirms that innovation is industry specific and social and economic context dependent. While recognising the powerful role of the Chinese government, it argues that in reality the ‘Chinese government’ is not a uniform entity, but rather consists of various entities acting in accordance with their varied vested interests at a specific time and under particular circumstances.     

The role of the executive in Russian budget formation

Abstract

The article provides an examination of the role of Russia’s dual (semi-presidential) executive in the budget process. The Constitution gives the president a strategic role, leaving operational budget formation to the ‘government’, chaired by the prime minister, whereas the common view of Russian policy making is of the president’s ‘hands-on management’. The article looks at how the president engages in the budget process, and whether, on the one hand, excessive ‘hands-on’ presidential involvement leads to a disrupted policy process, or, on the other hand, it breaks down the inter-agency deadlocks that are common in Russian policy making. The conclusion is that a reasonable balance is found between the two.     

The Trade Cycle1

Abstract

The long-run relationship between polity change and economic growth has been considered by a number of researchers, yet no clear consensus has emerged concerning the causal link between these two important measures of progress. This study used various estimation methods based on different assumptions of the unknown error structure to investigate this relationship in 154 countries from 1961 to 2007. First, we found no globally significant relationship between polity change and economic growth. However, we found several significant relationships at the local level, including (a) a positive relationship in the 1980s and in Africa and (b) a negative relationship in the 1970s and in Europe. Second, we found that previous economic growth hinders democracy, albeit slightly; in contrast, the influence of democracy on economic growth is negligible.