我国未来人口发展与碳排放变动的模拟分析

构建人口-消费-碳排放系统动力学模型,对本世纪上半叶我国人口发展、经济增长、居民消费及碳排放进行动态仿真,定量考察未来我国人口发展与居民消费对碳排放的影响。在基准情景下,我国人口总数将于2032年达到峰值14.6亿人;一次能源消费总量将于2044年左右达到峰值63.6亿吨标准煤,碳排放总量将于2038年左右达到峰值约31.3亿吨碳;2050年我国人均碳排放量约为2.2吨碳,低于日本、欧洲1980年代以来的最低水平;居民消费碳排放的人均需求约为1.3吨碳,相当于美国居民1990年代后期排放水平的五分之一。从满足人口发展与居民基本生活需求的角度争取合理的碳排放空间,是我国争取国际气候谈判话语权的有力支撑点。     

The future of the global economy

Although world growth is continuous throughout history, the balance of power is constantly shifting from one nation to another. From Egypt to Ancient Greece and Rome, all the way through modern western civilization, different nations struggle for power through various ways such as: war, science and technology, arts, commerce, economical transactions, and other forms of interaction.In this article we use the assumption that global activity, as measured by real GDP, follows the well known s-curve of natural growth. Furthermore in order to model the relative power of specific regions, namely Western Countries, China and the rest of the world, we use the Logistic Substitution method developed by Nakicenovic and Marchetti. Estimates from the derived models are tested against actual data and linked to real historical events where appropriate.The bottom line of these forecasts is that World GDP will continue to rise in the next years, and will probably reach its peak growth by the end of the next decade. China's emergence as a superpower is verified and could have been predicted even as way back as 1985 by using the Logistic Substitution method. If the current trend persists it is expected to more than double its percentage contribution to the World's gross domestic product during the next two decades and exceed Western Countries' aggregated GDP by 2034 at a level of almost 40%. By the year 2024 though China's economy is expected to enter the substitution phase, as our world will most likely experience the emergence of a new “superpower” that will take its place, and once more will change the international landscape as we know it today.     

The Helios strategy: An heretical view of the potential role of solar energy in the future of a small planet

Over the next hundred years there must be a worldwide transition from reliance on fossil fuels to the use of some combination of long-term and abundant primary sources for the production of heat, electricity, and synthetic fuels. The rate at which such options can be developed and employed, as well as the maximum rate at which they can provide energy at a sustained rate, will place important constraints on the rate and limits to growth of other human activities. It is generally argued that only the fission option, in the form of the fast-breeder and high-temperature reactors, can provide the energy required for a livable world, particularly if this means a world of 10 billion people living at the present energy level of Western Europe. However, a careful examination indicates that the use of solar energy, through a menu of technological options, can provide the needs of a world at this scale of energy use, and that this can be accomplished within the constraints of land availability and requirements for energy, materials, and labor. No scientific breakthroughs are required, although a number of these would be helpful, but very substantial engineering advances are required, and the transition of such a world-wide system would take no less than a century. However, the feasibility of such large-scale use of solar energy will substantially alter those aspects of the “limits to growth” discussions in which future growth strategies are constrained by available and acceptable energy alternatives. This paper outlines a global solar-energy system considered feasible for more than 10 billion people living at 5 kW per capita.     

从USPTO专利数据看中国手机产业技术优势

采用专利计量分析方法,选取美、日、韩3个手机产业强国为标杆,对中国手机产业技术优势进行了国际比较研究。从USPTO专利库中获取手机产业相关专利数据,对中、美、日、韩4国在手机技术领域的RTA、FGSI和CV值进行测定,并绘制相应的FGSI-RAT技术象限图进行分析。结果表明：与国际手机产业标杆国相比,中国手机产业在光学、半导体器件等技术领域存在技术优势,日、韩为中国手机产业发展中的主要参考学习与竞争对象,而美国表现出的疲态可为中国手机产业未来发展与转型提供借鉴。     

我国手机回收结构特征及其科技政策内涵分析——基于技术产品生命周期的视角

废旧手机回收构成电子废弃物回收政策研究的新课题。在我国,手机生命周期的相关企业中,手机维修商和二手手机商回收贡献突出,而手机厂商和手机拆解商贡献不足,形成了"橄榄型"结构特征。这种"橄榄型"结构凸显支撑我国废旧手机回收的科技政策乃至电子废弃物回收科技政策,应该区别于发达国家,应该节约资源与治理环境并重,应该重点促进旧手机等旧物回收再利用技术的创新和扩散。     

China: A Major Economic Power?

For almost quarter of a century since the U.S. normalization of diplomatic relations with China and the beginning of economic reforms under the leadership of Deng Xioaping, two incidents virtually coinciding together, the PRC has achieved impressive, although not unprecedented, rates of economic growth. The future rate of growth of the Chinese economy will depend not only on continuing economic reforms, but also having a tolerable level of social unrest, and achieving a reasonable level of entrepreneurial and bureaucratic efficiency. On the international side, growth will require access to world markets for Chinese exports, continued access to foreign capital and technology, and regional peace. On current reckoning it seems that economic growth of anything between five and seven percent may continue for the forseeable future. This paper tries to analyze the problems and the prospects of China emerging as a major economic power and it's economic and political implications.     

Universal telecommunication service: A world perspective

Worldwide telecommunications demand is estimated in models for business and residential mainline telephone, and for mobile telephone service using separate models for developed and developing countries for the period 1996–2001. We test for cross-price elasticities between mainline and mobile service and find that the results are generally suggestive of current complementary relationships. We find residential monthly price elasticity to be no different than zero for a sample of developing countries, but the connection elasticity is statistically significant. Mobile monthly service elasticity is much larger than those for mainline service, suggesting that universal service in developing countries might be promoted more effectively with subsidies for mobile service. Income elasticities for the residential model are modest while the mobile service model income elasticity for developing countries is much higher. Expanding markets, income growth and enhanced education may be the ultimate universal service promoters.     

移动互联技术背景下知识型员工角色整合与创新

移动互联技术突破了社会角色的时间、空间、物理及心理边界，对于角色整合呈强推态势，使知识型员工角色向整合化、去情景化、重叠化及组合化趋势发展，从而出现角色整合的职场新现象。移动技术互联互通的特性赋予了知识型员工角色整合新的内涵，即整合趋势下角色边界是一种弱边界，呈现出角色对比度低、柔性边界和渗透性等边界特征，并表现为移动办公的工作形式。在相关研究的基础上，分析移动互联技术背景下知识型员工角色整合的新内涵、影响因素、影响结果以及边界工作策略，构建角色整合研究框架，并进一步探析知识型员工角色整合测量、因素、作用，以及移动技术在角色整合过程中的效用评价。     

教育与创新在“欧盟2020战略”中的核心地位解读

“欧盟2020战略”确立欧盟未来10年的奋斗目标是发展智能经济、建成更绿色的经济体、提升就业能力、加强社会凝聚力和实现知识经济社会。本文通过剖析教育和创新在该战略中所处的核心地位，进一步厘清欧盟重视教育和推动创新的总体思路：以教育促创新，以创新促增长，以增长促就业，以就业促和谐。这一发展思路不仅符合当今世界范围内改革与发展的潮流，而且值得我国在制定教育和创新发展战略时借鉴和参考。     

Forecasting and analyzing the competitive diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan with limited historical data

Taiwan experienced the rapid growth of mobile cellular broadband from 2005 by introducing 3G operations and had higher penetration than the average of the developing countries, the world, and even the developed countries. There are many forecasting models which were developed and successfully predicted the diffusion of long lifecycle product, but there are very few forecasting models which were developed for predicting new products with short lifecycle. Assumption of these models is always the growth of products follows an S-shaped curve. As for the products which were just introduced to the market, it is very difficult to identify if they follow an S-shaped curve with their limited historical data. This research aims to apply Grey system theory to predict the diffusion of mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband in Taiwan since Grey system theory has a characteristic which requires very limited primitive data (the least 4 data) to build a differential forecasting model. We use penetration as an indicator to describe the diffusion of new products. The numerical data show that the Grey forecasting models GM(1,1) built in this paper have higher prediction accuracy than logistic models and grey Verhulst models. Moreover, we apply Lotka–Volterra model to analyze the competitive relationship between mobile cellular broadband and fixed broadband. The empirical data show that the relationship is commensalism rather than predator–prey. These results can be extended to contribute to other researches.     

全球化背景下我国企业对外直接投资的动因研究

2006年10月16日,联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)发布了<2006年世界投资报告>.该报告指出,来自发展中国家和转型期经济体的外国直接投资(FDI)开始蓬勃兴起.2005年,发展中国家跨国公司对外直接投资额达到了创纪录的1200亿美元.特别是,中国在吸收外资保持世界第三的同时,自身的对外直接投资也呈现出快速增长的态势,中国跨国公司的崛起已经引起全球注目.我国对外直接投资快速增长的主要动因则是获取技术和融入全球供应链.     

Conjoint and WTP analyses of future mobile phones for digital convergence

Digital convergence for mobile phones is a hot issue. This study considers future development of mobile phones with a view toward consumers' usage and the amount they are willing to pay. In order to select preferable convergence technology, we utilize convergence concepts such as absorption, blending, and combination. The result of conjoint analysis shows that a preference for convergence technology will involve computing, media, navigation, and imaging. However, only the computing attribute increases consumers' willingness to pay. Our study results contribute to product planning and commercialization of innovative mobile phones.     

发达国家农业可持续增长的经验及启示——人口转型与技术进步

完成人口转型的发达国家中,土地、劳动力等传统农业生产要素已不再是农业增长的主要影响因素。而实际上人口转型已成为影响农业技术进步的决定性因素。文章基于1980-2000年14个已完成人口转型的发达国家面板数据的实证分析,通过农业技术与农业增长、人口转型与技术进步两个模型的检验结果,验证了发达国家农业人口数量的减少、受教育水平的提高对技术进步具有正向影响,通过对发达国家农业可持续增长的经验分析,得出中国农业可持续增长的关键为重视农村教育、加快农业人口转型以及提高农业科技投入。同时给出中国农业可持续增长的政策建议:利用教育投资的外溢效应促进农业人口转型,借助科技投入步入高效益农业可持续增长轨道。     

四川省互联网经济培育研究

自1994年4月20日中国正式接入国际互联网以来,互联网就一直影响着我们的生活。在这二十年里,互联网催生了新技术、新产品和新业务,进而催生了新经济增长(互联网经济)。互联网经济正在成为中国及世界解决就业难题的重要支柱产业、正在成为中国及世界经济增长新的驱动力、正在成为中国及世界经济结构自发转型升级的重要催化剂。四川物产丰富,但交通不便,发展互联经济显得尤为重要。     

World population growth and the role of annual energy use per capita

In the context of ongoing world population growth, no permanent growth in materials consumption can be sustained into the future. A sustainable future requires that the world's population stabilize. The author considers the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region, and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to stabilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the social conditions thought to influence the fertility rate. Historical trends and near-term projections for energy use and population growth rate are used to indicate a possible future path for developing regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and modest cultural changes are used in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth. For each decade, the incremental increase in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding decrease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach results in population changes which closely follow the projections of the World Bank for the period up to 2150. World energy use is projected to increase from about 9000 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) today to 15,000-21,000 Mtoe/a by the time the world's population has risen from 6 billion to about 12 billion in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to determine whether each developing region may be able to cope with its increased energy demand without massive energy imports. The availability of readily moveable, cheap fuels will help the developing world make the transition to a more stable population with a decent standard of living.     

中国政企客户移动信息化现状及策略研究

随着4G时代移动通信技术的发展,政企客户移动信息化市场成为中国电信运营企业发展战略中的重要战场。文章通过分析政企客户市场现状、移动信息化短板,采用德尔菲法构建影响政企客户移动信息化的指标体系,提出电信运营企业应在市场环境、产品价值、协同保障、员工能力、团队建设、创新投入、用户需求这七方面实施发展策略,从而提升电信运营企业的市场竞争力和客户感知度,促进中国政企客户移动信息化发展。     

Functionality development dynamism in a diffusion trajectory: A case of Japan's mobile phones development

While it is generally accepted that Information Technology (IT) has a self-propagating function which ensures that the more widespread its use, the greater its functionality, its emerging dynamism remains a black box.This paper attempts to shed some light on this dynamism through utilizing monthly trend data for the number of Japan's mobile phone subscribers over the last 12 years. A bi-logistic growth model demonstrating the diffusion trajectory initiated by both generations of mobile phones was constructed, with the goal of identifying the increase in the functionality development in the transition from traditional mobile phones with a simple communication function (1st wave mobile phone) to mobile phones with an Internet protocol function (2nd wave mobile phone).Through an empirical analysis utilizing the bi-logistic growth model, it was determined that the 2nd wave mobile phone emerged at an earlier stage of diffusion trajectory than the 1st stage mobile phone, which enabled a sustainable functionality development in Japan's mobile phones over the decade.Factors governing a dramatic decrease in mobile phones prices were analyzed, utilizing the result of the measurement of functionality development. This led to the discovery that while an increase in functionality development enhanced the price of mobile phones, this increase accelerated self-propagating diffusion, thereby enabling a dramatic reduction in prices through the effects of learning exercise and economies of scale.Based on the foregoing findings, the driving forces of self-propagating functionality development were analyzed, and it was determined that effective utilization of potential resources in innovation (e.g., assimilation of spillover technology and learning effects) is the key driving forces behind self-propagating functionality development.     

The forecasting of the mobile Internet in Taiwan by diffusion model

From the government's perspective, it is very important to estimate the growing path of the mobile Internet market and then to forecast the trend. The purpose of this paper is to propose a diffusion model that reveals the growth pattern of the mobile Internet subscriber in Taiwan utilizing the concepts of the “technical substitution” and the “multi-product competition”, which suits the characteristics in the mobile Internet market in Taiwan. From the regression results, the estimated ultimate market potential of GPRS is 6.4 million, which is going to saturate in about 2008Q1. On the other hand, the estimated range of the market potential of PHS/3G is about 7.2 to 8.0 million. That is, the total mobile Internet market in Taiwan is forecasted to be around 13.6 to 14.4 million subscribers.     

Forecasting with limited data: Combining ARIMA and diffusion models

Forecasting diffusion of new technologies is usually performed by the means of aggregate diffusion models, which tend to monopolize this area of research and practice, making the alternative approaches, like the Box-Jenkins, less favourable choices due to their lack of providing accurate long-term predictions. This paper presents a new methodology focusing on the improvement of the short-term prediction that combines the advantages of both approaches and that can be applied in the early stages of a diffusion process. An application of the methodology is also illustrated, providing short-term forecasts for the world broadband and mobile telecommunications' penetration. The results reveal that the methodology is capable of producing improved one-year-ahead predictions, after a certain level of penetration, as compared to the results of both methods individually. This methodology can find applications to all cases of the high-technology market, where a diffusion model is usually used for obtaining future forecasts. The paper concludes with the limitations of the methodology, the discussion on the application's results and the proposals for further research.     

世界科学技术活动中心转移规律再分析

通过对1901-2016年诺贝尔科学奖获得者国籍的计量分析,基本可以看出世界科学技术活动中心由德国转移到美国的大致状况以及当前世界科学技术研究发展态势：欧美国家是世界科学技术研究的重心,而美国是世界科学技术活动的中心,但是,这个地位并不是十分稳固的。随着各国对科学技术研究事业的重视,世界科学技术研究朝着多极化方向发展已初露端倪,这对于我国科技体制改革与科技政策调整具有重要启示意义。