中国体制转型与城镇居民家庭财富分配差距——一个资产转换的视角

本文以中国城镇住房改革为例,从资产转换的角度研究了中国体制转型过程中城镇居民家庭财富积累及分配差距的产生。20世纪80年代以来的房屋政策鼓励工作单位将住房出售给现有居民,即住房商品化。通过1988、1995和2002年中国城镇住户收入调查的数据分析,20世纪90年代中期以来的住房商品化过程中,相对于私营部门居民家庭,干部和国有单位工作的家庭更容易以折扣价从工作单位获得住房。随着近期住房市场的繁荣,原有的以及住房商品化过程中产生的住房不平等,已经转化成国有和私营部门家庭财富的更大差距,而且干部的住房增值优势和国有部门家庭的财富优势随着市场化的推进有加速增加的趋势。     

住房公积金导致了不平等吗*——来自中国家庭金融调查的证据

住房公积金制度作为一项政策性住房金融制度，能够缓解家庭购房金融约束、稳定住房金融市场，成为实现“房住不炒”的重要政策工具。本文以2015年实施的住房公积金信贷宽松政策作为外生冲击，从财富效应的角度研究了住房公积金制度对不同家庭购房行为的影响。利用双重差分的实证研究方法，本文发现目前住房公积金主要促进了缴存家庭的多套房需求，加大了缴存家庭与非缴存家庭的住房财富差距。住房信贷政策的针对性与多样性急需提升。     

On the user cost and homeownership

This paper studies the differences in the cost of housing services for renters and homeowners and calculates the bias that results when we value owner-occupied housing services using a rental equivalence approach. Our framework is a life-cycle model with endogenous tenure choice with households facing idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk and housing price risk. We model houses as illiquid assets that provide collateral for loans. To analyze the impact of preferential housing taxation on the tenure choice and the bias, we consider a tax system that mimics that of the US economy. Namely, owner-occupied housing services are not taxed and mortgage interest payments are deductible. Through simulations, we show that a rental equivalence approach (relative to a user cost approach) overestimates the cost of housing services. The magnitude of the bias is very sensitive to both the income tax rate and the size of adjustment costs in the housing market.     

Financial market and housing wealth effects on consumption: a permanent income approach

The objective of this study is to examine the financial market and housing wealth effects on consumption. Housing has the dual functions as both a commodity yielding a flow of housing services and an investment asset yielding a flow of capital income. With the construction of an empirical framework based on the vector autoregression approach, the findings from this study suggest that a rise in housing price has both a positive wealth effect and a negative price effect on consumption. While the positive wealth effect is caused by an increase in capital income, the negative price effect is caused by an increase in the cost of housing services. In addition, the housing market wealth effect increases, at the expense of the price effect, with the level of housing-market leverage. These findings imply that the government policy of land supply aiming to stimulate the economy should strike a balance between the possible wealth and price effects of the housing market.     

HOUSING POLICY FOR UTILIZATION OF EXISTING HOUSING

Existing housing is not fully utilized in Japan. We explore the problems that discourage the utilization of the existing housing. We present policy plans to solve these problems, and to activate the existing housing market. Our plans include using a hedonic price function to determine appropriate methods for valuing existing housing, introduction of latent defects insurance for existing houses for sale, encouraging the use of fixed‐term housing leases and an providing an intermediary service between the elderly and next users of their houses. Our plan will accelerate the utilization of existing housing and ease the process for the elderly of selling or leasing existing vacant housing.     

Land and housing: The twin forces of non-balanced growth

In a three-sector closed economy where housing land is accumulated for the construction of houses, we depict significant effects of housing and land market on sectoral growth. We assume agriculture is the most intensive in the use of land, followed by manufacturing and then services. In the long run, land intensity differences in conjunction with labor growth contribute to sectoral growth gaps. In the short run, due to housing land accumulation, the economy transitions along a non-monotonic convergent path to the steady state. Using the US data, we quantify that land accounts for about one-tenth of long-run and short-run sectoral output growth gaps. We also incorporate sector-specific land-use restrictions to show that, despite these regulations, land and housing have qualitative effects on non-balanced growth.     

Wealth Effects and Consumption: A Panel VAR Approach

We provide new evidence on the comparison between the stock and housing wealth effects on consumption. Using a panel VAR approach applied to OECD data, we find evidence that the stock market wealth effect is generally the larger. However, with regard to the evolution of asset wealth effects over time, our findings show that the housing wealth effect has outweighed the share market wealth effect in the last decade. We further find that asset wealth has asymmetric effects on consumption, with stronger and more persistent effects from positive asset wealth shocks. Our results have important monetary policy implications for both stock and real estate markets, and offer timely insights into the desirability of current proposals to reduce house price volatility, such as through macro prudential regulations.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME AND WEALTH IN JAPAN

This paper reviews research on the distribution of income and wealth in Japan, identifies sources of data on income and wealth, and describes limitations of these data. Evidence that Japan's poorest income groups are relatively well-off is convincing, but there is less evidence that the overall distribution of income in Japan is more equal than in other OECD countries. Agricultural policy, social welfare policy, the tax system, trends in earnings differentials, and the role of the Japanese family are among the many factors that have shaped Japan's income distribution. The rapid appreciation of the stock market and land prices during the late 1980s led to greater inequality in the distribution of wealth. Rapid population aging is expected to lead to an increase in total national wealth relative to national income which may have an adverse impact on the distribution of income.     

SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS AS A RETIREMENT RESOURCE FOR U.S. NEAR-RETIREES

This paper analyzes Social Security benefits as a retirement resource (wealth and income) for U.S. near-retirees. We look at how the average values of several measures of benefits such as Social Security wealth and earnings replacement rates have changed from earlier cohorts to today's near-retirement cohort, examine differences among demographic and socioeconomic groups within cohorts, and discuss reasons for these changes and differences. We use improved data (actual earnings history data) to produce more accurate measures of benefits. The paper also uses some new benefit measures. Three key findings are: (1) average real Social Security wealth increases markedly as we move to later cohorts primarily because of increases in average real lifetime earnings; (2) replacement rates fall as we move from the cohorts of persons reaching 61 in 1993–97 to later cohorts primarily because of the phase-in of increases in the age of eligibility for full benefits and the increasing labor market activity of women; and (3) median Social Security wealth is much higher for women than for men because women live longer.     

A simple model of a speculative housing market

We develop a simple model of a speculative housing market in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Guided by empirical evidence, agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relative importance of these competing views evolves over time, subject to market circumstances. As it turns out, the dynamics of our model is driven by a two-dimensional nonlinear map which may display irregular boom and bust housing price cycles, as repeatedly observed in many actual markets. Complex interactions between real and speculative forces play a key role in such dynamic developments.     

Housing investment in urban China

What explains the rapidly increasing housing investment demand in China? To address this question, we develop an analytical framework featuring how expected capital gains impact households' housing investment decisions when subject to financial constraints. Housing demand in China takes place not only through households' owning multiple houses, but also through their owning a larger primary living residence if they are constrained from buying multiple houses. We show that households are more likely to own multiple houses when expecting higher capital gains. As expected capital gain increases, the primary housing demand of those households who are constrained from owning multiple houses increases, while those owing multiple housing units invest in extra ones instead of improving primary housing. Our empirical findings, based on 2010 and 2011 household survey data, are consistent with our theoretical predictions. We also find that the marginal effect of expected capital gains is higher for wealthier households. This links the booming housing market to widening income inequality which is a typical growth pain in a developing country like China. As an extension, we apply the analysis to derive implications of the institutional features (such as purchasing restriction policy and the existence of subsidized housing) for China’s housing markets.     

Joint Adjustment of House Prices, Stock Prices and Output Towards Short‐run Equilibrium

A dynamic IS‐LM model including houses and stocks as additional assets will be analysed in this paper. Providing also housing services, a major consumption item for most households, houses create an additional link between the monetary and the real sector, distinct from the traditional wealth effect channel. We analyse the adjustment path of output, house prices and stock prices after policy shocks within a rational expectation setup. Depending crucially on the elasticity of housing services demand, different reaction patterns of asset prices will emerge. The results are contrasted with relevant empirical findings, particularly Lastrapes (Journal of Housing Economics, 11 (2002), pp. 40–74), leading to the identification of plausible elasticity ranges. The analysis sheds new light on the ongoing discussion about demand effects from changing real estate wealth and about determinants of house price fluctuations.     

The effect of housing allocation on social inequality in Hungary

The main characteristics of the present Hungarian housing sector are as follows: there are state-owned apartments with rents centrally fixed at a very low level and privately owned houses and condominiums sold at high prices on the free market. In cities chronic housing shortages prevail. This paper investigates the impact of the dual housing market on social inequalities. After surveying the ethical principles of contemporary Hungarian socialism, we examine the factual distribution of dwellings and the variables explaining it. It is shown that the redistributive effect of state subsidies in housing does not reduce, but, on the contrary, increases inequality.     

Tax treatment of owner occupied housing and wealth inequality

We construct a quantitative general equilibrium lifecycle model with housing tenure decisions to investigate the degree to which wealth inequality in the United States is affected by the preferential tax treatment of home-ownership. Favorable tax treatment of owner occupied housing in the form of home mortgage interest and property tax deductibility, and the untaxed nature of imputed rents, provides a financial incentive for home-ownership over renting as well as an incentive to “over-consume” housing since houses are not fungible. Since the favorable tax treatment of housing disproportionately creates tax savings for the upper quantiles of the income distribution, we quantify how it contributes to the heavily right skewed distribution of wealth in the United States using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. We consider a revenue-neutral government response to the counter factual experiments of removing the current tax structure on housing. Our quantitative analysis shows that, in terms of distributional effects, removing all of the preferential tax treatments results in an aggregate increase in welfare. However, we do not find any reduction in inequality. We also find that while some re-allocation toward financial assets occurs, households primarily increase their consumption when imputed housing rents are taxed and the property tax deduction is removed. Thus housing tax policy may be effective at encouraging more overall saving through housing assets.     

RETIREMENT WEALTH AND LIFETIME EARNINGS*

This article argues that a satisfactory theory of wealth inequality should account not only for the marginal distribution of wealth, but also for the joint distribution of wealth and earnings. The article describes the joint distribution of retirement wealth and lifetime earnings in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. It then evaluates the ability of a stochastic life‐cycle model to account for key features of this distribution. The life‐cycle model fails to account for three key features of the data. (1) The correlation between lifetime earnings and retirement wealth is too high. (2) The wealth gaps between earnings rich and earnings poor households are too large. (3) Wealth inequality among households with similar lifetime earnings is too small. Models in which households differ in rates of return or time preferences account much better for the joint distribution of retirement wealth and lifetime earnings.     

The Consequences of Having a Son on Family Wealth in Urban China

Due to the influence of traditional culture, housing is regarded as a status good and plays an important role in improving male competitiveness in the marriage market in China. Using data from a recent household survey, we find that urban families with a son are more likely to own a house, with a larger size, and at an earlier date. With the booming of the Chinese housing market since the late 1990s as background, having a son thus generates a substantial effect on family wealth through the channel of house ownership. Using the gender of the first‐born child as an instrument, our estimation shows that families with a son have 188 thousand RMB yuan higher housing wealth on average.     

房价对居民消费的跨空间影响*——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

本文首先基于住房财富效应，构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异：不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应，使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后，本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据，通过空间面板杜宾模型，实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异，以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示：（1）虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应，但西部城市财富效应并不显著，并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。（2）不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著，而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。（3）不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后，本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角，为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。     

房价对居民消费的跨空间影响*——基于中国278个城市空间面板数据的实证研究

本文首先基于住房财富效应，构建了房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响的分析框架。该框架阐释了住房财富效应的区域差异：不同地区间房价的空间传导、居民的异地消费以及消费的示范效应，使得本地房价变动可能引起周边地区居民消费的连锁反应。其后，本文利用中国278个地级市2000—2018年数据，通过空间面板杜宾模型，实证考察了不同地区住房财富效应的差异，以及房价变动对居民消费的跨空间影响。结果显示：（1）虽然中国整体上存在住房财富效应，但西部城市财富效应并不显著，并且核心城市还存在负财富效应。（2）不同城市间房价对消费存在跨区影响。东部城市和核心城市对周边城市消费的正向影响很显著，而边缘城市则对周边城市消费有显著的负向影响。（3）不同城市间的消费也具有空间上的示范效应。最后，本文从房价和居民消费空间联动的视角，为政府扩大内需、调控房地产市场提供了相关政策建议。     

How does female labor force participation impact on housing values?

Female labor force participation (FLFP) and household wealth are two main topics of interests to economists for long time. The objective of this study is to investigate the response of housing values, household wealth, to female labor force participation using panel level data in the U.S. states. We develop static and dynamic estimation models using state-level data in the U.S. from 2005 to 2013. The results show the FLFP rate and per capita income have a strong positive effect on housing values, while the number of units per capita has a negative effect on housing values in the state. We find that a 10% increase in FLFP will result in an increase of about 12.5% on housing values. Additionally, increasing per capita income by 10% on average will cause housing values to rise by 9%, however, a 10% rise in the number of units per capita will decrease housing values by 30%. The results assist economists and policy makers in assessing policies to optimize decisions in labor market and housing market.     

THE ACCUMULATION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH OVER THE LIFE-CYCLE: A MICRODATA ANALYSIS*

In this paper, I investigate the validity of the Modigliani-Brumberg (M-B) model as an explanation of the variation of wealth holdings among households. The model as such, even with the inclusion of estimates of household lifetime earnings, explains only a minute portion of the variation in household wealth. Indeed, for certain groups such as non-white, rural residents, and the low educated, the coefficients of the regression model are insignificant. Moreover, when the top wealth holders are removed from the sample and when non-cash financial and business assets are eliminated from the household portfolios, the explanatory power of the M-B model increases markedly. Essentially, the validity of life-cycle wealth accumulation models must be restricted to the white, urban, educated middle classes and their accumulation of housing, durables, and cash. The rich have very different motives for saving and very different sources of saving, while the poor do not earn sufficient income over their lifetime to accumulate any non-negligible wealth.