新资本协议在中国银行业的应用路径研究

新资本协议是国际银行业关于资本监管和风险管理的理论和实践总结。国内商业银行实施新资本协议的基本出发点是适应境内外监管需要,根本目的在于提升风险管理能力,转变经营管理模式,追求科学、健康、可持续发展。这一过程的关键难点是遵照一定原则将风险计量模型转化为经营管理工具。本文从新资本协议与现代商业银行经营管理理念之间的联系出发,结合新资本协议应用的监管要求,提出了以风险偏好传导为主线的新资本协议应用框架,并对利用新资本协议管理工具服务于商业银行经营转型进行了探索。     

从风险资本理论透视商业银行表外业务风险控制

本文以风险资本理论为切入点,在对我国商业银行表外业务与风险资本理论的相关性分析的基础上,进一步探讨我国商业银行表外业务风险管理,并有的放矢地提出促进和发展我国商业银行表外业务风险管理的相关建议。     

经济资本在我国银行资产管理中的运用

构建以经济资本管理为核心的现代商业银行管理模式,是近年来国内外银行业努力探索与积极实践的一项基本内容,也是我国商业银行改革与发展的方向。经济资本管理作为一种先进的资本管理方法,科学地实现了资本和风险的整合,一定程度上已成为国际银行业管理的基础和主轴。本文分别从资产规模、资产质量和产品定价的角度加以分析,介绍了经济资本管理在我国商业银行的实际运用。     

信用集中风险研究新进展

历史经验显示,信用集中风险是造成银行危机的一个主要原因,因此,在目前我国信贷快速膨胀、信用集中风险显著加剧的背景下,急需加强对我国商业银行信用集中风险的研究.然而,目前国内研究仍停留于定性分析阶段.鉴于此,本文从信用集中风险的监管要求,信用集中风险测量的理论分析和实证研究三方面对国外信用集中风险及经济资本测度模型的研究进行了述评,以期为提高我国商业银行信用集中风险的测量水平,构建与BasPl Ⅱ一致条件下的经济资本测度模型,从而为提高我国商业银行的信用风险管理能力提供一定的参考.     

基于风险-收益均衡控制的信用风险管理研究

风险—收益均衡是风险和收益同时实现最优的一个状态。风险优化是风险—收益均衡控制的具体过程。我国商业银行正处于财务目标和风险目标约束同时增强的风险管理制度转型阶段,制度转型的方向是改革单向风险管理制度,建立风险—收益均衡控制的信用风险管理制度。本文以《巴塞尔新资本协议》框架下的信用风险计量、经济资本和风险优化理论为指导,探讨在缺乏有效资本管理制度条件下,如何建立基于风险—收益均衡控制的过渡性信用风险管理模式,重点研究了RAROC风险管理思想和风险控制技术,并展开了实证分析。RAROC修正模型与过渡方案具有可行性,并有很强的信贷政策指向意义。     

标准法替代法计量我国商业银行操作风险资本的分析

2006年12月,中国银监会发布了《商业银行操作风险资本计量操作指引》（征求意见稿）,标志着我国商业银行操作风险计量的开端。本文在对比三种操作风险度量方法的基础上,结合我国的实际,运用中国银行股份有限公司的实例,探讨标准法替代形式在我国商业银行操作风险资本计量中的应用。     

标准法替代法计量我国商业银行操作风险资本的分析

2006年12月,中国银监会发布了《商业银行操作风险资本计量操作指引》(征求意见稿),标志着我国商业银行操作风险计量的开端。本文在对比三种操作风险度量方法的基础上,结合我国的实际,运用中国银行股份有限公司的实例,探讨标准法替代形式在我国商业银行操作风险资本计量中的应用。     

对商业银行经济资本管理问题的思考

随着近几年,我国经济的快速增长,资本管理这个词语逐渐出现在各大财经报刊的头版头条,资本管理,即一种有效的风险资本管理方式,它基于银行全部风险之上的资本,是商业银行经营管理中的一个新名词。目前,我国商业银行的经济资本管理起步相对较晚,在如今的市场竞争下,备受挑战和压力。本文将详细介绍商业银行中经济资本管理问题以及现阶段我国商业银行经济资本管理的现状,通过现状发现问题,从而提出相应的解决措施,为日后商业银行经济资本管理的研究提供一定的理论基础。     

基于资本充足率要求的我国商业银行风险控制有效性研究

资本充足率作为《巴塞尔协议》的重要组成部分,一直以来就是各国商业银行监管工作的重点,2008年全球金融危机的爆发更是将更多的目光吸引至此。应用面板数据模型测度我国资本充足率要求对商业银行风险控制有效性的实证研究结果表明,我国商业银行资本充足率的限制具有降低银行外部风险、增强商业银行内部稳定性的功能。应建立一种显性的存款保险制度来规范我国商业银行的救助机制,与资本充足率监管一起形成维护我国商业银行稳定的"安全网"。     

基于风险——收益均衡控制的信用风险管理研究

风险-收益均衡是风险和收益同时实现最优的一个状态。风险优化是风险-收益均衡控制的具体过程。我国商业银行正处于财务目标和风险目标约束同时增强的风险管理制度转型阶段，制度转型的方向是改革单向风险管理制度，建立风险-收益均衡控制的信用风险管理制度。本文以《巴塞尔新资本协议》框架下的信用风险计量、经济资本和风险优化理论为指导，探讨在缺乏有效资本管理制度条件下，如何建立基于风险-收益均衡控制的过渡，陆信用风险管理模式，重点研究了RAROC风险管理思想和风险控制技术，并展开了实证分析。RAROC修正模型与过渡方案具有可行性，并有很强的信贷政策指向意义。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.