中国居民消费需求不足原因研究——基于中国城乡分省数据

This paper uses Chinese urban and rural panel data for 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (except Tibet and Taiwan) on the consumption of Chinese urban and rural households in 1995–2005, by constructiong a random effect model, to analyze the impact of sources of household’s consumption demand on the Chinese economy. The quantitative analysis reveals that the per capita disposable income of households is highly relevant in explaining households’ per capita consumption expenditure, in these eleven years, and that China’s consumption function was fairly stable. On the basis of flow of funds accounts (barter transaction) data in 1992–2004, the paper further reveals that, since 1997–1998, China’s consumer demand remains in the doldrums because of the following distribution and redistribution process of the national income: The Government’s share of total income and disposable income is becoming ever larger, while the share of households is declining. Aside from the result that a rise in the burden of personal tuition has a negative impact on per capita consumption demand for urban households, we have not found that housing reform or medical expenses significantly reduce consumer demand in China. We believe that low household consumption demand is caused mainly by the income redistribution between households, government, and corporations rather than the inequality in income distribution across households.     

An emprical model of the demand for a varied diet

This study attempts to measure some aspects of the household's demand for a varied die by invesigaing how he number of individual foods consumed b he household is affeced b is preferences and food expendiure. A heoriical model suggesed b household production theory is adopted to empirical data from a cross-section of households. It is found that the number of individual foods consumed is strongly responsive to househjold expenditure on all foods.     

Effects of Changes in Household Size,Consumer Taste & Preferences on Demand Pattern in India

Current research in applied demand analysis has been addressing the twin issues of degree of non-linearity or curvature of the Engel curves and the ability to capture price effects appropriately by the demand system. Further, in addition to income and prices, the role of demographic variables like household size, composition and dynamic aspects like consumer taste & preferences are also being ’ emphasized in recent literature. Continuous efforts are being made to modify the existing models and propose new ones to incorporate the above developments. The purpose of this study is to re-examine the usefulness of the popular linear expenditure system vis-à-vis the two other flexible models viz. Nasse expenditure system, a generalization of the linear expenditure system itself, and the almost ideal demand system in the above context for India.The empirical results indicate wide variation in marginal budget shares and demand elasticities across income groups, rural-urban sectors and alternative models. The household size and consumer taste & preferences are found to be statistically significant. The results confirm the earlier findings that there are significant changes in consumer tastes away from cereals and pulses in favor of other food and nonfood commodities. The results also show that flexible models, which are theoretically superior, gave unacceptable positive price responses for some commodities and violated second order conditions of utility maximization. It is found that some ad-hoc separability restrictions are needed, thereby limiting the flexibility of the model, to get negative own-price responses in these models. But, second order conditions are still violated. The tests of nested hypotheses also confirm the need for inclusion of household size, consumer taste, income group and rural-urban dummies along with their interaction variables in the demand system.

     

Food security in Kenya: Insights from a household food demand model

This paper evaluates the household food security situation in Kenya in terms of access to food. We apply a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model to nationally representative household survey data from Kenya, and estimate and interpret price and expenditure elasticities as indicators of household sensitivity to market shocks. Our estimation results show positive expenditure elasticities, close to unity, while all compensated and uncompensated own-price elasticities are negative and smaller in magnitude. A complementary welfare analysis shows high compensated variations in the long run, ranging between 34% and 131% across food groups. This suggests that rising relative food costs have led to deterioration of the food security situation in Kenya, and the most severely affected households seem to be those that rely on informal markets and reside in rural areas. To improve food security, targeted income support could be a more effective policy than price support, given the much higher estimated expenditure elasticities.     

The demand for casino gaming

In this study an econometric model is developed to examine the determinants of the demand for casino gaming, specifically the demand for slot machine wagering at riverboats and racinos. In addition to examining the effects of traditional demand variables, the effect on wagering of variables such as location of a wagering facility and of government restrictions, is examined. A unique measure of accessibility of market area customers to a facility and to competing facilities was developed. The demand for wagering at a facility was found to increase as access by customers in its market area increases and to decrease as access by its customers to competing riverboats, racinos or Indian casinos increases. Government restrictions were found to have an adverse effect on wagering at a riverboat. On the other hand, wagering at a riverboat was found to increase when such restrictions were imposed on competing riverboats. The presence of total loss limits and restrictions on boarding times at a riverboat were found to have reduced wagering by 36% and 35%, respectively. With respect to traditional demand variables, slot machine wagering demand was found to be price elastic at the beginning of the sample period declining to slightly below unit elasticity by the end of the period. Table games offered at a gaming facility were found to be substitutes for slot machines. Demand was found to be negatively related to per capita income at lower income levels and positively related at higher income levels. The proportion of income wagered was found to be greater at upper and lower income levels relative to middle income levels. Demand was found to be positively related to days of operation and number of slot machines.     

The US retail demand for fish products: an application of the almost ideal demand system

The main objective is to address the limitations of past US fish demand research through the development of a variation of the almost ideal demand system model for disaggregate fish products at the retail level. Price and expenditure elasticities, as well as elasticities of substitution between fish products and other protein commodities, determined from this work may be used in the context of fisheries management and market development and promotion. Results indicate that with the exception of shellfish, demand for the various fish products is relatively inelastic. Cross-price elasticities are generally moderate while expenditure elasticities are large and positive for fresh fish and shellfish. Demographic effects, especially geographical division, season, race, occupation, age–sex household composition, and price–income interaction, as a proxy for quality, are highly significant variables.     

论全球性食品和能源危机的应对策略

本文借助现有文献和中国城乡住户抽样调查统计说明,中国的食品和能源价格上涨幅度虽然低于国际市场,但已对低收入住户的家计造成冲击。城市低收入户用低价食品替代高价食品;农户实际消费总支出降低,恩格尔系数增大,衣着和燃料支出比重减少。农户的膳食更加不均衡,贫困群体的营养不足状况加剧。因此,需要全社会共同行动,由政府采取应急措施,停止补贴以食品为原料的生物能源企业,瞄准贫困人口实施食品救助。需要采取的中长期策略是,遏制垄断,改善竞争环境,消除食品和能源价格扭曲。长期改革政策在于,调整社会结构,校正要素价格形成机制,转变经济增长方式。     

Impacts of the distribution of households across income groups in a differential demand system for orange juice

This study examines the effects of the distribution of households across income groups on the Rotterdam demand model’s income and price responses. The model’s marginal propensities to consume and Slutsky coefficients are specified as varying parameters dependent on the portions of households falling in different income categories. This specification was used to analyze the demand for different orange-juice products across 52 US cities. The results indicate that for these products the distribution of households across income groups is an important determinant of the model coefficients.     

Firm turnover,restructuring and labour productivity in transition: the case of Poland

Many studies have found strong and positive relationship between per capita income and health care expenditure. These studies usually adopt the assumptions that (1) the relationships among the variables are constant; and/or (2) the supply-side market for health care could be treated by using standard demand functions models. To take into account of the supply side of health care, we use the demand and supply approach with the cointegration model to re-examine this issue. By using Taiwan health care expenditure data, our results show that the real income elasticity is smaller than unity and the health care expenditures are primarily for ‘curing’ rather than ‘caring’.     

Estimating Telephone Demand with State Decennial Census Data from 1970–1990: Update with 2000 Data

Adding the 2000 decennial census data to our pooled logit model results in much stronger evidence that targeted subsidy programs to add poor households to the network are ineffective and very costly. Untargeted programs are about nine times more expensive than targeted programs. Overall higher penetration rates are fueled by the declining real price of access and rapid income growth in the 1990s. In addition, our estimate of the first integrated access and new services model with 2000 decennial census data suggests that cell phones and Internet are, in part, responsible for the recent surge in penetration, but precise estimates are difficult without price information.     

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF HOUSING DEMAND: ESTIMATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS*

Using data from the PSID, we estimate a dynamic model of housing demand with nonconvex adjustment costs, credit constraints, and uncertainty about income and home prices. We simulate how consumer behavior responds to house price and income declines as well as tightening credit. In response to a negative home price shock, households early in the life cycle climb the housing ladder more quickly and invest more in housing assets due to the lower price. With a concurrent negative income shock, however, housing demand falls among young and middle aged households who stay in smaller homes rather than to trade up.     

Food expenditures and household demographic composition in the US: a demand systems approach

Food expenditures and subsistence quantities of poverty status and non–poverty status US households are analysed within a Linear Expenditure System that postulates subsistence quantities to be linear combinations of demographic variables. Using the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' 1992 Consumer Expenditure Survey and Detailed Monthly Consumer Price Indices, this article obtains expenditure elasticities, own–price elasticities and subsistence quantities for each income group across nine broadly aggregated food commodity groups. Elasticity estimates and subsistence quantity estimates differ across income groups, supporting the premise that policies targeted at specific income groups should be based on the target group's elasticity estimates rather than average population elasticities. Parameter estimates are then used to simulate how subsistence quantities and own–price elasticities can be expected to vary according to the demographic composition of the household within a specific income group.     

Demand for cigarettes in Turkey: an application of count data models

Household cigarette demand in Turkey is examined using the zero-inflated negative binomial model to account for a large portion of households not reporting cigarette smoking or purchase and estimated using the data from the national household survey implemented in 2003. Data were divided into two main groups: families with and without teenagers. Results identify relevant household head and household characteristics needed to develop effective public policy to prevent the decision to begin to smoke and to reduce cigarette purchase to lower the future growth of government healthcare expenditures. Specifically, healthcare expenditure share, income, and cigarette-price elasticities are relevant in lowering cigarette purchases. The calculated price elasticities for cigarette demand falls within the range determined by studies conducted for developed countries including the member states of the European Union. An estimate of the effect of an increase in the excise tax lowering demand is provided.     

Economies of scale and scope in petroleum refining

Despite evidence that aggregate consumption of complex carbohydrates has risen over the last decade, food consumption surveys suggest that fewer households are consuming less bread, pasta rice, potatoes and corn. This paper estimates systems of complex carbohydrae demand using cross-sectional data from 1977–78 and 1987–88 in order to explain this paradox. Changes in demand that are not explained by changes in prices or income are explained by variations in taste. Because tastes cannot be directly observed, the paper uses a multiple indicator and multiple cause (MIMIC) model to construct a suitable proxy variable. In the MIMIC approach, the ‘indicators’ are residuals from a household demand function that includes prices and incomes as explanatory variables, while household and demograhic proxies are ‘cause’ variables. The objectives in applying the MIMIC model are to determine the effect of consumer tastes on complex carbohydrate demand and, comparing cross-sectional survey data from two different periods, test the hypothesis that these tastes change over time. The data consist of US complex carbohydrate prices and expenditures, taken from the USDA Household Food Consumption Surveys in 1977–78 and 1987–88. The results show that structural changes in demand, or those that are not explained by changes in price, income, or the cause variables, led to an increase in complex carbohydrate demand of 5% from 1977–78 to 1987–88. However, changes in demand explained by the cause variables cause demand to fall by 9%.     

The household demand for energy and fuels in OECD countries

This paper estimates the household demand for energy and fuels. The linear expenditure model is estimated using data from eight OECD countries over a period of sixteen years. The basic similarities in household demand for fuels and the differences among OECD countries are discussed. The results indicate that household demand for energy is highly income dependent. With regard to four basic fuels, the income and price elasticities for gasoline and gas are higher than for either coal or oil. The demand patterns are shown to differ significantly among groups of OECD countries. Coal has been gradually replaced by oil as the major household fuel in OECD countries, whereas the demand pattern for gas has changed only a little during the fifties and sixties.     

The demand for alcohol in the United Kingdom

Using the AIDS model, we show that there exists for the UK a stable long-run relationship between expenditure shares on beer, cider, spirits and wine, alcohol prices, total alcohol expenditure and a range of non-economic variables relating to advertising, licensing, the employment, social class and demographic characteristics of consumers, and climate. Our estimates of key price and income elasticities generally lie between those found from other time-series studies (which exclude most of these non-economic variables) and those found from cross-section studies (which generally include them). However, the restrictions required for separability, homegeneity and symmetry (although not those for perfect price aggregation) are decisively rejected.     

Welfare analysis of tax reforms using household data

This paper discusses a methodology for calculating the distribution of gains and losses from a policy change using data for a large sample of households. Estimates are based on the equivalent income function, which is money metric utility defined over observable variables. This enables calculations to be standardised and a computer program to compute the statistics presented in the paper is available for a general demand system. Equivalent income is related to measures of deadweight loss, and standard errors are computed for each of the welfare measures. An application to U.K. data for 5,895 households is given which simulates a reform that involves eliminating housing subsidies.     

Energy Consumption for Space Heating: A Discrete–Continuous Approach

Energy demand for space heating is estimated using a discrete–continuous choice model which focuses on the relationship between the choice of heating equipment and energy consumption. The model is estimated on Norwegian micro data, and the two stages of the model are estimated simultaneously. The capital cost and the operating cost of the heating systems are both found to have a significant impact on the choice of heating system. Furthermore, the results show that household characteristics are important variables in residential energy models. Energy price elasticities and income elasticities are also estimated.     

食品价格上涨对城镇家庭消费与福利影响研究——基于EASI模型

文章基于与2015年度诺贝尔经济学奖得主迪顿的接近理想需求系统 AIDS 来源相同的EASI需求系统 ,采用CHNS调查数据 ,运用 EASI需求系统实证分析了各类食品价格上涨对不同收入等级城镇家庭消费与福利的影响 ,并比较了收入补贴与价格补贴的经济效果.研究发现:(1)我国城镇居民动物性食品消费支出占食品总支出的比重最大 ,其次是粮食和蔬菜 ,城镇居民的食品消费结构为"动物性食品+粮食+蔬菜" ,这说明动物性食品价格上涨对我国城镇居民日常膳食消费的影响相对较大.(2)粮食价格对困难户和最低收入家庭的福利影响最大 ,动物性食品价格对较低收入家庭的福利影响最大.(3)对低收入家庭而言 ,当动物性食品价格上涨时 ,收入补贴政策的效果优于价格补贴政策 ;当粮食价格上涨时 ,价格补贴政策的效果优于收入补贴政策.文章最后从生产、补贴政策和分配制度的角度提出了政策建议.     

Measuring the Welfare Effects of Price Changes: A Convenient Parametric Approach

This paper shows how compensating and equivalent variations, and the equivalent income, resulting from a set of price changes can be calculated. A linear expenditure system is estimated for each of a range of total expenditure groups using cross-sectional budget data. The measures of welfare change can be used to determine the effect on the welfare of individuals in different income groups. Alternative social welfare functions can be used to evaluate the resulting distribution of equivalent income. The parametric approach is particularly useful where few data are available