How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk,intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products

This article examines the dynamic effects of changes in bilateral exchange rates on changes in bilateral trade of bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer‐oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates in both the short and long run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive only in the short run. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes in both the short and long run. For intermediate products, exports and imports are responsive to exchange rate changes in the short run, but not in the long run. It is also found that income of the United States and its trading partners has a significant effect on U.S. exports and imports of the three types of agricultural products in both the short and long run.     

A Holistic vs. an Attribute‐based Approach to Agri‐Environmental Policy Valuation: Do Welfare Estimates Differ?

Different economic valuation methodologies can be used to value the non‐market benefits of an agri‐environmental scheme. In particular, the non‐market value can be examined by assessing the public’s willingness to pay for the policy outputs as a whole or by modelling the preferences of society for the component attributes of the rural landscape that result from the implementation of the policy. In this article we examine whether the welfare values estimated for an agri‐environmental policy are significantly different between an holistic valuation methodology (using contingent valuation) and an attribute‐based valuation methodology (choice experiment). It is argued that the valuation methodology chosen should be based on whether or not the overall objective is the valuation of the agri‐environment policy package in its entirety or the valuation of each of the policy’s distinct environmental outputs.     

What’s next for the Renewable Energy Target – resolving Australia’s integration of energy and climate change policy?*

Australian climate change policy and its integration with Australia’s electricity markets have been fraught for at least two decades. The only enduring policy has been the Commonwealth Renewable Energy Target (RET). Despite the relative success of the RET in driving investment and reducing emissions, state governments have now pivoted towards contracts-for-difference (Cfds). In this article, we outline the issues associated with policy discontinuity and the large-scale RET and review its effectiveness as an emissions reduction tool and driver of electricity sector abatement. We find that the RET has been relatively successful across the key criteria of cost and emissions reductions and is a better policy instrument than contracts-for-difference, which are increasingly being adopted by state governments. Building on the work of Nelson et al. (2020), we propose a new approach, which would allow for continued use of Cfds but utilising the RET’s policy architecture.     

Derivatives for Development? Small‐Farmer Vulnerability and the Financialization of Climate Risk Management

While agricultural production has always been a risky endeavour, it has become even more so in the current context of climatic change and increasing market uncertainty. Meanwhile, the rollback of state protections has rendered small‐scale farmers, especially marginalized peasant producers in the Global South, particularly vulnerable to these contemporary stressors. This essay critically evaluates the contemporary roll‐out of financial derivatives that purportedly aim to mitigate smallholder vulnerability. It gives particular attention to a novel type of derivative known as index‐based agricultural insurance (IBAI) that plays an increasingly prominent role in initiatives to ‘climate proof’ agriculture. The creation of IBAI markets has required significant work, including (1) technical interventions to debundle environmental risk from agricultural production and rebundle it in novel ways that support private financial capital and agricultural input suppliers, (2) extensive state support in the creation of risk markets, and (3) the construction of an accommodating ‘insurance culture’ among small‐scale producers. In addition to mitigating weather‐based risk, a primary objective of IBAI is to spur agricultural modernization. In promoting this agenda, IBAI initiatives may have the paradoxical effect of exposing smallholders to new risks while expanding their overall vulnerability to environmental and economic stressors.     

. Defazio,郭俊Dept. of N

Dr.VaLidity of Family History Data on Primary Adult-Onset DystoniaMartino D./Aniello M.S./Masi G. et al. [Dr. G. Defazio,Dept. of Neurol. and Psychiat. Sci., University of Bari,Piazza Giulio Cesare 11, 1-70124 Bari, Italy]Background: To our knowledge, no study has assessed thevalidity of family hist ory data provided     

2013,看农民的笑脸

<正>北京北京市怀柔区九渡河镇红庙村农民依靠区域旅游资源丰富的优势,在手工艺制作方面深入研发,村民手工制作的产品得到外界的关注。北京市工商局怀柔分局在对全区农民手工艺发展情况进行调研的基础上,为村民登记了第一家手工制作业农民专业合作组织——北京喜庆吉祥灯笼专业合作社。目前,怀柔区九渡河镇的灯笼专业合作组织已由1家增加到7家,成员出资62.25万元,68名出资人带领500多     

Can willingness‐to‐pay values be manipulated? Evidence from an organic food experiment in China

Human behaviors are driven by implicit and explicit motives. Psychologists have developed two main tools, namely time pressure and cognitive load, to disentangle the two motives. This implies values of willingness to pay (WTP) may be sensitive to time pressure and cognitive load levels in practice. An experiment with 233 students was conducted in China to study the willingness to pay for organic food with consideration of different time pressures and cognitive load levels. Results show that (1) increasing cognitive load could significantly reduce consumers’ WTP for organic food; and (2) time pressure does not have a significant impact on WTP values. Such results suggest researchers should be particularly cautious about the cognitive load situations of respondents during a WTP survey.     

Short and long‐run returns to agricultural R&D in South Africa,or will the real rate of return please stand up?

This paper briefly presents the results of a total factor productivity (TFP) study of South African commercial agriculture, for 1947‐1997, and illustrates some potential pitfalls in rate of return to research (ROR) calculations. The lag between R&D and TFP is analyzed and found to be only 9 years, with a pronounced negative skew, reflecting the adaptive focus of the South African system. The two‐stage approach gives a massive ROR of 170%. The predetermined lag parameters are then used in modeling the knowledge stock, to refine the estimates of the ROR from short‐ and long‐run dual profit functions. In the short run, with the capital inputs treated as fixed, the ROR is a more reasonable 44%. In the long run, with adjustment of the capital stocks, it rises to 113%, which would reflect the fact that new technology is embodied in the capital items. However, the long‐run model raises a new problem since capital stock adjustment takes 11 years, 2 years longer than the lag between R&D and TFP. If this is assumed to be the correct lag, the ROR falls to 58%, a best estimate. The paper draws attention to the possible sensitivity of rate of return calculations to assumed lag structure, particularly when the lag between changes in R&D and TFP is skewed.     

Protester or non‐protester: a binary state? On the use (and non‐use) of latent class models to analyse protesting in economic valuation*

In the analysis of stated preferences studies, it is often assumed that protesting is a discretely measured item only occurring among those who are not willing to pay. However, various studies have recently shown that protest beliefs are as well held by respondents who state a positive willingness to pay (WTP). Using latent class (LC) models, we investigate the extent of heterogeneity with respect to protest beliefs among all respondents of two contingent valuation studies. The advantage of LC models is that classes of individuals are endogenously identified and no selection bias is introduced by ad hoc definitions of protesters. Further we investigate whether it is possible to identify a class of non‐protesters. Finding a group of pure non‐protesters could indicate how strongly stated WTP in the whole sample is affected by protest beliefs. For both samples, we find a class with strong protest beliefs but no pure non‐protest class. Overall, our results suggest that LC models might not be the first choice to determine unbiased WTP measures, but they provide valuable insights into the degree of protesting expressed by different groups and corresponding determinants of group membership.     

2010,爱您邀您

牛年即将过去了,不管是遗憾还是喜悦。刚刚过去的这一年,我们经历了很多,也感受了很多,其中有欢喜,有悲伤,有的已经过去,有的仍在继续。风云激荡中,我们迎来新世纪的第一个虎年。《农家之友》祝愿所有新读者、老读者,所有新朋友、老朋友,以及所有关心支持过《农家之友》各界人士:事业如虎添翼,身体生龙活虎,前程虎虎生威!     

2010,爱您邀您

牛年即将过去了,不管是遗憾还是喜悦。刚刚过去的这一年,我们经历了很多,也感受了很多,其中有欢喜,有悲伤,有的已经过去,有的仍在继续。风云激荡中,我们迎来新世纪的第一个虎年。《农家之友》祝愿所有新读者、老读者,所有新朋友、老朋友,以及所有关心支持过《农家之友》各界人士:事业如虎添翼,身体生龙活虎,前程虎虎生威!     

Measuring the risk attitude of decision‐makers: are there differences between groups of methods and persons?

Many studies quantifying individual risk preferences of test persons show that results of different measuring methods may vary. Additional reservations about the reliability of the results regarding the risk attitude measurement arise from the fact that most studies are based on convenience groups, such as students or businessmen in developing countries. With this in mind, we systematically compare different measuring methods to answer the question how the choice of method affects the results. Moreover, we compare the risk preferences of German farmers with those of students and Kazakhstani farmers to investigate whether farmers’ risk preferences can be approximated through those of convenience groups. The methods applied comprise an incentive‐compatible Holt‐and‐Laury‐lottery as well as two psychometric methods. Results show that students respond consistently across all three elicitation methods whereas German and Kazakhstani farmers are more inconsistent. Significant differences exist in the responses of German students and German farmers. The comparison of risk preferences between German and Kazakhstani farmers, however, reveals significant similarities with respect to the psychometric methods.     

2013,且看四大土地政策导向

2012年底召开的中央经济工作会议提出,做好2013年经济工作,要以提高经济增长质量和效益为中心,继续把握好稳中求进的工作总基调,开拓创新,扎实开局.现结合中央经济工作会议确定的六大主要任务,提出2013年土地资源管理的四大政策导向.     

Does It Matter Who Verifies Production‐Derived Quality?

Food quality attributes arising from farming methods are of increasing interest to many Canadians, examples include environmentally sustainable production practices, humane animal treatment, organic, etc. The credence nature of these attributes necessitates some form of quality assurance to provide credible signals to consumers that these attributes are present. This paper examines trust in private, third‐party, and government organizations to provide credible quality signals for attributes that derive from on‐farm production methods, or “production‐derived” quality attributes. A nationwide survey reveals that farmer, third‐party, and government organizations are similarly trusted to provide accurate information about farming methods, while government standards relating to environmental sustainability were perceived as most effective. Data from a discrete choice experiment are used to explore attitudes toward pesticide‐free and environmentally sustainable quality claims in a bread product, and in particular whether it matters who verifies those quality claims. Results obtained using a latent class multinomial logit model reveal a distinct pattern of heterogeneity in consumer attitudes toward production‐derived quality attributes and toward the verification of those attributes. Those respondents who most value production‐derived food quality also receive the highest utility from government verification and significant negative utility from supermarket or third‐party verification. This segment of Canadian consumers has a clear preference for a more proactive government role in facilitating credible quality assurances for production‐derived quality attributes. In contrast, the source of quality verification was far less important to those consumers holding weaker preferences for production‐derived quality. Les attributs de qualité des aliments liés aux pratiques agricoles, telles que les pratiques de production écologiquement viable, le traitement sans cruauté des animaux, l’agriculture biologique, etc., intéressent de plus en plus de nombreux Canadiens. Comme ces attributs reposent sur la croyance des consommateurs, une certaine forme d’assurance de la qualité est nécessaire pour envoyer aux consommateurs des signaux crédibles sur la présence de ces attributs. Le présent article examine la confiance dans la capacité des organismes privés, des tierces organisations et des organismes gouvernementaux à fournir des signaux de qualité crédibles pour des attributs liés aux pratiques de production à la ferme, c’est‐à‐dire des attributs de qualité dérivés de la production. Dans un sondage pancanadien, les producteurs agricoles, les tierces parties et les organismes gouvernementaux ont obtenu un degré de confiance similaire dans leur capacitéà fournir de l’information précise sur les pratiques agricoles, tandis que les normes gouvernementales visant à assurer la viabilité de l’environnement ont été perçues comme étant les moyens les plus efficaces. Nous avons utilisé des données tirées de la méthode des choix discrets pour analyser les points de vue concernant les allégations de qualité«sans pesticides et production écologiquement viable» accordées à un produit panifié et pour déterminer si le type d’organisme chargé de vérifier ces allégations revêt une importance ou non. Les résultats obtenus à l’aide d’un modèle logit multinomial à classes latentes ont révélé une hétérogénéité marquée des points de vue des consommateurs concernant les attributs de qualité dérivés de la production et la vérification de ces attributs. Les répondants qui appréciaient le plus les attributs de qualité dérivés de la production ont également indiqué qu’ils retiraient la plus grande utilité de la vérification effectuée par un organisme gouvernemental et une utilité significativement négative de la vérification effectuée par des supermarchés et des tierces organisations. Ce segment de consommateurs canadiens a montré une préférence marquée en faveur d’un rôle plus proactif du gouvernement pour donner une assurance crédible des attributs de qualité dérivés de la production. En revanche, le type d’organisme chargé de la vérification de la qualité avait une moindre importance pour les consommateurs qui ont montré de faibles préférences pour la qualité dérivée de la production.     

Can satellite‐based weather index insurance improve the hedging of yield risk of perennial non‐irrigated olive trees in Spain?*

Olive oil yields fluctuate strongly due to their dependence on sufficient precipitation. An interesting option to hedge the yield risk in olive cultivation could be satellite‐based weather index insurance. Therefore, we implement index insurance as a hedging alternative for non‐irrigated olive groves using MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. For this purpose, we focus on the Spanish region of Andalusia, given its importance in olive production at the international level. We calculate three satellite indices: the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), the Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and the Vegetation Health Index (VHI). Meteorological indices related to temperature and precipitation are used as benchmarks. Firstly, we estimate the periods that have the greatest influence on the critical vegetative phase of olives, which extends from March to September. Based on the indices, insurance contracts are designed using a copula approach, which is then employed to evaluate their hedging effectiveness. On average, the hedging effectiveness of VCI‐, VHI‐ and TCI‐based weather index insurance contracts amounts to 38 per cent, 38 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively. Moreover, VCI‐ and VHI‐based weather index insurance contracts outperform traditional weather index insurance contracts based on precipitation (by 29 per cent) and temperature (by 16 per cent) indices.     

Who Owns Guaraná? Legal Strategies,Development Policies and Agricultural Practices in Brazilian Amazonia

This paper offers a historical perspective on the interactions between legal standards and agricultural practices relating to guaraná, an energy‐inducing Amazonian plant that is in increasing demand. Guaraná is managed in a number of socio‐technical contexts, ranging from the fizzy drink industry to alternative agro‐ecological farming systems, and is subject to a great many legal rules that determine the conditions for its use and appropriation. The paper shows how, in guaraná's native region of Maués, Brazilian Amazonia, various stakeholders including the indigenous population, associations of smallholdings and multinationals use legal standards in order to gain prerogatives over the plant and/or win a share of a growing market. In spite of the fact that the plant has been domesticated by the Sateré‐Mawé and that traditional knowledge has been recognized in Brazil, to a certain extent history has dispossessed them of their rights to guaraná. New political and economic circumstances have favoured those actors committed to strategies of agricultural modernization and industrial processing. On the other hand, the ecologization of agriculture and the increasing numbers of instruments for differentiating production (such as fair trade, organic farming and geographical indications) seem to be favouring diversification in the methods of managing guaraná, as well as a certain re‐appropriation of the plant by local communities.     

Do wheat futures returns exhibit long‐range dependence?

The efficient market hypothesis, where asset prices follow a random walk and incorporate all relevant information, is often invoked in financial economics. There is some evidence however to suggest that some asset prices do not follow random walks but display long‐range dependence. Such systematic behavior of past returns is of interest to traders. This article examines long‐range dependence in wheat futures prices using rescaled range analysis and the Hurst exponent. Since this estimate is biased when long‐range dependence is absent and its distribution is unknown, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed. Results show that wheat futures prices show no evidence of long‐range dependence and there are no profitable trading rules.