中国进出口商品结构与经济增长关系的实证研究

出口商品结构与经济增长之间有较强的关系,进口商品结构与经济增长之间的关系不是很明显.进一步研究发现,进口商品结构与经济增长之闻不存在因果关系,工业制成品进口的增加并没有带动我国GDP的增长.同时GDP的增长也没有促进进口商品结构的优化;出口商品结构与经济增长之间存在单向的因果关系,出口商品结构的变化是GDP增长的原因,但是GDP的增长不是出口商品结构变化的原因,出口商品结构每提升一个百分点,经济增长将上升0.38%.因此,为了更好地促进中国经济的发展,应该进一步优化进出口商品结构,提高进出口对经济增长的带动作用.     

上海对外贸易与经济增长的协整分析

运用协整方法和误差修正模型,考察了上海对外贸易进口、出口、消费、投资与经济增长五者之间的关系。实证研究结果表明:对外贸易进口、出口、消费、投资与经济增长之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系,对外贸易出口与消费分别是经济增长的Granger原因,而经济增长则是投资的Granger原因;从短期来看,三者之间的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度较快,且消费的短期波动对中国经济增长的短期变化影响比较明显,进口和投资也在一定程度上影响GDP的变化。     

山东省进出口结构实证研究

进出口一直被认为是促进经济增长的重要因素。选取1984—2007年的山东省进出口贸易额及GDP作为研究对象,运用计量经济学分析方法中时间序列的平稳性检验及协整分析方法,对进口、出口及GDP三者的关系进行实证研究,结果表明,山东省进出口与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,进一步证明了三者之间存在协整关系,并且发现进口对经济增长的影响较出口更为显著。     

中美贸易及美在华投资与中国经济增长的关系——基于1983-2010年时间序列数据的实证研究

本文以1983-2010年间中国GDP、中美货物贸易以及美国在华直接投资等数据为基础,回顾了28年间中美经贸的概况,通过对数据进行可比性处理、平稳性分析、协整分析、向量误差修正模型(VECM)分析、格兰杰因果关系检验,得出了中美贸易、美国在华直接投资与中国经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系以及中美经贸是典型的互惠互利等结论,最后提出平衡两国贸易和投资的措施建议。     

人民币汇率变动对多国经济增长和产业结构影响的地缘经济分析

将全世界划分为10个国家(或地区),在全球经济一般均衡框架下,模拟并分析了不同汇率情景下各国和地区的经济增长和产业结构的变化。模拟结果显示:中国的GDP将于2035年超过美国;人民币升值会导致中国的GDP增速放缓,而对其他国家的GDP增长有促进作用;人民币贬值有利于中国GDP的增长,但不利于其他国家GDP的增长;人民币升值后,中国农业、轻工业和建筑业的比重下降,食品加工业、能源业、化学工业和重工业的比重上升,而印度和俄罗斯与中国在地缘经济上是竞争关系,欧美国家与中国在地缘经济上是合作关系,因此印度和俄罗斯的产业结构变化与中国大致相反,而欧美国家的产业结构变化趋势与中国类似。     

中国进口商品结构 及与贸易伙伴的关系研究

本文在对230种制成品按技术含量分类的基础上,利用最新的数据计算了中国进口技术结构的历史变迁与现状、19个国家和地区向中国的出口结构以及中国与贸易伙伴的相互依赖关系。研究结果表明：在1995-2011年期间,低技术含量制成品、中等技术含量制成品在中国进口中所占份额下降,初级制成品、资源型制成品、高技术含量制成品所占份额上升,高技术含量制成品早在2000年之前就超过中等技术含量制成品成为了中国第一大进口商品;不同类型国家及地区向中国出口的商品类型不同,它们在中国进口中的地位也不同;中国与日本、韩国、中国台湾之间的相互依赖关系都比较大,中国与美国、德国、法国、荷兰的相互依赖度比较小,中国进口对发展中大国、新兴发展中国家及地区的依赖程度都小于这些国家及地区出口对中国的依赖程度,中国是发展中大国、新兴发展中国家及地区的主要出口国。总的来说,中国对外贸易进口的发展具有共享性、包容性,不仅带动了发展中国家及地区的出口,还促进了发达国家的出口。     

新常态下我国房地产回调对经济增长的影响效应

近年来,我国房地产回调与宏观经济新常态并行,房地产主要指标与GDP增速的波动特征相似.本文构建自回归与误差修正模型,反映房地产与经济增长之间的短期影响与长期均衡动态关系.实证研究表明,我国房地产对GDP具有显著的弹性影响与长期均衡作用.自房地产显现回调以来,房地产投资与房价仍然是影响经济增长的先行指标,且短期影响显著增强;但商品房销售对经济增长的短期影响明显减弱.从长期来看,房地产信贷和土地成交价与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系,其影响系数较大.同时,房地产与经济增长的长期均衡关系发生偏离的调整速度明显加快,这有利于宏观经济运行保持平稳性.     

湖南进出口贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

根据1978--2007年湖南省进出口贸易与GDP的统计数据,运用协整分析技术、误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验,对进出口贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行了回归分析,结果表明,湖南进出口贸易与经济增长短期效应不显著,但存在长期的均衡关系,并进一步发现,虽然出口对湖南经济增长的拉动效应还不强,但出口对经济增长具有促进作用,而进口却抑制湖南经济增长。     

外商直接投资与经济增长的协整分析——基于贵州省数据的实证研究

针对外商直接投资促进经济增长的假设,我们根据1987-2006年贵州省GDP、FDI以及进出口的统计数据,建立向量误差修正模型,运用PP检验、协整及Granger因果关系检验分析外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系,研究结果表明,贵州省的外商直接投资、国际贸易与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且经济增长是出口、进口增长的Granger因,而经济增长与外商直接投资之间存在双向因果关系。     

基于VAR模型的辽宁省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文采用辽宁省从1990年到2014年的地区生产总值、出口总额和进口总额的时间序列数据,建立三者之间动态关系的向量自回归模型(VAR),对对外贸易与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析.结果表明:辽宁省对外贸易与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系;进口和出口均对经济增长具有促进作用.     

Vintage Effects In Human Capital: Europe Versus The United States

The standard assumption in growth accounting is that an hour worked by a worker of given type delivers a constant quantity of labor services over time. This assumption may be violated due to vintage effects, which were shown to be important in the United States since the early 1980s, leading to an underestimation of the growth of labor input (Bowlus anA1d Robinson, 2012). We apply their method for identifying vintage effects to a comparison between the United States and six European countries. We find that vintage effects led to increases of labor services per hour worked by high-skilled workers in the United States and United Kingdom and decreases in Continental European countries between 1995 and 2005. Rather than a productivity growth advantage of the US and UK, the primary difference with Continental European countries was human capital vintage effects instead.     

The time-varying characteristics of the Chinese financial cycle and impact from the United States

ABSTRACT

Although there have been many empirical studies about the financial cycle since the financial crisis of 2008, few have analysed the structural changes in the Chinese financial cycle over time. The Chinese financial development process is short, and it is difficult to obtain accurate results on the measurement of the financial cycle. Based on wavelet analysis, this paper analyzes the time-varying characteristics of the Chinese financial cycle and the relationship between the financial and business cycles. In addition, we measure the impact from the United States. This paper draws three conclusions. Firstly, in terms of the characteristics of cycles, the existence of Chinese business cycle and financial cycle is proved, while the credit cycle, leverage cycle, stock market cycle and property cycle are quite different. Specifically, China has a 5.8-year credit cycle, an 8-year stock market cycle, 3.4-year and 12-year business cycles and a 15-year leverage cycle. Secondly, the financial cycles can serve as leading indicators of the business cycle, though the relationships between them are change overtime. Finally, the United States has a significant impact on the Chinese financial cycle with a ‘decoupling-recoupling’ effect, which is mainly reflected in the leverage cycle and the stock market cycle.     

中国经济与美、日经济波动的相关性研究

中国经济与美、日经济波动有很强的相关性和长期的均衡关系，美国经济与中国经济间有正向关系；日本与中国经济间却是负向关系。美、日两国经济的共同波动会通过资本流动的渠道影响中国。因此，为了降低美日经济波动对中国的影响，中国贸易必须走多元化的路子，而且应减少对国外资金流入的依赖。     

美国金融危机成因分析及对中国的警示

美国金融危机引发全球金融市场动荡。这场金融危机从美国的房地产市场开始，以惊人的速度蔓延，波及至信贷市场、资本市场，封全球尤其是西方金融机构和金融市场造成重大冲击，短期内升级为全球金融风暴。中国目前正处于资产价格上涨、信贷投放过度的经济环境之中，美国的金融危机给中国敲响了警钟。本文通过描述此次危机的发展脉络，在分析美国金融危机背景的基础上，从强化房地产按揭贷款业务风险管理，审慎推进资产证券化等六个方面得出了对中国的警示。     

探析我国追求GDP增长的代价

我国从1985年开始按照联合国推荐的1968年版SNA的基本原则和方法进行GDP核算,至今已有20多年。过去20多年里,在GDP取得惊人增长的同时,我们也付出了巨大代价—经济增长的质量低下、经济安全的基石被侵蚀、可持续发展的基础遭削弱。     

Regime‐dependent effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth: evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States

Employing a bivariate regime switching model, this paper attempts to examine the regime‐dependent effects of inflation uncertainty and output growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Using monthly data of the United Kingdom and the United States, we provide evidence that both nominal and real uncertainty exert regime‐dependent impacts on inflation. Furthermore, in case of both the countries, inflation uncertainty has adverse impact on output growth mainly during the period of economic contraction. Also, for these two countries, it can be argued that higher real uncertainty significantly reduces output growth only in their respective low output growth regimes.     

A comparison of the spatial distribution of innovative activities in China and the U.S.

In order to enhance the independent innovation capability and help China to become an “innovation-oriented country” this article compares the spatial distribution of innovative activities between China (representing a typical developing country) and the United States. We also provide some recommendations for China and other developing countries to optimize the spatial distribution of their innovative activities. Using invention patents as an indicator gathered from the websites of the CSIPO and the USPTO, this paper compares the spatial distribution of innovative activity in China and the U.S. by methods such as rank-frequency, concentration and classification. The results show that the invention patents have experienced rapid growth and significant fluctuation in recent years in China, while the United States has been relatively stable. The spatial diversity of patent distribution in China is more obvious than in the United States. There is a concentrated trend of innovative activities in both China and the United States from the inland areas to the coastal regions.     

Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

Abstract. Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.     

美国科技创新实力及创新体系优劣势分析

美国在世界经济中的霸主地位,很大程度上取决于其科技创新实力。美国创新实力强,整体竞争力表现突出;基础研究能力强,科技论文产出世界领先;企业创新能力强,技术创新成果大量涌现。美国政府非常重视创新,不断出台新政策促进创新,提高对创新基础要素的投资,支持创新的商业环境,并且,产学官结合紧密。美国政府是科技创新的重要推手,美国国家创新体系有着独特的优势,而且这种优势有望继续为美国经济增长提供重要支撑。     

A spatial taxonomy of broadband regions in the United States

The steady growth of broadband penetration in the United States is indicative of a major shift in advanced data services and last-mile infrastructure in the deregulated telecommunication environment. Although there are concerns with the equitable provision of broadband services in urban, rural and remote areas, the diffusion process has also created a unique landscape of broadband availability that reflects elements of competition, federal policy, local government initiatives, technological limitations and location. This paper explores the dynamic and diverse spatial landscape of broadband availability in the United States at the zip code level, for 2004. In addition, this study provides a multivariate, spatial taxonomy of broadband regions, highlighting their socioeconomic and demographic differences.