Apple's disaster: Linking two‐sided markets and strategic delegation

Asymmetric pricing structure and different intergroup network externalities are characteristics of two‐sided markets not captured in the analysis of one‐sided markets. Focusing on Cournot duopoly where membership decision may be delegated to a manager, several equilibrium regimes are sustained depending on the fixed cost of managerial hiring and strength of the network externality exerted by the side whose demand is more price sensitive. The change from null to full delegation sharpens the asymmetric pricing structure and reduces the price level in two‐sided markets. Contrary to one‐sided markets with direct network effects, the prisoner's dilemma holds for sufficiently strong indirect network externalities. Imperfect interside discrimination of managerial incentives ensures profit maximization and efficient consumers' allocation. Private hiring should occur when the two‐sided market exhibits symmetric pricing structure. An explanation for Apple's unprecedented event is provided. The reduction of revenue and managerial bonus in 2016 may be justified by the dissemination of full delegation in the Chinese information technology industry. Apple's upcoming strategy may consist on reducing both access prices, although the side whose demand is more price sensitive should have a greater price reduction. Alternatively, improving the content quality may constitute Apple's corporate strategy, thereby inducing a skimming pricing strategy on Chinese rivals.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

Estimation of Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Models: Application to Daily Average Prices of Energy Products

Energy supply and demand, and as a consequence energy prices, are likely to represent one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. Commodity markets exhibit increased volatility when there is little or no underutilized supply capability to meet natural fluctuations in demand. In the case of energy markets, the large capital requirements and significant lead times associated with energy production and delivery make them more susceptible to the imbalances in supply capability and demand. Energy price volatility has destructive impact on market agents, and this impact is intensified when the prices exhibit asymmetric volatility. This article pursues two aspects of the issue. First we consider general aspects, especially the asymmetric pattern of volatility of daily returns of different types of energy products. Then, we analyze the behaviour of daily returns by using traditional models of volatility that include AGARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH, and ARSV strategies, as well as a threshold asymmetric autoregressive stochastic volatility (TA-ARSV) model that we propose. The energy products considered in this analysis are probably the most relevant energy products for the economic activity of the nations and the economic relations between countries: Crude Oil (OPEC reference basket and London Brent index), Gasoline, Natural Gas, Butane, and Propane. We use spot prices and the time reference ranges from 1986–1993 to 2009 depending on the product.     

Pay to Switch or Pay to Stay: Preference-Based Price Discrimination in Markets with Switching Costs

In many markets, firms can price discriminate between their own customers and their rivals' customers, charging one price to consumers who prefer their own product and another price to consumers who prefer a rival's product. We find that when demand is symmetric, charging a lower price to a rival's customers is always optimal. When demand is asymmetric, however, it may be more profitable to charge a lower price to one's own customers. Surprisingly, price discrimination can lead to lower prices to all consumers, not only to the group that is more elastic, but also to the less elastic group.     

Speculation in the Oil Market

The run‐up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price co‐movement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large dataset using a dynamic factor model. This method is motivated by the fact that a small‐scale vector autoregression is not informationally sufficient to identify the shocks. The main results are as follows. (i) While global demand shocks account for the largest share of oil price fluctuations, speculative shocks are the second most important driver. (ii) The increase in oil prices over the last decade is mainly driven by the strength of global demand. However, speculation played a significant role in the oil price increase between 2004 and 2008 and its subsequent collapse. (iii) The co‐movement between oil prices and the prices of other commodities is mainly explained by global demand shocks. Our results support the view that the recent oil price increase is mainly driven by the strength of global demand but that the financialization process of commodity markets also played a role. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PROMOTING INNOVATION IN THE ELECTRICITY INDUSTRY

Smart metering can bring significant benefits to electricity markets by allowing customers to reduce demand or increase supply when generation capacity is temporarily scarce. To reap the full efficiency and environmental benefits of this technology, regulators must allow price volatility and free entry into the market. The efficiency gains are enormous as both demand and supply will be affected by both temporary and longer‐lasting price changes. Experiments have shown the value of this approach.     

Spatial competition with demand uncertainty: A laboratory experiment

Motivated by recent research on product differentiation, we conduct laboratory experiments to study how demand uncertainty influences firms' incentives to differentiate. We ground our experiment on a discrete version of the standard location-then-price game introduced by Hotelling (1929), and we consider different levels of demand uncertainty. We first derive the game equilibrium assuming risk-neutral firms, and obtain the standard prediction that a high level of demand uncertainty generates more differentiation. Second, we extend the analysis to consider non-risk neutral firms and markets with asymmetric risk profiles. We show that the game equilibrium can differ substantially according to the attitude to risk. Third, we compare our predictions with the experimental data and find that demand uncertainty acts as a differentiation force in the context of both symmetric markets composed of risk-neutral or risk-lover subjects and asymmetric markets. We find support also for the agglomeration effect arising from demand uncertainty for sufficiently risk-averse subjects. Overall, these results might explain the opposite product differentiation strategies frequently observed in markets with fast-evolving tastes (i.e., minimum or maximum differentiation). Finally, the data confirm that subjects differentiate to relax price competition and provide evidence of a strong positive relationship between differentiation and prices.     

THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to flow demand and flow supply. The speculative component of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. Our estimates rule out explanations of the 2003–2008 oil price surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, this surge was caused by unexpected increases in world oil consumption driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oil price shock episodes including 1979, 1986 and 1990. Our analysis implies that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003–2008 oil price surge. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short‐run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for for the endogeneity of the price of oil. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Performance Standards on Health Care Provider Behavior: Evidence from Kidney Transplantation

Performance standards are designed to ensure a basic level of quality, and through public reporting of firm performance, encourage firms to compete on quality thus allowing the market to determine the optimal level of quality. In markets with substantial excess demand, however, demand effects may be insufficient to induce any change in firm behavior and enforcement may be required to ensure high quality. Even with enforcement, quality still may not improve at underperforming firms if gaming the system is less costly than improving quality. We test whether information alone or with regulatory enforcement improves outcomes or elicits gaming behavior in our study of 266 kidney transplant centers between 2001 and 2012. In a context of excess demand induced by price controls, we show that information alone has no impact and enforcement may actually increase market inefficiencies; firms respond to costly quality requirements, not by improving quality, but by reducing supply, which exacerbates the disequilibrium between supply and demand, and by cream‐skimming, which reduces access to transplantation among sicker patients.     

Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets

This study investigates the link between the price discovery dynamics in sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and bond markets and the degree of financial integration of emerging markets. Using CDS and sovereign bond spreads, the price discovery mechanism was tested using a vector error correction model. Financial integration is measured using news-based methods. We find that sovereign CDS and bond markets are co-integrated. In five out of seven sovereigns (71%), the bond market leads in price discovery by adjusting to new information regarding credit risk before CDS. In 29% of times, CDS markets are the source of price discovery. We also find a positive correlation of 0.67 between the degree of financial integration and the bond market information share. The evidence suggests that changes in sovereign credit risk and bond yields are significantly influenced by common external (global) factors, while country-specific factors play an insignificant role.     

Modeling and forecasting of stock index volatility with APARCH models under ordered restriction

This article examines volatility models for modeling and forecasting the Standard & Poor 500 (S&P 500) daily stock index returns, including the autoregressive moving average, the Taylor and Schwert generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle GARCH and asymmetric power ARCH (APARCH) with the following conditional distributions: normal, Student's t and skewed Student's t‐distributions. In addition, we undertake unit root (augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron) tests, co‐integration test and error correction model. We study the stationary APARCH (p) model with parameters, and the uniform convergence, strong consistency and asymptotic normality are prove under simple ordered restriction. In fitting these models to S&P 500 daily stock index return data over the period 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2012, we found that the APARCH model using a skewed Student's t‐distribution is the most effective and successful for modeling and forecasting the daily stock index returns series. The results of this study would be of great value to policy makers and investors in managing risk in stock markets trading.     

Accounting for the Political Uncertainty Factor

We build our analysis upon previous work by Bloom et al. (Measuring the Effect of Political Uncertainty. Working Paper, Stanford University, 2012) and Baker et al. (Political Uncertainty: A New Indicator. CentrePiece 2012; 16 (3): 21–23), who estimate the dynamic effects of a shock to a newly constructed surrogate measure of political uncertainty (PU) on the US economy. Comparable to their results we demonstrate that a shock to PU has pervasive effects on the dynamic evolution of the US economy. Using an estimated structural dynamic factor model we find that more globally integrated markets exhibit significantly more pronounced responses than other measures of real economic activity. Impulse responses reveal a small but statistically significant ‘flight‐to‐safety’ effect, depressing government bond yields across the entire term structure following a shock to PU. Forecast error variance decompositions are predominantly composed of supply, demand, and PU shocks over all horizons, with PU shocks contributing less and supply shocks contributing more to forecast errors at longer horizons. Technology shocks, by contrast, are found to affect forecast accuracy closer to impact with quickly decaying contributions over extended forecast horizons. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A cobweb model of land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops

We present a model of interacting cobweb markets and apply it to land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops. In our model the markets are interlinked on the supply side by the limited availability of land. Therefore, instabilities are transferred between the markets and we find that bioenergy demand affects food price volatility. The agents in the model have heterogeneous production capacities, representing variation in global land quality. When we allow agents to choose price predictor, we find that a more sophisticated (but costly) predictor is concentrated to some key parcels of land, which enables the system to reduce instability significantly. The system can also be brought closer to a stable state by introducing costs for changing production type, but it may then be shifted away from the optimum situation predicted by the corresponding equilibrium model.     

Chain-Store Pricing Across Local Markets

Chain‐stores now dominate most areas of retailing. While retailers may operate nationally or even internationally, the markets they compete in are largely local. How should they best operate pricing policy in respect of the different markets served—price uniformly across the local markets or on a local basis according to market conditions? We model this by allowing local market differences, with retail markets differing by their size and the number of players present. We show that practising price discrimination is not always best for a chain‐store. Competitive conditions exist under which uniform pricing can raise profits.     

Crude oil price dynamics with crash risk under fundamental shocks

Our paper presents a crude oil price model in which the price is confined in a wide moving band. A price crash occurs when the price breaches the lower boundary where a smooth-pasting condition is imposed. Using an asymmetric mean-reverting fundamental (supply/demand) shock, the solution derived from the oil price equation for the model shows the oil price follows a mean-reverting square-root process, which is quasi-bounded at the boundary. The oil price dynamics generates left-skewed price distributions consistent with empirical observations. A weakened mean-reverting force for the price increases the probability leakage for the price across the boundary and the risk of a price crash. The empirical results show the oil price dynamics can be calibrated according to the model, where the mean reversion of the price dynamics is positively co-integrated with the oil production reaction to negative demand shocks, and with the risk reversals of the commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar in currency option markets. The results are consistent with an increased price crash risk with negative demand shocks and negative risk reversals. The forecasting performance of the oil price model is better than the futures-spread models and random walk models during the crash periods. While the price of oil was above the lower boundary for most of the time, the conditions for breaching the boundary were met in 2008 and 2014 when the price fell sharply.     

Asymmetric Price Adjustments in Airlines

This paper uses a unique daily time series data set to investigate the asymmetric response of airline prices to capacity costs driven by demand fluctuations. We use a Markov regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities to capture the time variation in the response. The results show strong evidence of asymmetric price adjustments: positive cost shifts have a large positive effect, whereas negative cost shifts have no effect. The asymmetry is also explained by summer travel but not by the size of cost shifts. The findings show the importance of consumer heterogeneity and capacity constraints as a source of asymmetric responses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION

Abstract In this paper, we review the existing empirical literature on price asymmetries in commodities, providing a way to classify and compare different studies that are highly heterogeneous in terms of econometric models, type of asymmetries and empirical findings. Relative to the previous literature, this paper is novel in several respects. First, it presents a detailed and updated survey of the existing empirical contributions on price asymmetries in the transmission mechanism linking input prices to output prices. Second, this paper presents an extension of the traditional distinction between long‐run and short‐run asymmetries to new categories of asymmetries, such as: contemporaneous impact, distributed lag effect, cumulated impact, reaction time, equilibrium and momentum equilibrium adjustment path, regime effect, regime equilibrium adjustment path. Each empirical study is then critically discussed in the light of this new classification of asymmetries. Third, this paper evaluates the relative merits of the most popular econometric models for price asymmetries, namely autoregressive distributed lags, partial adjustments, error correction models, regime switching and vector autoregressive models. Finally, we use the meta‐regression analysis to investigate whether the results of asymmetry tests are not model‐invariant and find which additional factors systematically influence the rejection of the null hypothesis of symmetric price adjustment. The main results of our survey can be summarized as follows: (i) each econometric model is specialized to capture a subset of asymmetries; (ii) each asymmetry is better investigated by a subset of econometric models; (iii) the general significance of the F test for asymmetric price transmission depends mainly on characteristics of the data, dynamic specification of the econometric model, and market characteristics. Overall, our empirical findings confirm that asymmetry, in all its forms, is very likely to occur in a wide range of markets and econometric models.     

Limited information Bayesian analysis of a simultaneous equation with an autocorrelated error term and its application to the U.S. gasoline market

Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms within the limited information Bayesian framework, we estimate the parameters of the structural equation of interest and test weak exogeneity in a simultaneous equation model with white noise as well as autocorrelated error terms. A numerical example and an estimation of the supply and demand equations of the U.S. gasoline market show that if we ignore autocorrelation we obtain unreasonable posterior distributions of the parameters of interest. Also we find that the hypothesis of the asymmetric effect of the changes in oil price on the changes in gasoline price is rejected. Oil inventory has a significant negative effect on the gasoline price.     

The asymmetric effect of crude oil prices on stock prices in major international financial markets

The aim of this paper is to explore the potential asymmetric impacts of positive and negative shocks in crude oil prices on stock prices in six major international financial markets which include China, Hong Kong, America, Japan, Britain, and Germany. We test for these asymmetric effects on 8 major international financial markets indices over the 2007M01–2020M03 periods. Our independent measures include the prices of Brent crude oil futures and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures. We use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin et al. (2014), which can capture both short- and long-run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the explanatory variables. This research finds that positive and negative fluctuations of oil price have asymmetric effects on stock price index in four financial markets, but the performance of the asymmetry is different. Specifically, the impacts of volatility in oil prices on two indices of Chinese stock prices are different, and the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility on stock price indices in China and other financial markets are significantly different.     

THE ROLE OF TIME‐VARYING PRICE ELASTICITIES IN ACCOUNTING FOR VOLATILITY CHANGES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET

There has been a systematic increase in the volatility of the real price of crude oil since 1986, followed by a decline in the volatility of oil production since the early 1990s. We explore reasons for this evolution. We show that a likely explanation of this empirical fact is that both the short‐run price elasticities of oil demand and of oil supply have declined considerably since the second half of the 1980s. This implies that small disturbances on either side of the oil market can generate large price responses without large quantity movements, which helps explain the latest run‐up and subsequent collapse in the price of oil. Our analysis suggests that the variability of oil demand and supply shocks actually has decreased in the more recent past, preventing even larger oil price fluctuations than observed in the data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.