Statistical properties of returns: Financial assets versus commercial real estate

This study examines the distribution of commercial real estate returns by region (east, midwest, south, and west), by property type (office, retail, R&D office, and warehouse) and in the aggregate, and compares their distributions to those of financial assets. Nominal and real returns are examined for quarterly, semiannual, and annual periods. The quarterly nominal returns on the financial assets are mostly normal with very little indication of autocorrelation. In contrast, non-normality and autocorrelation are present in most of the nominal quarterly real estate series. The non-normality is greatly reduced when semiannual or annual returns are considered or when the quarterly series are corrected for autocorrelation. The non-normality is also lower for real returns than it is for nominal returns.     

The Bootstrap Efficient Frontier for Mixed-Asset Portfolios

How much in real estate? To answer this question, uncertainty needs to be introduced into the efficient frontier, so that a confidence interval can be estimated for the real estate weight in a mixed-asset portfolio. Instead of focusing on a single optimal portfolio, this study examines the entire efficient frontier using the traditional point estimate method and the bootstrap simulation. The bootstrap distributions of the estimated weight vectors indicate that their confidence intervals are large enough to render them effectively useless. Once uncertainty is introduced, the efficient frontier becomes fuzzy and the weight vectors become even fuzzier.     

Diversification Issues in Real Estate Investment

Real estate asset management has been and will continue to be a topic of great interest. Specifically, does real estate warrant inclusion in an efficient portfolio? And if so, how much should be invested in real estate? This article reviews the extant literature in the area of real estate diversification and helps identify the reasons that there exists so much divergence in the answer to the question, “How much in real estate?” Moreover, diversification as it relates to real estate is discussed in reference to both mixed-asset portfolios and for diversification within the real estate asset class. Directions for future research are also discussed.     

The effect of product positioning in a comparison table on consumers’ evaluation of a sponsor

This paper examines the effect on consumers’ perceptions resulting from the positioning of a sponsor in relation to a competitor or competitors in a comparison table of a print advertisement. We hypothesize when a sponsor places its product in the right-hand panel and the competitor’s product in the left-hand panel, respondents will react with a favorable evaluation for the sponsor as a result of two primary forces. The first is a general preference for an object positioned on the right as opposed to an object positioned on the left. The second is a vastly prevalent left-to-right reading habit. The prevalent left-to-right reading habit can lead consumers to subconsciously perceive this layout as a positive comparative advertisement, and the reversed placement is perceived as a negative comparative advertisement. We confirmed the hypothesis with three laboratory experiments.     

Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets

Using five assets (T-bills, bonds, stocks, and both public and private real estate), this study investigates how cointegration of capital markets affects the dynamics of public and private real estate markets. The results show that the price indices of the five assets are nonstationary and cointegrated. Some implications for the long-term equilibrium relationship for portfolio diversification, price discovery and prediction are discussed. In a Granger causality framework, error-correction augmented VAR models (VECM) and unrestricted VAR models are compared with respect to the conclusion regarding the interaction between public and private real estate returns. VECM is also shown to improve the prediction of private real estate returns relative to an unrestricted VAR model. These results raise questions about previous research studies regarding the dynamics between public and private real estate returns. It is shown that the long-term equilibrium relationship establishes a feedback between the two real estate markets, but the private market seems to informationally lead the public one. Possible explanations are also explored.     

Sell-Offs of U.S. Real Estate: The Effect of Domestic versus Foreign Buyers on Shareholder Wealth

Large foreign acquisitions of U.S. real estate always seem to generate considerable public concern. Most recently the reaction has been to Japanese purchases, but similar reactions occurred to Arab petro-dollar purchases in the early 1970s. This study examines the impact of the buyer's nationality on the change in the wealth of the selling firm's shareholders for voluntary sell-offs of U.S. real estate. In general, this study indicates that voluntary sell-offs of real estate assets result in a significant increase in the wealth of the selling firm's shareholders. However, the change in the wealth of the selling firm's shareholders for U.S. buyers was not significantly different from that for non-U.S. buyers. Since no advance is indicated for foreign buyers over domestic buyers, laws or regulations hindering the foreign acquisition of U.S. real estate cannot be supported. The assumption of a "non-level playing field" for U.S. real estate investors who bid against foreign firms for U.S. real estate assets is not confirmed.     

The Impacts of Tiananmen Square Events on Hong Kong Real Estate and Non-real Estate Wealth

Based on the unique characteristics of real estate, the hypothesis of significant additional political sensitivity of real estate has been developed and tested in this study. By classifying six major kinds of events that took place preceding and during the Tiananmen Square demonstrations and performing the multivariate test, this study finds evidence that Hong Kong real estate, overall, is more sensitive than other Hong Kong industries to major political events in China.     

Stationarity and Cointegration in Systems with Real Estate and Financial Assets

This study examines the properties of wealth indices for investments in several asset classes (real estate, stocks, bonds, and Treasury bills), for several types of real estate (office, retail, research and development office, and warehouse), and by region (East, Midwest, South, and West). The series representing the value of investments in real estate and financial assets are not stationary; therefore, ordinary statistical procedures cannot be applied. Since many of the properties that are included in the real estate series have outside appraisals on an annual basis, especially in the fourth quarter, the real estate series may show seasonal influences. Hence, the appropriate test for cointegration is the Johansen's test, which is formulated in such a way as to allow for deterministic seasonality by the inclusion of seasonal dummy variables. The finding of cointegration implies that there is a long-run relationship between the series in the cointegrated system. When the CPI (or a proxy for inflation) is included in the three systems, the number of common factors increase to two, implying that inflation plays an important role in creating a linkage between these time series. These findings also have implications for developing portfolios comprising financial assets and real estate. The findings also have implications for developing a model to forecast real estate prices.     

The sensitivity of bank stock returns to real estate

According to the Federal Reserve Board, banking firms have recently been shifting significantly larger portions of their loan portfolios into real estate. This increase in real estate lending has caused concern about the continuing economic health of banks on the part of state and federal regulators, since changes in real estate returns, evidenced by changes in property value, can potentially have a significant impact on bank default risk and profit-ability. However, concerned parties do not seem to have explicitly considered the relationship between mortgage default risk and the specific characteristics of real estate investments.This study examines the sensitivities of stock returns for different bank groups, based on the percentage of total loans in real estate and the percentage of loans in five different mortgage categories (construction and development loans, farmland loans, one- to four-family residential loans, multifamily residential loans, and nonresidential and nonfarm loans), to changes in real estate market returns. This is done by developing and using a three-index model.The results of this study indicate that bank stocks, overall, are very sensitive to changes in real estae returns. Banks, with a larger portion of their total loans invested in all types of real estate loans, except farmland loans, are most sensitive to changes in real estate returns.