保险资金投资组合研究与MATLAB实现

保险资金运用的一个主要渠道就是风险投资,近年来,我国保险资金的投资比例不断上升,已超过90%。合理的投资不但能弥补承保亏损,还是保险公司主要的利润来源,促进保险行业的稳定发展。在保险资金投资实行大类监管的背景下,投资限制减少,投资选择丰富,合理的投资策略显得极为重要。本文根据Markowitz投资组合理论,构造保险公司投资的二次规划模型,通过MATLAB计算得出最优投资组合策略,并给出合理化的政策建议。     

基于VaR模型的保险资金投资风险度量与优化

保险投资收益是我国保险业提高偿付能力、增加经营利润的重要支柱.随着险资运用渠道的不断拓宽,一方面有利于整个保险投资组合收益率的提高,另一方面增加了资金运用的市场风险.本文以484个交易日的上证指数、上证国债指数、上证基金指数和一年期SHIBOR为样本数据,运用VaR模型对我国保险资金运用的风险进行了实证度量,结果显示:股票和证券投资基金是保险资金运用的主要风险来源;银行存款带来的投资风险正逐渐加大;国债依然是投资组合中风险最小的资产.对此,必须进一步优化保险投资结构,从而实现保险资金运用风险收益的有效匹配.     

我国保险资金投资不动产的现状与问题

随着我国保险业的迅速发展,保费收入激增,保险资金规模迅速增长,保险公司面临着越来越大的经营压力,需要提高保险资金运用的效率,构建更多元化的投资渠道来规避市场风险。2009年10月1日实施的新《保险法》进一步拓展了保险资金运用渠道,为我国     

投资渠道开放对保险资金运用的影响研究

为了顺应保险业的发展趋势,保监会出台了一系列投资渠道开放的政策文件,增加投资范围,提高投资比例,这无疑对保险公司的盈利能力产生积极意义,但与此同时,它对保险机构的风险控制能力提出了更高的要求。本文详细分析了在投资渠道逐步拓宽过程中我国保险资金运用的情况及存在的问题,重点分析在新政策下投资渠道开放对保险资金运用带来的预期影响,最后提出了相关政策建议。     

B-L模型的保险资金投资多元化问题研究——从行为投资组合角度

保险资金应用是我国保险行业发展的新亮点,但是在投资中存在着投资行为不合理的问题,这严重制约着我国保险业的健康发展。经分析认为目前投资模式不当的主要问题是资产组合方法有缺陷,认为在构建资产组合时应该考虑投资人的非理性,从行为金融学角度构建了保险投资模型,在模型中加入了投资人的主观观点,这样使投资模式更趋合理。本文利用Bl...     

我国保险资金运用问题研究

本文通过对我国保险资金运用现状的分析,系统地阐述了拓宽保险资金运用渠道的必要性,讨论了保险资金可能的新投资渠道。     

基于分位数回归模型的保险资金运用风险研究

保险业是我国金融体系的重要组成部分,如何拓宽保险资金运用渠道,以及如何在保险资金的运用中建立相应的风险衡量和管理体系,一直是我国理论界和实务部门研究和关注的问题,尤其是在保监会投资新政的逐步出台,保险资产的投资渠道大大放宽的情况下,更要合理的度量和管控保险资金运用的风险.本文以上证180指数、上证国债指数、上证企业债指数、上证基金指数和上证房地产指数为样本数据,将比较前沿的分位数回归方法应用于VaR模型来对我国保险资金运用的风险进行实证测度,结果发现,不动产投资和股票、基金投资风险较大,并通过研究各资产的增量VaR发现不动产和基金投资会加大资产组合的风险,因此,保险公司必须审慎的投资新增渠道,从而实现保险资金运用风险和收益的有效匹配.     

中、美保险 奖金运用对比

我国保险资金运用从无投资到盲目投资,再逐渐过渡到有投资有监管的新阶段,保险资金投资收益也越来越受到保险业的重视。本文通过对我国保险资金运用渠道的变迁等资金运用和美国保险资金运用情况的横向、纵向对比分析,得到我国保险资金再运用的启示。     

保险资金投资股票市场的国际经验及对我国的启示

保险资金投资股票市场的国际经验 经验一：保险资金入市的资金结构 事实上，各国都根据本国的国情制定了不同的保险资金投资管理制度，使各国保险资金的投资分布不完全一样。从统计资料中我们发现，保险业发达国家或地区的保险资金的投资渠道呈多元化与国际化态势。多种投资渠道有利于超大规模的保险资金进行组合投资，从而有效地规避投资风险并获得可观的投资收益。随着经济的发展，投资逐步呈证券化趋势，投资于股     

中、美保险资金运用对比

我国保险资金运用从无投资到盲目投资,再逐渐过渡到有投资有监管的新阶段,保险资金投资收益也越来越受到保险业的重视。本文通过对我国保险资金运用渠道的变迁等资金运用和美国保险资金运用情况的横向、纵向对比分析,得到我国保险资金再运用的启示。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…