The future of Russia’s agriculture and food industry between global opportunities and technological restrictions

This paper reports on the result of a major foresight exercise commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation on the prospective developments of the agriculture and food industry up to the year 2030. The exercise identified economic, technological, social and ecological trends that will greatly influence both supply and demand in the industry. The findings provide a decision base for policy-makers to improve the technology base and to ease the reliance on technology imports. The country’s agricultural producers have been struggling with the introduction of new technologies, and customers are showing conservative demand patterns. Previous research showed that technology transfer into Russian agricultural enterprises suffers from a low knowledge level especially in receiving organizations. The country’s own S&T system requires support both for technology development and technology transfer, especially for breeding of best-suited plants and animals for local circumstances. Furthermore, consumer behaviour could be influenced towards higher demand, for example, organic food or ethical husbandry.     

Effect of changes in population density and crop productivity on farm households in Malawi

This study examines the ex‐ante farm‐household effects of changes in family size, yield potential, and yield gaps using a farm‐household simulation model that reflects the economic and biophysical conditions of central Malawi. Disparities between growth in human population and crop yields present challenges for farm‐household crop production and income in sub‐Saharan Africa. We focus on the effect of growth in yield potential and a more efficient use of livestock manure as approaches to improving crop production and incomes in the face of looming population pressures. Our results suggest that, even without considering climate change, expected changes in population density and crop prices in 2050 mean that per person crop production and income may fall by 21% compared to 2013 values if yield potential and yield gaps remain constant. However, per person crop production and income could increase in 2050 by 8% compared to 2013 values if (1) growth rates of yield potential rise for maize by 1.13% each year and for legumes rise by at least 0.4% each year, and (2) farmers use livestock manure more efficiently. Our foresight approach to considering crop production at the farm‐household scale supplements macro‐scale analyses of the production dimension of food security.     

基于生产要素视角的重庆市农业供给效率与发展潜力分析

目的 重庆市作为我国西部大开发重要的综合产业基地,探究该地区农业供给效率和农业发展潜力对促进农业可持续发展和农业政策制定具有积极意义。方法 文章以2001—2017年为研究时段,采用C-D生产函数模型对农业供给效率进行动态分析,采用熵权法构建农业发展潜力指数评价模型,并根据各地区农业发展潜力指数构建农业发展潜力竞争模型。结果 生产要素弹性分析结果表明2001—2017年农业劳动力弹性、农业土地弹性和化肥使用量弹性呈现负增长趋势,在农业供给侧结构中的贡献程度在逐渐减弱。农业资本弹性、农业机械总动力弹性和农业技术进步随着时间呈现增长的趋势,应该加大农业资本的投入,提高农业机械化程度,最大程度地提高农业生产效率。综合分析生产要素弹性和规模报酬指数,2001—2017年重庆市农业供给效率在不断提高。农业发展潜力指数分析结果表明2001—2017年全市农业发展潜力指数从47.15增长到60.13,各区县农业发展潜力指数也都呈明显的增长趋势。结论 重庆市农业经济增长方式已经由外延式增长方式逐渐转化为内涵式增长方式,农业经营方式从粗放型向密集型转化,农业供给效率在明显上升,各地区农业发展潜力指数在逐渐增加,经济发展程度对农业发展潜力具有明显的促进作用。     

基于地块单元的冬小麦遥感估产方法研究

[目的]以高分时序遥感影像为基础数据源,结合土地承包经营权地块数据,对冬小麦遥感估产方法及其精度进行研究和分析。[方法]文章以河南省兰考县为研究区,采用2019年4―5月份的GF-1C和GF-6 2 m PMS遥感影像提取了研究区冬小麦种植空间分布,并在地块单元控制下对冬小麦种植面积进行了修正和精度验证。其最优提取结果的修正阈值为0.93,地块单元内冬小麦总体分类精度为95.66%,Kappa系数为0.89。利用3月7日至5月20日6期GF-1 WFV遥感影像序列NDVI和RVI与冬小麦种植地块单元数据进行空间统计,得出各冬小麦种植地块单元内NDVI和RVI均值,通过分析冬小麦测产地块单元内均值植被指数与产量间的敏感性,提出一种组合均值植被指数的冬小麦遥感估产模型构建方法,通过交叉验证法对不同的估产线性回归模型进行精度评价。[结果]由4个均值植被指数组合变量的多元线性回归模型为最佳,决定系数为0.922 0,预测误差为40.96 g/m~2,预测精度为93.13%。通过该模型得出兰考县冬小麦平均产量为6 047.25 kg/hm~2,较2017年河南省统计年鉴研究区冬小麦平均单产6 001 kg/hm~2有所提高,土地承包经营权地块内和地块外冬小麦总产量分别为2.76亿kg和4 650万kg。[结论]该方法实现了冬小麦估产结果以像元为单位向以地块单元为单位的转变,解决了模型构建时光谱信息与实测产量间对应问题,为利用国产高分卫星进行县域地块尺度遥感单产精准化估算提供了方法支撑。     

自来水供应系统水质风险耦合致因分析

以城市自来水水质事故致因为研究视角,首先识别供水水质风险因素,并从单、双及多因素角度分析供水水质风险因素间的耦合关系,再借助N-K模型对2008—2017年全国所发生的362起城市重大供水水质风险耦合度进行度量。结果表明:城市自来水供应动态系统中,水质风险率随着参与耦合的风险因素的增多而增加;管理因素风险是水质风险的内因,风险管控是规避水质风险的关键;环境因素风险对水质事故的发生起推动作用。     

四川茶叶适生空间演化以及生产空间响应特征

[目的]茶产业已经成为乡村振兴的支柱性产业和贫困山区茶农增收的重要抓手。四川作为中国重要的茶叶产区,预测茶叶适生空间将为生产空间布局优化提供依据。[方法]文章基于1980—2020年气候、土壤、地形三方面的环境数据,通过MaxEnt模型构建分布位置和环境变量的关系模型对四川茶叶适生空间进行预测,并结合种植面积探究生产空间对适生空间的响应模式。[结果](1)表明构建的关系模型可信度高,可以预测5个阶段的茶叶适生空间(AUC> 0.9)。影响四川茶叶生长的主要环境变量为海拔、pH、年降水量、坡度、生长季相对湿度,其中海拔430～1 200m,pH 4.4～5.3,年降水量大于1 080mm,坡度小于10°,相对湿度大于78%的区域最适宜茶叶生长。(2)茶叶适生空间多分布于四川盆地西部平原区和盆周山地区,呈“C”字型,1980—2020年适生空间面积在232万～269万hm²,变化趋势整体上呈现波动上升。(3)四川茶叶的适生空间重心演变轨迹整体上呈现“北移”趋势,2000年之后,迁移方向从南移转为北移;生产空间重心变化幅度较适生空间波动性更强。(4) 1990—2...     

A case study of land reform and coastal land transformation in southern Sonora, Mexico

This paper examines the coastal ejido (collectives of peasant landholders) sector's response to the 1992 amendment to Article 27 of Mexico's Constitution, which for the first time legalized the sale and rental of ejido lands. Our analysis is based on a case study of southern Sonora, Mexico. The results indicate a shift in land tenure from the ejido to the private sector and a corresponding conversion of coastal lands to shrimp aquaculture ponds. Our analysis suggests these land-tenure and land-use changes, and the implications of these changes for the coastal ejido sector, vary depending on the historical, geographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ejido communities.     

Labor allocation to non-timber extraction in a Mexican rainforest community

This paper analyzes the determinants of participation in the extraction of xate palm, the most important non-timber forest product in the Mexican Lacandona Rainforest (Selva Lacandona) in terms of its contribution to cash income for households. Results show that low opportunity costs and low human capital, two strong correlates of rural poverty, significantly explain the degree of participation in xate extraction. This gives reasons to be moderately optimistic about the poverty-reduction potential of programs that successfully increase the price of xate received by extractors.     

特大型水利工程项目多元利益冲突风险评估

考虑多元利益冲突之间的复杂关系，基于压力-状态-响应模型，从政府、移民、媒体、项目法人等主体，构建压力-状态-响应多元利益冲突风险评估模型，并以淅川县为例探讨南水北调特大型水利工程项目建设过程中利益相关者交叉冲突风险问题。研究表明:淅川县2008—2017年多元利益冲突风险综合指数呈现下降态势，冲突风险等级经历了风险较大—风险较小的演变历程，但仍存在潜在利益冲突增大的风险。从实证分析可以看出，利益分享机制、移民受教育程度、社会保障率、舆情危机指标对淅川县多元利益冲突风险影响较大，研究结果可以为其他类似的特大型工程项目风险评估与防范提供借鉴。     

荆芥生态适宜性区划及挥发油品质的研究

目的 荆芥作为解表药为我国临床常用的药材,在新型冠状病毒的治疗过程中有应用,目前栽培资源较多。研究划分荆芥在我国的适宜生长区,并对不同产地药材的挥发油进行分析,从而为种植环境的选择及药材的质量控制提供依据。方法 文章通过生态适宜性区划研究,划分荆芥的最适宜区、较适宜区、不适宜区,利用气相色谱-质谱联用技术（GC-MS）分析不同产地荆芥及荆芥穗的挥发油成分,通过正交偏最小二乘法判别分析（OPLS-DA）筛选差异化合物,并对薄荷酮、胡薄荷酮、柠檬烯等7个主要挥发性成分进行含量测定,统计不同产地荆芥及荆芥穗挥发性成分的差异。结果 荆芥在我国的最适宜区主要为中部地区,包括山东、河北南部、安徽北部等地,青海、西藏地区不适宜荆芥的种植。各产地间荆芥、荆芥穗的挥发油成分及含量有差异。结论 荆芥穗挥发油含量高于荆芥,因此荆芥穗品质优于荆芥。河北、安徽、山东为荆芥的最适宜种植区,山东、安徽产荆芥质量优,河北产荆芥穗质量优。生境适宜度与挥发油品质研究结果一致。     

Does private income support sustainable agroforestry in Spanish dehesa?

Oak woodland dehesa suffers from the aging of trees without a natural regeneration of young oaks coming in to replace them. Recent European Union (EU) policy reforms for rural development focus on supporting multifunctional agriculture that complies with the EU's environmental goals, such as mitigating biodiversity losses and climate change. Such reforms could result in government support for natural woodland regeneration practices in European agroforestry systems, which are recognized for providing valuable environmental services. Managing dehesa cork oak and holm oak woodlands to stimulate the growth of new oaks could be an efficient option for maintaining, and even increasing, the dehesa's current carbon stock and biodiversity. Here we develop and apply a new agroforestry accounting system based on the concept of Hicksian income to a dehesa in the Monfragüe area of western Spain, using primary microeconomic data from a large case study. Private total income and profitability rates are measured for individual goods and services, and for the entire dehesa in a steady state. Our application extends the EU system of accounts for agriculture and forestry by including private amenity consumption by landowners and the gain or loss in human-made and natural capital. We compare an actual typical unsustainable woodland management scenario with an ideal sustainable management scenario in which there is a continuous regeneration and recruitment of holm and cork oaks as predicted by silvicultural models. The results show that, given current land use policy incentives, allowing a slow depletion of oak trees is more profitable for a dehesa private landowner than maintaining the dehesa's trees. As a result many dehesa environmental services are gradually lost. This market failure requires new land use policies that induce private land owners to invest in the renewal of aging oak woodlands. To evaluate the impacts of this new policy, we show how private landowner income is affected when changes are made to achieve sustainable management of dehesa oaks. More research is needed in order to understand how the dehesa's landowner market income and private amenities trade-off can affect the owner's land use preferences and decisions.     

基于MaxEnt和GIS的山西省连翘潜在分布及适宜性分析

[目的]连翘是一味常用中药,在山西省分布广泛。预测连翘适宜种植区,有助于优化已有种植区的布局以及科学推广引种适宜种植区域,可为山西省贫困区县连翘合理种植提供参考。[方法]文章基于19个环境相关数据和98个连翘种植区采样点数据,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和GIS空间分析法,构建自然、人文相结合的种植适宜性模型,预测连翘潜在分布及适宜性,筛选主导环境因子并探究其与存在概率之间关系。[结果]连翘在山西省种植的最适宜区、较适宜区、适宜区以及不适宜区面积分别为21 049.74km~2、35 655.15 km~2、44 707.90km~2和65 287.20km~2,分别占山西省总面积的12.63%、21.39%、26.82%和39.16%。其中,最适宜区集中分布在山西省的东南部地区,以临汾市、长治市分布最多;较适宜区分布在山西省南部地区,以运城市、晋城市分布最多;适宜区遍布山西省各个地市,但分布零散,受地形、坡度影响较大,不易形成规模生产,连翘的产量和质量均不高。从农户种植便利度、规模化种植灌溉便利度、农业物资运输便利度叠合分析得出,建议连翘的推广区为晋东南长治市、晋城市半丘陵区和太原市、晋中市交界区。刀切法测试表明,年最低气温、气温季节性变动是影响连翘潜在分布的两个最主要环境因子。[结论]连翘具有很高的社会经济价值,山西省大多数地区均适宜种植;在推广种植时应考虑农户种植便利度、规模化种植灌溉便利度、农业物资运输便利度等影响。     

黄桃种植区提取及其潜在适生区预测

目的 产业振兴是乡村振兴的一项重要内容,发展乡村产业,对我国乡村振兴战略的实施有重要意义。黄桃是湖北省江陵县三湖农场的特色农产品,通过识别黄桃种植区并预测其潜在适生区,将有助于黄桃生产空间布局优化。方法 文章选取哨兵二号遥感影像,利用时间序列植被指数、物候特征以及随机森林分类器方法对研究区黄桃种植区进行提取。在此基础上,选取环境变量,使用最大熵模型MaxEnt对黄桃在江汉平原的潜在适生区进行预测。结果 （1）黄桃开花是利用遥感进行黄桃种植区提取的重要物候特征,黄桃种植区提取的总体精度为87%,kappa系数为0.84,分类精度较好,可满足应用要求;（2）最大熵模型MaxEnt精度显示AUC值为0.993,说明预测结果可靠,可用于黄桃潜在适生区的预测;（3）黄桃的潜在适生区主要位于江陵县中北部、沙市区南部、潜江市东南部以及公安县东北部,宜城市和京山县北部也适宜黄桃的种植;（4）最高及最低太阳辐射、最低气温、高程为影响黄桃生长的主要环境变量。结论 该研究成果能够为黄桃的空间布局优化与乡村振兴提供理论指导和决策依据。     

基于社会网络分析的长江经济带绿色发展水平研究

从经济发展、环境保护与社会进步的角度,根据城市绿色发展评价初选指标集,并结合R聚类-变异系数法,定量地筛选指标,从而建立科学全面的城市绿色发展水平评价指标体系。利用社会网络分析方法中的中心性概念建立基于社会网络分析的城市绿色发展评价模型,对2016年长江经济带主要城市的绿色发展水平和各个领域的单项实力从整体评价、梯度分布和空间格局3个维度进行了比较分析。研究结果表明,长江经济带各城市的绿色发展状况存在较大的区域差异,各个城市特色鲜明。最后,有针对性地提出了相应的对策建议。     

Forest transition in Northern Spain: Local responses on large-scale programmes of field-afforestation

Public field-afforestation schemes have been designed and widely implemented as a measure to alleviate uneven distribution, generate economic growth in rural areas and maintain or improve natural resources. The literature on forest management and planning has improved land-related information systems, allowing policy-makers to design and implement future policies on the allocation of forestland uses, and to forecast the land requirements of the target population more closely. The aim of this article is to empirically examine and validate the temporal and spatial land use changes and the socioeconomic effects linked to field-afforestation on private lands in the province of Lugo (Galicia, Northern Spain) at the municipal, parish and individual farm holding levels. Two main top-down field-afforestation programmes are reviewed in the study area: the national programme of public afforestations started with the implementation of Ley de Patrimonio Forestal del Estado (National Forest Estate Act; NFE) from 1941 to 2000, and the European aid scheme for forestry measures established under European Council Regulation No. 2080/1992 from 1993 to 1997. The results of a survey, targeted at 1355 farmers and conducted through questionnaires in the province of Lugo in 2004, complete the analysis of public intervention in forest management. The results indicate that the specific social, economic and environmental context of an agricultural and forestry area involves a differential heritage of land customs that determines a differential response model to forest programmes of land allocation and planning. Therefore, this must not be underestimated by the quantitative or qualitative general objectives of large-scale policies.     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.