中国环境规制对碳排放影响的空间异质性分析

基于1997—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,将环境规制分成命令型、市场型和自愿型三类,以核密度估计分析碳排放分布的动态变化,采用空间杜宾模型探究了不同环境规制对碳排放影响的空间异质性。结果表明:1997—2017年中国三种环境规制与碳排放量变化表现同步增长,碳排放区域差异明显,命令型环境规制占据主体,市场型环境规制波动性变化特征明显,自愿型环境规制稳步增长;碳排放和环境规制具有明显的空间自相关特征,并且环境规制对邻近地区碳排放减少或增长的影响能力增强;三种环境规制对碳排放的影响均存在空间溢出,相比较而言,市场型环境规制的正向溢出效应最为明显,不同环境规制影响的区域差异特征表现为:命令型环境规制"东部>中部>西部",市场型环境规制"东部>西部>中部",自愿型环境规制"西部>东部>中部"。     

Valuing Air Quality in Indonesia Using Households’ Locational Choices

Air quality is already at unprecedented levels in many developing countries and is projected to worsen up until 2050. At the same time, despite the known adverse impacts of air pollution, questions remain of willingness-to-pay for cleaner air as existing studies are scarce and have several endogeneity concerns. To address this knowledge gap, I apply a locational equilibrium model to data from Indonesia. This model exploits migration patterns induced by spatial variation in air quality, wages, and cost-of-living to value air quality. I control for (a) migration distance and religious preferences, and (b) endogeneity of air pollution using a wind- and distance-based fire hotspots instrument. My estimates of MWTP of \(\hbox {PM}_{2.5}\) are higher than results from hedonic property models. I also consider heterogeneous MWTP and show that households with children and higher education level have larger valuation for clean air. In sum, this paper demonstrates a potentially novel and rigorous tool to value air quality improvements in developing countries and is an important first step to help policymakers evaluate policies to contain this growing problem.     

Health Impacts of Invasive Species Through an Altered Natural Environment: Assessing Air Pollution Sinks as a Causal Pathway

In this paper, we study whether the release of pollutant emission information has an effect on housing prices. The event under study is the publication of the first wave of emission quantity data from the European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register in 2009. Our analysis is based on quarterly housing prices at the German postal code level for the years 2007–2011 and provides the first evidence from Europe on this research question. Estimating a differences-in-differences model and controlling for observable differences in land use, housing type distribution, tax revenues and other postal code area characteristics by means of propensity score matching, we find no significant effect of the release of emission information on the value of houses in affected postal code areas. This result survives a number of robustness checks designed to assess whether our findings are due to data aggregation issues or the actual treatment definition. This leads to the conclusion that on an aggregate level the 2009 publication of E-PRTR data did not have an immediate and noticeable effect on housing prices in Germany.     

Does clean air matter in developing countries' megacities? A hedonic price analysis of the Jakarta housing market, Indonesia

Despite numerous hedonic studies on the value of clean air in developed countries, the lack of similar studies in less developed countries has raised the question as to whether clean air also matters in developing countries' megacities. As an attempt to fill this gap, we apply a hedonic property value analysis, the method commonly used to infer the value of clean air in developed countries, using the combination of data on housing rental prices and their characteristics from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, and data of the ambient level of six different pollutants in Jakarta, Indonesia. The result indicates that, in the cases of lead, total hydro carbon (THC), and SO₂, air pollutants have a negative association with property value; i.e., housing rental price. The relationship is at 5% level of significance for lead and 10% level for THC and SO₂. This paper estimates that per family value of clean air in Jakarta ranges from US$28 to US$85 per μg/m³.     

大气环境资源的时空异质性及其经济含义

大气污染的治理不仅要考虑污染物排放量控制与污染损失减少的关系,还应该考虑污染物排放的时间和空间效应。本文首先从污染物排放和大气自然净化能力的平衡角度建立模型,描述了大气环境的污染和净化过程,揭示了大气环境资源的时空异质性、经济学概念及政策含义。然后从中国大气环境资源利用角度进行实证分析,以中国省会城市和50个样本城市的相关数据为例,发现大气环境资源时空异质性确实存在。最后提出有针对性的优化大气污染控制政策的方法和思路,包括污染物排放的空间转移策略和错峰排放机制。     

Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability in the EU

In this paper we study the relationship of fiscal policy and economicperformance of some core countries in the EU. Our aim is to find outwhether public deficit and public debt have consequences for real variables in the economies we consider. The background of our empirical study is a growth model that provides us with some predictions on the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. In a first step we then use Granger causality tests to analyze empirically whether some of the implications of our model arecompatible with the data. In a second step, we investigate whether the fiscalpolicies of the member states have been sustainable. Given this information,we then pursue the question of whether differences in the fiscal positions ofcountries have consequences as concerns the outcome of our empirical testsof step one. Finally, we study whether the impact of the public deficit ratiodepends on the magnitude of the debt ratio.     

长三角城市群的经济集聚、技术进步与碳排放强度——基于空间计量和中介效应的实证研究

以长三角26个城市的面板数据为样本,运用空间计量模型研究经济集聚对碳排放强度的影响,并采用中介效应模型检验技术进步能否作为经济集聚影响碳排放强度的中介变量,稳健性检验保证结果可靠性。结果表明:(1)长三角地区的碳排放强度具有显著的空间正向溢出效应,经济集聚与碳排放强度之间呈显著的倒“U”型曲线关系。(2)长三角城市群的技术水平能在地区之间相互溢出,经济集聚可以促进技术进步。(3)经济集聚不仅对碳排放强度产生先促进后抑制的直接影响,又能通过技术进步对碳排放强度发挥间接的抑制效应,技术进步具有显著的中介效应。     

中国产业结构调整的碳排放效应——基于STIRPAT扩展模型及空间面板数据的实证研究

利用1997—2010年我国省际面板数据,基于STIRPAT的扩展形式,运用空间面板模型实证分析了我国产业结构调整的碳排放效应。与以往研究不同的是,将空间自相关性纳入传统模型中,并且未采用简单的三次产业划分法描述产业结构,而是将生产部门细分为五类行业。结果表明:我国各省区的二氧化碳排放量存在空间维度上的依赖性和异质性,产业结构高级化进程受经济规律和发展实际的限制,这影响了减排效果的发挥;农业机械化的发展步伐不断加快,但工业发展的高能耗、高污染特征仍非常明显,农业和工业增加值占GDP比重分别与二氧化碳排放量显著正相关,其他行业比重调整的降碳作用有待更充分的激发。指出:我国应推进农业机械化与产业结构战略性调整相结合,促进以技术创新与进步为基础的产业内部结构升级;各区域要力求与周边地区协调、互助,共建以低碳排放为特征的产业体系。     

环境规制下全要素生产率逆转拐点的空间效应*——基于省际工业面板数据的验证

工业是污染排放和能源消耗的主体,环境全要素生产率受环境规制影响,进而对工业的可持续增长有一定制约。本文采用2001-2012年中国各省份（西藏除外）工业行业的面板数据,基于Malmquist Luenberger生产率指数,在考虑环境污染的情况下测算了我国各地区工业行业的环境全要素生产率,避免了全要素生产率高估的问题;并构建空间计量模型,考虑空间相关性和异质性的影响,在控制了资本劳动投入比、地区经济发展水平、企业规模、所有制结构、外资结构等变量因素影响的基础上,实证检验了环境规制与全要素生产率的关系。实证结果表明：东部、中部和西部三大区域环境规制的强度和工业行业的环境全要素生产率之间呈现“U”型关系。随着环境规制强度不断增强,全要素生产率先降后升,而且东部地区要早于中部、西部地区达到拐点。在达到拐点以后,东部地区的全要素生产率对环境规制变动的反应要强于中、西部地区,东部地区的边际全要素生产率更高。     

Technology adoption decisions under a mixed regulatory system of tradable permits and air pollution fees for the control of Total Suspended Particulates in Taiwan

By using a newly proposed tradable permit system built under the current air pollution fee regulation for the control of Total Suspended Particulates in Taiwan as an example, a mixed-integer non-linear programming model that minimizes the total regulatory costs of firms is applied to investigate how different permit trading ratios and the design of banking might affect firms’ technology adoption decisions and permit trading behavior. By incorporating binary variables in the model to represent firms’ decisions as to whether or not to install new control equipment, the results show that when the unit air pollution fee rate is higher than the firms’ abatement costs, the design of banking causes many firms to install new control equipment that results in an over-reduction of emissions. If no air pollution fee is imposed, the trading ratio plays a more important role than the reservation rate for banking in determining the firms’ emission reduction strategies under a pure permit trading scheme. While the conclusion from this study that uses a non-uniformly mixed pollutant as an example may hold only when certain conditions are met, the framework can be applied to other uniformly mixed pollutants through parameter changes without any limitation. In addition, the modeling technique presented here offers policy-makers a very convenient approach to empirical analysis.      

“Cleansing the air at the expense of waterways?” Empirical evidence from the toxic releases of coal-fired power plants in the United States

Environmental policies in the United States have primarily taken the form of media-specific regulations that emphasize end-of-pipe pollution control. This can lead to the shifting of pollution across environmental media, thereby having the potential to solve one environmental problem by creating a new problem. This study uses data from 228 coal-fired power plants that report to the Toxics Release Inventory to conduct an empirical examination of the extent to which media-specific regulation has caused power plants to shift their toxic air releases to waterways, land, or transfers for offsite recycling facilities. Controlling for plant-level fixed effects, scale of production, and environmental inspections and enforcement under air regulation, this study finds that adopting tougher air pollution regulation that designates counties as being in nonattainment status with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards significantly increased toxic releases to waterways and land.     

Life satisfaction and air quality in London

A growing body of research in economics concerns self-reported happiness, or life satisfaction (LS), and its relationship to a wide range of other variables. The findings of this research tend to highlight the importance of non-income aspects of individuals' life conditions.These findings are strongly complementary to themes within the sustainable development discourse. Firstly, they suggest ways in which we might consume less without compromising on our current levels of LS. And secondly, they help demonstrate the immediate LS benefits that could be gained from higher levels of environmental quality (EQ). However, the empirical evidence for the link between EQ and LS is, to date, somewhat weak, due in part to a lack of EQ data at a level of detail to match the individual-by-individual resolution of LS measures.This small, exploratory study therefore seeks to assess how the use of EQ data at very high spatial resolution could advance the empirical literature examining connections between LS and EQ levels, focusing on air quality in particular. It collects original survey data for approximately 400 Londoners, and uses geographical information system (GIS) software to calculate pollutant concentrations in the immediate vicinity of their homes. It uses this data to estimate maximum likelihood regression models explaining LS ratings in terms of a range of individual, household and local variables.Both perceived and measured air pollution levels are significantly negatively associated with the LS of the survey respondents, even when controlling for a wide range of other effects. An increase of 10 μg/m³ in annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentration appears to correspond on average to a drop of nearly half a point of LS on an 11-point rating scale.These findings cannot yet be generalised with confidence. However, if they were confirmed by larger future studies, they would appear to strengthen and extend existing arguments in favour of policies to reduce urban air pollution, framed both in terms of conventional economic efficiency analyses, and in wider political and ethical (and potentially legal) terms.     

FDI对中国二氧化碳排放的影响——基于省域面板数据的空间计量

采用空间计量方法,利用1998—2010年中国省域面板数据,研究中国省域FDI与CO2排放量的关系。研究结果表明:中国省域FDI和CO2排放量都存在显著的空间自相关性;FDI高值集聚区一般是中国CO2排放量低值集聚区,FDI低值集聚区一般是中国CO2排放量高值集聚区。采用空间误差模型和空间滞后模型研究FDI对中国CO2排放量的影响。结果显示:FDI在地理上的集聚有助于降低中国的CO2排放量,"污染天堂假说"在中国并不成立。最后,基于实证结果提出了相关的政策建议。     

Livestock emissions regulation with unknown damages and strategic technology adoption

Livestock emissions have been identified as a contributor to greenhouse gas build-up yet have remained unregulated in the US. A game-theoretic model in the style of Tarui and Polasky (2005) was analysed where the dairy industry strategically chooses to abate air emissions with technology adoption and herd size decisions while a regulator chooses a tax rate on emissions to satisfy the desires of competing interest groups. This model allows the effects of potential air emission regulation on the dairy industry to be evaluated. Results demonstrate that dairy farms react to the increased cost of air regulation by decreasing herd size rather than investing in air emission abatement technology in the short run. This suggests that incentives may need to be put in place to induce adoption in emissions abatement technology at the livestock level in the long run.     

Does Financial Depth Improve Aggregate Savings Performance? Further Cross‐Country Evidence

The paper examines whether financial depth can encourage savings. The main issue concerns how best to measure financial depth. A variety of proxies have been used in the past, mostly in the form of financial intermediation ratios (FIRs). A second issue concerns specification. Misspecification in earlier work may have overstated the importance of financial depth. A final issue concerns the effect of outliers, which are dealt with using robust estimation techniques. Based on a broadly specified lifecycle regression model and data from 122 countries, it is concluded that, although financial depth has a positive influence on savings, its strength continues to be open to question. Only one FIR and a non-FIR proxy (bank offices per person) are unambiguously significant. These results suggest that further work could be fruitful, especially if directed toward improving the accuracy and consistency of existing FIR data.     

科技创新、产业结构升级与碳排放的传导效应 ——基于半参数空间面板VAR模型

为了实现碳减排目标和碳中和愿景,在中国30个省市的面板数据基础上,构建半参数空间面板向量自回归模型（SSPVAR）,利用脉冲响应函数和导数散点图实证分析了科技创新、产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化、碳排放之间的双向空间传导效应,以及环境规制的非线性影响。结果表明：（1）科技创新、产业结构升级和碳排放之间存在时间滞后效应和空间传递效应。科技创新和碳排放存在显著的正向自强化效应和正向空间溢出效应,而产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化存在负向空间溢出效应。（2）科技创新促进本地和邻地产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化,但是产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化均对本地和邻地的科技创新产生不同程度的时间滞后性的抑制作用。（3）科技创新减少本地二氧化碳排放,但不利于邻地的碳减排;产业结构合理化和产业结构高级化有利于邻地碳减排,但增加了本地的二氧化碳排放,且产业结构高级化的碳减排效应比产业结构合理化更显著。（4）环境规制对科技创新、产业结构升级、碳排放都存在显著的非线性影响。     

城市群功能分工、工业技术进步与工业污染——来自长三角城市群的数据检验

2003年起，我国城市群由专业化分工快速转向功能分工，但优化城市群功能分工是否有利于改善环境污染问题？运用2003-2017年长三角城市群面板数据，采用仅包括自变量空间滞后的SLX模型，研究城市群功能分工与工业技术进步对工业污染排放强度的影响效应。结果发现：在城市群层面，功能分工与工业污染排放强度呈正“U”型关系；功能分工结构效应和工业技术进步均能够显著降低工业污染排放；在城市群内部，功能分工空间溢出效应和工业技术进步空间滞后效应均有利于邻近城市减轻环境污染；但城市群功能分工技术效应和技术溢出效应均未体现出预期减排效应，城市群内部各城市间功能分工与协作需进一步加强。     

基于空间计量的中国省域人力资本与碳排放密度实证研究

基于2011年中国31个省域截面数据,应用空间计量模型分析人力资本对碳排放密度的影响。我国省域间碳排放密度存在着显著的空间相关性,即一个地区的碳排放密度受相邻地区碳排放行为的影响。采用不同指标测度出的不同类型的人力资本对地区碳排放密度的影响作用不同:基于教育年限法衡量的通用性人力资本对碳排放密度影响系数显著为正,即现阶段教育水平较高的地区碳排放密度也较大;以R&D人员为代表的异质性人力资本与碳排放密度之间存在弱负相关关系,但未通过显著性检验,表明异质性人力资本水平的提升对该地区减少碳排放的影响力度有限,也难以对相邻地区的碳减排产生正的溢出效应。     

Temporal and Spatial Homogeneity in Air Pollutants Panel EKC Estimations

Although panel data have been used intensively by a wealth of studies investigating the GDP-pollution relationship, the poolability assumption used to model these data is almost never addressed. This paper applies a strategy to test the poolability assumption with methods robust to functional misspecification. Nonparametric poolability tests are performed to check the temporal and spatial homogeneity of the panel and their results are compared with the conventional F-tests for a balanced panel of 48 Spanish provinces on four air pollutant emissions (CH₄, CO, CO₂ and NMVOC) over the 1990–2002 period. We show that temporal homogeneity may allow the pooling of the data and drive to well-defined nonparametric and parametric cross-sectional U-inverted shapes for all air pollutants. However, the presence of spatial heterogeneity makes this shape compatible with different time-series patterns in every province—mainly increasing or decreasing depending on the pollutant. These results highlight the extreme sensitivity of the income-pollution relationship to region- or country-specific factors.      

How Should An Accumulative Toxic Substance be Banned?

The harmful effects on human health or ecosystems of many toxic substances depend on their cumulative concentration in the carrying medium (water, soil, or air), not just on the annual deposition rates of the substances. Accumulative toxic substances pose challenges to regulatory policy that are not faced when controlling pollutants whose damaging effects are though to depend primarily on annual emission flows. An increasingly common response is to phase out offending uses or production of the substance. In this paper we take as given the goal of phasing out an accumulative pollutant and examine different ways this could be done using a simple, partial-equilibrium dynamic model. We focus on phaseout measures in which the cumulative production and release of the offending substance over the transition period is fixed. Once this cumulative volume is reached, users must convert to a known but higher-cost substitute that is assumed to be benign. The key to the analysis is the observation that the quota on cumulative production makes production of the toxic substance during the transition analogous to extraction of an exhaustible resource with a higher-cost, nonexhaustible ‘backstop’ technology. Using this framework, we first describe the cost-effective outcome when the ‘sunset’ date is chosen to maximize product market surplus subject to the cumulative production constraint. This outcome is compared to one in which the regulator fixes the sunset date, and one in which the regulator limits annual production as well as cumulative production out of concern for acute exposure effects. Finally, we discuss the kinds of market-based policy instruments that would be appropriate for supporting a cost-effective outcome.