Is research on marginal lands catching up? The case of unfavourable wheat growing environments⋆

It is widely believed that the Green Revolution had very little effect in unfavourable or marginal environments. Many researchers have been concerned about the slow progress of technical change in marginal environments and the level of research resources allocated to these areas. This paper provides empirical evidence that there has been significant growth in wheat yield potential in marginal environments, especially during the post‐Green Revolution. International yield trial data, covering all major wheat growing environments from 1964 to 1999, were used in estimating the growth in wheat yield potential and changes in yield variability. The global database on wheat varietal adoption and yield gains based on estimated wheat yield growth rates were used to determine production increases due to wheat breeding research. Results show greater progress in shifting the wheat yield frontier in marginal areas, particularly in drought and high temperature environments. Furthermore, yield variability in marginal environments has notably declined, while it has increased slightly in favourable environments. While initial gains came from crossover of varieties from favourable environments, targeted breeding efforts have contributed significantly to more recent productivity growth in marginal environments. Increased production from marginal environments accounted for around 25% of the total wheat production increase in 1997. These findings show greater progress in wheat research and the huge potential of improving wheat productivity in unfavourable environments.     

Returns to wheat breeding research in Nepal

Returns to investment in wheat breeding research in Nepal were estimated for two periods: (1) the Green Revolution period (1960–1990), when modern semidwarf wheat varieties first appeared and spread throughout the country, and (2) the post-Green Revolution period (after 1990), when first-generation modern varieties will be replaced by newer materials. Major benefits of the Nepalese wheat breeding program have included maintenance of disease resistance and faster dissemination of exotic germplasm. Attractive rates of return to investment in wheat breeding have been due in part to Nepal's ability to capture spillover benefits from neighboring countries and from international agricultural research centers.     

Farmer management of production risk on degraded lands: the role of wheat variety diversity in the Tigray region, Ethiopia

This article investigates the effects of wheat genetic diversity and land degradation on risk and agricultural productivity in less favored production environments of a developing agricultural economy. Drawing production data from a household survey conducted in the highlands of Ethiopia, we estimate a stochastic production function to evaluate the effects of variety richness, land degradation, and their interaction on the mean and the variance of wheat yield. Ethiopia is a center of diversity for durum wheat and farmers manage complex variety mixtures on multiple plots. Econometric evidence shows that variety richness increases farm productivity. Variety richness also reduces yield variability but only for high levels of genetic diversity. Simulations with estimated parameters illustrate how planting more diverse durum wheat varieties on multiple plots contribute to improving farmer's welfare.     

On the transferability of the Asian rice green revolution to rainfed areas in sub‐Saharan Africa: an assessment of technology intervention in Northern Ghana

This article investigates the impact of technical intervention on the adoption of a set of improved rice production technologies, as well as on productivity and profit for smallholders in rainfed lowland areas in Northern Ghana. The key finding is that productivity and profit are significantly enhanced when modern varieties (MVs) and chemical fertilizer are adopted, coupled with water control techniques. This is essentially the transfer of the Asian Green Revolution to sub‐Saharan Africa. Such transfer, however, is not truly successful unless information about the use of MVs and fertilizer is directly disseminated by extension activities.     

Linking technical change to research effort: an examination of aggregation and spillovers effects

We used a disaggregate approach to examine investment efficiency of wheat breeding research in India. India's total research effort comprizes 20 research programs spread across 50 experiment stations. A technology spillover matrix was constructed for both potential and actual spillovers. Spillovers and free‐riding were dominant characteristics of technical change during the period studied. Although the aggregate rate of return to wheat improvement research in India was estimated to be 55%, eight programs were found to have earned a negative rate of return when spillins were taken into account. Research output is concentrated on a few strong programs. The two strongest programs generated 75% of all the technical change benefits, even though they claimed just 22% of research resources. These two programs include a significant degree of overlap, while on the other hand many farmers were not reached by any of the programs – 56 and 78% of rainfed and durum area, respectively, in 1990 was still sown with pre‐1976 varieties.     

Determinants of spatial diversity in modern wheat: examples from Australia and China

The spatial distribution of modern varieties, and the genes they embody, has economic value because it affects crop productivity from year to year. Since farmers choose varieties based on observable traits rather than the genes they cannot see, a first step in understanding the spatial distribution of genes is to better understand the determinants of the spatial distribution of varieties. In this paper, we have constructed spatial diversity indices from area distributions of modern wheat varieties in Australia and China. We hypothesise that factors explaining variation in these indices are related to farmers' demand for traits and the supply of varieties, given physical features of the production environment. We test these hypotheses using reduced form equations for three concepts of spatial diversity, richness, abundance and evenness, using Zellner's seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). Spatial diversity indicators and analyses of this type, if more fully developed and targeted to address specific policy issues, may assist in monitoring crop genetic diversity or ‘refuge’ targets associated with the diffusion of some genetically modified crops.     

‘Second-generation’ MVs and the evolution of the Green Revolution: the case of Central Luzon, 1966–90

By now new modern rice varieties (MVs) with multiple pest and disease resistance have completely replaced early MVs, such as IR5 and IR8, except in a few areas of Asia. This study attempts to identify the changing impacts of ‘first-generation’ and ‘second-generation’ MVs on productivity in rice farming by estimating the yield function, while correcting selectivity bias arising from the choice of varieties. For this purpose, we used farm-level survey data collected for eleven cropping seasons in Central Luzon in the Philippines from 1966 to 1990. We found that while the yield advantage of first-generation MVs over traditional varieties was limited, the yield-increasing effect of second-generation MVs over first-generation MVs was highly significant. In particular, the adoption of improved MVs significantly contributed to yield growth under the irrigated condition and during the dry season. Thus, we conclude that the Green Revolution would not have been revolutionary without the development and the diffusion of second-generation MVs with multiple pest and disease resistance.     

Impact of hybrid rice on input demand and productivity

This paper uses farm-level data collected from a sample of 500 households in Hunan province, China, to analyze the impact of hybrid rice on input demand and productivity. Based on regression analyses, it is found that, compared with conventional modern varieties, hybrid rice uses about 4% less labor inputs, 2% less draft animal services, and 6% more chemical fertilizers. The lesser requirements for labor and draft animal services probably arise from hybrid rice's lower seeding rate. Due to heterosis and high seed costs, the use of F₁ seed is economized to about one-third to one-fourth that of conventional varieties. Therefore, less labor and animal power is needed for seed-bed preparation and transplanting. It is also found that, given the same level of inputs, the yield advantage of hybrid rice over the conventional modern varieties is about 19%. Because of the productivity potential, hybrid rice is a candidate for the second-generation “Green Revolution” in other parts of Asia.     

Efficiency and Technical Change in the Philippine Rice Sector: A Malmquist Total Factor Productivity Analysis

Regional differences in total factor productivity, efficiency, and technological change in the Philippine rice sector are examined for the post-Green Revolution era. Malmquist productivity indices were constructed for 1971–90 and were decomposed into efficiency and technological change. The average annual Malmquist productivity growth was only slightly positive. Productivity growth was negative during the early 1970s, and was followed by a period of positive growth. Growth was negative again in the late 1980s. The period of positive growth coincided with the introduction of new rice varieties while the declines are likely to have been caused by intensification of rice production in lowland farming systems. Certain regions such as Central Luzon, Western Visayas, and Southern and Northern Mindanao had higher rates of technological change than others. This may be due to higher investments in infrastructure and education, increased adoption of tractors, and a better agroclimatic environment.     

Hegemony,Technological Innovation and Corporate Identities: 50 Years of Agricultural Revolutions in Argentina

The technological changes that have occurred since the mid‐1960s in Argentine agriculture – first the Green Revolution and then the Agribusiness Paradigm – have been conceptualized as revolutionary not only with regard to their productivity improvements but also because they brought with them a change of mentality. Based on two different business conceptions, during each period an agrarian elite led the ‘revolutionary’ process, offering a technological response as the means of guaranteeing agriculture's ‘survival’ after various crises. For each period, we can identify a correspondence between the status given to technology, the conception of business and the type of government regulation. This paper analyses how the proposition of a ‘technological revolution’ corresponds to the construction of the ideological leadership through which the agrarian bourgeoisie managed to orientate agrarian development.     

The genetic and economic impact of the CIMMYT wheat breeding program on local producers in the Yaqui Valley,Sonora Mexico

This article quantifies the productivity gain from CIMMYT‐released semidwarf bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) cultivars over time, using test plot data from Mexico's Yaqui Valley. Previous studies have shown a deceleration in irrigated wheat yield growth since the 1980s, which could be due to slowing increase in genetic potential. Our results suggest that CIMMYT cultivars contributed a 0.46% annual increase (about 38 kg/ha annually) to wheat yields in the Yaqui Valley, which raised local wheat producers’ revenue by an average of $4 million annually for the period 1990 to 2002, and by approximately $9 million in 2002.     

Can improved agricultural technologies spur a green revolution in Africa? A multicountry analysis of seed and fertilizer delivery systems

Sub‐Saharan Africa faces low agricultural productivity amid a confluence of trends that include rapid population growth, climate change, and the rise of the middle class. To raise productivity, governments—in partnership with donors and development organizations—have launched numerous initiatives to encourage the development of sustainable and competitive agricultural input markets. Despite these efforts, markets remain underdeveloped in most countries and access to affordable seeds and fertilizers remains a major challenge for smallholder farmers. This paper explores evidence from recent multicountry analyses of input delivery systems to assess the possibility of a Green Revolution in Africa. It describes use and adoption levels, challenges, policy and regulatory issues, and investments needed to expand smallholder access to these productivity‐enhancing agricultural technologies.     

The changing landscape of Indian agriculture

In tracking the revolutionary changes in the Indian agricultural sector, it is quite clear that technology, institutions, and markets have had a very important role to play. Of course, the public sector played a pivotal and catalytic role when India ushered in the Green Revolution in late 1960s and early 1970s. The public sector imported new seeds, organized their distribution and demonstration, and provided price and market support, all “not‐for‐profit.” The cooperative sector, supported and facilitated by the government, again with the spirit of “not‐for‐profit,” helped bring in the White Revolution in milk through Operation Flood in 1970s and 1980s. This spirit is now being gradually replaced by “for‐profit” objective driven by the private sector, as is demonstrated in the revolutionary changes brought about by the introduction of Bacillus thuringiensis technology in the cotton sector during 2002–2007. On top of this, the corporate sector is also changing the complexion of the Indian agrisystem through notable changes in organized food processing and retailing. This change in spirit from “not‐for‐profit” to “for‐profit” in the growth process of Indian agriculture has significant implications for the concept of CISS, i.e., competitiveness, inclusiveness, sustainability, and scalability, which needs to be studied carefully and in detail. Accordingly, this article traces some of these dynamic changes and their likely implications.     

Adoption of improved chickpea varieties: KRIBHCO experience in tribal region of Gujarat, India

The study aims to track adoption of improved chickpea varieties, and assess their on‐farm benefits in some remote and backward tribal villages in Gujarat, India, where few newly developed varieties were introduced by a non‐government organization. It also determines key factors which were influencing their adoption. The study found that adoption of improved chickpea varieties was gradually increasing by replacing a prominent local variety. Duration of crop maturity, farm size, yield risk, and farmers' experience of growing chickpea crop were significantly influencing their adoption. The on‐farm benefits as a result of improved varieties were realized in terms of increased yield levels, higher income and labor productivity, more marketable surplus, price premium and stabilized yields in fluctuating weather. Breeding short duration varieties with stable yield levels under varying weather, and organizing seed multiplication and dissemination in regions, where moisture stress is a problem during maturity of chickpea, are the major suggestions.     

VARIETAL CHANGE IN POST-GREEN REVOLUTION AGRICULTURE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR WHEAT IN PAKISTAN

Yield gains may continue to be the most important factor affecting varietal change in post-Green Revolution agriculture, but they are often not as spectacular as in the initial shift to high-yielding varieties. A survey of nearly four hundred farmers was conducted to determine factors leading to slow varietal change in Pakistan, where disease vulnerability has been a particular problem. Farm-to-farm information transfer, and to a lesser degree literacy, were important in explaining varietal awareness. Farmers' opinions of general and specific yield characteristics were important in explaining varietal adoption. In contrast, formal extension appeared to have little effect on either awareness or adoption, and farmers' disease knowledge was also limited. Strengthening formal educational and extension systems may be crucial to continued agricultural productivity growth in post-Green Revolution agriculture.     

The economic determinants of cereal crop diversity on farms in the Ethiopian highlands

In less favoured areas such as the highlands of Ethiopia, farmers manage risk through land allocation to crops and varieties since they cannot depend on market mechanisms to cope. They also grow traditional varieties that are genetically diverse and have potential social value. Supporting the maintenance of crop and variety diversity in such locations can address both the current needs of farmers and future needs of society, though it entails numerous policy challenges. We estimate a model of crop and variety choice in a theoretical framework of the farm household model to compare the determinants of crop and variety diversity, revealing some of these policy considerations. Farm physical features and household characteristics such as wealth and labour stocks have large and significant effects on both the diversity among and within cereal crops, varying among crops. Policies designed to encourage variety diversity in one cereal crop may have opposing effects in another crop. Trade-offs between development-related factors and diversity in this resource-poor system are not evident, however. Market-related variables and population density have ambiguous effects. Education positively influences cereal crop diversity. Growing modern varieties of maize or wheat does not detract from the richness or evenness of these cereals on household farms.     

石羊河流域绿色农业循环模式研究

该研究针对石羊河流域绿洲灌区环境资源特点、产业优势及生产中存在的问题,通过对当地玉米、小麦两大主栽作物秸秆饲料化利用、肉牛健康养殖、废弃物综合利用、农畜产品生产全程质量监控等技术的组装配套,试验研究总结形成种养结合、资源循环利用、清洁生产的绿色农业发展模式,即种养结合型模式"玉米—牛—沼—肥"、大田设施配套型模式"小麦—菇—肥—果(葡萄)"、小型养殖场型模式"牛—沼/蚯蚓—肥/饲料"。并对模式、特点、技术集成要点及效益进行阐述分析。对该3种模式在石羊河流域典型区域武威市凉州区谢河镇示范验证,农田节水30%,秸秆养殖利用率达到60%,牛羊良种化率提高30%,奶牛母犊牛生产率达88%,减少化肥施用量20%,减少生活能源支出55%,减少农业废弃物排放75%,提高农业综合效益36%。     

Modern rice technology and regional wage differentials in the Philippines

Fear has been widely expressed that the modern rice varieties have created large disparities in regional income distribution, as the productivity gap between favorable and unfavorable rice-production environments widened due to differential technology adoption throughout South and Southeast Asia over the last two decades. Technology affects the income of farm population directly through its effects on productivity and factor use, and indirectly through its effect on factor prices. In particular, the ultimate distributional impact of modern varieties will critically depend on the interregional labor-market adjustments through migration in response to regional wage differentials created by the differential technology adoption, since labor is the main resource of the majority of the rural population. We studied favorable and unfavorable rice-growing villages in the Philippines, and found that adoption of modern varieties during the 1970s was positively related to population growth rate. Contrary to popular belief, no association was observed between wage rates and adoption of modern varieties as of 1986. These findings support the hypothesis that the differential adoption of modern rice varieties induced interregional labor migration toward equalization of wage income across different production environments.     

Was the Green Revolution intended to maximise food production?

The evidence on yields, food-production, food-calories per capita, and declining levels of malnutrition in countries experiencing a Green Revolution are commonly cited in support of the claim that the GR sought to maximise food production. If one looks closely at the actual design of GR programmes (in India and elsewhere), however, it is clear that they were instead intended to boost yields and profitability in a small number of targeted areas. The underlying rationale for targeting was that achieving very high yields in such regions would persuade farmers to abandon subsistence farming in favour of commercial production, relying upon the market for the purchase of inputs as well as the sale of produce. In response to widespread criticism of the Green Revolution ca. 1970 for neglecting the needs of peasant farmers (as well as accentuating rural unrest), the World Bank and other donors began to direct more attention and resources to smallholders, but the aim of commercialising farming remained unchanged.     

Marketing Organic Pasta from Big Sandy to Rome: It's a Long Kamut ®

Bob Quinn spent 20 years propagating an ancient Egyptian wheat variety that is generally known as Khorasan wheat. Bob trademarked his wheat variety using the brand name "Kamut^®." Kamut^® brand wheat contains some nutritional, health, and taste advantages over modern wheat varieties, but lacks some of modern wheat's agronomic advantages. Kamut^® brand wheat is organically produced, and is used to make cereals, breads, cookies, snacks, pancakes, bread mixes, bulgur, pasta, and baked goods. Whole wheat products produced from Kamut^® brand wheat are less bitter than those produced from modern wheat varieties. Europe represents approximately two-thirds of the market for this product.