“沉没成本”与企业决策

"沉没成本"亦称"旁置成本",是管理会计中的一个术语,主要用于项目的投资决策,与其对应的成本概念是"新增成本".在经济学和商业决策制定过程中经常会用到"沉没成本"的概念,代指由于过去的决策所引起,已经付出且不可收回的成本,因为现在和将来的决策中都不能改变这一已经实际支出的事实,所以在决策分析中通常不需要考虑这类成本.     

生命成本:关于消费函数理论的一个新假说

消费者行为究竟是收入决定还是成本决定，关系到消费函数理论的基础构建与对诸多重大消费者行为现象的理论解释。传统消费函数理论基于收入假说，忽视了不同消费者为获得同一收入需要付出不同生命成本这一关键事实。由于消费的本质意义在于满足消费者生命的需要，生命为消费付出的代价，才是消费者消费支出的理性尺度。因此，消费者消费支出的决定性影响因子并不是收入差异．而是消费者为获得一定收入付出的生命成本差异。消费者消费倾向差别的根源发生在作为生产者的生产过程，而非消费过程。文章由此提出了基于生命成本假说的消费函数理论，并构建了一个消费者一生产者相统一的消费者行为解释新框架。     

模块化悖论与模块化战略

模块化不仅是一种创新方法,也是一种战略手段。模块化设计过程是一个包括“决策之决策”、“并行性改进”和“选择之选择”的三个阶段模式,需要相应地支付“沉没成本”、“变动成本”和“周期成本,”并形成了“结构价值”、“试验价值”和“创新价值;”模块化深化完善伴随着三大发展悖论:模块化发展与系统控制悖论、模块化无量纲设计与制造过程模块化悖论以及知识模块化与物理模块化悖论;模块化发展过程孕育着三类战略管理手段:模块化引导战略、模块化控制战略以及模块化匹配战略。模块化贯穿于设计和制造全过程,模块化发展动力根源于设计、制造和消费各自内部以及三者之间战略互动。     

而立之年的感言

争取半天的愿望没有实现，一要怪自己学艺不精，二要怪自己运气不好。然后赶快行动起来争取下一个愿望。前面投入的时间精力，统统算做沉没成本。勇于承担沉没成本是出来混的第一课。     

从经济学角度看腐败

国内外理论界对腐败问题的研究,大都是从社会学和政治学角度进行的。从另一个角度看,腐败作为一种行为选择,实际上是建立在个人得失、个人效用理性计算基础上的一种个人行为选择。经济学把人视为“经济动物”并有“经济人”假设一说,认为每个人都是根据自身利益的理性计算来采取行动,寻求个人效用即个人的满足程度最大化。笔者在“经济人”假设的前提下,利用经济学中的成本—效益分析方法就腐败的成因、行为机制以及防治措施提出一些看法。     

改扩建项目中的沉没成本

利用改扩建项目的增量分析法来陈述沉没成本的存在情况及其处理办法。沉没成本有其“沉没”性，但通过再利用，仍可为企业带来效益。     

干中学与中国制造业的市场结构:内生性沉没成本的视角

本文首次将对我国干中学的研究从宏观层面拓展到微观层面,利用1999—2007年的大样本企业数据测算了我国465个四位码制造业的干中学学习率,并在Sutton(1991)内生性沉没成本理论的框架下检验了干中学对我国制造业市场结构的动态影响。研究发现,中国制造业现阶段干中学的学习率呈现整体较高、行业之间差异较大的特点;干中学作为一种内生性沉没成本确实具有进入阻止的作用,能够提高行业的市场集中度,减缓我国制造业在市场规模扩张过程中市场结构趋于分散的态势,而且,干中学对我国制造业市场结构的影响大于另两种典型的内生性沉没成本——研发和广告。为优化我国制造业的市场结构,政府应当下大力气保护企业投资内生性沉没成本的激励,对产业市场结构的干预应当充分考虑各个产业在干中学强度上的差异,并采取有效措施降低干中学对研发的挤出。     

消费契约的双重特性与大企业危机

消费契约具有长期契约特征，不但企业对消费者的购买激励具备投资特征，消费者也会在购买过程中形成专用性资产。通过转移成本壁垒，企业和消费者被封闭在一种双边的长期契约关系当中，这种关系造成了消费契约的相对稳定性。但同时由于契约的不完全性，一旦消费者预期专用性资产变为沉没成本，潜在消费者将转投其他企业，造成企业的迅速倒闭。如果大企业不能采取有效措施，小的失误可能会演变成大的危机；由于大企业存在着危机的外部性．因此需要相应的公共政策。     

渠道生态圈中滞态成本的弹性运营

渠道的话题近来在营销界愈演愈烈。正如李·艾柯卡所言,渠道管理已处于在争夺竞争优势的最前线。渠道作为营销要素之一,几乎承载了营销弥合供求缺口这一基本功能的绝大部分。因此,“渠道热”出现于产品服务趋同化,价格压缩空间受限,广告边际收益递减的均势竞争背景下,可以说,也正是对营销本质功能的理性回归。但是,相对于营销组合中的服务、价格、促销等其他营销投入而言,渠道建设期长,不易更改。从某种意义上讲,渠道是一种缺乏弹性的沉没成本,并构成企业的市场进入或退出壁垒。而瞬息万变的市场环境,又要求企业的渠道策略能富于弹性地灵活…     

论采油企业成本管理控制长效机制的建立

为了完成生产经营任务，采油企业内某些单位客观上还存在一些短期行为。从最终影响来看，采取短期行为，可能使得采油成本在短期内趋于下降，但会导致后期成本急剧上升，不利于企业的可持续发展。因此，需要运用法律、行政、制度、政策等多种手段，建立成本管理控制长效机制，以克服各种短期行为的发生，从而实现采油企业成本的长期效能。     

沉淀成本与资源型城市转型分析

本文应用一个简单的投资模型，从经济性沉淀成本和社会性沉淀成本角度分析了资源型城市转型的障碍并提出了相关的政策建议。模型分析表明，沉淀成本与信息不完全的结合会在很大程度上扭曲资源配置，导致产业结构刚性，降低经济效率和福利水平。因而资源型城市转型的基本政策处方，是补偿经济性沉淀成本和社会性沉淀成本，促进各类生产要素的充分流动，以利于资源型城市投资主体的自由退出和发展接续产业。     

基于沉淀成本视角的企业重组博弈分析

本文从放松新古典完全竞争市场中没有沉淀成本的假设前提入手,在区分固定成本和沉淀成本概念的基础上,运用一个有无沉淀成本的古诺纳什均衡经济模型分析它们各自对企业重组的经济效率和福利水平的不同影响,进而发现,沉淀成本而不是固定成本(规模经济或企业规模)是影响企业重组经济效率和福利水平最基本的经济变量。依据这样的经济模型,我们发现,在国有企业重组过程中,因资产专用性、交易成本和生产过程等原因,沉淀成本普遍存在,严重降低了国有企业重组的经济效率和福利水平。因此,为了提高国有企业重组的经济效率,我们提供制度创新或政策创新的基本原则,关键在于减少或补偿沉淀成本,促进生产要素充分流动,从而创造出一个可竞争的市场经济环境。     

Sunk costs and resource mobility: An empirical study

While the concept of sunk costs has become increasingly important in theoretical work, relatively few empirical studies have examined sunk costs. The present study focuses on the relationship between tangible sunk costs and entry. An estimate of industry specific capital, derived from engineering-statistical cost estimates, is employed as a proxy for tangible sunk costs. With this measure we can test directly the relationship between irreversible investments and entry in a sample consisting of 40 U.S. manufacturing industries. The primary finding is that tangible sunk costs have a deterrent effect on entry.     

Sunk Cost and Entry

The usual mechanisms by which sunk costs are said to affect entry arethrough raising the expected average cost of an entrant, relative to that ofincumbents. I show that in standard models and in the absence of riskpremia imposed by financial markets on an entrant's cost of capital, sunkcosts may make entry unprofitable because of their effect on the post-entryunit costs of incumbents.     

Does the fourth entrant make any difference?: Entry and competition in the early U.S. broadband market

We study the importance of sunk costs in determining entry conditions and inferences about firm conduct in an adapted Bresnahan and Reiss (1991, 1994) framework. In our framework, entrants incur sunk costs to enter, while incumbents disregard these costs in deciding on continuation or exit. We apply this framework to study entry and competition in the local U.S. broadband markets from 1999 to 2003. Ignoring sunk costs generates unreasonable variation in firms' competitive conduct over time. This variation disappears when entry costs are allowed. Once the market has one to three incumbent firms, the fourth entrant has little effect on competitive conduct.     

Firm and destination-specific export costs: The case of the Swedish food sector

This paper focuses on sunk export costs in the Swedish food and beverage sector. Its purpose is threefold. First, it investigates whether the estimation of the importance of sunk costs is sensitive to persistence bilateral (firm-destination) effects such as specific market knowledge compared to firm-specific effects such as managerial skills or product quality. Second, it analyses the effects of firm and market characteristics on firms’ export decisions. Third, it tests whether the importance of sunk costs varies with destination as well as firm characteristics. The main results are: (1) that firm-destination effects are more important than general, unobserved firm characteristics, (2) that more productive and larger firms are more likely to export and that firms’ expectations from exporting increase with market size and exchange rate stability, and (3) that the importance of sunk export costs varies with firm and market characteristics.     

THE ROLE OF SUNK COSTS IN THE DECISION TO INVEST IN R&D*

We present a dynamic empirical model of a firm's R&D decisions that is consistent with the existence of sunk R&D costs, taking into account that these costs may differ between small and large firms, and among different technological regimes. We estimate a multivariate dynamic discrete choice model using firm‐level data of Spanish manufacturing for 1990–2000. Conditional on firm heterogeneity and serially correlated unobservable factors, we find that R&D history matters. This true state dependence allows inferring the existence of sunk R&D costs associated with performing R&D. Sunk R&D costs are found to be higher for large, high‐tech firms.     

试析沉没成本对企业进入市场的影响

在行业规模固定不变的情况下,沉没成本的大小成为阻碍部分潜在企业进入这一行业的因素之一。通过理论推导和数值模拟论证表明,低沉没成本的企业组合具有较低的行业总体沉没成本和较高的总体社会财富,优于高沉没成本企业组合,从而将高沉没成本企业阻挡在行业之外。     

Sunk Costs,Extensive R&D Subsidies and Permanent Inducement Effects

Using firm‐level data on Spanish manufacturing firms we estimate a model of the firm's optimal R&D decisions (whether to perform R&D and how much to invest). We quantify the fixed (proper fixed costs plus firms' outside option) and sunk costs of R&D and find the former to be substantially higher than the latter. While sunk costs act as a barrier to entry into R&D for some firms, fixed costs are the binding obstacle for many more firms. Simulation based on the estimated model reveals that one‐shot trigger subsidies cause a substantial increase in both the share of R&D firms and average R&D expenditures. This effect shows persistence over time, but totally fades away after seven years as firms are gradually hit by negative R&D profitability shocks.     

Sunk Costs,Accommodation, and the Welfare Effects of Entry

Although economists usually support the unrestricted entry of firms into an industry, entry may lower social welfare if there are setup costs or if entrants have a cost disadvantage. We consider the welfare effects of entry within a standard Cournot model where some of an incumbent firm’s costs are sunk. We find that the range of parameter values over which entry can harm welfare declines monotonically in the fraction of cost that are sunk. Furthermore, the presence of even a small fraction of sunk costs often reverses an assessment that entry harms welfare.