COVID-19 and trade: Simulated asymmetric loss

This paper uses 2018 data as a benchmark to build a numerical 26-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost and an endogenous trade imbalance structure. We assume that COVID-19 will increase the trade cost between countries and decrease labor supply in production. We use China’s trade data from January to April in 2020 to calibrate the influence level parameters and then simulate the trade effects of COVID-19 in China, the EU, the US, and the world. Our simulation results find that all countries’ trade and exports will be significantly hurt by the pandemic. Due to the trade diversion effect and the price growth effect, some countries will see an increase in import trade. Comparatively, the pandemic has the most negative impact on global trade, followed by the EU, the US, and China. As the pandemic deepens, the negative impact on trade will increase. The worldwide pandemic has the most significant impact on US trade, with an effect about 1.5 times that of the average world effect.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network

Global trade suffered a significant contraction in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and its growth is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic trend. Did the relative importance of countries in the world trade network change as a result of the pandemic? The answer to this question is particularly important for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries because of their relative importance in world trade as well as their strong trade linkages with China, where the COVID-19 virus originated. This paper examines how the world trade network has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on ASEAN countries. Tracking the changes in centrality from January 2000 to March 2021, we find no evidence for most ASEAN and major trading countries that centrality changed significantly after the pandemic began. Our results suggest the resilience of the trade pattern for these countries.     

The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock

This study investigates how the effects of COVID-19 on international trade changed over time. To do that, we explore monthly data on worldwide trade from January to August in 2019 and 2020. Specifically, our study data include the exports of 34 countries to 173 countries. We estimated the gravity equation by employing various variables as a proxy for the COVID-19 damage. Our findings can be summarized as follows: First, regardless of our measures to quantify the COVID-19 pandemic, we found significantly negative effects of COVID-19 on the international trade of both exporting and importing countries. Second, those effects, especially the effects of COVID-19 in importing countries, tended to become insignificant since July 2020. This result implies that the harmful impacts of COVID-19 on international trade were accommodated after the first wave of the pandemic to some extent. Third, we found heterogeneous effects across industries. The negative effects on non-essential, durable products persist for a long time, whereas positive effects in industries providing medical products were observed.     

Product-destination Portfolio and Dynamics by Firm Ownership and Trade Mode： Evidence from Chinese Industrial Exporters

Using matched firm‐level trade and production data over the period 2000–2006, we study the product‐destination portfolio and dynamics of Chinese industrial exporters and make a thorough comparison among four types of firms and between two kinds of trade modes. We find that ownership structure and trading modes do matter to the destination and product mix choices of Chinese industrial exporters. In particular, foreign firms' exports and processing trade tend to be more destination‐specific and products are more specialized. Therefore, foreign firms are more likely to maintain a particular link within a specific global supply chain.     

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth

This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of real GDP over the course of 2020 and 2021. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic variables and global trade in transmitting the economic effects of COVID-19. We estimate panel data regressions of the quarterly growth in real GDP on pandemic variables for 90 countries over the period 2020 Q1 through 2021 Q4. We find that readings on the number of COVID-19 deaths had a very small effect in our aggregate sample. On the other hand, changes in the stringency of the lockdown measures taken by governments to restrict the spread of the virus were an important influence on GDP. The economic effects of the pandemic differed between rich and poor countries: COVID-19 deaths exerted a somewhat greater drag on GDP in advanced economies, although this difference was not statistically significant, whereas lockdown restrictions were more injurious to economic activity in emerging and developing economies. In addition to these domestic pandemic effects, global trade represented a significant channel through which the economic effects of the pandemic spilled across national borders. This finding underscores how globalization makes each country vulnerable not only to medical contagion from the COVID-19 pandemic, but to economic contagion as well.     

Impact of temporary trade barriers: Evidence from China

With a decrease in tariffs around the world, temporary trade barriers (TTBs) have increased dramatically to take their place. These TTBs are usually in the form of antidumping duties, countervailing duties and global safeguards. Recently, an increasing number of these TTBs have been targeted towards China. In this paper, I explore the impact of the US temporary trade barriers (TTBs) on Chinese exports. Using detailed product level data for the period 2002–2008, I find robust evidence of trade deflection i.e. the US trade barriers against China led to an increase in the growth of Chinese exports to other countries. However, I do not find any evidence of trade depression. The results are robust to a wide variety of specification and robustness tests. While I do not find any difference in the impact of TTBs across developed and developing countries, there is considerable heterogeneity in response to TTBs depending on the type of products involved. Specifically, I find that, while the US TTBs on non-steel products lead to an increase in Chinese exports of those products to third markets, there is a significant chilling effect in case of steel. Finally, most of the trade-deflection seems to be along the intensive margins i.e. an increase in exports to the existing third country markets rather than exports to new markets. If anything, the US TTBs on China seem to decrease Chinese exports to newer and more volatile markets.     

Global production networks and China's processing trade

This paper unveils a systematic pattern in China's processing trade. In a cross-section of Chinese provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated to the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three-country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced countries, East and West, sell their products in each other's markets. Each firm can use two modes to serve the foreign market. It can directly export its products from its home country. Alternatively, it can indirectly export to the foreign market by assembling its product in a third low-cost country, China, which is located in the vicinity of East. Our model establishes two theoretical predictions relating China's geographical location to its processing trade patterns. First, China's processing exports are negatively affected by both an increase in import distance and a rise in export distance. Second, China's processing exports to East Asian countries are more sensitive to export distance and less sensitive to import distance than its processing exports to non-Asian countries. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

反倾销、贸易政策不确定性与中国企业高质量出口

贸易摩擦和保护主义频发加剧了贸易不确定性。本文试图从反倾销引致的贸易政策不确定性(TPU)这一新视角阐述微观企业如何应对不利冲击以实现高质量出口。基于全球反倾销数据和高度细化的海关数据匹配得到的2000-2008年样本数据,利用高维面板固定效应估计模型,本文对TPU如何影响多产品企业高质量出口进行了实证检验。研究发现：①TPU提高,会倒逼企业升级出口产品质量,考虑逆向因果等潜在内生性问题之后,结果依然稳健。②企业内产品转换是TPU倒逼出口企业产品质量升级的主要作用机制。③异质性分析发现,加工贸易、外资企业、资本品行业和高技术行业中,这一倒逼效应更显著。在国际价值链断裂加剧贸易不确定性的新形势下,本文对于深刻理解TPU和高水平对外开放之间的关联具有重要意义。     

新冠疫情全球扩散对中国开放经济和世界经济的影响

在巩固新冠肺炎疫情防控成效的同时,中国经济在努力复工复产复市。因疫情防控导致境内外交通运输联系不同程度被阻断,商品运输成本提高、交货日期延长,中间品与劳动力供应不足,中国进出口贸易和国际直接投资增长面临很大压力。中国企业复工复产受到全球价值链运行态势影响,疫情全球扩散正在引发全球范围内经济结构、财政政策、货币政策、贸易政策调整。疫情在全球范围扩散,使企业经营压力上升,造成金融恐慌并引起全球经济深度衰退的可能性增加;为抗击疫情增加财政补贴和实施宽松货币政策,增加了各国财政负担,带来全球范围内的通货膨胀压力加大;部分国家试图借口疫情防控,发动新的贸易摩擦的可能性增加。     

Sleeplessness in COVID-19 pandemic: Lockdown and anxiety

This paper investigates the sleeplessness in Chinese cities during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We provide first evidence of a link from daily COVID-19 cases resulting in sleep loss in a panel of Chinese cities. We use Wuhan, which was the first city to be completely locked down, as basis to present the result that sleeplessness has become a considerably serious issue owing to the COVID-19 pandemic. In using the intervention policy of various cities as exogenous shocks, we find that lockdown policies significantly increase the sleeplessness level of Chinese cities. In addition, the severity of COVID-19 pandemic significantly exacerbates the negative effect of lockdown policies on sleep quality in the city. Overall, this study indicates that policy makers should pay more attention to public mental health when citizens recover from COIVD-19 by investigating the unintended consequences of COVID-19 on sleeplessness level of cities.     

Expenditure responses to the COVID-19 pandemic

We examine how the COVID-19 contagion influences consumer expenditure patterns. We show that the consumption expenditure responses to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are significantly different between the older and younger generations. We find that older adults spend less than the younger generation by at least 5% during the pandemic. In fact, those aged above 60 significantly decrease their spending even on food and drink products by 13%. We also find that older adults forgo shopping in favor of the younger generation. These responses might be due to the fear of COVID-19 infection (Immordino et al., 2022).     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

COVID-19-associated income loss and job loss: Evidence from Indonesia

COVID-19 pandemic has substantially altered socioeconomic conditions around the world. While numerous existing studies analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic among developed states, little is known about its effects on people’s lives and social discrepancies in emerging economies. To this end, we empirically analyze the 2020 Indonesian Labor Force Survey data, hypothesizing that COVID-19 has given idiosyncratic risks and impacts on people by gender, age, education, occupation and regions. We find that income loss and job loss are prominent among males, younger and less educated people as well as among self-employed and part-time non-agricultural workers. These tendencies are not pronounced for people enjoying high income and mobility, but tend to be evident for urban residents and those having dependents. Notably, self-employed people have the highest risk of losing income, while part-time urban workers face the highest probability of losing their jobs. The propensity score matching method also demonstrates that these losses are most evident for the regions susceptible to COVID-19. Overall, we suggest that socioeconomically disadvantaged groups require additional support to strengthen their resilience in the face of exogenous shocks, such as the one caused by the global coronavirus pandemic.     

An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports

We analyze the trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on imports from the United States in the period from January 2017 to May 2019. We apply the difference-in-differences approach to the up-to-date China Customs data on imports disaggregated by eight-digit HS product category and source country. We find large reductions in the value and quantity of imports from the US and an almost complete tariff pass-through onto import prices. These results remain robust to extensive changes in the specification and in data sample and to a variety of placebo tests using processing imports or exempted products that were originally included in the tariff lists but removed before implementation. We also find that the trade and price effects are heterogeneous across products, differing either in the end-use or in the ownership types of the importing firm. Similar to recent findings in the US (Amiti et al., 2019, Amiti et al., 2020), our estimates suggest limited terms-of-trade gain due to China's tariff hikes.     

China's impact on South African trade and inflation

There has been much controversy about the impact of Chinese growth on the rest of the world. It is generally accepted that China has a dampening effect on global inflation through the supply of cheap products. On the other hand, imports from China could displace domestic production and hence have adverse effects on economic growth and employment. Thus, the question of whether a country benefits from trading with China is a country-specific issue. The results in this paper indicate that limited short-term costs have resulted from the strengthening of trade relations between South Africa and China. As far as inflation is concerned, the paper does not find convincing empirical evidence at the aggregate level for inflation in China leading to domestic price changes. At the disaggregate level, however, there appear to be stronger sector-specific linkages between prices in China and South Africa.     

COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia

COVID-19 has had an enormous effect on labor markets globally. Economic restrictions, notably strict border controls and lockdowns, have led many workers to lose their jobs and forced many migrants to return to their homes or change their migration plans. While adverse effects on labor mobility are expected, variations in the prevalence of COVID-19 and governmental responses to the pandemic across countries are likely to influence workers’ intentions to migrate in different ways. To understand the effects of pandemics on the international labor supply, we explore the impact of COVID-19 and the various economic restriction policies on job search behavior by considering cases from Southeast Asian countries using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach with data from Google Trends Index (GTI). We find that the search volume of queries related to the labor market dramatically increased over time following the outbreak of COVID-19. However, we do not observe any positive impact on the search volume related to emigration, regardless of the infection control measures in the host countries. Our results imply that the job insecurity increases after the imposition of lockdown in the respective countries. On the other hand, the expectation to migrate outside of the country, which requires preparation time and incurs high costs, does not seem to have increased in developing countries.     

Pandemic and employment: Evidence from COVID-19 in South Korea

Using two complementary approaches, this study examines the deterioration of the Korean labor market during the first 10 months of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Applying the synthetic control method, we first find that the COVID-19 outbreak has eliminated 1.1 million jobs (4.2% of nonfarm employment) nationwide in April 2020. However, a difference-in-differences approach shows that local variation in COVID-19 intensity, which captures the “regional” effect of the pandemic, explains only 9% of the national shock. The portion of the regional effect remains low until December. This is mainly because the nationwide fear and policies such as social distancing measures also have a “common” effect on local economies. Our findings suggest that the COVID-19 shock may last long in the labor market due to this common effect unless the risk of infection is completely eliminated.     

Out of the shadows: Impact of SARS experience on Chinese netizens' willingness to donate for COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control

While charitable donations help to raise funds and contribute to pandemic prevention and control, there are many unanswered questions about how people make such donation decisions, especially in countries like China where charitable donations have played an increasing role in recent years. This study contributes to the literature by assessing the potential impacts of Chinese netizens' experience with the 2002 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic on their willingness to donate for COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control. Specifically, this study applies a difference-in-differences (DID) model to a dataset collected from a nationwide survey to examine how individuals' exposure to the SARS epidemic affects their willingness to donate to alleviate the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that individuals' SARS epidemic experiences in their early lives, especially during the “childhood-adolescence” period, had a lasting and far-reaching impact on their willingness to donate toward COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control. Also, the impacts were likely heterogeneous by such sociodemographic factors as educational background, health status, and income level. The empirical findings highlight the importance of considering early-life experiences in developing and implementing epidemic prevention and control policies. While the SARS experience likely affected Chinese netizens' willingness to donate toward COVID-19 pandemic prevention and control, lessons learned from both the SARS epidemic and COVID-19 pandemic could be used to develop more effective public health education and prevention programs as well as to increase public donations for future pandemic prevention and control.     

The social scar of the pandemic: Impacts of COVID-19 exposure on interpersonal trust

This paper employs a difference-in-differences strategy to examine the causal effect of exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic on interpersonal trust amidst zero-COVID policies in China. Using a nationally representative panel survey, we find that COVID-19 exposure leads to a decrease in the levels of generalized trust. We also show that the change in interpersonal trust varies across domains. Specifically, COVID-19 exposure significantly decreases trust in parents, neighbors, and local government officials, but has small and insignificant effects on trust in doctors, strangers, and Americans. Empirical tests suggest that changes in income and physical health status are not likely to be potential channels. We provide some evidence for the mechanism of deteriorated mental health status and pessimistic expectations.     

海南省水产品贸易调研分析

海南省拥有全国十分之一的海岸线和广阔的大陆架,海洋捕捞以及近海养殖条件优越,是我国拥有海洋资源最为丰富的省份,其水产品出口贸易额占到全省农产品出口总额的近90%以上,成为海南省对外贸易的亮点之一。但是,相对于山东、广东等水产品贸易大省,海南省水产品贸易行业仍有很大差距。面对日益严峻的国际经济形势,如何迅速提升海南省水产品国内外贸易竞争力,对海南省经济的发展具有重要意义。本文通过分析海南省水产品贸易的现状及其存在的问题,从市场开拓、产品深加工、品牌建设、优化产品结构、积极应对国际贸易壁垒等方面提出进一步提升海南省水产品贸易竞争力的相应对策。