Technical change in U.S. industries

We use the normalized quadratic cost function, introduced by Diewert and Wales (1987), to measure and analyze the rate and biases of technical change at the sectoral level in eleven major U.S. industries — manufacturing, construction, mining, agriculture, finance, health, wholesale, transportation, education, hospitality, and utilities — using annual KLEM (capital, labor, energy, and intermediate materials) data from the World KLEMS database, over the period from 1947 to 2010. We extend the work in Feng and Serletis (2008), by taking a new approach to econometric modeling, merging the econometric approach to productivity measurement with recent state-of-the-art advances in financial econometrics. In particular, we relax the homoskedasticity assumption and instead assume that the covariance matrix of the errors of the flexible interrelated factor demand systems is time-varying. We also pay explicit attention to theoretical regularity, treating the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis, thus achieving superior modeling in the context of a parametric nonlinear factor demand system that captures certain important features of the data.     

The supply-of-immigrants function and taxation of immigrant's incomes: An econometric analysis

This paper considers the derivation of the commonly estimated macro supply-of-migrants equation from a discrete choice-of-location theory, in which tastes are stochastic. This approach highlights a number of economic and econometric problems inherent in popular forms of this equation. A logit specification of the supply function of U.S. immigrants is presented, using aggregated data on applications for labor certificates rather than observed movements. A modest simulation then follows, reporting the sensitivity of migration flows, hours worked by immigrants, and tax revenues, under alternative rates of Bhagwati's proposed tax on U.S. immigrant's incomes.     

Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

ABSTRACT

Three major concerns drove the U.S. into initiating the trade war, and they are (a) the concern that China’s chronically large trade surplus was depressing job creation in the U.S. (b) the concern that China was using illegal and unfair methods to acquire U.S. technology at an effectively discounted price; and (c) the concern that China seeks to weaken U.S. national security and its international standing. On the dispute over China’s exchange rate and trade imbalance, the first conclusion is that it was marked by analytical confusion over the meaning of the term ‘equilibrium exchange rate’. The second conclusion is that China’s trade imbalance reflects the economic conditions in both China and U.S., and that the efficient and fair solution of the problem requires policy changes in both countries. On the industrial policy dispute, the first conclusion is that the issue of forced technology transfer is largely a dispute about China using its market power to benefit itself at the expense of its trade partners. The second conclusion is that China’s use of market power can last only until the other large countries could unite and retaliate as a group. The inevitability of retaliation means that China should replace the joint-venture (JV) mechanism for technological diffusion with other ways to strengthen its technological capability. On the U.S. concern about whether China trade weakens its national security, the first conclusion is that the notion of national security that is commonly adopted in the U.S. trade policy debate is ignorant about the primary determinants of U.S. capability in innovation. By focusing instead mainly on how to hold down China technologically, the long-run outcome will be a technologically weaker U.S. and hence, a more vulnerable U.S. The second conclusion is that the U.S. must identify a clear, short list of critical technologies and critical infrastructure for the recently reformed Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to cover, and update this list constantly. Otherwise, the broad and changing nature of notions about national security would allow the bureaucratically driven phenomenon of mission-creep to steadily expand the coverage of the CFIUS process, thereby steadily rendering CFIUS to be operationally capricious. Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978 (e.g. many parts of China now look like Singapore and China is Africa’s biggest donor), there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite China’s status as a developing economy under WTO rules. Our principal policy suggestion to President Trump is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game. While fair economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short run, it generally creates a win-win outcome in the long run.     

Information content of U.S. treasury inflation-indexed bonds

U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are designed to provide a stable real return before taxes. A comparison between these bonds and conventional bonds reveals that the effective real yield of U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is attractive. The econometric results suggest, however, that the real rate provided by U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is not independent of inflation, implying that the Fisher hypothesis is contradicted by the data. An implication of negative correlation between the real rate and inflation is that the time to buy U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds is when inflation is low. While the yields on U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds are shown to reflect inflation by a lag of about one month, nominal interest rates do not fully adjust to inflation. The author would like to thank Richard A. Cohn and Mahmoud Wahab for their advice and comments.     

Substitution Possibility between Unpriced Pulp and Wastepaper in the U.S. Paper and Paperboard Industry

A greater use of recycled wastepaper would preserve virgin forests as well as reducing the amount of wastepaper going to landfills. These environmental goals depend critically on the elasticity of substitution between pulp and wastepaper in producing paper and paperboard. Since most of the pulp consumed by U.S. paper mills and paperboard mills is transferred internally from vertically integrated pulp mills, the price data on pulp is not available. This paper constructs an econometric model which enables us to estimate the substitution possibility between unpriced pulp and wastepaper in the U.S. paper and paperboard industry. Empirical results show that the elasticity of substitution between unpriced pulp and wastepaper is positive, but not statistically significant.     

DOES APPRECIATION OF THE RENMINBI DECREASE IMPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES FROM CHINA?

In 2005, China abated its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and began to appreciate the Renminbi (RMB). In this paper, I explore the effect of the appreciation of the RMB on imports to the United States from China by augmenting the gravity model with the exchange rate. Using an industrial panel data set during the period 2002–2008 and controlling for the endogeneity of the bilateral exchange rate, this extensive empirical analysis suggests that the appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar significantly reduced imports to the United States from China. This finding is robust to a variety of econometric methods and to coverage in different periods. (JEL F1, F2)     

Dividend Variability and Stock Market Swings

This paper examines the extent to which swings in stock prices can be related to variations in the discounted value of expected future dividends when investors face uncertainty about their future behaviour. I develop an econometric model that accounts for the instability of U.S. dividend growth and discount rates during the past 120 years. Estimates of the model reveal that changing forecasts of future dividend growth account for more than 90% of the predictable variations in dividend-prices. The estimates also imply that instability in the dividend and discount rate processes contribute significantly to the predictability of long-horizon stock returns.     

Consumer demand for meat and the evaluation of agricultural policy

This study utilizes an econometric model of equilibrium in the U.S. livestock and feedgrain markets to investigate a number of questions of economic methodology and policy. Both nonlinear consumer demand equations that obey the constraints of neoclassical demand theory and a model of supply are used. This approach allows for the measurement of the effects on consumer welfare of actual government policies. In particular, the model is employed to analyze the welfare effects of an actual policy situation — the sale of U.S. grain to the Soviet Union in the third quarter of 1972.     

Towards a More Complete Efficiency Wage Theory

The efficiency wage is an important topic in the theory of employment. In a traditional efficiency wage model, only the representative firm is optimizing against an assumed S‐shaped effort supply function. This S‐shaped supply curve is critical for the model and the absence of a derivation of the curve in the literature means that it is an incomplete theory. In the present paper, we extend the model by specifying a worker's representative utility function so that the corresponding argmax function will be the S‐shaped effort supply curve. This will make the worker's decision process endogenous and will produce a more complete model. The importance of this extension is clear. The characterization of the utility function will make explicit the necessary conditions and crucial assumptions of the traditional model. More importantly, the extension will allow researchers to introduce employment compensation factors into the worker's utility function for analysis. This has important bearings on future development in employment theory. For example, a worker's satisfaction from shirking (net of dismissal risks), or his or her willingness to search for jobs (net of search cost), can now be included in his or her utility function to form an optimal work or search strategy. Incorporating the worker's optimization behaviour into the model will also enable researchers to study policy directed not just towards firms but also towards the worker's decision process. Furthermore, this approach provides a framework for researchers to generate comparative statics. These comparative statics can lead to interesting topics for econometric models or to further research within this field.     

Variable output elasticities and technique-specific technical progress: A method of measurement

The possibility of accounting for technique specific technical progress in an econometric production function is raised. In addition the validity of the assumption of constant output elasticities over input combinations is questionned and tested using aggregate U.S. industrial data. There appears to be considerable variation in output elasticities over different techniques of production.     

U.S. OIL DEMAND AND CONSERVATION

Recent history has lent casual support to three popular theories about U.S. oil demand: (i) U.S. oil consumption is very insensitive to changing oil prices, (ii) non-price conservation has reduced U.S. oil demand, and (Hi) U.S. oil consumption falls more when oil prices rise than it rises when oil prices fall. Together, these theories suggest that one could hold oil consumption constant without much economic sacrifice. The authors' econometric evidence does not support these theories. This evidence indicates that U.S. oil consumption is fairly responsive to price changes over the long run, but with a considerable lag. Sharp oil price increases—or an equivalent policy action—would be needed to hold oil consumption constant during the 1990s.     

Estimating the geographic diffusion of the videocassette recorder market

The majority of studies concerning diffusion or product growth of consumer durables have treated the U.S. market as a whole and have applied the diffusion model on the assumption that the market exhibits a homogeneous response in its diffusion process. If the market is heterogeneous, however, an aggregate model entails a misspecification problem which could adversely affect the applicability and efficiency of the model. A modeling framework is developed for analyzing the diffusion process in a possibly heterogeneous market. Empirical analysis using data on the videocassette recorder (VCR) market reveals that the modeling framework captures to a fair extent heterogeneous diffusion processes across different regions in the U.S. market. Managerial implications are derived and discussed.     

显性比较优势:中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒吗?

显性比较优势是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒吗?文章基于美国对中国反倾销97起涉案产品样本,并引入非涉案395种10分位主要贸易品扩展样本,研究表明:(1)美国对中国产品反倾销当年主要集中在中国对美出口具有较强显性比较优势的涉案产品上;虽然遭受美国反倾销,但中国在35起涉案产品对美出口上仍保持着较强的显性比较优势,不过有27起涉案产品已丧失较强的显性优势。(2)扩展样本后各影响因素对美国对中国产品反倾销概率的影响程度减少,避免了样本选择的有偏性。相比来看,美国对中国产品j贸易逆差是美国ITC裁决行业损害、签发反倾销指令的最重要决定因素,是美国对中国产品反倾销的直接诱因。而显性比较优势只是影响因素之一,并不是中国产品遭受美国反倾销的魔咒。美国工业生产增长率下滑、失业率上升是其他影响因素,并且次贷危机也是重要影响因素。     

Scale and efficiency measurement using a semiparametric stochastic frontier model: evidence from the U.S. commercial banks

In this paper, we use the local maximum likelihood (LML) method proposed by Kumbhakar et al. (J Econom, 2007) to estimate stochastic cost frontier models for a sample of 3,691 U.S. commercial banks. This method relaxes several deficiencies in the econometric estimation of frontier functions. In particular, we relax the assumption that all banks share the same production technology and provide bank-specific measures of returns to scale and cost inefficiency. The LML method is applied to estimate the cost frontiers in which a truncated normal distribution is used to model technical inefficiency. This formulation allows the cost frontier, inefficiency effects and heteroskedasticity in both noise and inefficiency components to be quite flexible.      

Appreciating depreciation: physical capital depreciation in a developing country

Little is known about the nature of physical capital in the less-developed countries. This article addresses the lack of empirical study related to depreciation rates, which are a neglected but important ingredient of both micro and macro models and empirical analyses. Based on rich establishment-level survey data, and using a straightforward econometric approach, I estimate depreciation rates of physical capital invested in manufacturing enterprises in Indonesia. I estimate the depreciation rate to be between 8 and 14 %. These numbers compare roughly to published estimates for the U.S. I then investigate hypotheses related to heterogeneity of depreciation rates across different types of firms. Finally, I test the hypothesis that financially constrained firms use less durable investment goods.     

直接投资引致的美中贸易逆差:经验研究

运用基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验模型,在商品分类层面研究关中贸易逆差与关国对华直接投资的内在联系。结果显示：从长期和短期来看,中国制成品的出口都是关中贸易逆差的“因”,中国制成品的出口与关国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,因此关国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美中贸易逆差就越大;美中贸易逆差是结构性的,它不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。     

Diffusion of steam-powered firefighting equipment in the United States: innovation adoption at the municipal level

To date, econometrics-based diffusion studies have focused almost exclusively on the timing of adoption of new technology by firms and individuals. While there are detailed case studies on the evolution of firefighting for some of the largest U.S. cities in the nineteenth century, ours is the first formal econometric diffusion study of the timing of adoption of steam-powered, firefighting engines, whose first adoption was an important initial step in the evolution from independent volunteer fire departments to centralized control at the municipal level. We find evidence that the amount of manufacturing capital at risk of fire loss played a crucial role in influencing the timing of initial adoptions of this technology. This is consistent with the argument that increased industrialization in large cities was conducive to the growth in capital-intensive firefighting and centralized control of fire departments in urban America during this period.     

中国工业在区域上的重新定位和聚集

本文用第二、三次工业普查的数据考查中国工业在区域上的集中程度。研究发现 :至 1 995年 ,中国的许多制造业都高度集中在几个沿海省份。同时 ,对 1 980、1 985和 1 995年行业集中度的比较表明 :自改革以来 ,中国制造业在地域上变得更为集中了。进一步的计量分析支持新经济地理理论 ,并显示在 1 993— 1 994年中国工业依然位于倒U曲线的左方。也就是说 ,交易和运输费用的进一步下降可能会促进制造业在地域上进一步聚集     

美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析

针对美中贸易收支与人民币汇率问题,经研究发现,汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的,仅仅依靠人民币汇率变动是无法解决美中贸易逆差问题的。1994—2002年年度数据实证显示,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率(名义或实际汇率)之间没有稳定的关系;1998—2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。因此,“人民币升值论”或许更多的是基于政治而非经济因素,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。     

Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometricmodel in the presence of structural change of an evolutionarytype. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn fromthe self-organisation approach and operationalised in the contextof the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmentedto allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusionrate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmentedlogistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods.An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and declineof Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of thisexample, it is shown how the approach could be of use to botheconomic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structuralchange where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.