The nature of listed real estate companies: property or equity market?

This paper addresses the question of whether shares of public real estate companies should be treated as real estate or as equity investments. Because theoretical considerations do not suffice for making such a classification, we empirically investigate correlation structures and cointegration relationships of private and public real estate and equity markets for the United States and the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that public real estate stocks show similarities to the general stock market with regard to short-term return co-movements. For long-term investment horizons, the interdependence between direct and securitized real estate is much stronger. However, in the latter case, real estate stocks substantially lead the private property markets.

Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data

The aim of this study is to examine whether securitized real estate returns reflect direct real estate returns or general stock market returns using international data for the U.S., U.K., and Australia. In contrast to previous research, which has generally relied on overall real estate market indices and neglected the potential long-term dynamics, our econometric evaluation is based on sector level data and caters for both the short-term and long-term dynamics of the assets as well as for the lack of leverage in the direct real estate indices. In addition to the real estate and stock market indices, the analysis includes a number of fundamental variables that are expected to influence real estate and stock returns significantly. We estimate vector error-correction models and investigate the forecast error variance decompositions and impulse responses of the assets. Both the variance decompositions and impulse responses suggest that the long-run REIT market performance is much more closely related to the direct real estate market than to the general stock market. Consequently, REITs and direct real estate should be relatively good substitutes in a long-horizon investment portfolio. The results are of relevance regarding the relationship between public and private markets in general, as the ‘duality’ of the real estate markets offers an opportunity to test whether and how closely securitized asset returns reflect the performance of underlying private assets. The study also includes implications concerning the recent financial crisis.     

Liquidity dynamics across public and private markets

In this paper we investigate cross-asset liquidity between equity markets and REITs and between REITs and private real estate markets. While many studies have investigated REIT liquidity, and there is an emerging interest in liquidity in the private real estate markets, there appears to be little knowledge of the dynamics of cross-market liquidity. We find lower levels of liquidity for REITs compared to a set of control firms matched on size and book-to-market ratios. Commonality in liquidity is also lower for REITs than the controls and the overall market. However, we do find an important difference in share turnover for REITs, which appears to have a higher level of commonality than found in other studies. We suggest that this may be due to the financial crisis. Additionally we find evidence of similar time-series variation in liquidity for public and private real estate markets. We also find significant directional causality for most liquidity proxies from the public to private real estate markets. Finally our results show that there is strong contemporaneous correlation between both public and private real estate market liquidity and the term spread and real investment and consumption spending. REIT liquidity measures based on intraday data also appear to contain important information not found in measures constructed from daily returns.     

Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets

Using five assets (T-bills, bonds, stocks, and both public and private real estate), this study investigates how cointegration of capital markets affects the dynamics of public and private real estate markets. The results show that the price indices of the five assets are nonstationary and cointegrated. Some implications for the long-term equilibrium relationship for portfolio diversification, price discovery and prediction are discussed. In a Granger causality framework, error-correction augmented VAR models (VECM) and unrestricted VAR models are compared with respect to the conclusion regarding the interaction between public and private real estate returns. VECM is also shown to improve the prediction of private real estate returns relative to an unrestricted VAR model. These results raise questions about previous research studies regarding the dynamics between public and private real estate returns. It is shown that the long-term equilibrium relationship establishes a feedback between the two real estate markets, but the private market seems to informationally lead the public one. Possible explanations are also explored.     

Net Asset Value Discounts for Asian-Pacific Real Estate Companies: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Term Dynamics

This study investigates the time series behavior of real estate company net asset value discount/premium (NAVDISC) in eight Asian-Pacific securitized real estate markets from 1995 to 2003. We postulate that if there is a stable NAVDISC for real estate companies in the long-run, then there should be a long-run cointegrating relation between their stock prices (Ps) and net asset values (NAVs). Employing panel data cointegration econometrics that comprises three approaches; panel unit root test, heterogeneous panel cointegration test and dynamic panel error-correction modeling (ECM), we find that long run NAVDISCs persist in individual Asian-Pacific securitized real estate markets and the regional market. All the NAVDISCs exhibit mean reversion and that the respective disequilibrium errors fluctuate around the mean values. Moreover, NAV is an important factor that statistically explains the price variations in real estate stock prices regardless of their speed of mean-reversion in the NAV discount /premium.     

Changing integration of EMU public property markets

This paper examines the impact of the European Monetary Union (EMU) on European public property market integration. Results indicate that the property markets are long-run independent and show little evidence of short-run relationships prior to the formation of the EMU. However, the degree of interdependence and the extent of convergence among the largest property markets have intensified substantially after the launch of the Euro as the common currency in January, 1999. Moreover, each of the property markets under consideration is endogenous in that none is found to “dominate” the others toward long-run equilibrium. Short-run results indicate substantial interrelationships among the markets after the adoption of the Euro. Finally, the study shows that stock markets, bond markets, and public property markets follow similar convergence patterns.     

Financial markets and economic performances: Empirical evidence from five industrialized economies

This paper investigates the nature of the links between the development of financial markets and economic performances in five advanced economies. The vector error correction model (VECM) establishes the quantitative importance of long-run relationships among three financial variables and the real output. Granger's causality test then suggests short-run causality between financial markets and the real sector as well as the substitution effect of the individual sectors in the financial market of each country. The results support the supply-leading hypothesis that the development of financial markets spurs growth for all countries except for Canada. The demand-driven hypothesis is confirmed for Canada only in the short run.     

Volatility Decomposition and Correlation in International Securitized Real Estate Markets

This study contributes to the literature in international securitized real estate market volatility in three ways. Each market’s conditional volatility is decomposed into a “permanent” or long-run component and a “transitory” or short-run component via a component-GARCH model. Even though with the same number of common factors derived from the “permanent” and “transitory” volatility series, their loadings are not similar and consequently the long-run and short-run volatility linkages for some markets are different. Finally there are significant volatility co-movements between real estate and stock markets’ “permanent” and “transitory” components suggesting that real estate markets are at least not segmented from stock markets in international investing.     

System Dynamics Modeling of Chinese Urban Housing Markets for Pedagogical and Policy Analysis Purposes

This paper reports on the current state of a project to develop a system dynamics (SD) model for urban housing markets in China, aimed at facilitating policy analysis and supporting practical educational tools that might reach large numbers of potential entrepreneurs in China. Although numerous academic papers have applied SD models to real estate markets over the past generation, the technique remains relatively unknown and little used both in the academic economics literature and, more to the point, among practitioners and educators in the real estate community. Yet SD has the potential to address key needs among these constituencies, and extend and complement upon traditional economic methods. SD models are focused on modeling market transitions toward long-run equilibria, facilitating the study of the details of causality and the dynamic path of the market and features that are prominent in the history of housing markets in emerging markets. Different from intensive data-driven economic models, SD models are structural-based operational models that can more easily accommodate the actual non-market features and unique institutional components of these emerging real estate markets, where long-range historical data are not readily available. SD can provide intuitive and transparent model structures that should be able to improve pedagogy for educating large numbers of potential real estate entrepreneurs particularly in emerging market countries. For demonstration, in the present paper we choose to focus on the China-specific features of ‘speculative demand’ and ‘land financing scheme’, and use the newly developed SD model to explore the effects of land supply, “command-and-control” versus “market-driven” policies for housing in China. It is important to note, however, that while we chose China for the purposes of our study, the same technique can be applied to any emerging real estate market. Moreover, our research here can be seen as a stepping stone: Before a generalized SD model for emerging markets can be developed, it is both reasonable and appropriate to construct a model that is constrained to a manageable subset of the overall market space.     

Common factors in international securitized real estate markets

This study investigates the presence of common factors in the securitized real estate markets of the Untied States (US), United Kingdom (UK), Hong Kong (HK), and Singapore (SG). Using a combination of factor analysis and canonical correlation analysis on 10-year monthly return data for 142 real estate securities in the four markets, more common risk factors among real estate securities within a country than across countries are detected. In addition, there is at least one common securitized real estate market factor that is moderately correlated with the world real estate market, and to a lesser extent, with the world stock market. However, the degree of linkage across the four securitized real estate markets is much weaker than the strong linkages present across the four economies. It further appears that the extent to which correlations are found in international securitized real estate markets might largely be due to the increasing integrated nature of the world real economy, rather than a result of the globalization of financial markets. The results are preliminary, but indicative, and suggest that more studies exploring how common factors, together with the local market portfolio, could help explain the return-generating process of securitized real estate.     

Are stock and real estate markets integrated? An empirical study of six Asian economies

Rising asset prices spurred by Asia's emerging economy have drawn much attention recently. This study examines one source of growth patterns in asset prices by analyzing the integration relationship between stock markets and real estate markets in Asia. Six economies are selected for empirical analysis: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Results show that stock markets are integrated with real estate markets in Japan, and partially integrated with real estate markets in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. This implies that these two investment vehicles are substitutable in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan, and provide diversification potential for investment portfolios in South Korea and Singapore. Examining the timing of market changes, we found the real estate market leading the stock market in some countries, and the stock market leading the real estate market in others. We conclude that stock and real estate markets show a variety of inter-relationships depending on economic and political policy environments.     

Bond Market Development,Economic Growth and Other Macroeconomic Determinants: Panel VAR Evidence

This paper examines causal relationships between bond market development, economic growth and four other macroeconomic variables in 35 countries for the period 1993–2011. Bond market development is defined in terms of the significance and presence of public sector, private sector, and international bond issues. Additional covariates being considered are the inflation rate, the real effective exchange rate, the real interest rate, and a measure of openness to international trade. We use a panel vector auto-regression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality among these variables. Specifically, we find that bond market development and the four macroeconomic covariates may be long-run causative factors for economic growth. Thus, policy makers seeking to foster economic growth are warned to check multi-causal studies involving all these variables before setting their policies.     

私人信息、公开信息与中国的金融市场参与

金融市场的发展能够为长期的经济增长提供动力,家庭对金融市场的有限参与是制约金融发展的重要因素之一。2015年中国绝大多数家庭未能参与金融市场。本文采用倾向得分匹配方法考察了私人信息和公开信息对家庭金融市场参与的影响以及两者的影响差异。基于2015年CGSS数据集的分析结果显示,家庭拥有金融市场私人信息或者能够充分获取公开信息都会显著提升其参与金融市场的概率。家庭获取公开信息的渠道越广泛,经由各种渠道获取的公开信息越多,参与金融市场的概率就越高。总体而言,充分获取公开信息比拥有私人信息对家庭金融市场参与的影响更大,这是源于个体对两种信息质量预期的不同。公开信息具有比私人信息更广泛的信息来源和更强的可验证性,这提升了家庭对公开信息质量的预期,为其提供了参与金融市场的更大激励。对中国而言,改善政策制定和执行的效率以及政策承诺的可信性有助于提升家庭对公开信息质量的预期,从而鼓励家庭参与金融市场。     

The Asymmetric Wealth Effect in the US Housing and Stock Markets: Evidence from the Threshold Cointegration Model

Previous studies commonly use a linear framework to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship between the housing and stock markets. The linear approaches may not be appropriate if adjustments from disequilibrium are asymmetric in both markets. Nonlinear adjustments are likely to be observed since the two markets respond rather differently to negative shocks where the stock market is more volatile but price rigidity is found in the housing market. In this paper, we firstly propose two hypotheses on the long-run equilibrium relationship of the US housing and stock markets, and then employ the threshold cointegration model to investigate the potential asymmetric relationships between the two markets. Our empirical results reveal that cointegration exists among the markets, but adjustments toward its long-run equilibrium are asymmetric. Further evidence points out that a rapid mean reversion occurs in one regime where the stock price outperforms the housing price, and no significant reversion is found in the other regime, supporting the hypothesis of the existence of an asymmetric wealth effect among the two markets in the US. Furthermore, evidence from the asymmetric vector error correction model shows that significant error corrections toward the equilibrium exist in the short run only when the stock price exceeds the real estate price by the estimated threshold level, reassuring the finding of the asymmetric wealth effect.     

Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets: A Dynamic Analysis

Although the correlation between the public and private market pricing of real estate has generated considerable research effort, the methods utilized in previous studies have failed to capture the dynamic nature of this correlation. This paper proposes a new statistical method to address this issue. This method, known as the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model, enables us to study the dynamics of the correlation between the two markets over time and enrich our understanding of the public and private market pricing of real assets. We find that the correlation between NAV returns and REIT returns is dynamic for all REIT types and there is a strong degree of persistence in the series of correlation. Our Granger-causality tests show that price discovery generally takes place in the securitized public market. However, we also find significant variations across property types and individual firms within each type. Our results indicate that constructing an optimal portfolio requires firm level analysis of causality and correlation between REIT returns and NAV returns.     

Property shares, appraisals and the stock market: An international perspective

A severe problem facing both real estate researchers and investors is the lack of reliable real estate returns data. Property shares, the shares of companies which invest in property and manage a portfolio of real estate, have been proposed as indicators of real estate performance. Property shares exist in many countries, are publicly traded, and their returns are not inherently biased. For three countries, we investigate the relationships with common stock and appraisal-based returns which property share returns exhibit. Our results indicate that property shares are closely related to the stock markets on which they trade, thereby confirming previous findings for the United States. However, property share returns also predict appraisal-based indices.     

Housing Prices and Maturing Real Estate Markets: Evidence from Uganda

Uganda, a less developed but rapidly growing East African nation, continues to correct the economic mismanagement of past governments. One important legacy of this mismanagement is the Land Decree of 1975, issued by then President Idi Amin Dada. This decree nationalized all land and made illegal all private real estate market transactions. This paper uses a rich, but little known, dataset to show that real estate markets appear to have continued operating reasonably efficiently in spite of the 1975 Decree. The Land Act of 1998 repealed the 1975 Decree. Our results suggest the recent Act has a high likelihood of success because its primary goal is to codify guarantees of security, transparency, and enforceable property rights in private real estate markets that appear to already exist.     

The Causal Relationship Between Real Estate and Stock Markets

This paper examines the dynamic relationship that exists between the US real estate and S&P 500 stock markets between the years of 1972 to 1998. This is achieved by conducting both linear and nonlinear causality tests. The results from these tests provide a number of interesting observations which primarily show linear relationships to be spuriously affected by structural shifts which are inherent within the data. Linear test results generally show a uni-directional relationship to exist from the real estate market to the stock market. However, these results are not consistent with financial theory and for all sub-samples of the data. In contrast, the nonlinear causality test shows a strong unidirectional relationship running from the stock market to the real estate market, and is consistent in the presence of any structural breaks.     

Step Interventions and Market Integration: Tests in the U.S., U.K., and Australian Property Markets

Market integration implies the existence of some long-run equilibrium relationship between markets such that movements in one market are transmitted to movements in another. It is an interesting observation of much of the literature regarding a possible relationship between real estate and stock markets that there is relatively scant attention given to the possible existence of structural breaks and the impact that such breaks may have on tests for market integration. Other research has shown that failure to take into account structural breaks in various macroeconomic data series may have yielded misleading results on cointegration (in particular, unit root tests on individual series). In this article we examine the issue of whether the stock market and real estate markets are stationary or nonstationary in the presence of structural breaks. We adopt the techniques of Perron (1989), Zivot and Andrews (1992), and Perron and Vogelsang (1992). Each of these tests is based on different assumptions and therefore may yield differing results. In general, the results do not support cointegration of domestic property and equity markets or cointegration of markets internationally.     

Long-Term Co-Memories and Short-Run Adjustment: Securitized Real Estate and Stock Markets

This study considers whether securitized real estate and stock markets have long-term co-memories and implications for short-term adjustment. Our results offer reasonable support for fractional cointegration (characteristic of a long memory process) between securitized real estate price, stock market price and key macroeconomic factors in some economies. The implication is that where fractional cointegration prevails, securitized real estate and common stocks are substitutable assets over the long run and these assets may not be held together in a portfolio for diversification purpose. Furthermore, short-run analysis indicates that the speed of adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium is faster for fractional integrated vector error correction model (FIVECM) than VECM as the former incorporates a long history of past cointegration residuals. Additional comparisons of the two models’ forecasting accuracy show that incorporating fractional cointegration in a VECM model improves the forecasting performance over conventional VECM models. Our results reinforce the notion that cointegration, fractional cointegration and short-run adjustment dynamics are important in understanding market integration/segmentation.