房地产投资风险分析

随着国民经济的快速增长,我国房地产业也呈现出良好的发展态势。但是,在房地产业高速发展的背后,其所带来的投资风险也在日益增大,而要避免房地产投资风险,必须对房地产投资过程中可能出现的种种风险和不确定性因素做出分析。本文介绍房地产投资中常采用的分析方法,并按照房地产周期进行风险因素的识别。     

浅析跨国投资的风险防范问题

随着经济全球化、信息化和自由化发展趋势的不断强化,分支机构已成为现代企业的基本组织体制模式,经营地域半径也纷纷由国内延伸至国外甚至全球,经营发展的国际化程度日益提升。在这种情况下,以跨国融、投资等方式进行全方位、集约化业务拓展经营的现代企业经营模式和理念应运而生。跨国融、投资风险的构成分析当前跨国投资经营方式的风险表现形势多种多样,诸如市场经济世界一体化形式下的一般投资风险:全球政治、经济体系动荡引发的特殊风险;国际化保障体系发展程度不同引起的法律风险;经济全球化进程中包涵的投机信用风险;投资声誉风险等…     

我国企业集团跨国投资经营的对策建议

随着经济全球化的迅猛发展和世界性大市场的日趋统一，中国跨国企业集团面临着越来越广阔的市场和越来越激烈的竞争，尤其是随着中国加入WTO进程的日渐加快，中国企业集团如何积极实施“走出去”和对外开放战略，采取多种境外投资方式，参与国际分工，开拓海外市场，在竞争激烈的全球市场中占得一席之地，已越来越成为一项关系国民经济全局的重要课题。经济全球化的主要特点是生产和经营的全球化，而经济全球化的主要推动力是跨国企业集团，特别是大的跨国企业集团。在美国，1995年最大的50家跨国企业集团的对外投资占了美国对外投资的63…     

我国房地产企业融资方式研究

房地产业是一个典型的资金密集型产业,投资规模大、周期长,充足的资金对房地产业的发展至关重要。随着我国房地产投融资体制的不断变化和国家对房地产业的宏观调控,房地产企业的资金链面临着日益严峻的挑战。融资渠道的单一,对银行贷款依赖度过高,已成为房地产业发展的资金瓶颈,拓宽融资渠道成为了每个房地产企业都面临的重要问题。因此,在国家对房地产频繁的宏观调控形势下,剖析房地产融资存在的问题并进行探讨,提出解决方案,是解决房地产融资困难,化解商业银行房地产信贷风险,促进我国房地产行业健康发展的关键。     

稳定房价要完善土地供应

为抑制住房价格过快上涨,保持市场稳定发展,近期政府出台了一系列宏观调控政策措施,包括改善商品房供应结构、运用税收调节、加强金融监管、整顿和规范市场秩序、引导居民合理消费、制止炒卖土地、严格土地管理等。宏观调控中的一些金融、税收政策,对遏制投机、调整投资结构的作用非常明显,但只能解决个别地区短期内存在的突出问题,不能从根本上保障房地产业的长期发展。土地是房地产的载体和源头,土地供应是房地产开发的先决条件,构建和完善土地供应制度,才是确保房地产市场持续健康发展的治本之策。有人认为,对土地一级市场的垄断,会降低…     

新余市房地产市场分析与银行信贷策略

近年来,江西省新余市房地产业进入了新一轮的高速发展时期,呈现量增价升、购销两旺的繁荣景象,房地产业已成为政府新的经济增长点,被视为推动经济快速增长的重要产业之一,同时也成为金融业积极支持的对象,银行贷款投入增长较快。但同时,金融业对房地产开发投资可能过热产生忧虑。因此,新余农行组织了本次市房地产市场情况调查,以为银行房地产贷款提供参考。新余房地产业的发展现状(一)房地产业发展迅速。近年来,随着住房制度改革的深化、扩大内需政策的实施、招商引资力度的加大和建设花园城市步伐的加快,新余市房地产开发投资迅猛增长,房地…     

运用税收手段调节房地产市场

关于房地产的市场价格及走势是近年来学术界讨论的热点问题,研究的焦点是房地产价格是否偏高,是否存在房地产泡沫。而本文主要从税收及收费的角度对现行的房地产市场进行讨论,力求建立适应我国国情的房地产税收体系,以充分发挥税收在调节市场、优化资源配置、稳定经济方面的职能。一、我国房地产税收制度建设房地产业是国民经济的支柱产业,关系国计民生。我国房地产市场的建立是在20世纪八十年代改革开放以后,自从房地产商品化后,房地产业也迅速发展,商业附加值越来越高,渐渐成为市场的投资热点。而针对其发展的税种并没有相应的加以完善,我…     

我国房地产业健康发展战略思考

回顾过去的一年，2008年是中国经济发展最困难的一年，美国次贷危机的影响进一步从金融层面侵蚀到实体经济层面，国际、国内经济形势日趋复杂。2008年对中国房地产业来说也是极不寻常的一年，房地产市场卖方资金链紧绷，买方持币观望，房价上涨幅度放缓，商品房交易量下滑，房地产市场景气回落。随着2009年国家宏观调控政策的基本定调，房地产市场将步入较长时间的调整期、转型期，房地产企业应积极调整发展战略，稳健经营，自我拯救，走出窘境，从而实现企业的健康发展。     

中国企业海外经营风险分析

在经济全球化日益发展的当今时代,跨出国门,在海外从事贸易、投资、生产、销售,在全球范围内优化配置资源,追求经济效益最大化,已经成为立足长远发展的必然选择。然而,国际市场机遇与风险相生相伴,要想获得海外经营的持续成功,必须未雨绸缪,积极应对,采取对东道国政治风险的评估、成立国家风险报告中心、了解和熟悉东道国法律、完善跨国经营企业的风险防范机制等措施,将海外经营风险降到最低程度。     

城市房地产证券化问题探索

城市房地产证券化有利于房地产市场交易，作者对如何建立房地产证券市场作了描述，作者认为，发行房地产投资债券、发行房地产公司股票，建立房地产投资经济信托基金、拓展房地产抵押业务、组织房地产有限合伙是城市房地产证券化运作的主要方式，作者认为，随着我国城市建设的发展，我国城市房地产业证券化势在必行，对此，国家应采取一些措施，以加速城市房地产证券化的发展。     

回归理性,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展

房地产市场是经济市场和金融市场的重要组成部分,由于房地产产业特征决定房地产市场在国民经济中的地位和作用,是构建和谐社会的重要内容。目前因整个房地产市场已融入经济市场和金融市场,投资性和投机性需求是抬高房价的重要原因,应回归市场理性,采取多种方式促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,达到人人都有房住的目的。     

基于主成分分析和德尔菲法的房地产投资环境综合评价体系

研究目的：选用22个主要省会城市的统计数据,确定合理的房地产投资环境评价指标,构建房地产投资环境综合评价体系。研究方法：主成分分析法和德尔菲法。研究结果：从城市宏观经济、房地产市场、基础设施和区位条件4方面初选房地产投资环境评价指标,利用主成分分析法对样本城市的投资环境优劣进行分析,剔除导致排序结果偏差的指标,避免了评价指标选择的盲目性;采用德尔菲法确定各指标权重,建立房地产投资环境的多指标综合评价公式,以此计算22个城市房地产投资环境的综合得分,其排名符合实际情况。研究结论：所构建的房地产投资环境综合评价体系具有较强的逻辑性,评价方法简洁高效,具有良好的应用价值。     

The 4% rule: Does real estate make a difference?

This paper examines the wealth maximisation and preservation effects of including commercial real estate in retirement-phase portfolio management. Prior research addresses the role of real estate during the wealth-accumulation phase of the investor lifecycle; however, little is known about the contribution of real estate during the invest-and-spend, or decumulation, phase. To address this issue, we estimate short-fall risk based on the widely known 4% Rule. We use pricing data for multiple asset classes and simulation techniques, combined with a robust correlation structure, to examine: short-fall risk sensitivity to alternative spending rules; the impact of public vs. private real estate allocations; wealth preservation as an investment objective; and the effect of real estate on upside, or wealth maximisation, potential. We find short-fall risk in a decumulation portfolio decreases with substantial allocations to real estate. This result holds for a portfolio including either public or private real estate. Additionally, and under most conditions, the best performing decumulation-phase portfolios include a real estate allocation with both public and private real estate exposure. These results have significant implications for investors, whether they be retirees, plan administrators or endowments, as well as financial economists studying the lifecycle of investment decisions.     

基于不同住房属性视角的土地供应规模对房价的影响

研究目的：基于住房消费品和投资品的双重属性视角分析住宅用地供应规模对房地产市场的差异化影响。研究 方法：理论分析、固定效应面板回归模型、门槛回归模型。研究结果：（1）上一年住宅用地供应面积增加 1% 可使当年 住房竣工面积显著增加 0.17%，弱于房地产投资资金对住房竣工面积所产生的 0.25% 的提升作用，该结果一定程度上 验证了住宅用地供应与住房供给之间存在生产函数渠道的影响路径；（2）基于实际房价与租金还原房价的偏离程度测 算，发现不同房地产市场投资热度下，住宅用地供应对房价影响存在双重门槛效应，门槛值分别为 2.05 和 2.92；（3）低 投资热度下，上一年住宅用地供应规模的增加可显著降低当年的房价，而高投资热度下则会起到推高房价的作用。研 究结论：住房作为消费品和投资品，存在不同的价格机制和供求规律。当住房市场以投资品属性为主导时，需求曲线 向上的刚性走势违反了一般的商品需求规律，供给曲线的右移将导致均衡价格越来越高。     

Time to completion in the Lagos commercial real estate market: an examination of institutional effects

This study explores how institutions affect the process of investment and the time it takes to buy and sell commercial property in Lagos, Nigeria. We isolate institutional factors that impact transaction efficiency and provide a snapshot of the process with average transaction times for the largest commercial real estate market in the most populous country in Africa. This study adopts a qualitative approach and relies on information collected from semi-structured interviews with 36 senior level individuals active in the Lagos commercial real estate market. Among our findings, we note the commercial real estate transaction process is divided into seven distinct stages and the average time to complete an acquisition across all stages (all property types) is 306 days. Title registration/perfection stage takes the longest time (around 132 days) and represents a significant risk to investors. We argue this is a consequence of imperfections in the formal institutions of title registration.     

Predicting uncertainty: the impact of risk measurement on value of real estate portfolios

This paper presents a theoretical framework for an assessment and valuation of real estate assets and funds, based on modern stochastic discounted cash flow (DCF) models, which accurately captures the nature of related risks. We show that an accurate risk-adjusted valuation is particularly difficult for real estate investments, due to practical limits to diversification and difficulties in approximating total risk with systematic risk. We develop a risk assessment framework that includes idiosyncratic risk but focuses on insolvency risk related to a specific cash flow profile. We also present a methodology of rating this risk, using forecasts and simulations. We conclude that simulation techniques are a valuable tool in property risk assessment. Further, we show that cost of capital and value of assets depend on diversification of specific risks, investors can achieve in their portfolios.     

Brownfield risk communication and evaluation

Brownfield development is a risky business requiring specific knowledge and sensible judgement in order to create valuable real estate capital. This paper approaches brownfield risk in a multi-criterion, multi-actor interactive framework, taking into account the risks perceived and communicated by key actors. The paper begins with the development of a generic risk evaluation model using the analytical hierarchical process; this is followed by a primary purposive survey of experts’ stated-preference for weighting, ranking and scoring of risk factors developed earlier by the authors. The risk evaluation leads to a consistent hierarchy of risk factors influence brownfield decisions in the Melbourne context. Results indicate that site specific and project risks are the most important in brownfield development decision-making. Financial and market and planning risks are moderately important. Political and legal and socio-economic risks are relatively less important. The findings also indicate some inter sub-group variation in the relative importance of the risk factors. Developers rate financial and market and site specific risks most highly. Least of the developers’ concern is the socio-economic risk. Planners and consultants rate site specific and project risks highly. The AHP-based risk evaluation model is a new addition to the literature, and the findings may help improve explicit evaluation and communication in brownfield project financial decision and value reporting.     

Determinants of transaction activity in commercial real estate markets: evidence from European and Asia-Pacific countries

Variations in transaction activity between commercial real estate markets could have important implications for investment strategies and pricing. We consider why turnover rates, a common liquidity proxy, vary between countries and over time. We examine 38 countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific over the period 2000–2014. A conceptual framework is discussed prior to estimation of panel models that use turnover rates as the dependent variable. Our results indicate that the size and wealth of a country, the risk associated with that country and the performance of its commercial real estate market are significant factors that explain transaction activity. The quality of property rights is also an important factor.     

Real estate market efficiency

Summary

The application of modern portfolio theory to the investment in shares and bonds is integrally connected with the efficient market hypothesis. The requirement of multivariate normality of security returns is a sufficient condition for equilibrium asset pricing models such as the capital asset pricing model to theoretical work. Nevertheless the empirical relevance in decision making is firmly based on the efficiency of the capital market. If real estate investors are to avail themselves of these techniques it is first necessary to ensure the requirements of the efficient market hypothesis are satisfied in the context of the property market. This paper reports the results of such an inquiry into the British and Australian real estate markets.     

The restructuring of the institutional real estate portfolio in the UK

Real estate investment portfolios of financial institutions have seen dramatic changes over the last three decades or more. Historically such property investment decisions have been seen within a portfolio diversification paradigm that has sought to balance risk and return. This paper considers the role of the supply of assets in the determining and constraining the UK institutional portfolio. The supply of real estate assets not only expands during property booms but has also been transformed by a long term urban development cycle as cities adapt to cars and the ICT revolution that has brought new property forms. The research examines long term trends in investment change by disaggregating into ten property forms rather than the usual three land use sectors. It then assesses to what extent investment patterns can be explained in terms of portfolio theory, short term net returns of individual sectors or driven by the supply of real estate assets. It concludes that the supply of real assets is an overlooked explanation.