Social Security,Unemployment, and Growth

The paper develops an overlapping generations model that highlights interactions between social security, unemployment and growth. The social security system has two components: old age pensions and unemployment insurance. Pensions have a direct effect on economic growth. Both pensions and unemployment benefits influence equilibrium unemployment caused by wage bargaining. Since unemployment deteriorates growth, both types of social security have an indirect negative effect on growth.JEL Code: E24, H55, J51     

Social security, life insurance and annuities for families

In this paper we ask whether an aspect of social security, namely its role as a provider of insurance against uncertain life spans, is welfare enhancing. To this end we use an OLG model where agents have a bequest motive and differ in sex and marital status and where families are formed and destroyed and their characteristics evolve (exogenously) according to U.S. demographic patterns of marriage, divorce, fertility and mortality. We compare the implications of social security under a variety of market structures that differ in the extent to which life insurance and annuities are available. We find that social security is a bad idea. In economies where the private sector provides annuities and life insurance, it is a bad idea for the standard reason that it distorts the intertemporal margin by lowering the capital stock. In the absence of such securities social security is still a very bad idea, only marginally less so compared with economies with annuities and life insurance. We also explore these issues in a world where people live longer and we find no differences in our answers. As a by-product of our analysis we find that the existence of life insurance opportunities for people is important in welfare terms while that of annuities is not.     

收入差距、社会保障与提升居民幸福感和获得感

中国经济增长存在“Easterlin悖论”。如何破解悖论,是当下学术研究重点关注的问题,也是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想的核心要义。利用中国家庭综合调查数据,在Ordered Probit和OLS模型构建的基础上,阐述了收入差距、社会保障与居民幸福感和获得感提升之间相互影响的机理及机制。结果表明:收入差距与居民幸福感和获得感之间呈“倒U型”关系;社会保障在提升居民幸福感和获得感方面表现突出。通过机理分析可知,收入差距过大形成的不公平感降低了幸福感和获得感,而社会保障既能通过提高居民消费水平与健康水平来提升幸福感和获得感,也能够通过提高公平感来缓解收入差距给幸福感和获得感带来的负面影响。因此,维护收入分配的公平性,降低居民对社会风险的担忧程度,提升防范与应对风险的能力是提高居民幸福感和获得感的重要举措。     

构建和谐社会 改革社会保障统计

社会保障与和谐社会的正相关关系,决定了在构建社会主义和谐社会的过程中必须高度重视社会保障统计建设.因此,建议从以下几方面来改革和完善社会保障统计体系:建立社会保障统计风险控制机制和预警机制;构建科学的社会保障统计指标体系;建立既与国际接轨又具有中国特色的统计标准体系;改革统计调查方法,推进信息化建设;强化社会保障统计分析,等等.     

我国新农保运作机制及改进方案探析

随着我国老龄化趋势的加剧和工业化、城镇化进程的推进,农村社会自给自足的养老模式已经无法适应经济社会发展的需要,建立和完善社会养老保险制度已势在必行。本文回顾了我国农村社会养老保险的发展历程,分析了农村社会养老保险的管理与运作状况,从政府和社会保障机构、商业人寿保险公司、其他服务供应商等角度,分析研究了我国新型农村社会养...     

社会保障运行效率评价指标体系构建及应用

社会保障的高效运作对于新时期下我国全面深化改革有着非同寻常的意义,文章在充分理解社会保障运作的基础上构建包括5个一级指标和17个二级指标的社会保障运行效率评价指标体系。文章用AHP法对评价指标赋以权重,以我国2007年至2012年社会保障省级数据面板为样本得出分地区社会保障水平的排序,使用随机前沿边界分析对得出的结论加以验证。     

The future of social security

We analyze the effect of the projected demographic transition on the political support for social security, and equilibrium outcomes. Embedding a probabilistic-voting setup of electoral competition in the standard OLG model with capital accumulation, we find that intergenerational transfers arise in the absence of altruism, commitment, or trigger strategies. Closed-form solutions predict population ageing to lead to higher social security tax rates, a rising share of pensions in GDP, but eventually lower social security benefits per retiree. The response of equilibrium tax rates to demographic shocks reduces old-age consumption risk. Calibrated to match features of the U.S. economy, the model suggests that, in response to the projected demographic transition, social security tax rates will gradually increase to 16%. Other policies that distort labor supply will become less important; labor supply therefore will rise, in contrast with frequently voiced fears.     

财政分权、社会保障支出与城乡居民收入差距的实证分析

基于1998～2012年各省的面板数据,利用动态广义矩(GMM)和面板门槛模型实证分析财政分权、社会保障支出对城乡收入差距的影响,结果显示:由于中国城乡二元经济的特殊性,财政分权、人均社会保障支出与城乡居民收入差距均成正相关性.但社会保障支出对城乡收入差距的影响存在基于财政分权的双门槛效应,当财政分权水平较低时,社会保障支出的增加加剧了城乡收入差距;当财政分权高于一定水平时,社会保障支出有助于缩小城乡收入差距.     

Public capital, public pension, and growth

This paper constructs an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations, whose engine of economic growth is productive public capital. We investigate a public policy under which the government allocates tax revenue between investment in public capital accumulation and public pension provision. We show that increasing the share of spending on public pensions always reduces economic growth. However, we show numerically that public pension provision improves social welfare and there exists an optimal share of spending on public pension provision unless the value of the time discount factor of the government is sufficiently high. Moreover, we show that in an economy facing an aging population, an increase in social security provision for the old rather than an increase in public investment can be preferable from the viewpoint of social welfare.     

山西省基本社会保障城乡一体化的思考

基本社会保障城乡一体化不仅是山西省国家综改试验区建设面临的问题,也是全国各省区面临的共同问题.本文在界定基本社会保障城乡一体化的基础上,构建了山西省基本社会保障城乡一体化的制度模式,测算了山西省基本社会保障城乡一体化的资金需求与供给,分析了山西省基本社会保障城乡一体化面临的矛盾与问题,提出了山西省基本社会保障城乡一体化的实现途径、步骤、任务与战略措施.     

国有资本收入对养老保险的划拨率研究

本文试图建立一个基于中国特殊国情基础之上的关于国有资本收入划拨社会保障制度的研究框架,对我国国有资本收入如何与社会保障制度进行联系提供理性分析框架,并提出建设性的意见。本文将国有资本收入转移到养老保险制度的比例定义为划拨率,对于这个划拨率的最优选择问题就是本文研究的重点。通过构建一般均衡模型。研究发现在一定的条件下,随着划拨率的不断提高,以总消费为代表的社会福利水平出现先增长后下降的趋势,这预示存在着使社会福利极大的最优的划拨率水平。     

我国区域社会保障与商业保险协调度研究

本文构建了社会保障与商业保险协调度模型,定量研究了社会保障与商业保险的关系,并对模型进行了改进。结果显示:2005年~2010年我国绝大多数省份的协调等级都处于勉强协调和濒临失调的过渡区间,只有北京、山西、辽宁、上海和重庆在最近几年基本达到了初级协调,并且大部分省市的滞后类型为商业保险滞后型。基于上述分析,本文提出了促进社会保障与商业保险进一步协调发展的相关建议。     

少数民族地区残疾人社会保障体系和服务体系建设满意度及影响因素分析——基于新疆维吾尔自治区的调查

随着社会经济的发展,少数民族地区残疾人社会保障体系和服务体系建设日益引起人们的重视。本文以新疆为例,在采用因子分析法评估残疾人对社会保障体系和服务体系建设满意度的基础上,运用二元Logistic模型分析了影响残疾人对社会保障体系和服务体系建设满意度的主要因素,并据此提出了推进民族地区残疾人社会保障体系和服务体系建设的可行性建议。     

Welfare reform and devolution: issues of parity,discretion and divergence for the UK government and the devolved administrations

The impact of devolution in the UK on social security is examined in the context of the major powers in the area continuing to be exercised by the Westminster government. Developments and principles involved are described in three perspectives and phases. First, the established model of parity with minor adjustments. Second, parity with enhanced discretion associated with the introduction of welfare reforms. Third, the prospect of the future transformation of the parity principle with increased focus on greater fiscal responsibility and greater devolution and divergence in social security, and with the additional context of the referendum on independence for Scotland. Also discussed are the implications of either a ‘yes’ or ‘no’ vote in the Scottish referendum.     

Under threat. Lay thinking about terrorism and the three‐dimensional model of personal involvement: a social psychological analysis

Global ‘standards’ in social security are set by the UN Specialist Agency, the International Labour Organization (ILO). The ILO ‘Standards’ prioritize one model of social security system in particular; namely, contributions‐financed social insurance. Specifically, social insurance systems are designed to mitigate the negative impacts of formal labour market risks. Accordingly, social security systems typically fail to address adequately many informal labour market and nonlabour market risks. The inherently limited focus of social protection provided by many social security systems is recognized to be of major concern for least developed countries (LDCs) in particular for whom western‐centric definitions of life‐cycle risk remain largely inappropriate for the majority. This realization has led the World Bank to experiment with a reconceptualized definition of social protection; Social Risk Management (SRM). Seeking to encourage wider debate across the multidisciplinary field of risk management research, this article outlines critically the tenets underpinning SRM and highlights the policy limitations of this innovative World Bank venture in two key respects. First, by outlining the likely policy implications of World Bank approaches to social protection for global social security standards and practice. Second, by questioning the short‐term contribution that SRM can make to poverty reduction, not least amongst the elderly poor.     

社会保障税:优化社会保障筹资模式的最佳选择

由于我国社会保险面临转轨成本、资金缺口和人口老龄化等三重压力,因此,通过依照职工工资总额征收养老保险金、失业保险金、医疗保险金、工伤保险金及生育保险金的方式所筹集的社会保障基金难以满足支出的需求。建议尽快由依靠企业统筹社会保障基金收费过渡到依靠税务机关征收社会保障税,以法律手段取代行政手段。这既是建立稳定的社会保障基金筹资机制、保证社会保障基金稳定来源的必需,也是适应社会主义市场经济发展需要、优化社会保障筹资模式的最佳选择。     

新型农村社会养老保险制度探究

新型农村社会养老保险制度目前全国尚没有一个统一的模式,仍处于试点探索阶段,也是目前社会保障关注的热点问题。建立新型农村社会保险制度（以下简称“新农保”）工作已列入2009年“两会”政府工作报告中社会保障工作的重要内容,并要求全国各地开展新农保工作的试点市县不少于10％。《新型农村社会养老保险制度探究》之选题,旨在根据全国各地新农保工作的先进经验和做法,结合当地新农保工作的开展情况,分析新农保工作的现状与问题,为建立和完善我国新型农村社会养老保险制度提出建议。     

Simulating alternative social security responses to the demographic transition

"This paper uses a perfect foresight life cycle simulation model to examine the dynamic economic effects of baby 'booms' and baby 'busts' as well as the interaction of such demographic changes with social security policy. Demographic change can have sizeable short and long-run effects on saving rates and factors returns." The geographic focus is on the United States. "The model predicts long-run improvement in welfare associated with a prolonged baby bust. This improvement holds even in the absence of accommodating social security policy. It reflects a long-run decline in the dependency ratio, with the reduction in dependent children per worker more than offsetting the increase in retirees per worker."     

浙江省残疾人托养照料模式：评估、比较与展望

残疾人托养照料是社会保障和社会工作的重要内容。在全国大力推进残疾人社会托养照料起步阶段,浙江省探索走出了残疾人托养照料模式,在回顾这一模式形成与实施的基础上,开展了浙江省残疾人托养照料模式评估,对浙江与上海、北京、江苏、福建、广州等地残疾人托养照料模式进行比较,最后从对策建议的角度提出了展望。     

社会保障金保工程的公共服务与实现机制

建立与完善社会保障制度,一个重要的任务是以高效的信息管理为依托,降低社会保障管理的行政成本,提高社会保障的服务绩效,建立社会保障受益人的信息服务体系。我国社会保障制度正在逐步完善,社会保障金保工程正在建设之中,以政府为主导的社会保障公共服务意识还有待加强,提高社会保障管理的透明度与执行力。