管理层股权激励是否降低了公司过度投资——来自股权分置改革的经验证据

本文从股权分置制度变迁的角度研究管理层股权激励有效性及内在机理。以2005年股权分置改革为结构断点进行Chow检验,发现股权激励治理效应回归方程在2003—2009年全样本期间发生了显著的结构性变化,股权分置改革改善了管理层股权激励的治理效应,减少了过度投资。进一步研究表明,股权分置制度变迁对国有公司管理层股权激励效应影响显著,缓解了公司代理问题,但是对非国有公司没有显著影响。上述研究对于解决国有公司过度投资具有重要的现实意义。     

Economic policy uncertainty,corporate investment decisions and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China

We examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock price crash risk via the corporate investment in Chinese listed firms. Results show that higher EPU is associated with lower crash risk. Firms increase financial asset holdings and reduce overinvestment when EPU rises, leading to lower future crash risk. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and firms with lower management incentives tend to reduce overinvestment, whereas non-SOEs tend to increase financial asset holdings. Thus, firms tend to be cautious in their investments when EPU is high, which reduces crash risk. Our study provides new insights into the validity of the Lucas critique in China.     

Stock repurchases: A further test of the free cash flow hypothesis

This study explores the empirical puzzle currently existing regarding the observed positive stock price reaction associated with self-tender offer announcements. The puzzle stems from Lang and Litzenberger's (1989) findings that Jensen's (1986, 1989) free cash flow (overinvestment) hypothesis is consistent with changes in cash dividends, whereas Howe, He and Kao's (1992) study of analogous cash events (i.e., self-tender offers and specially designated dividends) finds no support for the free cash flow hypothesis. By stratifying our sample of firms repurchasing their stock by the source of the firm's free cash flow (overinvestment) problem, additional light is shed on the interaction between the signalling and free cash flow theories.     

Understanding the rise and decline of the Japanese main bank system: The changing effects of bank rent extraction

This paper shows how main bank rent extraction affects corporate decisions about investment and financing during financial regulatory reform. Our model predicts that limited loanable funds can initially contain main bank controlled overinvestment, even when new equity is available to the firm. Abundant funds facilitate overinvestment to the detriment of firm profitability. A shift of control rights back to the firm due to financial deregulation produces an “equity for upside potential and bank debt for downside risk” bias against the banks. A stock market and real estate boom in Japan made it harder than ever for the banks to diversify risk. The insights from this analysis help explain why Japan’s main bank system was beneficial in the (capital constrained) postwar period but became harmful during the (capital abundant and even bubbly) 1980s, and why the adverse shocks of the post-deregulation 1990s had such severe effects on the banking system.     

Stock-based managerial compensation,price informativeness,and the incentive to overinvest

This paper investigates the relationship among a firm's managerial incentive scheme, the informativeness of its stock price, and its investment policy. It shows that the shareholders' concerns about the effectiveness of stock-based compensation can lead to overinvestment. However, unlike other explanations in the literature, our results are neither caused by suboptimal incentive contracts nor do they rely on the assumption that managers are “empire builders.” Rather, overinvestment serves to induce information production by outside investors. By accepting positive and negative NPV projects, a firm effectively increases the market's uncertainty about its cash flow, thereby giving traders more incentives to become informed.     

Does unionization affect the manager–shareholder conflict? Evidence from firm-specific stock price crash risk

This study examines whether and how labor unionization influences firm-specific stock price crash risk. Using a regression discontinuity design that leverages locally exogenous variation in unionization generated by close union elections, we find that unionization leads to a significant decline in crash risk. We further explore the underlying mechanisms through which unionization affects crash risk and find that unions limit risk-taking, constrain overinvestment, and improve information flow, which in turn reduces crash risk. Overall, our study resolves some of the current debate over the implications of unions and sheds new light on their net impact on shareholder welfare.     

The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets

Firms with higher asset growth rates subsequently experience lower stock returns in international equity markets, consistent with the U.S. evidence. This negative effect of asset growth on returns is stronger in more developed capital markets and markets where stocks are more efficiently priced, but is unrelated to country characteristics representing limits to arbitrage, investor protection, and accounting quality. The evidence suggests that the cross-sectional relation between asset growth and stock return is more likely due to an optimal investment effect than due to overinvestment, market timing, or other forms of mispricing.     

Capital expenditures and firm performance: evidence from a cross‐sectional analysis of stock returns

Using a simple two‐period model of investment, we show that there should be a nonlinear relation between a firm's investment‐to‐capital ratio and its subsequent stock returns. This prediction finds substantial empirical support. The evidence indicates that the slope of the investment function is negative at low investment levels, close to zero at intermediate investment levels and negative at high investment levels. Our results, which are robust to the use of narrowly‐ and broadly‐defined measures of capital investment, pose a challenge to the hypothesis that the negative cross‐sectional correlation between investment and stock returns is attributable to some sort of overinvestment phenomenon.     

Stock Options and the Corporate Demand for Insurance

This article shows that a corporate manager compensated in stock options makes corporate decisions to maximize stock option value. Overinvestment is a consequence if risk increases with investment. Facing the choice of hedging corporate risk with forward contracts on a stock market index fund and insuring pure risks the manager will choose the latter. Hedging with forwards reduces weight in both tails of corporate payoff distribution and thus reduces option value. Insuring pure risks reduces the weight in the left tail where the options are out‐of‐the‐money and increases the weight in the right tail where the options are in‐the‐money; the effect is an increase in the option value. Insurance reduces the overinvestment problem but no level of insurance coverage can reduce investment to that which maximizes the shareholder value.     

Equity financing in a Myers–Majluf framework with private benefits of control

This paper generalizes the Myers and Majluf (1984) model by introducing an agency cost structure based on private benefits of control. This new model predicts that many corporate finance variables each have opposing effects on under- and overinvestment. Private benefits exacerbate overinvestment but, interestingly, a small amount of private benefits can enhance firm value by alleviating underinvestment. Likewise, an increase in insider ownership alleviates overinvestment but aggravates underinvestment. When private benefits are small, the adverse effect of insider ownership on underinvestment tends to dominate. When there are considerable private benefits, the incentive-alignment effect of insider ownership is pronounced. Additionally, this model reconciles existing equity financing theories on announcement effects. It helps resolve the puzzle that small-growth firms do not seem to have an asymmetric information disadvantage when they issue new equity.     

国际原油价格对我国新能源行业股票价格的波动溢出效应研究

在大气污染日益严峻的情况下,新能源行业受政府大力支持和投资者青睐。新能源与原油一定程度上互为替代品,理论上国际原油价格必然对我国新能源行业股票价格有显著的波动溢出效应,但有些学者却持反对态度,认为我国股票市场对外还没有完全开放,新能源行业发展又很不成熟,所以该溢出效应很难显著。文章运用VAR- Asymmetric- BEKK模型进行比较研究得出：在未去除我国整体股市行情因素时,国际原油价格波动对我国新能源行业股票价格波动溢出效应不显著;而在去除我国整体股行情因素时,国际原油价格波动对我国新能源行业股票价格波动溢出效应在1%显著性水平下显著。表明存在从国际原油价格向我国新能源行业股票价格的波动溢出效应,只是该溢出效应被我国股市总体行情掩盖了。     

Does takeover activity affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from international M&A laws

We exploit the staggered initiation of merger and acquisition (M&A) laws across countries as a plausibly exogenous shock to the threat of takeover to examine whether the market for corporate control has a real effect on firm-level stock price crash risk. Using a difference-in-differences regression on a large sample of firms from 32 countries, we find that stock price crash risk significantly decreases following the passage of M&A laws. This effect is stronger for firms domiciled in countries with poorer investor protection and information environments and for firms with weaker firm-level governance. Further, financial reporting opacity and overinvestment significantly decrease in the post-M&A law periods. Our study suggests that an active takeover market has a disciplining effect on managerial bad news hoarding and leads to lower future crash risk.     

新能源汽车财务与非财务消息对股市影响的多维特征及差异

新能源汽车股市是投资者对公司财务绩效、政策导向、技术水平和发展前景等多方面因素综合反应的结果。将新能源汽车产业相关消息分为"财务"和"非财务"消息,应用事件研究法从"敏感性""、强弱性"和"持续性"三个维度分析了财务与非财务类消息对于新能源汽车股市影响的差异性。结果表明,新能源汽车非财务类消息对于股市表现影响的强度和持续性相对更显著。新能源汽车非财务类消息中的政策、市场消息对于股市表现影响的敏感性要高于技术消息,政策、技术消息对于股市表现影响的强度明显高于市场消息,技术消息对于股市表现影响的持续性明显优于政策和市场类消息。新能源汽车产业的政策扶持不应仅仅关注现阶段新能源汽车制造商的财务指标,更应高度关注新能源汽车制造商的创新能力。制造商要进一步加大新能源汽车的研发投入,通过资本市场的合理融资促进新能源汽车技术创新和长期盈利能力提升。     

Local speculative culture and stock price crash risk

Using unique city gambling conviction data in China as a proxy for a local speculative culture, we examine the impact of such a culture on stock price crash risk. We find that firms in regions with a stronger speculative culture are more likely to experience future stock price crash risk. The results are consistent after using 2SLS regression analysis (IV) and staggered difference-in-difference (DID) analysis to mitigate endogeneity concerns. Further analysis shows that overinvestment, excessive debt, accounting conservatism and charitable donations are the main channels through which local speculative culture affects stock price crash risk. We also find that the positive relationship between local speculative culture and stock price crash risk is more salient for small firms and firms with managers with a cultural backgrounds similar to the local culture. Our study implies that the local culture plays an important role in the practice of corporate governance.     

中国上市公司股权激励实施效果研究

股权激励制度设计的初衷是为了减弱代理问题,因此考察股权激励的实施效果应该首先直接考察它能否缓解经理人的代理问题,然后才是对公司绩效的影响.利用2006-2014年我国沪深两市A股上市公司面板数据,从代理成本和公司绩效两个层面研究我国股权激励实施效果,结果表明:上市公司实施股权激励可抑制投资不足行为,却加剧了经理人的过度投资行为;股权激励计划并不能显著降低经理人的在职消费,由此而带来的以ROA衡量的公司绩效改善也并不显著,这从两个层面说明我国股权激励计划的激励效果并不明显.     

Corporate social responsibility and earnings forecasting unbiasedness

We investigate the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and I/B/E/S analysts’ earnings per share (EPS) forecasts using a large sample of US firms for 1992–2011. Based on literature findings, we decompose the CSR effect into four factors: accounting opacity, corporate governance, stakeholder risk, and overinvestment. We find that all of them significantly affect both the absolute forecast error on EPS and its standard deviation controlling for forecast horizon; number of analysts and forecasts; and year, industry, and broker house effects. Consistently with our ex ante hypotheses, overinvestment, stakeholder risk, and accounting opacity have a positive effect, increasing both dependent variables, while corporate governance quality has a negative effect. A crucial aspect of our findings is that high CSR quality in terms of the four factors (i.e., accounting transparency, high corporate governance quality, stakeholder risk mitigation, and absence of overinvestment) contributes to making earnings forecasts unbiased as unbiasedness is generally met in the subsample of the Top CSR quality companies and markedly violated in the subsample of the Bottom CSR companies. We also document that overinvestment and stakeholder risk are sufficient to produce this effect.     

Large blockholders and stock price crash risk: An international study

This study examines the relationship between large blockholders and stock price crash risk across 44 countries. Based on the results, firms held by large blockholders have a lower firm-specific crash risk than widely held firms. In this case, the higher the proportion of voting rights, the lower the risk. In addition, the negative association is more pronounced in firms undertaking overinvestment activities. The findings also suggest that large shareholders serve as monitors in firms, reducing agency costs and leading to lower stock price crash risk. Meanwhile, this mitigating effect is stronger in firms held by a family, another widely held corporation, and the state. Conversely, the results show no such effect in firms held by a large institutional investor. Finally, the relationship is more pronounced in developed countries and in English common law and German civil law countries, thus highlighting the role of large blockholders as a complementary governance mechanism, rather than a substitutive one.     

Mispricing of Research and Development Investments in a Rapidly Emerging and Electronics-Dominated Market

This paper documents prevailing mispricing of research and development (R&D) investments in the Taiwan stock market, a rapidly emerging and electronics-dominated market. Applying stock return data from July 1988 to June 2005, we observe that R&D-intensive stocks tend to outperform stocks with little or no R&D. The R&D-intensity effect cannot be attributed fully to firm size and seasonal effects. The R&D-associated anomaly not only exists but also persists for up to three years. The market apparently undervalues R&D-intensive firms and overvalues non-R&D-intensive firms. Finally, the R&D anomaly is clearer for firms in the electronics industry after 1996.     

CEO Overconfidence and Long‐Term Performance Following R&D Increases

We examine the relation between Chief Executive Officer (CEO) overconfidence and significant increases in research and development (R&D) expenditures. Although prior studies reveal a significantly positive market reaction to increases in R&D expenditures in both the long and short run, we find that long‐run stock performance is positive only for firms whose CEOs are not overconfident. Our findings, which may be attributable to overinvestment and the overestimation of future cash flows, imply that R&D resulting from overconfident behavior does not provide any value to firms.     

Reforming conforming loan limits: The impact on thrift earnings and taxpayer outlays

In recent years, the conforming loan limit has risen rapidly (62 percent between 1985 and 1989 versus a 10 percent rise in the price of a constant-quality new house) and has assumed significant importance to homebuyers and portfolio lenders. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have become the price setters for comforming FRMs, and the yield being set appears to be 30 basis points below what it would otherwise be. The lower yield raises the old issue of overinvestment in housing, but its most important effect is on thrifts who now earn 30 basis points less on FRM investments under the conforming limit and who have difficulty originating ARMs. Moreover, given other thrift problems, taxpayers will apparently end up directly funding the interest income lost owing to low yields on conforming FRMs.In this article we calculate the impact on thrift interest income of two redefinitions of conforming loans: making all refinancings nonconforming and lowering the loand limit to the loan ceiling for FHA/VA loans (which was, in fact, the conforming limit prior to 1975). Each of these redefinitions makes sense from a public policy perspective. Thrifts would have earned nearly $700 million more in 1987 had both redefinitions been in place at the start of 1986. This would have amounted to a 23 percent increase in the industry net operating income (income excluding profits or losses from the sale of assets) and a corresponding increase in return to equity. By the early 1990s, the income gain from these changes, had they been put in place in early 1986, would likely be over a billion dollars—certainly a noticeable saving for taxpayers.