基于客流需求分析的高速铁路谱系化列车产品设计

铁路谱系化旅客列车产品是服务于多种需求和不同类型旅客,便于旅客辨识、记忆和准确选择,有利于铁路分类配置运输资源和分层提供运输服务,而目前我国铁路谱系化列车产品特征尚不清晰。在分析荷兰、德国和日本铁路谱系化列车产品的基础上,针对我国高速铁路客流按出行目的和节点等级进行需求分析。提出我国高速铁路谱系化列车产品框架设计,最后以京沪高速铁路为例进行车站节点分级、列车谱系划分和分层级的客流结构分析,给出按停站的谱系化列车产品分类设计,为高速铁路谱系化列车产品设计提供研究依据。     

基于可达性的高速铁路列车停站方案优化研究

针对有关列车停站方案与换乘接续研究中的不足,结合高速铁路旅客换乘需求数据,引入可达性定义,首先建立以运行图可达性最大为目标的优化模型,其次提出单亲遗传求解算法,并开发列车运行图自动铺画软件,通过对某高速铁路2011年春运期间运行图的下行列车进行优化,在不改变原运行图骨架、满足运行图标尺的基础上,提高了运行图的可达性和列车平均旅行速度。     

京沪400km/h高速铁路列车竞争力影响探析

新时代人民对于美好生活的需要已经从单一趋向多元,铁路客运需求将呈现多样化、差异化和个性化,对铁路客运产品在速度、价格和服务质量等方面都提出更高的要求。以铁路大提速运输市场份额提升和高速铁路列车客运量增长为切入点,分析列车速度与市场份额、旅客运量之间的关系,剖析高速铁路列车市场竞争力影响,构建Logit离散数学模型。以京沪高速铁路为例,探讨400km/h高速铁路列车运量预测,研究提出400km/h高速铁路列车可以扩大客流吸引范围,增加铁路客运量,提升高速铁路旅客市场竞争力。     

High-speed rail and office location choices. A stated choice experiment for the Netherlands

High-speed rail is seen as a factor contributing to the attractiveness of a location for economic activities. This paper focuses on how the level-of-service characteristics of railway stations, and in particular the presence of high-speed train services, influence the attractiveness of locations for specific types of offices. The results are presented for a stated choice experiment for location choices of offices in the Netherlands. It is concluded that the availability of high-speed train services contributes to the attractiveness of a location for offices. For internationally-oriented offices the areas around stations with international high-speed train services are attractive because of their good international accessibility. We also found an indication that high-speed train services can raise the status of an office site. In the Netherlands, the domestic high-speed train services are less relevant for location choices, because of the small domestic distances. Besides high-speed train services, other location characteristics that determine how well a site is connected to the railway network are also found to be important for location choices. Thereby differences between offices occur, which can partly be explained by the number of trips to/from an office.     

基于时段偏好的高速铁路列车停站方案双层规划方法

旅客出行需求不断提高,需要同时考虑旅客出行时段选择与运输企业效益,来优化调整高速铁路列车停站方案。针对一条拥挤的高速铁路客运走廊,分时段确定列车停站计划和开行频率,阐述影响旅客出行时段偏好的2个重要因素——吸引度与可达度,据此构建旅客出行阻抗函数,构建双层规划模型,上层规划是以运营成本最小为目标的整数规划模型,用于确定列车停站方案;下层规划是一个用户平衡模型,用于计算客流在停站方案上的分配结果。根据模型特点设计启发式算法,并通过算例对模型和算法进行验证和分析。研究表明,考虑旅客出行时段偏好优化高速铁路列车停站方案的方法,能更好地匹配旅客需求分布,为旅客提供优质服务。     

甘肃省高速铁路对城市可达性及经济联系格局影响研究

高速铁路的开通会产生时空压缩效应,使城市之间的平均旅行时间减少,提升城市间经济联系度。借助可达性系数和引力模型,探讨高速铁路开通前后甘肃段城市可达性和经济联系的演变。高速铁路开通后,加权平均旅行时间缩短,甘肃省城市可达性得到提升,形成以兰州-天水-定西为交通中心,沿高速铁路为轴线对外辐射的空间格局趋势;城市之间的经济联系强度大幅度增强,城市间经济联系差异扩大;内部经济联系极化效应加剧,非高速铁路区存在形成交通和经济双重洼地的风险,可达性和经济联系度呈现部分空间耦合。     

Reevaluation of Japanese high-speed rail construction: Recent situation of the north corridor Shinkansen and its way to completion

Since the inauguration of the first “Shinkansen” high-speed railway line in Japan—the Tokaido Shinkansen—in 1964, Japan's high-speed railway lines have been a great success. On the other side of the coin, however, Japan's second phase of constructing high-speed lines, which was first planned in 1973, has made little progress over many years. It is thus interesting to consider why such a contrast between the former success and latter stagnation of Shinkansen construction has come about. While the competitiveness of high-speed railways has been reevaluated, and as various countries around the world introduce high-speed rail lines, this matter has become one of great interest. In our current research, first, it is shown that under an environment that has become surrounded by railways in Japan over recent years, these high-speed rail lines—which in Japan in the past have been called unnecessary public work projects—in fact have a significant competitive edge over other projects. As one of these lines, the Hokuriku Shinkansen, which links Tokyo and Osaka via a northern route from Tokyo that passes through the Hokuriku region, is taken up by this study and reevaluated. In doing so, considering that the reason for not precisely evaluating this line is the fact that the layout of the 100 km section of line near Osaka is not yet determined, the authors present and compare several routes for this section. As regards the evaluation of these routes, several distinctive ideas-such as routes utilizing part of the Tokaido Shinkansen line and using gauge-changeable trains are incorporated. As well as performing a detailed cost-benefit analysis, this study investigates all conceivable technical problems concerning the line. Furthermore, in the event of further increasing train speed, it is clearly shown that passenger flow through the central region of Japan will change significantly, thus generating significant demand and increasing user benefits.By precisely evaluating a high-speed railway line, this analysis has revealed the prospect of introducing such a line. Moreover, by presenting the finding of Japan—which has accumulated an extensive knowledge of high-speed railway lines—it will contribute to the evaluation of the high-speed railway lines being considered under the key transport policies of many countries around the world.     

The value and effects of introducing high standard train and bus concepts in Blekinge, Sweden

A set of improvements were introduced on a railway line in the south of Sweden in January 1992, including a new train concept, improved timetable and lower fares. The new train replaced a combination of old rail cars and standard coaches (bus). Furthermore, 18 months later, a new high comfort coach (bus) service was introduced as a complement to the train timetable to increase the number of departures. Forecasts from a national four-step model system, based on Revealed Preference data, which did not cover explanatory factors like mode concept, comfort, mode image, was made and compared with a forecast based on stated preference data choice model. Both type of forecasts were compared to travel statistics. Stated Preference data have been collected from car drivers, coach and train passengers. The set of improvements have been included in the SP alternatives presented to the subjects. A structured logit model, a regression model and a linear programming model are compared. Unstructured and structured logit models are compared. Logit models have been estimated and used to form a mode choice model which predicts the changes in market shares between the train and car. The choice model forecast coincide, accidentally, with actual demand 8–9 months after the introduction of the set of improvements (a 40% increase in journeys). The set of improvements, including the new train service, has proven to be a success with more than 100% increase in travel after only two years of operation. Differences in estimated logit models for 1991 and 1992 are explained as partly due to asymmetry effects and partly to shortcomings in the SP data collection technique. Logit model estimates for train and coach are compared. The value of high standard coach service, running in parallel to the train, is estimated. The new coach gained few new passengers and also a much lower monetary value than the train by both train and bus passengers.     

基于模态识别的高速铁路列车票额预分优化研究

票额预分是高速铁路列车票额现代化管理的重要技术手段,为客运组织实现挖潜提效、精细化管理起到关键作用,但长期存在过度裂解或过度保护的问题,导致高速铁路列车区段运输能力存在虚糜现象。通过分析高速铁路列车票额预分现状,从接续预分、模态内聚预分和复合模态预分顺序优化等方面,构建基于客流模态识别的高速铁路列车票额预分优化模型,以北京西—成都东的G571次高速铁路列车票额预分为例,研究结果表明基于模态识别的高速铁路列车票额预分能够更好地实现存量票额在始发站和沿途站的科学预分,有效提升高速铁路列车客座率和收入水平。     

A rolling horizon approach to the high speed train rescheduling problem in case of a partial segment blockage

This paper reschedules train services on a double-track high speed railway in a disrupted situation, where one track of a segment is temporarily unavailable. We have to decide the sequence of train services passing through the blocked segment, the arrival and departure time of each train service at each station, and the canceled train services. Three practical train rescheduling strategies are explicitly compared and formulated by three MILP models. The uncertain duration of the disruption is handled. A rolling horizon approach is applied to solve our models. The models are tested on a real-world instance of the Beijing-Shanghai high speed railway.     

城际铁路列车停站方案的遗传算法求解

我国城市群快速发展,城市间人员交流密切频繁,城际铁路成为城际间旅客的重要出行方式。合理的城际铁路列车停站方案可以提高城际铁路的竞争力,提升城际铁路的分担率。分析停站方案相关的运营收益和旅客出行成本,以铁路运营收益最大和旅客出行成本最小为目标函数,以车站服务频率、设备能力、列车停站次数等作为约束条件,建立城际铁路列车停站方案的多目标混合0-1规划模型,运用理想点法和遗传算法求解。算例结果表明,该模型和算法可以优化得到铁路运营收益和旅客出行成本均较优的停站方案。     

基于耦合效应的高速铁路安全体系研究

根据高速铁路的行车特点论述其存在的安全问题。从人、列车、轨道及行车环境之间的耦合效应分析高速铁路行车安全系统要素,将机车乘务员的作业能力与作业要求两种因素作用下造成的行车事故隐患分为8种类型。并初步构建我国高速铁路的行车事故预防体系、行车安全保障体系和行车事故救援体系。     

德国柏林中央客运站铁路车场设置及作业方式研究

德国柏林中央客运站集高速铁路、普速铁路、城市快轨和地铁于一体,日接发列车1300多列,是欧洲铁路网中重要的客运枢纽。柏林铁路枢纽的东西线和南北线在该站交汇,东西线方向设有2个独立的铁路车场,南北线方向设有1个共用的铁路车场,3个铁路车场均为贯通式布置。为提高车站接发车能力,该站主要办理通过列车,兼有部分始发终到列车。每个车场设置各有特点,列车作业组织紧凑有序,到发线利用率高。柏林站车场设置及作业方式可以作为大型铁路枢纽车站设计与作业组织的典型案例。     

A multimodal approach to assessing accessibility of a high-speed railway station

In China, accessibility has been profoundly improved by the large-scale construction and operation of high-speed rail (HSR), with far-reaching implications for population flows and socioeconomic development. As a novel attempt to compare the shortest travel times, accessible regions, service populations, and population potential of one- to four-hour isochrones under four scenarios in Tanggu Railway Station (i.e., base scenario, hypothetical scenario 1, hypothetical scenario 2, and actual scenario), this paper analyses three factors' influences on and contributions to accessibility change: the advent of HSR, conventional railway route adjustment, and road network improvement. The results indicate that station accessibility significantly improved from 2007 to 2012. HSR has not only brought a time-space contraction effect to the region from the station to the north-western area but also strengthened interactions among different regions. Due to the reduction of some conventional railway routes, the shortest travel times from the station to the north-eastern areas have slightly increased. Although this factor has some negative effects, it has not affected the ascending trend of enhanced accessibility. Road network improvement is identified as a key factor with balanced impacts on all four-hour isochrones. The results of this study generate supportive information for the planning and construction of HSR stations and networks and provide references for comprehensive transport policymaking.     

高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线运输需求分析

高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线运输需求是确定其建设方案、投融资模式、主要技术标准、运输组织和运营管理方案的决策依据,更是确定铁路经济效益和修建可行性的关键指标。通过对旅客运输径路比较分析,结合区域路网构成确定高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线可能的功能定位,包括"城际功能为主"、"城际、通道功能并重"和"通道功能为主"3种情景。再基于"情景分析"的基本原理,利用"四阶段法"预测高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线处于3种不同情景下的运输需求,即远期客流密度分别为805万人/a、1426万人/a和1852万人/a。     

Airport competition - Regional airports losing ground to main airports

Regional airports in Norway are losing market shares to nearby main airports on flights to the national capital, Oslo, and on international travel via Oslo. Travellers are willing to spend several hours extra driving to a larger airport in order to take advantage of lower fares and more convenient airline services. Traffic leakage from regional airports is high when the service from the regional airport is indirect and fare differences are large. Public service obligation tenders (PSO) set maximum fares on the regional legs, but do not cover through travel from regional airports which involve commercial legs. Traffic leakage is particularly evident in the leisure segment. Leakage levels tend to increase as competition is intensified at main airports, but the evidence is rather mixed. Logistic curves of airport market shares have proven to be useful when comparing spatial variations in leakage levels.     

Railway trip speeds and areal coverage. The emperor’s new clothes of effectivity?

Europe’s railways have experienced a general decline in the second half of the 20th century and a renaissance since the 1980s. Total network length has decreased fundamentally while high-speed rail (HSR) line construction has soared since then. Accordingly HSR has stipulated a lot of research, but only recently HSR’s impacts on settlement structure and transport regimes have been studied in depth. We embrace a passenger’s point of view and utilize a generalized overview model for illustrating the trade-offs between trip speeds of complete trip chains, access/egress legs and mainline trip lengths. In order to estimate input parameters, an overview of railway network and settlement structure of Austria is empirically derived. In four scenarios, we vary these input parameters to study the impact of timetable integration, speed upgrades on mainlines and access/egress modes on trip speed in the Austrian case. Our results show that travel speed advantages of mainline speed increases are quickly countervailed by access/egress improvements or timetable integration improvements. We conclude that finding harmonized optimum speeds, introducing clock-face timetable design and improving access/egress modes are promising strategies in comparison to unscrutinized further maximization of mainline travel speed levels at the expense of feeder/distributor lines quality.     

京沪高速铁路列车运行模式研究

基于运行图数据,研究京沪高速铁路不同运营时期的运输组织模式,分析不同速度列车共线模式下京沪高速铁路的运能结构变化,探讨高速铁路列车运行模式发展趋势。在分析本线全程列车始发时段与停站次数的关系,研究本线列车开行的周期规律。结果表明,2018年底京沪高速铁路区段通过能力利用存在较大的不均衡性,能力限制区间为徐州东-蚌埠南;分析列车运行模式存在的问题,提出"区域路网直达+跨区域换乘"的运行模式是高速铁路列车运行模式的发展方向。     

客运专线中间站合理站间距的探讨

在对铁路客运专线通过能力进行计算分析的基础上,考虑开行不同速度目标值的A、B类列车条件下,按不同开行方案和站间距离,在给定B类列车开行数量的前提下,分别研究各种站间距离对应的A类列车最大可能开行对数,并检算B类列车的旅速。通过实例分析,说明客运专线的站间距离、开行方案、旅速和开行能力的配比关系。     

京津城际高速铁路对区域经济影响定量分析

建立高速铁路对区域经济发展影响的分析指标体系,采用灰色预测和多元线性回归模型测算出2008年、2009年＂无＂京津城际铁路情况下京津地区的相关经济数值,基于＂有无对比原则＂分析京津城际高速铁路对京津两地的区域经济贡献。