On the potential economic costs of cutting carbon dioxide emissions in Portugal

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities on economic activity in Portugal. We find that energy consumption has a significant impact on macroeconomic activity. In fact, a 1 ton of oil equivalent permanent reduction in aggregate energy consumption reduces output in the long term by €6,340. More importantly, and since carbon dioxide emissions are linearly related to the amounts of fuel consumed, our results allow us to estimate the costs of reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. We estimate that a uniform standard for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion activities would lead to a marginal abatement cost of €95.74 per ton of carbon dioxide. This is a first rough estimate of the potential economic costs of policies designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. At this level one may conclude that uniform, across the board reductions in carbon emissions would have a clear negative effect on economic activity. Hence, at the aggregate level there is clear evidence for a trade-off between economic performance and a reduction in carbon emissions. This opens the door to the investigation of the scope for policy to minimize the costs of environmental policy and regulation.     

Projections of oil demand in road transportation sector on the basis of vehicle ownership projections,worldwide: 1972–2020

Oil demand in the road transportation section accounts for more than 50% of total world oil consumption amongst the whole sectors, including road, aviation, railway, waterways and international marine transportation. The high demand rate of oil makes this sector the main and major oil consumer in the world. The vehicle ownership or intensity of vehicles is one of the main factors which determines the development of oil demand in this major sector.Vehicle ownership (in 1000 population) is estimated using the nonlinear Gompertz model on the basis of pooled time series (1972–2020) and cross-sections data for 154 countries. Different saturation levels for the selected countries and over time horizon is calculated by adding specific demographic and geographic variables. Then, under two different scenarios – business as usual and policy scenario – we make projections of oil demand in the road transportation sector across 154 countries by using available data up to 2020.According to the results of the model, it is predicted that the number of world total vehicles will be approximately 1.5 times higher in 2020 than in 2008. Moreover, oil demand projections for road transportation over 2009–2020 show that under business as usual scenario, world oil demand will increase to 14,748 million barrel of oil equivalent until 2020 while under the policy scenario, which is based on the fuel efficiency improvement by 20% during a period of 10 years until 2020, world oil demand in the aforementioned sector will increase only to 11601 mboe until 2020.     

Economic diversity, development capacity and sustainable development of China

China's economic growth over the past several decades has been among the highest in the world. It has been fueled by cheap fossil fuel energy so energy consumption has risen rapidly, but there are signs that negative feedbacks in the form of waste and inefficiency may affect future development. If energy throughput exceeds the capacity of the environment to process the inevitable waste from production then the development may not be sustainable. We calculate economic diversity using an energy flow network analysis method to explore the relationships of development policy, energy use, efficiency and sustainable development. China and its provinces are presented as a case study and the development status of each province in China is presented. China's development policy does not appear to be sustainable over the period 1985–1998 because of unsustainable energy consumption trends and declining economic diversity. An energy consumption tax is proposed for increasing diversity and dealing with increasing energy consumption in China.     

A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions in the United States

This article decomposes the growth in US CO₂ emissions by state. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, we account for CO₂ emissions change in each state between 1990 and 2004. The change is decomposed into five effects: (a) emissions per unit of fossil fuel; (b) share of fossil fuel in total energy consumption; (c) energy intensity; (d) gross state product per capita and (e) population. Results show that for the past 15 years gains in the efficiency of energy use in the economy, the lowering share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption and lowering of emissions intensity of fuels all contributed to offsetting the effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the population growth in carbon emission across the US.     

Green, Brown, and Now White Certificates: Are Three One Too Many? A Micro-Model of Market Interaction

In recent years, European environmental policy has focused primarily on the reduction of carbon emissions and on fostering the expansion of renewable energy production. In 2008, the EU established the 20/20/20 vision, demanding that carbon emissions and energy consumption both be reduced by 20%, and that the production of Green Energy be further increased in order to account for 20 percent of total energy production by 2020. Regarding the reduction of emissions, a cap-and-trade system (Brown Certificates) was implemented. for the fostering of so called renewable, i.e. Green, energy different nations chose different measures, such as direct subsidies, feed-in-tariffs (e.g. Germany), or Green Certificate markets based on a quota system (e.g. Denmark). Recently, a market-based instrument (White Certificates) intended to improve efficiency of non-commercial energy consumption is also on the agenda of several European nations (demand side management). All of these instruments are directed towards the energy market. Therefore, this paper deals with identifying interdependencies and trade-offs that might occur, if both, supply and demand side, of a single market are regulated by different policy measures. Our results show that, in fact, significant interdependencies and trade-offs exist. In our model, a feed-in tariff in combination with an emission cap or tax renders the most favorable results??in the absence of demand side management.     

中国碳减排目标的可达性:能源政策与经济发展

2009年11月,中国国务院宣布到2020年,在2005年的基础之上将碳排放强度,即单位GDP二氧化碳排放量降低40%～45%。这一目标能否达成对于中国以及全球抵御气候变化都将产生深刻影响。分析我国能源消耗和经济发展的历史和现状,系统梳理到目前为止我国所制定和实施的能源政策,并结合情景分析预测了我国能否达到既定的碳排放强度削减目标。结果表明,我国实现减排目标是乐观的,但仍需要有针对性的政策导向。最后根据以上分析,对我国下一阶段的能源消耗和经济发展政策提出了相应建议,即加大科技支出,继续淘汰落后产能,推动先进生产技术应用;加大产业结构调整力度,大力发展第三产业;推动能源价格市场化进程。     

Harnessing rivers of wind: A technology and policy assessment of high altitude wind power in the U.S.

This paper provides an assessment of the commercialization potential for high altitude wind power (HWP). Several technological and policy barriers are identified that may affect the development and deployment of the technology in the US. Technical barriers include electrical transmission from high altitudes and the development of viable methods of energy storage to address intermittency. Non-technical barriers include the lack of a carbon price in the US, which provides an advantage to embedded technologies and widens the ‘valley of death.’ A variety of stakeholders are analyzed in order to understand potential impacts upon the development of HWP. Many fossil fuel producers and utility companies have been leveraging political authority to lobby against a carbon tax, which could be crucial for broad deployment of renewable energy technologies. The combination of technical and non-technical barriers indicates that commercialization of HWP is unlikely in the short term. Commercialization would require major policy shifts at the federal level and advances in S&T. Recommendations are provided to increase federal investment in applied research through additional funding for the Advanced Research Projects Agency—Energy (ARPA-E). It is also recommended that ARPA-E create a matching fund to assist in the commercialization of renewable energy technologies.     

Scenario development in China's electricity sector

The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in (vol.) of this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.     

Quantification of the environmental impacts of road conditions in Brazil

This study evaluates the impacts of Brazilian highway conditions on fuel consumption and, consequently, on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. For the purpose of this study, highway conditions refer to the level of highway maintenance: the incidence of large potholes, large surface cracks, uneven sections, and debris. Primary computer collected data related to the fuel consumption of three types of trucks were analyzed. The data were derived from 88 trips taken over six routes, each route representative of one of two highway conditions: better or worse. Study results are initially presented for each type of truck being monitored. The results are then aggregated to approximate the entire Brazilian highway network. In all cases, results confirmed environmental benefits resulting from travel over the better routes. There was found to be an increase in energy efficiency from traveling better roads, which resulted in lower fuel consumption and lower CO₂ emissions. Statistical analysis of the results suggests that, in general, fuel consumption data were significant at *P < 0.05, rejecting the null hypothesis that average fuel consumption from traveling the better routes is statistically equal to average fuel consumption from traveling the worse routes. Improved Brazilian road conditions would generate economic benefits, reduce dependency on and consumption of fossil fuels (due to the increase in energy efficiency), and reduce CO₂ emissions. These findings may have additional relevancy if Brazil needs to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to reach future Kyoto Protocol's emissions targets, which should take effect in January 2013.     

Is there a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions?

We analyze the effect of fuel mix, model specification, and the level of development on the presence and size of a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use and/or carbon emissions. The results indicate that fuel mix, the specification for income, and the level of economic development affect conclusions about whether there is a turning point in the relationship between economic activity and energy use and carbon emissions. Including fuel shares generally reduces the size of a turning point that is estimated from a panel that includes observations from both OECD and Non-OECD nations. But this result varies according to the level of development. For OECD nations, there is limited support for a turning point in the relationship between income and per capita energy use and/or carbon emissions. For non-OECD nations, there is no turning point in the relationship between income and either energy use or carbon emissions. Instead, the relationship is positive. Together, the results indicate that forecasters and policy makers should not depend on a turning point in the relationship between income and energy use or carbon emissions to reduce either.     

Effects of Transport Regulation on the Oil Market: Does Market Power Matter?

Instruments used to regulate the consumption of oil in the transport sector include fuel taxes, biofuel requirements, and fuel‐efficiency standards. However, the effects that these have on oil consumption and price vary. If market power is present in the oil market, the directions of change in consumption and price might contrast with those in a competitive market. As a result, the market structure affects not only the effectiveness of the policy instruments used to reduce oil consumption, but also the terms of trade and carbon leakage. In particular, reduced oil consumption, as a result of increased fuel‐efficiency standards, will unambiguously increase the price of oil under a monopoly.     

Factors affecting electricity generation in China: Current situation and prospects

China has attracted worldwide attention due to the global economic and environmental effects of its rapid economic growth over the last 20 years, with particular attention given to the country's accelerating energy consumption and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. China's electricity sector is particularly important for both of these issues as it accounts for nearly half of its greenhouse gas emissions and even greater proportions of the country's demands for primary fuel resources. In order to better understand how these issues may progress in an economy changing as fast as China's, this paper develops a framework that can be used to help model the electricity sector's future development. The framework builds upon key technological and socio-economic drivers, including those affecting electricity demand (e.g., economic growth, structure, energy efficiency, urbanization, and change in per capita income) and electricity supply (e.g., deregulation, initiatives to promote natural gas, nuclear and renewable energy, air pollution regulations, price developments for coal and natural gas, and changes in generation technology). The framework serves as a foundation for a scenario exercise on the greenhouse gas and fuel consumption impacts of different developmental paths for China's electricity sector. These scenarios and their implications for emissions and fuel consumption are presented in a subsequent article.     

The impacts of weather variations on energy demand and carbon emissions

This paper examines the impacts of climate fluctuations on carbon emissions using monthly models of US energy demand. The econometric analysis estimates price, income, and weather elasticities of short-run energy demand. Our model simulations suggest that warmer climate conditions in the US since 1982 slightly reduced carbon emissions in the US. Lower energy use associated with reduced heating requirements offsets higher fuel consumption to meet increased air-conditioning needs. The analysis also suggests that climate change policies should allow some variance in carbon emissions due to short-term weather variations.     

瑞典在提高能源效率方面的政策举措

在全球能源需求日益增大的形势下,提高能源效率成为当前解决能源问题与控制碳排放的关键。瑞典政府高度重视能源利用效率,在工业、建筑及相关服务业、交通运输业这三大主要能源消耗领域,制定与实施了一系列提高能源效率的政策举措并取得了显著成效。如:制定高能耗企业能源效率提高计划,提高企业节能意识;通过出台新的建筑规章及推出各类财政补贴政策等,充分调动建筑及相关服务业的积极性;支持可再生能源的开发利用,鼓励高能效机动车的研发生产;等等。通过介绍与分析这些政策举措,旨在为我国能源战略的实施提供一定借鉴。     

欧盟关于气候变化政策的新进展

本文分析了欧盟理事会2008年3月批准了欧盟气候与能源的一揽子行动计划的背景,提出：欧盟高度重视气候变化,除了因为气候变化已经日益影响人类的生活外,主要是基于自身能源、经济增长和就业的考虑。分析了欧盟实现减排的方式,更新的排放交易机制将是主要手段,还有发展可再生能源、提高能效、利用清洁发展机制,以及应用碳捕捉与储存技术等,指出：欧盟气候变化关键目标是“两个20％”,即：到2020年,温室气体排放至少减少20％,能源消费中可再生能源的份额占20％。     

Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China

This paper investigates the existence and direction of Granger causality between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China, applying a multivariate model of economic growth, energy use, carbon emissions, capital and urban population. Empirical results for China over the period 1960-2007 suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP to energy consumption, and a unidirectional Granger causality running from energy consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. Evidence shows that neither carbon emissions nor energy consumption leads economic growth. Therefore, the government of China can purse conservative energy policy and carbon emissions reduction policy in the long run without impeding economic growth.     

Output‐based rebating of carbon taxes in a neighbour's backyard: Competitiveness,leakage and welfare

We investigate how, in an open economy, carbon taxes combined with output‐based rebating (OBR) perform in interaction with the carbon policies of a large neighbouring trading partner. Analytical results suggest that, whether the purpose of the OBR policy is to compensate firms for carbon tax burdens or to maximize welfare (accounting for global emission reductions), the OBR rate should be positive in policy‐relevant cases. Numerical simulations for Canada, with the US as the neighbouring trading partner, indicate that the impact of US policies on the OBR rate will depend crucially on the purpose of the Canadian OBR policies. If, for a given US carbon policy, Canada's aim is to restore the competitiveness of domestic emission‐intensive and trade‐exposed (EITE) firms to the same level as before the introduction of its own carbon taxation, we find that the necessary domestic OBR rates will be insensitive to the foreign carbon policies. However, if not only the Canadian carbon tax but also an equally high US tax is introduced, compensatory Canadian OBR rates will be up to 50% lower, depending on the sector and on US OBR policy. If the policy objective is to increase economy‐wide allocative efficiency (welfare) of Canadian policies by accounting for carbon leakage, the US policies will have only a minor downward pressure on desirable OBR rates in Canada. Practical choices of OBR rates hardly affect overall domestic economic performance; thus, output‐based rebating qualifies as an instrument for compensating EITE industries without a large sacrifice in terms of economy‐wide allocative efficiency.     

World natural gas endowment as a bridge towards zero carbon emissions

We use a global energy market (GEM) model to show that natural gas has the potential to help stabilize global carbon emissions in a span of about 50–100 years and pave the way towards low and zero carbon energy.The GEM provides a close fit of the global energy mix between 1850 and 2005. It also matches historical carbon and CO₂ emissions generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. The model is used then to forecast the future energy mix, as well as the carbon and CO₂ emissions, up to the year 2150.Historical data show relative decarbonization and an increase in the amount of hydrogen burned as a percent of fossil fuel use between 1850 and 1970. The GEM indicates that with a larger contribution of natural gas to the future energy market, the burned hydrogen percentage will increase. This decarbonization will help to advance economic and environmental sustainability.     

The determinants of production-related carbon emissions in West Germany, 1985–1990: assessing the role of technology and trade

This paper examines the determinants of the substantial decline of West German production-related carbon intensity in the face of falling energy prices. A computable general equilibrium model is used to determine the simulated effects of observed changes of world energy prices and domestic energy policy on the sectoral patterns of carbon emissions, energy consumption, output, value-added and other indicators of structural change. The structural changes not accounted for by energy prices and energy policy are attributed to changing patterns of productivity growth in Germany and the rest of the world (ROW) and changing patterns of ROW demand. Weights on these driving forces are selected by least squares. One key finding is that the contribution of ROW productivity and demand patterns to emission-relevant structural change unaccounted for by energy prices and energy policy is just under 30%. The remainder is split almost equally among patterns of domestic autonomous energy efficiency improvement and domestic labor efficiency patterns.     

New Labour, energy policy and 'competitive markets'

By the end of New Labour's first term four central objectivesof energy policy had become established: ‘cheap’energy, the relief of fuel poverty, a major reduction of carbondioxide emissions, and energy security through maintaining awide diversity of primary fuel supplies, all to be achievedthrough ‘competition’. After surveying New Labourenergy policy documents, the paper argues that New Labour failedto appreciate (i) the extent to which, under such a laissezfaire policy regime, these objectives were mutually inconsistent;(ii) that the apparent successes of energy market liberalisationduring the preceding Conservative Governments had little todo with ‘competition’; and (iii) that the transactioncosts of injecting increasing ‘competition’ intoboth British and European energy systems are likely to exacerbatethe growing threat to energy security. The paper concludes witha brief examination of the implications of transaction costeconomics for the organisational structure of the UK energysupply industry.