香港银行业防范房地产信贷风险的经验及启示

房地产贷款是香港银行业的主要盈利来源.亚洲金融危机期间,香港物业价格大幅下跌,导致大量的负资产按揭贷款.然而,在如此严峻的形势下,香港银行业依然稳健,没有出现银行倒闭或要求政府提供财政援助的情况.研究香港银行业及监管部门成功应对房地产价格波动的经验,对于内地银行业防范房地产价格波动带来的危机,有着重要的意义.     

The international transmission of monetary policy through financial centres: Evidence from the United Kingdom and Hong Kong

This paper explores the cross-border transmission of monetary policy by comparing and contrasting the results for two major international financial centres: Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. We examine the effect of monetary policy in the USA, euro area and Japan, on banks’ domestic lending behaviour. Using individual bank-level data we find that financial connections – in the form of lending to and borrowing from the country which changes monetary policy - play an important role in the transmission of foreign monetary policy. We are able to establish evidence for both a bank funding and bank portfolio channel of monetary policy, for both Hong Kong and the UK. These results contrast to the largely inconclusive results from previous studies, whose aggregate nature may have masked offsetting individual bank effects.     

Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence

We investigate determination of commercial property prices and their interaction with aggregate bank lending. An illustrative model suggests that lending is closely related to property prices and property markets can develop cycles given plausible assumptions. Cross-country empirical analysis confirms its predictions. Property prices show particularly strong links to credit in countries that experienced banking crises linked to property losses in 1985-1995. Studies of dynamic interaction suggest that variance in commercial property prices is largely explicable by lagged shocks in the variable itself, while GDP and bank credit also have an important influence. Implications arise for risk managers and regulators.     

房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长

运用联立方程模型、面板分析技术及省际面板数据研究发现,我国房价波动、银行信贷与经济增长之间具有紧密的联系.分区域的实证研究结果显示:各地区房价的上涨与金融支持有关,过度的金融支持使东中部地区的房价偏离了经济基本面;中西部地区房价的上涨对银行信贷的扩张有显著影响,而经济增长是各地区促进银行信贷扩张的共同因素.此外,房价的上涨与银行信贷的扩张共同促进了我国各区域经济的繁荣.     

US ADR and Hong Kong H-share discounts of Shanghai-listed firms

This paper examines the differential between the share prices of Chinese securities traded on their home market of Shanghai versus prices observed offshore in New York and Hong Kong. The discounts attached to Chinese securities, whether trading as ADRs on the NYSE or as H-shares on the Hong Kong market, appear to have been significantly influenced by changes in both exchange rate expectations and investor sentiment during 1998–2006. Expected exchange rate changes alone account for approximately 40% of the total variation in each case. This is combined with large cross-sectional variation, however, reflecting additional significant market-wide and company-specific sentiment effects.     

The impact of the Japanese market on the intraday Hong Kong stock returns

This paper examines the impact of the price movement of the Japanese market on the Hong Kong market. We find that the Hong Kong stock prices react rapidly to the return information of the Japanese market. The evidence also indicates that the large price movement of the Japanese market can be used as an indicator for the Hong Kong market. The price reaction of the Hong Kong market is instantaneous and takes place in the opening minutes of the afternoon session. However, there is no excess profits when the transactions costs are included. Finally, the Hong Kong market has a significantly higher turnover when the Japanese market is open.     

Price Run-up in Housing Markets,Access to Bank Lending and House Prices in Korea

This paper studies the causal relationship between house prices and the access to bank lending in Kangnam, the hottest submarket in Seoul and four ‘cold’ markets which have shown relatively modest price increases. In response to the rapid escalation of house prices in Seoul, primarily in Kangnam in recent years, the Korean government implemented a number of policies to stabilize house prices. In particular, it introduced more strict limits on loan-to-value ratio and debt-to-income ratio as part of the mortgage loan qualification process in order to restrict the availability of bank lending for the housing market. The short-run influence of the bank lending on the apartment prices is clearly present in ‘cold’ markets, while it is not in Kangnam, the ‘hot’ market, even though the long-run influence is stronger in Kangnam than in the other markets. This result holds for the entire sample period (1999–2006) as well as for the subperiods before and after the introduction of lending restrictions in August, 2005. It also holds for Kangnam and Kangbuk for an extended period of 1988 to 2006. Our results suggest that in the short run the lending restriction may cause a disruption in untargeted housing markets while it has little influence on the apartment prices in the targeted market. We also find that banks have adjusted the bank lending in response to changes in the house prices in Kangnam as well as in the other markets.     

BANK FAILURE AND CONTAGION EFFECTS: EVIDENCE FROM HONG KONG

In this paper the influence of three Hong Kong bank failures on stock prices of the colony's banking industry is examined. As deposit insurance is nonexistent in Hong Kong, the world's fourth-largest financial center, an interesting environment is provided for testing contagion effects of bank failure on other healthy financial institutions. By examining contagion effects in an environment void of explicit deposit insurance, this study should provide interesting insights into the resiliency of modern-day financial markets. In turn, insights should also be provided into debates concerning the role and reform of deposit insurance and the rationale for regulation of the financial services industry in general. The results indicate that unexpected bank failure causes significant negative stock price reactions within the banking industry; yet, some banks are less affected than others.     

The X-efficiency of commercial banks in Hong Kong

Using the stochastic frontier approach to investigate the cost efficiency of commercial banks in Hong Kong, this paper found that the average X-efficiency of Hong Kong banks was about 16–30% of observed total costs. However, X-efficiency was found to decline over time, indicating that Hong Kong banks were operating closer to the cost frontier than before, consistent with technological innovations in the banking industry. Furthermore, the average large bank was found to be less efficient than the average small bank, but the size effect appears to be related to differences in portfolio characteristics among different size banks.     

银行业市净率问题研究——兼论国有商业银行股权转让价格问题

近一个时期,中国银行业改革出现重大突破,以交通银行和建设银行为代表的中国银行业掀起了一轮引进战略投资者和境外上市的高潮。本文以市净率这一价格指标为切入点,对境外银行业股权转让价格的一般规律进行了研究,并在此基础上对交通银行和建设银行引进战略投资者和上市的价格进行分析。     

Office Property Returns in Shanghai,Guangzhou, and Shenzhen

Commercial property development in China has been a growth industry in recent years. This article examines the returns on office property in the three major cities of Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen in the period 1991 to 1997. Analyses based on the Security Market Line (SML) show that property investments in the office sector in Shanghai and Guangzhou have excess returns and that Shanghai office property tends to dominate the optimal portfolios due to its superior risk-adjusted returns. While equal returns in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen cannot be rejected, the Shanghai office property is subject to the least systematic risk, compared with all other cities. Hong Kong office property is included only in the less risky optimal portfolios. In addition, our results indicate that there is little correlation between the office property returns in Hong Kong and the office property in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Guangzhou and Shenzhen office markets, which are geographically relatively close to Hong Kong, tend to be more volatile than the Shanghai office market. However, owing to Shenzhens proximity to Hong Kong, there is significant correlation between the returns of the office property in Shenzhen and the office property in Hong Kong.     

The causal relationships between residential property prices and rentals in Hong Kong: 1982–1991

This study examines the causal relationships between sale price changes and rental rate changes in the Hong Kong real estate market. Three different hypotheses are put forth: 1) the demands in the two markets are substitutes, 2) prices and rentals are positively correlated; and 3) prices and rentals are not correlated because of market segmentation. Using quarterly data of sale prices and rental rates for the five categories of residential property from four different districts, causal relationships are not found in 29 cases out of 40. For the other 11 cases, we find that price changes lead rental rate changes. The lag period is found to be one quarter, and this shows that the two markets are efficient: only one quarterly lag is necessary to establish causality where it exists.     

Does Joint Bidding Reduce Competition? Evidence from Hong Kong Land Auctions

This paper analyses firms’ bidding behavior in auctions for development land in Hong Kong. The real estate market in Hong Kong is considered to be oligopolistic as it is dominated by a few top real estate firms, which have strong financial strength/development capacity and large land banks. Joint bidding is used by other real estate firms (“large” firms) to pool resources/capital in order to compete with the top firms. We test whether joint bidding increases or decreases the level of competition in land auctions, using land auction data in Hong Kong from 1991 to 2011. We find that large real estate firms are more likely to be successful than top firms at auctions when bidding jointly. However, joint bidding/winning does not harm competition as reflected by the number of bids, bids per bidder and number of bidders. Land prices also increase significantly in auctions won by joint bidders or alliances of large developers. Our results suggest that joint bidding enhances competition by allowing large firms to act strategically by pooling their resources and act aggressively to compete with the top firms.

     

Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?

In this paper I compare a traditional demand oriented model of bank lending with its focus on short-term interest rates in the money market, to a non-traditional capital budgeting model of bank lending based on movements in share valuations for the Euro area. Using non-nested hypothesis tests, omitted variables tests, and Granger Causality tests, I reject the traditional demand oriented model of bank lending and fail to reject the capital budgeting model of bank lending for Monetary Financial Institutions (MFI's) in the Euro area. Even though Europe is a bank-based financial system, it appears the stock market plays a key role in the lending decisions and allocation of resources in Europe. One possible policy implication of this research is that the central bank should try and stabilize stock prices in order to achieve their goal of stabilizing bank lending and the economy.     

Some consequences of banks' LDC loans: A note

The realized returns on LDC loans made prior to 1980 and hypothetically sold at (below par) secondary market prices in either 1986, when a secondary market first began, or, say, in 1989 are moderately positive. The realized risk-adjusted returns to investors on a portfolio of large LDC lending bank stocks are unmistakenly lower than the return on a broad market index, though they are not significantly so. Similarly, although the difference is not statistically significant, the average realized return on LDC lending banks' stocks is well below that of a portfolio of non-LDC lending banks. The article concludes that while shareholders suffered economic losses as a result of LDC lending activity, these losses were not quantitatively large.     

Are stock and real estate markets integrated? An empirical study of six Asian economies

Rising asset prices spurred by Asia's emerging economy have drawn much attention recently. This study examines one source of growth patterns in asset prices by analyzing the integration relationship between stock markets and real estate markets in Asia. Six economies are selected for empirical analysis: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Results show that stock markets are integrated with real estate markets in Japan, and partially integrated with real estate markets in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. This implies that these two investment vehicles are substitutable in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan, and provide diversification potential for investment portfolios in South Korea and Singapore. Examining the timing of market changes, we found the real estate market leading the stock market in some countries, and the stock market leading the real estate market in others. We conclude that stock and real estate markets show a variety of inter-relationships depending on economic and political policy environments.     

Abnormal Stock Returns Following Large One-day Advances and Declines: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Markets

This paper documents significant 5-day, 10-day and 20-day cumulativeabnormal returns following large one-day advances/declines in some Asianemerging stock markets, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand,Australia and Philippines. Stock prices tend to rise after large one-dayadvances and fall after large one-day declines. These findings areinconsistent with DeBondt and Thaler's (1985 and 1987) overreactionhypothesis. However, they are consistent with Cox and Peterson's (194)find that prices of longer term (5 to 20 days) tend to decline followinglarge price declines.     

The Effects of Bank Lending in an Open Economy

This article assesses the effects of bank lending in a small open economy with a floating exchange rate and sticky prices. A theoretical model with costly financial intermediation is developed for New Zealand. The results show that the long-run and business cycle effects of bank lending are small. Whether firms borrow from financial intermediaries or public debt markets is unlikely to affect economic activity. In other words, the financial structure, or degree to which a country's financial system is intermediary based or market based, does not matter.     

Bank selection and share of wallet among SMEs: Apparent differences between Hong Kong and Australia

This paper examines the factors that small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Hong Kong consider when selecting a banking partner, and the extent to which they use different banks (share of wallet). The findings are contrasted with those from another study of Australian business. The results show that firms in both countries view a bank's willingness to accommodate their banking and credit needs as being important. Hong Kong firms appear to give this factor higher priority when making their bank selection, while Australian firms appear to place higher emphasis on long-term relationships. Australian firms appear to have a more stable relationship with their primary bank as compared to the firms in Hong Kong where switching behaviours are found to be common. While ‘guanxi’ is often seen as critical in maintaining a business relationship in the Asian context, this study suggests it has limited impact for SMEs in Hong Kong in increasing share of wallet. The findings offer marketing implications for banks that are operating, or are planning to operate, business banking in both places.     

Competition,transmission and bank pricing policies: Evidence from Belgian loan and deposit markets

This paper addresses the pass-through from market interest rates to retail bank interest rates. The paper advocates a heterogeneous approach and applies it to the Belgian banking market. A substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in bank pricing policies can be explained by the bank lending channel and the relative market power hypothesis. The results also suggest that the long-term pass-through is typically less than one-for-one, rejecting the completeness hypothesis. While there is no convincing evidence for asymmetry in retail rates, large deviations from equilibrium mark-ups are faster reduced than small deviations. Overall, conditions for corporate loans are more competitive compared to consumer loans. Demand and savings deposits have, by far, the most rigid prices.