Some evidence on the cohort earnings differentials of men in Japan

This study analyses the cohort earnings differentials of full-time working men in Japan using large micro data on individuals. Log earnings differentials between two cohorts of the same age calculated from 2012 and 2017 surveys reveal a substantial earnings decline for university graduates around age 43 and senior high school graduates around age 38 in 2017. These cohorts experienced a severe deterioration of job opportunities after the bubble burst. The Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition shows that the composition effect dominates the wage structure effect. In particular, a shortened length of tenure and a decline in the share of those working in a large firm are the main causes of the earnings gap for senior high school graduates and for university graduates, respectively. While an increase in the proportion of those working in the service sector and a reduced share of regular workers are also important determinants for the earnings differentials for high school graduates, deteriorated opportunities for promotion to supervisory positions play an important role for university graduates. Extending this analysis to a longer time period and estimating the cohort earnings differential equation clarify that the observed stability of cohort earnings differentials for university graduates emerge not only from the importance of firm size differentials in determining their earning differentials, but also from the high stability of firm size differentials between cohorts for university graduates.     

Early poverty exposure predicts young adult educational outcomes in China

Comparative research suggests that poverty in childhood, and especially in the early years, impedes educational attainment. With longitudinal data from China, we estimate hazard models of dropping out of school in young adulthood with two dynamic measures of childhood poverty: poverty spell indicators that distinguish poverty in early childhood, middle childhood, and adolescence, and poverty indices that measure the depth of poverty and distinguish chronic from transient poverty.Four main results emerge: 1) Children who experience spells in poverty leave school at a higher rate than others, even adjusting for poverty in later periods; 2) Transient poverty is more widespread, and shows a greater negative association with school-leaving, than chronic poverty; 3) Early childhood poverty shows greater negative associations with education outcomes than poverty in later periods; and 4) Girls may be more susceptible than boys to early poverty. We further test two possible mechanisms of impact: early nutrition poverty and school fees. While lower protein intake at an early stage of life is related to poorer educational outcomes in young adulthood, adjusting for nutritional deprivation does not attenuate the associations of early transient income poverty. Results do not suggest that cohorts that experienced school-fee abolishment policies experienced different poverty effects than other cohorts.     

High School Dropouts and Sexually Transmitted Infections

People who drop out of high school fare worse in many aspects of life. We analyze the relationship between dropping out of high school and the probability of contracting a sexually transmitted infection (STI). Previous studies on the relationship between dropout status and sexual outcomes have not empirically addressed unobserved heterogeneity at the individual level. Using fixed effects estimators, we find evidence supporting a positive relationship between dropping out of high school and the risk of contracting an STI for females. Furthermore, we present evidence that illustrates differences between the romantic partners of dropouts versus enrolled students. These differences suggest that female dropouts may be more susceptible to contracting STIs because they partner with significantly different types of people than do nondropouts. Our results point to a previously undocumented benefit of encouraging those at risk of dropping out to stay in school longer.     

Early Experience and Later Outcomes of Education: Schooling Transition Evidence from Indonesia

This paper investigates the effect of early school experience on later educational attainment. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we find that students who repeat a grade at primary school are less likely to progress to junior high school. We also find that grade retention is associated with lower rates of transition from junior high school to senior high school. The relationship persists across years and samples. Meanwhile, the age of students when starting school and the hours they spend there have limited effects on whether they continue their schooling. We also observe that the effects of parental education and household income on the transition of students from primary school to junior high school are weakening. Given the long-term impact of grade retention, policymakers should be cautious when recommending it for underachieving children and should look for alternatives.     

Gender differences in job search among young workers: A study using displaced workers in the United States

This article investigates gender differences in job search, job tenure, and wages, whether these differences vary over the early part of the life‐cycle, and whether they are associated with fertility decisions. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youths on highly attached displaced workers aged 20 to 45, we find that 20‐ to 29‐year‐old women and women older than 40 experience longer spells of displacement than comparable men, but that time to a new job is similar by gender for those between 30 and 39 years of age. The age pattern in male–female wage differences in the post‐displacement job is similar, with the largest differences occurring at ages 20 to 29 and over 40. We find no gender differences in tenure in the post‐displacement job. We interpret the differences for the younger ages to be related to fertility and we provide evidence that supports this view.     

Head teachers,peer effects,and student achievement

Teachers can influence student achievement, not only directly, but also indirectly via peer effects. Based on a unique data set from a Chinese middle school (grades 7–9), this paper uses a student fixed-effects model to estimate peer effects for four core subjects (Chinese, Math, English, and Science) at the level of the class cohorts studying each subject. We find negative peer effects that are significant from both an economic and a statistical perspective. However, in the subjects taught by head teachers, who have more tools to manage students than do regular teachers, such negative peer effects disappear. Further investigation suggests that head teachers generate positive peer effects that override the negative ones.     

The Implicit Costs of Motherhood over the Lifecycle: Cross-Cohort Evidence from Administrative Longitudinal Data

It is well known that the explicit costs of raising a child have grown over the past several decades. Less well understood are the implicit costs of having a child, and how they have changed over time. In this article, we are the first to examine the evolution of the implicit costs of motherhood over the lifecycle and across generations using high quality administrative data. We estimate that the lifetime labor market income gap between mothers and women who never have children (never-mothers) decreases from around $350,000 to $280,000 between women born in the late 1940s and late 1960s. Gaps tend to increase monotonically over the lifecycle, and decrease monotonically between cohorts. Our evidence suggests that changes in the gaps are caused by changing labor force participation rates.     

The Effects of Differential Income Replacement and Mortality on U.S. Social Security Redistribution

We study redistribution via the U.S. Social Security retirement system for cohorts of men born during the second half of the 20th century. Our focus is on redistribution across race and education groups. The cohorts we study are younger than cohorts studied in previous, similar research and thus more exposed to recent increases in earnings inequality. All else equal, this should increase the degree of progressivity of Social Security redistribution due to the structure of the benefit formula. However, we find that redistribution is only modestly progressive for individuals born as late as 1980. Differential mortality rates across race and education groups are the primary explanation. While Black–White mortality gaps have narrowed some in recent years, they remain large and dull progressivity. Mortality gaps by education level are also large and unlike the gaps by race, they are widening, which puts additional regressive pressure on Social Security redistribution.     

What Does a High School Diploma Get You? Employment, Race, and the Transition to Adulthood

We compare the employment of African American and white youth as they transition to adulthood from age 18 to 22, focusing on high school graduates and high school dropouts who did not attend college. Using OLS and hazard models, we analyze the relative employment rates, and employment consistency, stability, and timing, controlling for a number of factors including family income, academic aptitude, prior work experience, and neighborhood poverty. We find white high school graduates work significantly more than all other youth on most measures; African American high school graduates work as much and sometimes less than white high school dropouts; African American dropouts work significantly less than all other youth. Findings further suggest that the improved labor market participation associated with a high school diploma is higher over time for African Americans than for white youth.     

Arrival Cohort, Assimilation, and the Earnings of Caribbean Women in the United States

Utilizing data on U.S.-born and Caribbean-born black women from the 1980–2000 U.S. Censuses and the 2000–2007 waves of the American Community Survey, I document the impact of cohort of arrival, tenure of U.S. residence, and country/region of birth on the earnings and earnings assimilation of black women born in the English-, French-, and Spanish-speaking Caribbean. I also test whether selective migration accounts for earnings differences between U.S.-born and Caribbean-born black women in the United States. I show that almost all arrival cohorts of Caribbean women earn less than U.S.-born black women when they first arrive in the United States. However, over time the earnings of early arrival cohorts from the English- and French-speaking Caribbean are projected to surpass the earnings of U.S.-born black women. Indeed, this crossover is most pronounced for women from the English-speaking Caribbean. In models that account for selective migration by comparing the earnings of Caribbean women to U.S.-born black women who have moved across states since birth, I show that more time is required for early arrival cohorts from the English- and French-speaking Caribbean to surpass the earnings of U.S.-born black internal migrants. Women from the Spanish-speaking Caribbean do not seem to experience earnings growth as their tenure of U.S. residence increases. In summary, the findings suggest that selective migration is an important determinant of earnings differences between U.S.-born black women and black women from the Caribbean.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING COHORT ANALYSIS, 1994‐20041

We analyse trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation by simple graphical techniques, using all the October Household Surveys and the September Labour Force Surveys. We show that African male employment in 1995 seems high, when compared to all the other surveys. Furthermore much of the increase in African female labour force participation is concentrated in the period 1998 to 2000, which suggests that measurement and sampling changes may be partially responsible for the trend. We track cohorts of individuals over the eleven years for which we have data. We show that young people are leaving school earlier, while being better educated than their elders. They are not, however, being absorbed into employment at a faster rate. This has led to a spike in youth unemployment.     

THE EFFECT OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN OLD AGE PENSION ON LABOUR SUPPLY OF THE ELDERLY

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the means tested South African Old Age Pension on labour supply amongst the elderly African subpopulation in South Africa. We find significant decreases in employment rates and labour supply. Those who remain employed beyond the pensionable age are more likely to work in jobs with flexible hours of work, and work even fewer hours than people in similar jobs who are not pension age‐eligible. Our results suggest that governments do need to consider the labour supply related incentives provided via its various welfare programmes.     

Parental Education and Children's School and Work Status in Urban Ethiopia: A Note on Gender Bias

This paper examines gender bias in the parental education–child status link using data from urban Ethiopia. Gender bias is defined here, specifically, as the differential impact of a parent's education on a child's status depending on the gender of the parent vis‐à‐vis the child. Children's status is measured by school enrolment and participation in market work. Results from a basic model point to same‐gender bias – father–son, mother–daughter in school enrolment and father–son in market work. In an extended model, results show that father–son bias in market work may be particularly pertinent for middle‐ to later‐born children. Policy interventions should be mindful of such differential effects, particularly if the aim is to address persistent gender disparities in children's status.     

Do E‐verify mandates improve labor market outcomes of low‐skilled native and legal immigrant workers?

We examine the impact of the 2007 Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA) on employment outcomes of low‐skilled legal workers. We use the synthetic control method to select a group of states against which the labor market trends of Arizona can be compared. Our results suggest that contrary to its intent, LAWA does not appear to have improved labor market outcomes of legal low‐skilled workers who compete with unauthorized immigrants, the target of the legislation. In fact, we find some evidence of diminished employment and increased unemployment among legal low‐skilled workers in Arizona. These findings are concentrated on the largest demographic group of workers—non‐Hispanic white men. While they are less likely to find employment, those who do have on average higher earnings as a result of LAWA. The pattern of results points to both labor supply and labor demand contractions due to LAWA, with labor supply dominating in terms of magnitude.     

Who is Better Off from Trade Liberalization? An Experience from Urban China*

Empirical studies have found that the skill wage gap (difference between wages earned by skilled and unskilled workers) narrowed in the case of the ‘Four Asian Dragons’ as they underwent trade liberalization during the 1960s and 1970s, whereas the gap widened in most of the Latin American countries after they liberalized their economies in the 1980s. China's integration into the world economy since 1978 has been used to explain this phenomenon, but few formal studies have been carried out in China regarding the effects of trade liberalization on the skill wage gap because of the limited availability of data. The present study uses unique household surveys conducted in ten provinces of China in 1988 and 1995 to study this issue. Results show that trade liberalization that occurred in China between 1988 and 1995 was responsible for an average increase of 28.73 yuan (approximately 20 percent of the total increase) in average monthly wages. However, trade liberalization significantly widened the urban skill wage gap in China by introducing an increase in income only for those who had 13 years or more of education (at least junior high school graduates). Interestingly, import liberalization also only benefited those who had more than 9 years of schooling; whereas export liberalization brought wage increases for people with 7–12 years of education. Finally, those with specific production skills from technical schools, rather than those with several years of general education, were mostly favored in the labor market in China between 1988 and 1995.     

Effects of cohort size on college premium: Evidence from China's higher education expansion

In this paper, we document the lesser-known heterogeneous trends of college/non-college earnings premium across age groups from 1995 to 2013 in China. Specifically, the college premium in 2013 for the younger group (age 25–34) was about 30 percentage points, similar to the level in 1995, while the college premium in 2013 for the older group (age 45–54) increased to 50 percentage points, nearly double that of 1995. To attribute these divergent trends of the college premium to the changes in the relative size of college workers, we use the model by Card and Lemieux (2001), which incorporates imperfect substitution between similarly educated workers in different age cohorts. Due to the distinctions of these trends in China, our identification is free of the overestimation issue that the existing studies suffer. Our results are similar to those in the U.S., U.K., Canada, and Japan. Holding the age cohort and survey year constant, a one unit increase in log relative size of college workers is associated with about 10 percentage points decrease in college/non-college premium and about 18 percentage points decrease in college/high school premium. We further find that the negative effect is much more substantial among the new entrants (age 25–29) than experienced workers (age 30–54). By this pattern, we demonstrate that the new labor market entrants are more sensitive to their own cohort size and argue that the confounding ability composition effect should not be a serious issue.     

How Do Local Labor Markets and Human Capital Affect Employment Outcomes after Job Loss?

This article uses the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics to evaluate how local industry concentration affects earnings losses for displaced workers. “Concentrated industries” are those industries with a high employment share within a labor market. This article compares earnings changes between displaced workers and job stayers within concentrated industries to the same within less concentrated industries. A separate comparison is made based on the expected level of job availability within the labor market. The findings show that earnings changes for displaced workers relative to job stayers are 7–13% higher within concentrated industries when job loss occurs during periods of high job availability. Earnings changes are 4.5–6% lower, however, when the same comparison is made during periods of low job availability. When firms are hiring workers, they are more likely to hire those previously employed within the same industry, since these workers have accumulated more relevant human capital.     

中国城市失业率--从出生组分析经济转型的影响

中国城市的失业率存在显著的差异,如果比较不同的教育群体,不同性别和不同出生组别的话。相对而言,在所有教育组内,年轻群组内存在比年老群组更高的失业率。年老群组在他们劳动生涯内,失业率长期维持在接近零的水平。然而对于年轻群组,情况大相径庭:失业率差异增大。对于年轻群组而言,失业率和教育程度呈现反向关系:大学以上教育依然维持最低失业率水平。性别的失业率差距随着教育程度的降低而扩大:最大差距出现在低等教育组。除此以外,出生组别之间的失业率差异随着年龄增加而扩大,而且这种差距也是在低等教育女性组最为明显,这也意味着低等教育女性在劳动力市场的需求处于极为不利的地位。我们对于这种群组之间的失业率差距提供了解释:国有企业高度集中导致了非常低的失业率,而经济转型过程中国有企业比重的下降伴随着劳动力市场自由化程度的提高, 带来了较高的失业率。     

Geography and educational inequality in China

Since the 1980s, educational reforms in China have decentralized administration and finance and privatized costs. These changes have emerged in the context of rapid economic growth and rising regional economic disparities. The reforms have mobilized new resources in support of education, but they have also exacerbated regional disparities in funding for schools. Analyses of trends in school finance and expenditures have emerged, but detailed studies of the shifting ties between geography and educational outcomes in the population have not.Using 2000 census data on year and location of birth and educational attainment, we begin to address this gap. We compare the links between birth province and educational outcomes across 5-year birth cohorts to illuminate trends in region-based inequalities. Results show that the percent of variation in years of schooling explained by birth province declined for cohorts born through the early 1960s, and then increased thereafter.Additional analyses use a dissimilarity index to characterize the strength of the link between geography and access to each level of schooling. This index indicates that the link between geography and access to primary school has greatly increased across cohorts, as the few without access to primary school are ever more concentrated in poor areas. The link between birth province and access to subsequent levels of schooling shows mixed trends through cohorts born in the early 1960s: stability for junior high school and a weakening trend for senior high school and college. Thereafter, the dissimilarity index increased, substantially for junior high school and slightly for senior high school and college.Results attest to the enduring significance of geography as an educational stratifier in China. More broadly, results suggest the importance of regional inequalities in conditioning the relationship between development and educational stratification.     

Youth unemployment in Northern Ireland

Nearly one tenth (8 per cent) of each cohort of school leavers in Northern Ireland experience long spells of unemployment and inactivity ("Status 0") between the ages of 16 and 18. This is important because many such young people are likely to end up unemployed and long-term unemployed in later life. In Northern Ireland around 15 per cent of the male workforce is unemployed, and around one half of these have been out of work for more than one year. This paper outlines the nature of the Status 0 experience amongst 16 and 17 year olds in Northern Ireland, and discusses three main aspects of policy which might guide the overall policy response in Northern Ireland and elsewhere.

Firstly, resources should be targeted carefully towards the most “at risk” young people, especially during the early stages of their progression through compulsory education. Secondly, relevant professionals should ensure that the most marginalised young people are not allowed to fall through the nets of mainstream provision and, in particular, every effort should be made to help young people avoid entering Status 0 immediately after leaving school. Thirdly, consideration should be given to the financial incentives faced by training providers in terms of recruiting low achievers who are at most risk of entering Status 0. There is some evidence to suggest that many of the existing incentives in Northern Ireland are inadequate and, in some cases, may exacerbate many of the problems faced by marginalised young people.