联合风险投资对制造业企业技术创新能力的影响

基于联合风险资本为企业带来的增值服务,本文研究了联合风险投资机构的介入可能给制造业企业技术创新能力所带来的影响,并通过深圳创业板市场中制造业企业2011-2014年的数据进行了实证检验分析。研究结果表明,联合风险投资的介入正向促进制造业企业的技术创新能力,但持股比例过高会产生抑制作用;并进一步检验了联合风险投资的介入分别与以股权结构、董事会结构以及管理层激励为代表的公司治理结构产生的交互效应对制造业企业技术创新能力的影响。     

Accessibility to microcredit by Chinese rural households

This paper examines the factors influencing the accessibility of microcredit by rural households in China. The empirical analysis utilises logistic regression, with data collected through a household survey carried out in one province in China. A total of twelve household-level factors are identified as determinants in households’ access to microcredit, including educational level, household size, income, among others. In addition to these, results indicate that rural households’ accessibility to microcredit can also be impaired by the supply-side factors (e.g., interest rates, loan processing time). The empirical analysis establishes a positive relationship between households’ credit demand and access to credit. The paper thus concludes that households should be encouraged to raise capital requirements (for example, create investment opportunities in on/off farm activities) to increase their demand for credit, which can enhance their access to microcredit. In addition, microcredit institutions (such as the Rural Credit Cooperatives) should improve their lending schemes and micro loan products to better suit the diversified needs of the rural population.     

Old,not yet rich? The impact of population aging on export upgrading in developing countries

Does population aging in developing countries, which undermines their traditional export advantages, prevent them upgrading export? Using the method of instrument variables, this paper empirically shows that population aging significantly and adversely affects export upgrading in developing countries. Moreover, the negative impact of population aging is mainly channeled through innovation and human capital. Furthermore, the negative impact of population aging on export upgrading is not present in developed countries and is decreasing in recent years of developing countries. This is possibly due to the inferior institutions and slow adoption of automation in developing countries. Lastly, this paper extends the analysis to a disaggregated level, where the results suggest that an aging country indeed exports less of the products with higher quality.     

高新技术企业认定政策对企业创新的激励效应——基于河北省高新技术企业的实证研究

国家“十四五”规划将创新确定为现代化全局建设的核心地位,而高新技术企业认定是政府激励企业创新的重要政策,但该政策是否达到预期效果尚需要实证检验。因此,以河北省高新技术企业为样本,使用分位数回归和门限回归重点研究高新技术企业认定对企业创新的激励效应。研究结果表明：高新技术企业认定政策可以通过税收减免、现金奖励和政治背书等途径显著激励企业的创新积极性;对创新投入水平较低企业的创新积极性影响更显著;相较于大规模企业,该政策更能促进中小规模企业的创新。     

The trade-growth nexus in the developing countries: a quantile regression approach

This paper applies quantile regression techniques to investigate how the impact of trade openness on the growth rate of per capita income varies with the conditional distribution of growth. Using formal robustness analyses, we first identify robust variables affecting economic growth (investment, government balance, terms of trade, inflation, and population growth) which we then use as controls in the quantile regression estimations. Our findings suggest a heterogeneous trade-growth nexus: for both the short and the long run, the effect of openness on growth is higher in countries with low growth rates compared to those with high growth rates.     

社会资本对辽宁区域经济发展的影响及培育建议

为促进区域经济发展,需要理清社会资本影响区域经济发展的内在机理。社会资本通过推动物质资本投入、提升人力资本、促进技术进步、替代或补充正式制度等形式推促进区域经济发展。利用统计数据,比较分析了社会资本不足对辽宁区域经济发展的的多种不利影响。政府作为培育社会资本的重要主体,应通过加强诚信体系建设、发挥现代社团的规范作用、拓展与延伸区域协作网络等措施,大力培育社会资本。     

Cultural Baggage: Do Immigrants Import Corruption?

Do immigrants undermine culture in a way that destroys productivity in destination countries? Some scholars have argued that because immigrants come from countries with dysfunctional social capital—norms and institutions—they will import it and pollute the social capital in destination countries. One potential channel through which this could occur is corruption. We examine stocks and flows of immigrants over a 20‐year time period to see if corruption increased in destination countries. We generally find that immigration is not associated with increases in corruption. Additionally, we find that immigration tends to decrease corruption in destination countries with low levels of corruption or high levels of economic freedom.     

Financial development,institutions and industrialization in sub-Saharan Africa

Using a panel data covering more than 100 countries worldwide, we have estimated a dynamic panel model to investigate the relationship between financial development and manufacturing industries’ growth. More specifically, we have estimated the effect that institutional quality might have in this relationship in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The results show that lower quality institutions in SSA are a hindrance to the role financial development plays in the growth of the manufacturing industrial sector, as compared with developed countries. These findings are robust when a quantile regression model is used. Furthermore, the results confirm that the relationship between per capita GDP and industrialization is nonlinear. Finally, in SSA, the abundance of natural resources has an adverse effect on the manufacturing industrial value added, providing more evidence for the Dutch disease hypothesis.     

基于新知识生产函数的青海高新技术企业创新驱动力研究

基于新经济增长模型,通过岭回归实证检验,分析了青海省高新技术企业创新产出的影响因素。实证结果显示企业内部研发投入和人力资本对创新产出有积极作用,集聚知识溢出水平对创新产出的贡献较大,政府支持力度对创新产出的作用不稳定。最后,结合高新技术企业调研现状和实证结果提出了高新技术企业提高创新产出的对策建议。     

基于新知识生产函数的青海高新技术企业创新驱动力研究

基于新经济增长模型,通过岭回归实证检验,分析了青海省高新技术企业创新产出的影响因素。实证结果显示企业内部研发投入和人力资本对创新产出有积极作用,集聚知识溢出水平对创新产出的贡献较大,政府支持力度对创新产出的作用不稳定。最后,结合高新技术企业调研现状和实证结果提出了高新技术企业提高创新产出的对策建议。     

Is monetary policy non‐linear in Indonesia,Korea, Malaysia,and Thailand? A quantile regression analysis

There is a growing literature on the linearity or otherwise of monetary policy in industrialised countries. The investigations have revealed that the reactions of central banks to economic variables depend on the level of the variables, confirming the non‐linearity of monetary policy in these countries. However, research into whether monetary policy is non‐linear in emerging markets has been hampered by the lack of data, as a stable, ‘modern’ monetary regime has existed in emerging markets for only a relatively short time. Employing quantile regression, which is not as constrained as other regression methods by the shortness of time series, we investigate the non‐linearity of monetary policy in four emerging Asian nations: Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. Our results indicate that monetary policy in all four is non‐linear. All display a ‘hump‐shaped’ response to inflation across the quantiles—policy becomes tighter, going from lower to higher quantiles, reaches a peak, and then becomes looser. These results are similar to those found previously in Japan, and likely arise from a desire to limit exchange rate appreciation, as all four countries depend heavily on exports.     

Monetary Policy Impulses and Retail Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Asian Banking Markets

This paper considers the integration of financial markets and mutual influences of monetary policies in the USA and Asia based on monthly data from 1994 to 2007. We used panel‐type and time‐series and quantile panel‐type error correction models to test the influences of expected and unexpected monetary policy impulses on the interest rate pass‐through mechanism in the financial markets of 9 Asian countries and the USA. The empirics show that if interest rate integration exists in the financial markets, the following effects are observed: (i) positive impulses of unexpected monetary policy will lead to an increase in the long‐run multiplier of the retail interest rate; (ii) the adjustment of retail interest rates with short‐run disequilibrium will lead to an increase in the long‐run markup; and (iii) the empirical results of quantile regression prove that when the interest variation is greater than the 0.5th quantile and unexpected monetary policy impulses are greater than the expected monetary policy impulses, the short‐run interest rate pass‐through mechanism becomes more unstable.     

基于分位回归模型的西部上市公司资本结构研究

利用我国西部上市公司的数据,运用分位回归模型研究资本结构的各类影响因素,与OLS回归结果相对照,可以发现公司规模、股本结构、资产担保价值、非债务税盾和收益性等因素对处于资本结构不同分位的公司的非对称性影响,从而丰富了对资本结构影响因素的理解。     

国家高新区能否提升城市创新水平?

文章基于2003年至2016年我国215个城市面板数据，运用双重差分模型、空间双重差分模型和分位数回归模型等方法，实证检验了国家高新区对城市创新水平的影响及其空间异质性特征。研究结果表明，国家高新区建设显著提升了城市创新水平，并且高新区设立带动的城市投资集聚是推动城市创新水平提升的重要原因。空间双重差分结果表明，国家高新区对城市创新水平的提升作用并非源于其对周边城市创新资源的掠夺，相反高新区设立对周边城市和省内城市均产生了显著的溢出效应，提升了本省城市和周边外省城市创新水平。此外，国家高新区对城市创新水平的影响具有空间异质性特征，在省会城市、直辖市和副省级城市，高新区对城市创新水平的影响并不显著，而能够显著提升一般地级市创新水平；随着城市创新水平的提升，高新区建设对城市创新水平的促进作用呈现出先增强、后减弱直至不再显著的非对称"倒V型"变化特征。但是研究也发现，国家高新区对城市创新水平影响的区位异质性并不显著，高新区对东部地区和中西部地区城市创新水平提升均具有显著的促进作用。     

Institutions,Capital, and Growth

The international development community has encouraged investment in physical and human capital as a precursor to economic progress. Recent evidence shows, however, that increases in capital do not always lead to increases in output. We develop a growth model where the allocation and productivity of capital depends on a country's institutions. We find that increases in physical and human capital lead to output growth only in countries with good institutions. In countries with bad institutions, increases in capital lead to negative growth rates because additions to the capital stock tend to be employed in rent‐seeking and other socially unproductive activities.     

‘Growing’ social protection in developing countries: Lessons from Brazil and South Africa

The rapid expansion of social protection in the South provides a rich diversity of experiences and lessons on how best to reduce poverty and ultimately eradicate it. Knowledge on how best to ‘grow’ social assistance, understood as long-term institutions responsible for reducing and preventing poverty, is at a premium. This article examines the expansion of social assistance in Brazil and South Africa, two of the middle income countries widely perceived to have advanced furthest in ‘growing’ social protection. It examines three aspects: the primacy of politics in explaining the expansion of social protection and assistance, the tensions between path-dependence and innovation in terms of institutions and practices, and the poverty and inequality outcomes of social assistance expansion. The article concludes by drawing the main lessons for other developing countries.     

营运资本政策的稳健性是否会受大股东社会资本的影响

文章基于“关系是形成社会资本的基础”这一思想,研究了我国 A 股上市公司大股东社会资本对公司营运资本政策稳健性的影响。实证研究发现,大股东社会资本数量与营运资本稳健性显著正相关,大股东社会资本对公司营运资本政策的稳健程度具有积极的正向影响;进而,不同关系强度的股东社会资本的治理效应不尽相同,强关系型社会资本较弱关系型社会资本更能促进利益协同效应的发挥。文章研究证实,大股东社会资本作为“隐形权力”的存在影响了“显性”的股权比例对营运资本政策的影响。     

长三角外商直接投资对工业经济增长影响的实证分析

文章利用长三角地区2004年经济普查中类行业的截面数据,采用普通最小二乘法（OLS）和分位数回归法（Quantile Regress）研究了该地区外商直接投资对于工业经济增长的影响,在控制人力资本和市场竞争度之后,实证结果表明外商直接投资对于长三角地区的工业经济增长显著正相关,即FDI总的溢出效应为正,同时更富有竞争力的市场也有利于工业总产值的提高。通过长三角地区内部的比较分析得出,上海利用FDI的溢出效应为负,江苏利用FDI的溢出效应为正且不显著,浙江的FDI则具有显著正的溢出效应。     

环境规制对省域绿色创新效率的门槛效应研究

文章通过省域环境成本最优规划探讨正式、非正式环境规制影响绿色创新的机理,选取2005-2014年各省域面板数据为研究样本,利用Super-SBM模型测算绿色创新效率,在此基础上构建门槛回归模型实证检验正式、非正式环境规制对绿色创新效率的门槛效应。结果表明：正式环境规制与绿色创新效率之间存在单门槛值,两者之间呈"U"型关系,非正式环境规制与绿色创新效率之间存在单门槛值,两者之间呈倒"U"型关系,交通设施条件,居民素质程度、劳动力投入和资本投入与绿色创新效率均存在显著正相关关系。     

Innovation,learning, and exporting in China: Does R&D or a technology index matter?

This paper undertakes econometric analysis of innovation, learning, and exporting in automobiles and electronics firms in China using a large-scale 2003 dataset to identify the most appropriate innovation proxy. Drawing on recent literature on innovation and learning in developing countries, it tests two alternative proxies: (i) a technology index (TI) to capture a variety of minor activities involved in using imported technologies efficiently; and (ii) the research and development (R&D)-to-sales ratio, which represents formal technological efforts to create new products and processes, often at world frontiers. A higher TI increases the probability of exporting in both industries, while the R&D-to-sales ratio was not significant. Foreign ownership, technical manpower, and the characteristics of the general manager/chief executive officer also matter. The findings suggest that China's remarkable success in the export of automobiles and electronics since initiating an open-door foreign direct investment (FDI) policy in 1978 is linked to technology transfer from multinationals; systematic investments in and upgrading of minor technological activities (like search, engineering, quality management and design); and human capital. As China's per capita income rises over time, however, formal R&D activities are likely to become more important to sustain competitiveness and technological upgrading in automobiles and electronics.