Growth and Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Investment

In this paper we analyze growth and welfare effects of fiscal policy in an endogenous growth model along the balanced growth path. As to the model we assume that sustained per capita growth results from public investment. The government uses its tax revenue for investment in public capital, for investment subsidy and for transfer payments. We then analyze how the balanced growth rate reacts to variations in those policy variables. Further, we study welfare effects of varying the fiscal parameters and demonstrate that, in general, maximizing economic growth is not equivalent to maximizing welfare on the balanced growth path.     

内生增长理论对政府公共支出与经济增长关系的解释——来自中国1952—2011年的经验证据

本文基于内生增长理论（Endogenous Growth Theory）分析政府公共支出与经济增长的关系。基于Barro（1990）提出的框架,但采用Arrowand Kutz（1970）提出的方法,将公共投资通过直接资本形成增加资本存量,形成内生经济增长,并采用Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans（1965）模型的基本假设,利用1952—2011年中国时间序列数据对影响经济增长的因素进行检验。结果显示：政府公共物质资本投入及政府人力资本投入对经济增长均具有正效应,但政府公共物质资本投入对经济增长的效应微弱,而政府人力资本投入对经济增长的效应较大。同时还验证了政府物质资本投入并不是经济增长的格兰杰原因（Granger Cause）,而政府人力资本投资是经济增长的格兰杰原因（Granger Cause）,且影响滞后并持久,教育投入对中国经济增长的影响是长期渗透的。     

Public and Private Pension Spending: Principles,Practice and the Need for Reform

This paper surveys the issue of public spending on pensions. Drawing on evidence from systems around the world, but particularly in Britain, we outline the arguments for different types of public and private provision of pension income and consider how far they go towards meeting the objectives of pension provision. We discuss past trends in spending and look at future projections.     

Government investment and fiscal stimulus

Effects of government investment are studied in an estimated neoclassical growth model. The analysis focuses on two dimensions that are critical for understanding government investment as a fiscal stimulus: implementation delays for building public capital and expected fiscal adjustments to deficit-financed spending. Implementation delays can produce small or even negative labor and output responses to increases in government investment in the short run. Anticipated fiscal adjustments matter both quantitatively and qualitatively for long-run growth effects. When public capital is insufficiently productive, distorting financing can make government investment contractionary at longer horizons.     

基于行业差异的企业年金最优个人缴费率研究

借助于两期叠代模型,构建个人效用函数以及政府社会福利函数,测算满足个人生命周期效用最大化和社会福利最大化的最优企业年金个人缴费率.研究表明:全社会最优的年金个人缴费率为6.40％,当前费率水平还有较大提升空间;按各行业最优缴费率征缴年金费用,可以提高年金制度的养老保障程度;把过剩的年金缴费能力转移给个人账户,可以实现帕累托优化效果;给予年金个人缴费5％的税收优惠,可以鼓励和加快年金制度发展.     

人口老龄化、养老保险基金缺口弥补与经济增长

本文构建一个包含财政支出和公共债务的世代交叠模型,以养老保险基金缺口弥补为核心内容,考察人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,并探讨采用何种基金缺口弥补方式更有利于促进经济增长。研究发现,若采用财政补贴方式弥补基金缺口,生存概率上升和生育率下降均提高经济增速;若采用发行公债方式或两者兼用方式弥补基金缺口,当人力资本产出弹性较小时相应结论不变,反之则经济增速随生存概率上升呈倒U型变化趋势,随生育率下降而提高。基金缺口弥补方式是影响经济增长的重要制度因素,人力资本产出弹性较小时发行公债方式下的经济增速最高,反之则为财政补贴方式。结合我国现实,本文认为政府应探索包括发行公债在内的多种基金缺口弥补方式以更好地应对人口老龄化,实现经济长期较快增长。     

行政区划壁垒、边界地区公共品提供与经济发展

行政区划壁垒是阻碍区域协调发展的重要因素。本文首先分析了行政区划壁垒对省际交界地带经济发展可能产生的两种效应——边界跳跃效应和边界洼地效应,接着利用栅格级别夜间灯光亮度和公共品提供数据,对两种效应进行检验。结果显示:第一,省际交界地带不存在显著的边界跳跃效应,紧邻省界两侧的地带在经济发展和公共品提供水平上都高度接近;第二,省际交界地带存在明显的边界洼地效应,越靠近省界的地区,经济发展和公共品提供水平越滞后,这一效应在距离省界20公里的范围内尤为明显。边界洼地效应的存在导致省内核心地带的经济发展难以辐射到边界地带,也可以作为边界跳跃效应不存在的原因。本文研究表明,进一步打破传统的以行政区划为界线的分割式治理体系,不仅有助于促进区域协调与平衡发展,也有助于畅通国内大循环、构建新发展格局。     

Political-economy of pension plans: Impact of institutions,gender, and culture

National pension systems are an important part of financial intermediation and worker welfare in most countries, but how and why do they differ internationally? Controlling for important political, economic and social institutions, we document that international differences in pension progressivity, or how pensions reflect lifetime earnings, are negatively related to masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, long-term orientation, employment rights, average pension levels, social trust and economic inequality. We also find that pension progressivity is positively related to the economic and societal role of women, the extent of Catholicism; as well as political voice and accountability. These results provide important insights for both public policy and MNC managers.     

The determinants of venture capital funding: evidence across countries

This paper analyses the determinants of venture capital for a sample of 21 countries. In particular, we consider the importance of initial public offerings (IPOs), gross domestic product (GDP) and market capitalization growth, labor market rigidities, accounting standards, private pension funds, and government programs. We find that IPOs are the strongest driver of venture capital investing. Private pension fund levels are a significant determinant over time but not across countries. Surprisingly, GDP and market capitalization growth are not significant. Government policies can have a strong impact, both by setting the regulatory stage, and by galvanizing investment during downturns. Finally, we also show that different types of venture capital financing are affected differently by these factors. In particular, early stage venture capital investing is negatively impacted by labor market rigidities, while later stage is not. IPOs have no effect on early stage venture capital investing across countries, but are a significant determinant of later stage venture capital investing across countries. Finally, government funded venture capital has different sensitivities to the determinants of venture capital than non-government funded venture capital. Our insights emphasize the need for a more differentiated approach to venture capital, both from a research as well as from a policy perspective. We feel that while later stage venture capital investing is well understood, early stage and government funded investments still require more extensive research.     

风险分散与中国混合型基本养老保险制度改革研究

本文从参保人养老投资风险分散角度研究混合型基本养老保险制度设计。通过构建一个两期消费模型,综合考虑参保人所面临的人口结构、工资增长率、养老基金投资等风险因素,本文研究了混合型基本养老保险制度中现收现付制与基金积累制的最优比例,并利用中国数据进行了测算与敏感性分析。研究发现:引入小规模个人账户基金积累制可以分散人口老龄化给现收现付制所带来的风险,中国实行混合型基本养老保险制度有其合理性;但如果要维持40%～45%的养老金替代率水平,中国基本养老保险制度的财务可持续性会面临较大挑战。     

The Effects of Social Spending on Economic Activity: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries*

The aim of this paper is to assess the short‐term effects of social spending on economic activity. Using a panel of OECD countries from 1980 to 2005, the results show that social spending has expansionary effects on GDP. In particular, we find that an increase of 1 per cent in social spending increases GDP by about 0.1 percentage points, which, given the share of social spending in GDP, corresponds to a multiplier of about 0.6. The effect is similar to that of total government spending, and it is larger in periods of severe downturns. Among spending subcategories, social spending on health and on unemployment benefits have the greatest effects. Social spending also positively affects private consumption, while it has negligible effects on investment. The empirical results are economically and statistically significant, and robust.     

欧洲债务危机与社会养老保障的国家特征及中国借鉴

欧洲政府债务比重长期偏高的国家表现出高社会保障和福利支出比重、高社会养老保障支出比重、高公共养老金替代率和再分配功能偏低的"三高一低"特征,而这在很大程度上源于社会养老保障及其改革的刚性。因此,中国应该从长经济周期的视角来协调保障与经济发展的关系,当前社会保障建设则要适当滞后于经济发展,同时,建立多层次的退休金支付结构,强化基础养老金"保基本"的横向再分配功能,并构建养老金关键参数的弹性调整机制。     

我国国有森工企业融资分析

我国经营开发国有林的主体是具有特殊的政企合一体制特征的国有森工企业,其以森林资源为主要经营对象,经营的既是一项产业,又是一项社会公益事业,兼有经济效益、生态效益和社会效益目标。资本是国有森工企业生产经营的经济基础,一直以来其资本的主要来源是依靠政府的投资和配套政策的支持以及国有银行的金融信贷,而近年来资本市场等融资方式也逐渐被我国国有森工企业所采用。     

环境税率、双重红利与经济增长

本文构建了一个包含环境税、污染存量和预期寿命的世代交替模型,研究环境税对环境红利和经济发展红利的影响。基于新古典增长模型的研究表明,环境税能够实现双重红利(环境红利和经济发展红利),这契合“绿水青山就是金山银山”的绿色发展理念。从传导机制看,环境税通过负收入效应使得资本积累下降,同时,环境税通过健康效应使得预期寿命延长,这又使得资本积累增加。环境税通过影响资本积累,进而影响环境质量和经济发展。此外,环境税率上升使得用于环境治理的政府支出增加,这使得经济更容易产生环境红利。基于内生增长框架的分析表明,环境税有助于摆脱“环境贫困陷阱”,这为解释国家之间的收入差距提供了一个参考机制。数值模拟结果显示,在新古典增长框架和内生增长框架下,均存在最优的环境税率可以极大化人均产出和经济增长率。本文认为,合理的环境税率有助于推进减污降碳协同治理。     

Die prämienbegünstigte Zukunftsvorsorge in Österreich

Due to the predictable demographic developments and the budgetary restrictions in the Stability Pact of the Treaty of Maastricht the big pay-as-you-go public sector pension systems in many western European countries seem to have reached their limits. Since 2003 the Austrian government has put its trust in strengthening the third pillar of the pension system and supports private provision with state-aided premiums. In this paper this state-aided private provision system with its capital guarantee is presented, evaluated and analyzed. Moreover we point out the dilemma of this pension provision product: in the case of low asset returns the state premiums will be eroded by the expenses of the issuers. Furthermore it will be clarified that the issuers, in contrast to the clients, have no interest in investing in volatile assets since in that case the probability of exercising the capital guarantee will increase.     

Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings

In the last century, most countries have experienced both an increase in pension spending and a decline in fertility. We argue that the interplay of pension generosity and development of capital markets is crucial to understand fertility decisions. Since children have traditionally represented for parents a form of retirement saving, particularly in economies with limited or nonexistent capital markets, an exogenous increase of pension spending provides a saving technology alternative to children, thus relaxing financial (saving) constraints and reducing fertility. We build a simple two-period OLG model to show that an increase in pensions is associated with a larger decrease in fertility in countries in which individuals have less access to financial markets. Cross-country regression analysis supports our result: an interaction between various measures of pension generosity and a proxy for the development of financial markets consistently enters the regressions positively and significantly, suggesting that in economies with limited financial markets, children represent a (if not the only) way for parents to save for old age, and that increases in pensions amount effectively to relaxing these constraints.     

Immigration and the pattern of public spending: evidence from OECD countries

Using a panel of OECD countries, we show that immigration systematically alters the composition of public spending in the destination country. To mitigate bias from the endogenous sorting of immigrants, we use an IV estimation strategy. The instrument is constructed by estimating a bilateral migration model for 24 destination and 208 source countries. We find that the host country responds to the increase in immigrants by adjusting various expenditures, such as by reallocating resources from social welfare to national defense and public order. Our findings imply that (1) immigration affects policy outcomes in areas with a low ethnic or redistributive dimension and (2) immigration may have an insubstantial effect on the total size of government.

     

农村人力资本投资结构与内生经济增长

本文从理论上构建了农村人力资本投资结构(包括私人和公共)对农村经济增长影响的模型,运用我国四大经济地区面板数据分析了农村私人和公共教育投资与健康投资对人力资本增量的促进作用,以及人力资本增量对农村经济增长的内在影响并加以检验。结果主要表明:农村人力资本投资结构对人力资本增量,人力资本增量对农村经济增长都具有一定的正向作用;农村私人和公共人力资本投资相对强调了教育投资而轻视了健康投资;私人人力资本投资产出效率高于公共人力资本投资产出效率;四大地区农村人力资本投资额与结构都存在较为明显的差距。     

社会养老保险福利效应研究述评

提高国民福利是政府建立社会养老保险的最终目标。国外研究主要运用一般均衡方法构建代际交叠模型,从养老保险收入分配功能及其对经济增长(储蓄率和资本积累)的影响两个角度对不同养老保险模式的福利效应进行综合研究,研究成果十分丰富。然而,国内对如何在现有约束条件下实现国民福利最大化的探讨不够系统和深入。发展型福利思想为未来养老保险福利效应研究及政策改革提供了新的视角。     

Borrowing to Finance Public Investment? The ‘Golden Rule of Public Finance’ Reconsidered in an Endogenous Growth Setting*

In this paper, we look for long‐run and short‐run effects of fiscal deficits on economic growth and welfare in a standard endogenous growth model. We show that, under very general hypotheses, the ‘golden rule of public finance’, which allows a government to run public‐investment‐oriented fiscal deficits, leads to a lower balanced‐growth path in the long run, and eventually in the short run, compared with balanced‐budget rules. Welfare effects are more difficult to assess, and depend on the form of the utility function. Our model shows that debt rules such as the golden rule may improve (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘low’) or weaken (if the consumption elasticity of substitution is ‘high’) intertemporal welfare. Consequently, a balanced‐budget rule does not necessarily dominate debt rules from the point of view of welfare, while it does from the point of view of long‐run economic growth.