Dynamics of Private and Public Real Estate Markets

Using five assets (T-bills, bonds, stocks, and both public and private real estate), this study investigates how cointegration of capital markets affects the dynamics of public and private real estate markets. The results show that the price indices of the five assets are nonstationary and cointegrated. Some implications for the long-term equilibrium relationship for portfolio diversification, price discovery and prediction are discussed. In a Granger causality framework, error-correction augmented VAR models (VECM) and unrestricted VAR models are compared with respect to the conclusion regarding the interaction between public and private real estate returns. VECM is also shown to improve the prediction of private real estate returns relative to an unrestricted VAR model. These results raise questions about previous research studies regarding the dynamics between public and private real estate returns. It is shown that the long-term equilibrium relationship establishes a feedback between the two real estate markets, but the private market seems to informationally lead the public one. Possible explanations are also explored.     

The Effects of the Asian Crisis on Global Equity Markets

We investigate the comovement of daily returns from 13 Asian and non‐Asian markets before and after the advent of the Asian crisis in July 1997. For individual pairs of markets, our analysis shows a seven‐fold increase in feedback relations. For the markets as a group, we find a reduction in the number of common factors that generate returns. Since the post‐crisis period included the collapse of the Russian market and attack on the Brazilian real, we also analyze six three‐month subperiods surrounding the crisis. We find that the perceived increase in comovement during the post‐crisis interval was the result of subperiod transitory shocks.