Bank Consolidation, Internationalization, and Conglomeration: Trends and Implications for Financial Risk

This paper documents trends in bank activity, consolidation, internationalization, and financial firm conglomeration with data on more than 100 countries, and explores the extent to which financial firm risk and systemic risk potential in banking are related to consolidation and conglomeration. The relationship between consolidation, conglomeration and financial risk is documented using financial data on the largest 500 financial firms worldwide and on large banks in about 90 countries. We find that (a) large conglomerate firms did not exhibit levels of risk‐taking lower than smaller and specialized firms in 1995, while they exhibited higher levels of risk‐taking in 2000; (b) highly concentrated banking systems exhibited levels of systemic risk potential higher than less concentrated systems during the 1993–2000 period, and this relationship has strengthened during the 1997–2000 period. We outline research directions aimed at explaining why bank consolidation and conglomeration may not necessarily yield either safer financial firms or more resilient banking systems.     

Inside the black box: Bank credit allocation in China’s private sector

This study examines how the Chinese state-owned banks allocate loans to private firms. We find that the banks extend loans to financially healthier and better-governed firms, which implies that the banks use commercial judgments in this segment of the market. We also find that having the state as a minority owner helps firms obtain bank loans and this suggests that political connections play a role in gaining access to bank finance. In addition, we find that commercial judgments are important determinants of the lending decisions for manufacturing firms, large firms, and firms located in regions with a more developed banking sector; political connections are important for firms in service industries, large firms, and firms located in areas with a less developed banking sector.     

Investment,internal funds and public banking in Germany

Previous studies supposed that low investment-cash flow sensitivities of German firms may be caused by a dominance of public banking. The paper addresses this assumption and applies a unique accounting dataset of German firms. Results from a dynamic version of the sales accelerator model show that the dependence of investment spending on internal funds does not significantly differ among firms attached to savings banks, cooperative banks or commercial banks. Thus, the importance of the public banking sector in Germany may not explain the rather low dependence of German firms on internal funds, and public ownership of banks does not seem to be important for reducing financing constraints.     

The determinants of firm–bank relationships in Italy: bank ownership type,diversification and multiple banking relationships

This paper investigates the main features of the relationships between banks and non-financial firms in Italy. Based on detailed firm-level data, we analyse the role of firm-level characteristics, decision-making factors and local credit market indicators in shaping various aspects of corporate banking choices. Empirical results show that young and small firms have a higher probability of relationships with local banks, confirming the advantage of local credit institutions in dealing with informationally opaque firms. Large and internationally active firms tend to establish relationships with national and foreign banks, as they are able to provide more complex banking services that are crucial to access foreign markets. Moreover, firms that are more dependent on external financing are more likely to use multiple and differentiated banking relationships, as a way to diversify external financing sources and alleviate credit constraints.     

BANKING RELATIONSHIPS AND THE EFFECT OF MONITORING ON LOAN PRICING

In a sample of bank loans to small firms we find a positive relation between the bank's monitoring effort and the loan's interest rate. We also observe an inverse relation between the closeness of banking relationships and interest rates. Further, we see that banks less frequently monitor firms with whom they have closer relationships. We conclude that banking relationships are valuable because firms can significantly reduce their costs of capital by establishing and maintaining close ties to a particular bank. As firms successfully complete loan transactions with banks, banks monitor them less frequently and, ultimately, charge them lower interest rates.     

赶超战略与大银行垄断——基于新结构经济学的视角

改革开放初期,中国有很多资本高度密集的大型国有企业,需要大量资金维持生产运营,若无法获得足够的银行贷款以致资金链断裂而破产倒闭,极易引发动荡。本文研究发现,在当时中国资本稀缺的要素禀赋结构下,为确保“重要而不能倒”的国有企业获得足够的银行贷款而不破产倒闭,不适合采用放开银行准入以促使银行竞争的方式,反而应限制银行准入,控制银行数量。原因在于,放开银行准入增加的仅是中小银行,其资金动员能力有限,与国有企业的规模特性不相匹配,更重要的是,大量中小银行进入会分流大银行的存款,降低大银行的资金动员及服务国有企业的能力,导致国有企业的贷款成本和破产风险因此而上升。本文指出,一个国家的银行业结构内生于该国的经济发展战略。限制银行准入的政策安排通过在金融方面支持国有企业,在改革初期起到了维护国防安全、保障国计民生和维持社会经济稳定的作用,为平稳推动改革创造了条件。     

Does banking deregulation affect accounting conservatism?

This study examines the effect of banking competition on borrowing firms’ conditional accounting conservatism (i.e., asymmetric timely loss recognition). The context of the study is the staggered passage of the Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (IBBEA), the deregulation that permits banks to establish branches across state lines and increases bank competition. I find that firms report less conservatively after the passage of the IBBEA in their headquarter states. The effect on conditional conservatism is stronger for firms in states with a greater increase in competition among banks, firms that are more likely to borrow from in-state banks, firms with greater financial constraint, and firms subject to less external monitoring. Additional tests confirm that the decline in conditional conservatism is observed only after the adoption of IBBEA and lasts for two years. The findings indicate that banks tend to “lowball” borrowers when competition arises by relaxing their demand for conservative reporting. Overall, this study highlights the unintended impacts of banking competition on borrowing firms’ financial reporting.     

Financial development,government ownership of banks and firm innovation

Using a newly-available World Bank survey of over 28,000 firms from 46 countries, we examine how financial development affects firm innovation around the world. We find that while stock market development significantly enhances firm innovation, banking sector development has mixed effects. We show that the latter result can be explained by different levels of government ownership of banks. Specifically, in countries with lower government ownership of banks, banking sector development significantly enhances firm innovation; while in countries with higher government ownership of banks, banking sector development has no significant or sometimes even significantly negative effects on firm innovation. Such negative effects are significantly stronger for smaller firms. The results are robust to various controls such as firms’ human capital and ownership structure, to estimations using instrumental variable techniques and alternative measures of firm innovation.     

Lending competition and credit availability for new firms: Empirical study with the price cost margin in regional loan markets

In this paper, I present statistical evidence of the impact of lending competition on credit availability for new firms. A discrete-time duration analysis with respect to the years from the start-up to the first loan approval by a commercial bank or a cooperative bank, which is collected from survey data in Japan, shows that the higher price cost margin (PCM) of banks, which reflects the existence of a quasi-rent for a bank, improves the credit availability for younger firms. Additional analysis to detect the regional determinants of the PCM of banks shows that the share of larger banks in each local credit market has a negative and significant impact on the PCM. In light of the existing empirical finding that smaller banks are more likely to provide relationship banking, these findings provide indirect evidence for the hypothesis that the intensity of relationship banking in each local credit market increases the PCM and this encourages banks to extend a loan to new firms so that they can pre-empt the opportunity to establish lending relationships that are expected to yield such quasi-rents.     

Systemic risk and asymmetric responses in the financial industry

To date, an operational measure of systemic risk capturing nonlinear tail-comovements between system-wide and individual bank returns has not yet been developed. This paper proposes an extension of the CoVaR methodology in Adrian and Brunnermeier (2011) to capture the asymmetric response of the banking system to positive and negative shocks to the market-valued balance sheets of individual banks. Building on a comprehensive sample of U.S. banks in the period 1990–2010, the evidence in this paper shows that ignoring asymmetries that feature tail-interdependences may lead to a severe underestimation of systemic risk. On average, the relative impact on the system of a fall in individual market value is sevenfold that of an increase. Moreover, the downward bias in systemic-risk measuring from ignoring this asymmetric pattern increases with bank size. In particular, the conditional tail-comovement between the banking system and a bank that is losing market value belonging to the top size-sorted decile is nearly 5.5 times larger than the unconditional tail-comovement versus 3.3 times for banks in the bottom decile. The asymmetric model also produces much better fitting, with the restriction that gives rise to the standard symmetric model being rejected for most firms in the sample, particularly, in the segment of large-scale banks. This result is important from a regulatory and supervisory perspective, since the asymmetric generalization enhances the capacity to monitor systemic interdependences.     

Does lending relationship help or alleviate the transmission of liquidity shocks? Evidence from a liquidity crunch in China

We examine China’s June 2013 liquidity crunch as a negative shock to banks and analyze the wealth effects on exchange-listed firms. Our findings suggest that liquidity shocks to financial institutions negatively impact borrower performance, particularly borrowers reporting outstanding loans at the end of 2012. Stock valuations of firms with long-term bank relationships, however, outperform the market and experience smaller subsequent declines in investment than peers lacking solid banking relationships. This effect is the strongest for firms that enjoy good relations with China’s large state-owned banks or foreign banks, and weakest for firms whose connections are solely with local banks. We document a positive correlation between the stock performances of firms and the stock performances of lender banks and the likelihood of lender banks operating as net lenders in the interbank market. These results suggest that banks transmit liquidity shocks to their borrowing firms and that a long-term bank-firm relationship may mitigate the negative effects of a liquidity shock.     

Bank selection and share of wallet among SMEs: Apparent differences between Hong Kong and Australia

This paper examines the factors that small- to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Hong Kong consider when selecting a banking partner, and the extent to which they use different banks (share of wallet). The findings are contrasted with those from another study of Australian business. The results show that firms in both countries view a bank's willingness to accommodate their banking and credit needs as being important. Hong Kong firms appear to give this factor higher priority when making their bank selection, while Australian firms appear to place higher emphasis on long-term relationships. Australian firms appear to have a more stable relationship with their primary bank as compared to the firms in Hong Kong where switching behaviours are found to be common. While ‘guanxi’ is often seen as critical in maintaining a business relationship in the Asian context, this study suggests it has limited impact for SMEs in Hong Kong in increasing share of wallet. The findings offer marketing implications for banks that are operating, or are planning to operate, business banking in both places.     

Banks and bubbles: How good are bankers at spotting winners?

This paper examines the bank lending relations of a large sample of technology and nontechnology firms that went public during the 1996–2000 period. We use a unique hand-collected data set to examine the characteristics of firms that establish pre- Initial Public Offering (IPO) bank lending relations and whether post-IPO performance is related to the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. We find that the majority of IPO firms have banking relations before they go public. Firms with banking relations are older, more profitable or, in the case of tech firms, have lower losses, and are more likely to have funding from venture capitalists than firms without banking relations. We also find that banks lent aggressively to technology firms in the sense that current earnings and cash flows were significantly less important in determining banking relations for technology firms than for nontechnology firms. Consistent with the importance of so-called soft information in lending decisions, we find that, controlling for ex ante observable risk measures, there is a positive and significant relation between improvements in post-IPO operating performance and the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. Overall, our results indicate that firms with the best current and future prospects establish banking relations. Our findings provide an explanation as to why investors could interpret lending relations as a positive signal of firm quality.     

Competition from Large, Multimarket Firms and the Performance of Small, Single-Market Firms: Evidence from the Banking Industry

We offer and test two competing hypotheses for the consolidation trend in banking using U.S. banking industry data over the period 1982–2000. Under the efficiency hypothesis , technological progress improved the performance of large, multimarket firms relative to small, single-market firms, whereas under the hubris hypothesis , consolidation was largely driven by corporate hubris. Our results are consistent with an empirical dominance of the efficiency hypothesis over the hubris hypothesis—on net, technological progress allowed large, multimarket banks to compete more effectively against small, single-market banks in the 1990s than in the 1980s. We also isolate the extent to which technological progress occurred through scale versus geographic effects and how they affected the performance of small, single-market banks through revenues versus costs. The results may shed light as well on some of the research and policy issues related to community banking.     

Banks as delegated risk managers

Risk management, although of major importance in the banking industry in practice, plays only a minor role in the theory of banking. We reduce this gap by putting forward a model in which risk managers – specialists that can find out correlations between risky assets – endogenously take over typical functions of banks. They grant loans, they consult on financial questions with firms that are threatened by bankruptcy, and they sign tailor-made hedge transactions with these firms. Delegation costs are innately low if banks assume the function of risk managers in an economy. Risk management can be seen as a core competence of banks.     

Changing banking relationships and client‐firm performance: Evidence from Japan for the 1990s

The extant literature generally suggests that the performance of client firms deteriorates if their distressed main bank reduces the supply of credit. However, this insight is only consistent with the notion that main banks have an information advantage over other banks to the extent that a client firm has trouble getting access to credit if the firm changes its main bank. This paper shows that Japanese firms did change their main banking relationship when their main banks become distressed in a period with financial shocks. Surprisingly, these firms did not suffer from loss of access to credit and actually their performance significantly improved after their change of main banks.     

Do Firms Adjust Their Timely Loss Recognition in Response to Changes in the Banking Industry?

This paper investigates the impact of changes in the banking sector on firms’ timely recognition of economic losses. In particular, we focus on the entry of foreign banks into India during the 1990s, which likely causes an exogenous increase in lender demand for timely loss recognition. Analyzing variation in both the timing and the location of the new foreign banks’ entries, we find that foreign bank entry is associated with more timely loss recognition and this increase is positively related to a firm's subsequent debt levels. The change appears driven by a shift in firms’ incentives to supply additional information to lenders and lenders seem to value this information. The increase in timely loss recognition is also concentrated among firms more dependent on external financing: private firms, smaller firms, and nongroup firms. Overall, our evidence suggests that a firm's accounting choices respond to changes in the banking industry.     

银行价格竞争、融资约束与企业研发投资——基于“中介效应”模型的实证研究

近年来我国利率市场化改革积极推进,实体经济发展积极向创新驱动转型,一个亟须研究厘清的关键问题是,银行业竞争如何驱动企业创新活动？本文关注银行价格竞争对企业创新的影响,以2013—2018年沪深两市的上市企业为样本,采用“中介效应”因果分析模型,实证检验了银行价格竞争对企业研发投资的影响,并识别出以融资约束为中介渠道的作用机制。研究发现,银行价格竞争不仅会提高银行的风险容忍度,直接增加R&D投资的信贷供给意愿,而且还会通过降低贷款价格和增加贷款可得性来缓解企业整体的融资约束,间接促进企业创新活动。这一机制在解除贷款利率管制之后以及在民营企业层面体现得更加明显。本文的研究结果对于深化金融市场化改革、改善金融服务实体经济效果以及实施经济创新驱动发展战略,具有明确的政策启示。     

Universal Banking Under Bilateral Information Asymmetry

The Gramm–Leach–Bliley (GLB) Act of 1999 repealed many provisions of the Glass–Steagall Act that curtailed competition between banks and commercial firms. Significantly, however, the GLB Act did not repeal the constraint on banks from owning equity in commercial firms (“universal banking”). Should banks be allowed to hold equity in corporate borrowers? If allowed, would banks optimally choose to do so? Despite its relevance from a policy perspective, there are surprisingly few theoretical analyses of this issue of “universal banking”. We develop a model in which the bank's advisory role as an “inside” shareholder hinges on its equity stake. The optimal capital structure and the bank's and entrepreneur's equity stakes are endogenously determined in a world with potential double-sided moral hazard. In certain scenarios, the bank may prefer not to hold any equity. Our analysis indicates that allowing optimal bank equity participation may foster improved corporate performance. This benefit of universal banking should be considered in policy debates.