西部地区产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析--以云南省为例

本文运用基于VAR模型的动态计量分析方法,对云南省1978—2010年三大产业与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明：云南省的产业结构与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系且这种均衡关系具有反向修正机制;其第一、二产业对经济增长有显著的长期正向效应,第三产业对经济增长的正向效应则一直比较稳定,而经济增长对第一、三产业有着显著的长期正向效应,对第二产业则体现为显著的短期正向效应。因此,云南省产业结构和经济增长之间存在着正向的互馈关系,这种互馈关系具有不对称性。     

西部地区产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析--以云南省为例

本文运用基于VAR模型的动态计量分析方法,对云南省1978-2010年三大产业与经济增长的关系进行实证分析.研究结果表明:云南省的产业结构与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系且这种均衡关系具有反向修正机制;其第一、二产业对经济增长有显著的长期正向效应,第三产业对经济增长的正向效应则一直比较稳定,而经济增长对第一、三产业有着显著的长期正向效应,对第二产业则体现为显著的短期正向效应.因此,云南省产业结构和经济增长之间存在着正向的互馈关系,这种互馈关系具有不对称性.     

企业规模、动态竞争行为与企业绩效——基于高科技民营上市公司面板数据北大核心CSSCI

本文在将动态竞争行为分为研发竞争行为和营销竞争行为的基础上,对高科技民营上市公司基于规模变化的动态竞争行为选择倾向及其价值创造效应进行了实证分析,得出以下结论:企业规模与研发竞争行为之间存在显著正向相关性;企业规模与营销竞争行为之间存在显著负向相关性;企业动态竞争行为对企业绩效存在正向影响,且研发竞争行为与营销竞争行为相比,研发竞争行为对绩效提升作用更强。同时,本文还考察了资本结构在企业规模与动态竞争行为选择关系中的调节作用。结果表明,资本结构在企业规模与动态竞争行为选择关系中存在显著调节作用,具体表现为,随着资产负债的增加,企业规模对研发竞争行为的正向影响会逐渐削弱,对营销竞争行为的负向影响会逐渐强化。     

消费波动对经济增长影响的实证研究

在金融信用危机爆发、国外需求不振的情况下,内需已经成为经济平稳增长的首要因素。笔者研究了改革开放以来我国消费与经济增长之间的关系,并且分城镇和农村研究了消费构成的经济增长效应。实证研究发现,我国消费增加1%,当期经济增长提高0.7个百分点;前一期消费与本期经济增长之间存在负相关关系,消费增长率和经济增长率之间存在正向关系;城镇居民消费是经济增长的格兰杰原因,但农村居民消费并不满足这一结论。     

我国垄断行业收入与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于面板协整理论

基于1990—2008年我国垄断行业收入的面板数据,通过面板协整、Engle-Granger检验以及运用误差修正模型对我国垄断行业的收入水平与经济增长的长期关系进行分析。研究结果显示:与能源、交通相关的垄断行业的收入与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系;与能源相关的垄断行业的收入对经济增长具有正向影响,而与交通相关的垄断行业的收入对经济增长的影响不太显著;金融保险业和房地产业的收入与经济增长之间并不存在长期稳定的面板协整关系。     

旅游业人力资本对我国区域旅游经济增长的影响研究

旅游业人力资本是影响区域旅游经济增长的重要因素。文章利用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验和面板数据回归分析方法,就全国层面及东部、中部和西部三大区域的旅游人力资本对旅游经济增长的影响进行实证研究。格兰杰因果检验表明,全国层面和西部地区的高等旅游人力资本、中等旅游人力资本与国内和国际旅游经济增长存在显著的格兰杰因果关系,旅游业从业人员与国内旅游经济增长存在显著的格兰杰因果关系,但与国际旅游经济增长的格兰杰因果关系不显著;东部和中部地区的高等旅游人力资本、中等旅游人力资本与旅游业从业人员均与国内和国际旅游经济增长存在显著的格兰杰因果关系。面板数据回归分析表明：在全国层面,高等旅游人力资本对国内旅游经济增长具有显著正向影响;在区域层面,高等旅游人力资本对西部地区的国内旅游经济增长和中部地区的国际旅游经济增长具有显著正向影响,中等旅游人力资本对中部地区的国内和国际旅游业具有显著正向影响,旅游业从业人员对东部和西部地区的国内旅游经济增长具有显著正向影响。基于研究结论,文章提出了制定我国旅游业人力资本政策时在坚持因地制宜、有所侧重原则下不同区域应采取的相关对策。     

中国信用活动与经济增长的动态关系分析

文章根据2000—2010年统计数据,通过时间序列协整方法,分析了中国信用活动和经济增长之间的相互影响情况。结果表明:我国信用活动与经济增长之间具有长期均衡关系;经济增长是信用活动的格兰杰原因,长期内经济增长对信用活动作用显著。文章根据定量分析的结果,对当前构建我国的社会信用体系提出了相应的政策建议。     

正规金融体系改革、内部资金乘数效应与中国企业总资产增长——以1994—2011年中国上市公司数据为例

本文使用1994—2011年中国非金融类上市公司数据,分析了中国正规金融体系改革对降低企业内部资金的乘数效应进而对企业总资产增长产生的影响。本文发现不同的改革阶段对企业增长的影响不同:在金融市场化改革初期1994—2000年,金融部门的规模、效率和相对结构变化均对企业资产增长产生正向作用;2001年之后银行的规模扩张和效率提升显著地促进了企业成长,而股市对企业资产增长的作用不明显,金融体系的结构变动对企业增长的影响不大。本文的研究表明中国金融体系的顶层设计直接影响着金融与实体经济之间的关系;在中国金融发展-经济增长模式中,金融体系的规模特别是银行部门的规模扩张起了主要作用;调整金融结构、提高直接融资比重有利于进一步发挥金融体系促进企业资产增长的功能。     

西藏职业教育与经济增长关系研究李国栋,张晓莉,徐爱燕

研究西藏地区职业教育与经济增长之间是否存在稳定关系,以及各变量对经济增长的影响大小,对西藏职业教育相关政策的制定具有一定参考价值.本文运用协整理论,使用2006-2015年西藏自治区职业教育与经济增长的相关数据,分析西藏职业教育与经济增长的关系.研究发现,职业教育支出、学生人均教师量及毕业生数量对经济增长有显著正向影响,因此职业教育对促进西藏地区经济增长具有重要的意义.     

政府支出、产业结构与经济增长

基于2007～2016年的省级面板数据,构建对称和非对称倒"U"方程检验民生支出对经济增长的影响以及产业结构对其效果的影响,对最优民生支出和偏离最优规模的效率损失进行测度,然后研究消费和生产性支出对经济增长的影响以及产业结构对其效果的影响。研究结果表明:民生支出与经济增长之间存在非对称倒"U"关系,多数省份低于最优规模,但正向最优规模靠拢;产业结构会提高最优民生支出规模,东部和中部地区的民生支出规模低于最优规模,但西部地区已经达到甚至超过了最优规模,偏离最优民生支出的效率损失从东、中到西依次递减;消费和生产性支出对经济增长的影响为负,产业结构对消费性支出效果的影响不显著,但会减轻生产性支出的抑制效应;产业升级对经济增长的促进作用会随着民生和生产性支出的扩张而增大,但受消费性支出扩张的影响很小。     

发展中国家内、外资银行信贷行为差异分析

众多发展中国家的金融改革实践表明,银行业开放的正负效应并不具有显著的国别一般性,特别是在信贷稳定性上,在东道国和外资银行母国经济运行的不同时期,外资银行与东道国国内银行的信贷行为可能存在较大的差异性,进而对东道国的经济金融稳定带来不同的影响。本文从全球范围内抽取了21个发展中国家（地区）和转轨国家中的400余家内、外资银行为样本,以其在2002～2010年间的相关数据构成面板数据集,来对内、外资银行在此期间的信贷行为差异进行检验。研究发现,外资银行的信贷行为确实与国内银行存在着差异性,主要表现在外资银行的信贷增长既表现出与东道国的经济增长显著正相关,又明显受到母国经济状况的影响;在经济正常的年份里,外资银行的信贷表现更多的取决于东道国的经济状况,而当外资银行母国发生经济危机时,却会对外资银行的信贷增长造成较大的负向冲击。     

非正规金融与正规金融:互补还是替代?——基于DSGE模型的相互作用机制研究

文章通过建立四部门动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了二元金融体系下正规金融与非正规金融部门之间的作用机制,并对模型进行数值模拟。研究发现,在居民消费偏好冲击和技术冲击两种情况下,正规金融与非正规金融部门之间主要是互补关系,表现为两部门贷款利率和贷款规模的同向变动;而在货币政策冲击下,两部门短期内呈现相互替代的关系。     

Do Financial and Institutional Variables Enhance the Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean? A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Using recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration tests and the Fully-Modified OLS methodology (FMOLS), this paper estimates the impact of remittances on the economic growth of selected upper and lower income Latin American & Caribbean (LAC) countries over the 1990–2007 period. Despite the large flow of remittances to the region, there have been relatively few empirical studies assessing the impact of remittances on economic growth in LAC. Panel unit root tests suggest that several of the macro variables included in the model exhibit unit roots, yet, at the same time, Pedroni’s panel cointegration test determined that there is a cointegrating relationship among the variables in the estimated model. The FMOLS estimates suggest that remittances have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both groups of countries. The estimates also indicate that both the degree of economic freedom and credit provided by the banking system have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in upper (middle) income LAC countries. The sign of the interaction term between remittances and the credit (and EFI) variables suggest that remittances act as substitutes for these variables. Finally, the effect of remittances on both sets of countries is stronger in the presence of a financial (credit) variable.     

The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate

Using cross-country cross-industry data, this paper explores how industry’s growth in number of firms in Central-East Europe (CEE) region is influenced by bank concentration in both the pre-crisis and crisis periods. The CEE region shows highly concentrated banking markets and less-developed financial markets; thus, the level of bank concentration and the resulting credit supply are crucial for firm creation and survival. Despite this, there is little evidence on these countries in the literature. Our empirical results suggest an inverted-U relationship: industry growth is fostered by bank concentration, but there is a turning point from which higher concentration begins producing the opposite effect. Moreover, the positive impact has a greater intensity during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Between sectors’ analysis shows that high-tech sectors are less reactive to changes in the concentration level.     

非正规部门竞争与企业创新行为关系研究

非正规部门快速发展在缓解中国就业压力、满足低端需求和促进经济增长的同时,对中国制造业企业经营带来了很大影响。基于2012年世界银行营商环境调查数据,分析非正规部门灰色竞争对中国制造业企业创新活动的影响。研究发现：非正规部门灰色竞争显著增加企业研发投入倾向和研发投入强度;灰色竞争与企业产品创新活动有显著正相关关系,但未发现与企业流程创新活动有显著关系;制造业中高新技术企业创新活动受非正规部门灰色竞争的影响相对较弱。用工具变量控制内生性后,以上结论依然成立。为了应对非正规部门的灰色竞争,制造业企业应不断强化研发投入,通过模仿创新和微创新的方式加速产品更新升级,以区分于非正规部门的产品。     

Does financial liberalization matter for emerging East Asian economies growth? Some new evidence

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth in East Asian region. The empirical literature suggests that there is a mixed link between financial liberalization and growth in emerging countries. Panel data techniques using LS, TSLS, and GMM are employed to shed some light on the empirical debate, we examine this issue in 6 major emerging East Asian countries over the period 1980–2002. The main result is that financial liberalization's growth effect depends on the nature as well as the intensity of financial sectors liberalization. Full liberalization of the financial sector has been associated with slower growth outcomes while more moderate partial liberalization is associated with more positive outcomes.     

Financial deregulation,credit allocation across sectors,and economic growth: evidence from China

This paper investigates whether financial deregulation causes economic growth through financial development. Financial development is measured by two channels: (1) changes in the allocation of credit across sectors, and (2) changes in savings and investment rates. We measure financial deregulation in China at the provincial level from 1981 to 1998. Our results suggest that financial reform causes economic growth in China. Further, its effect largely comes through the reallocation of credit across sectors, rather than changes in savings and investment rates.     

Competition,taxation and economic growth

The paper mainly examines the relationship between economic growth, tax policy and sectoral labor distribution in an endogenous growth model with expanding varieties. For analyzing these relationships, we consider an economy where three sectors of production are vertically integrated: final goods sector, intermediate goods sector and research sector. We show that the extent of imperfect competition in the intermediate products market affects both economic growth and the allocation of the available labor to all the sectors employing this input. The resources from capital taxation, which are used for financing research sector, have a U-shaped effect on growth and lead to a movement of the labor from research sector to final goods sector. Additionally, we show that if there exists a higher competitive structure in an economy, the probability of the positive effect of an increase in tax on growth gets higher.     

Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Kenya for the period 1966–2005 within a quadvariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework by including exports and imports as additional variables to the finance–economic growth nexus. We use four conventionally accepted proxies for financial development, namely money supply (M2), liquid liabilities (M3), domestic bank credit to the private sector and total domestic credit provided by the banking sector (all percent of GDP). Applying a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T., Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics 1995; 66; 225–250], our empirical results suggest that in three out of the four measures of financial development we found evidence of a two-way Granger causality: (1) between domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth; (2) between total domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth, and (3) between liquid liabilities and economic growth. This implies that neither the supply-leading nor the demand-following hypotheses are supported in Kenya and that economic growth and financial development are jointly determined, or they complement each other. A major implication of our finding is that financial development promotes economic growth in Kenya and that policies at enhancing the development of the financial sector can help to spur economic growth.