外贸依存度、相互依存度、经济开放度的比较分析

外贸依存度的不断提高并不必然意味着经济对外依赖程度的增强。一国外贸依存度、一国经济与世界经济的相互依存度以及一国经济对外依赖程度,是既相互联系又相互区别的一组经济范畴,可以分别用一组指标体系来描述它们。     

中国对外贸易依存度的发展趋势和策略研究

对外贸易依存度又称作对外贸易系数,是指一国进出口总额(对外贸易总额)与其国内生产总值或国民生产总值之比。一国对国际贸易的依赖程度,一般可用对外贸易依存度来表示,体现本国经济增长对进出口贸易的依附程度,也是衡量一国贸易一体化的主要指标。比重的变化意味着     

用平常心看待"外贸依存度"

外贸依存度是一国进出口总额与国内(或国民)生产总值之比,又称对外贸易系数。外贸依存度反映了一国海关所统计的货物输出输入情况与国民经济发展的关系,在一定程度上能体现一国经济中对外贸易的地位、重要性或依赖程度。但值得注意的是,外贸依存度只是一国对外开放程度的局部反映,并不是全部的反映。国人应用平常之心对待。反映一国(或单独关税区)对外开放程度的指标有货物市场的开放度、服务市场的开放度、资本市场的开放度。货物市场开放度只是其中之一。而外贸依存度又只是反映货物市场开放度的三个指标之一。2003年,中国外贸依存度为60%。     

探讨中美贸易摩擦的原因

中美作为世界两大经济实体,在众多领域经贸往来密切,合作规模不断扩大,随着经济全球化趋势的不断加强,加深了中美之间经济的相互依存,但也加大了中美之间的贸易摩擦。近年来,中美贸易摩擦有进一步加剧的趋势,究其主要原因,本文进行了简单分析。     

探讨中美贸易摩擦的原因

中美作为世界两大经济实体,在众多领域经贸往来密切,合作规模不断扩大,随着经济全球化趋势的不断加强,加深了中美之间经济的相互依存,但也加大了中美之间的贸易摩擦。近年来,中美贸易摩擦有进一步加剧的趋势,究其主要原因,本文进行了简单分析。     

我国外贸依存度提高带来的主要问题及对策

外贸依存度反映的是一国经济对他国经济或对世界经济相互依赖的程度,它是衡量一个国家经济对国际市场依赖程度的非常重要的指标。过高的外贸依存度会影响一个国家的经济安全并对其经济发展带来威胁。文章从我国外贸依存度的现状出发,分析了我国外贸依存度偏高的原因,探讨了外贸依存度提高带来的主要问题,并提出了相应的对策措施。     

对我国外贸依存度的分析与研究

外贸依存度的定义。外贸依存度是指一国对外贸易总额与国内生产总值(GDP)的比值，是用于衡量该国经济对国际市场依赖程度高低的指标之一。由于对外贸易分为出口和进口两部分，因此相应地，外贸依存度又可分为出口依存度和进口依存度。即进出口额分别与GDP的比值。在实际工作中，人们往往更重视出口依存度，它比外贸依存度更强调对经济发展的带动作用。     

我国经济对外依存度及相关政策建议

对外依存度是衡量一国经济开放情况及对外依赖程度的重要指标.改革开放以来,特别是我国加入世界贸易组织以来,我国经济融入全球经济的进程不断加快,对外依存度也不断提升.一方面,对外依存度的迅速增长表明我国经济积极参与经济全球化进程,可以利用全球市场和全球资源加快本国经济发展;另一方面,较高的对外依存度表明我国受全球经济波动的影响逐步加深,特别是我国许多重要战略物资的对外依存度均高于国际警戒线,严重威胁我国经济安全与可持续发展.为进一步降低我国经济特别是我国重要战略资源的对外依存度,确保我国经济整体安全性,应调整我国对外贸易政策,将经济增长的着力点放到扩大内需上来,鼓励代工企业向中西部地区转移,加快加工贸易转型升级,提高服务贸易出口,同时特别注重在重要战略物资问题上,进一步稳定进口来源,合理加大国内资源开发力度,提高能源使用效率,发展和推广清洁能源,重视能源安全问题,构建能源安全体系.     

新疆外贸依存度与GDP增长相关性实证分析

外贸依存度是用来衡量经济增长对进出口贸易的依附程度,从而反映一国(地区)贸易国际化程度的指标。文章通过对新疆1990-2005年GDP与外贸依存度的相关数据作一实证分析,揭示了其内在联系。     

中国对外贸易依存度分析

据商务部统计,中国外贸总额在最近16年中,从1千亿美元增长到1万亿美元,而衡量一国国民经济对对外贸易依赖程度的重要指标"对外贸易依存度"也一路蹿升.2002年突破50%,2005年高达63%,日前更有学者指出:中国的外贸依存度已经达到80%.这一比例大大高于其他发达国和发展中国家的水平,中国由此成为世界上外贸依存度最高的国家.出现这种情况,一方面表明中国参与全球一体化进程加速,国外市场的需求已经成为国内经济增长的重要动力,中国经济与世界经济的相互依赖性逐渐增强;但另一方面外贸依存度的高度和增速也给中国经济安全带来了威胁.     

Profile of China-Japan Trade

There are many important changes in the China-Japan economic rela- tion since 2000. Generally speaking,the economic relation between China and Japan is becoming closer and more interdependent than ever. China trade to Japan has increased at the rate of 16.2%, 31.1% and 25.7% in the year of 2002, 2003 and 2004. In 2006, the sum of the bilateral trade between China and Japan reached US$210 billion with the increasing rate of 11.5%. The amount of China trade to China has overrun that of U.S. to Japan,     

Peace and Economic Interdependence in the Middle East

Can economic interdependence pacify the Middle East? While Middle Eastern countries have, for the most part, avoided the global trend of regionalism, this study provides empirical evidence that Middle Eastern countries with significant trade ties to other countries in the region do cooperate more and fight less. In addition to confirming the liberal notion of peace through trade, this study shows that several conditions outlined by the selectorate theory of political survival must be fulfilled if economic interdependence in the Middle East is to be achieved. A case study outlining Israeli and Turkish economic cooperation is used to show the selectorate model's regional compatibility. The regional applicability of the selectorate theory leads us to conclude that politically liberal countries are more likely to maintain economic relations with one another than with autocratic ones. Since liberal countries will be more economically interdependent with one another they will also be more peaceful towards one another. Ultimately, then, this study concludes that political liberalisation is one way of enhancing regional economic interdependence and consequently the prospects for a more peaceful Middle East.     

人民币汇率与中美贸易收支结构研究

在国际金融危机的压力下,一些国家的贸易保护主义开始抬头,中国的对外贸易又成为众人关注的焦点。美国是中国的主要贸易伙伴国,中美贸易关系的发展不仅对各自的经济有极其重要的作用,而且对世界经济发展越来越具有影响力。关于人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡问题的研究表明,改善中美贸易收支的关键在于中国经济的持续增长。     

人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的实证研究

基于均衡汇率理论,应用协整模型,采用真实变量分析了1980-2003年的人民币实际汇率及其与均衡汇率的失调情况,进而研究了不同时期人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的关系。结果表明:贸易条件与中长期以及短期的实际汇率存在显著的关系,贸易条件的恶化或改善是导致人民币实际汇率升值或贬值的重要原因之一。并且,在不同的发展时期,贸易条件对实际汇率的影响呈现出不同的特点。     

The simultaneous evolution of economic growth,financial development,and trade openness

This article empirically investigates the interactions among economic growth, financial development, and trade openness through simultaneous equation systems. The identification and estimation of the systems rely on the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. The empirical results show that each of the three variables interacts in important ways. When controlling for the reverse causation, trade promotes economic growth in high-income, low-inflation, and nonagricultural countries but has a negative impact on growth in countries with the opposite attributes. Similarly, when accounting for the feedbacks from growth, banks and stock markets have different impacts on economic growth. While banking development is detrimental to output growth, stock market development is more favorable to growth in high-income, low-inflation, and nonagricultural countries. The data also reveal coexistence of a positive effect of financial development on trade and a negative effect of trade on financial development in poorer countries. In richer countries, financial development stimulates trade openness whereas trade has an ambiguous impact on financial development.     

汇率对产业内贸易的传导和冲击效应——基于中国东盟自由贸易区的分析

本文以中国与东盟六国18类产品的产业内贸易的月度面板数据作为分析基础,通过分析汇率与产业内贸易的传导关系、中国与东盟六国产业内贸易特点,并且建立产业内贸易指数与汇率的VAR模型,对我国的汇率对产业内贸易的冲击作用和动态关系做实证分析。研究发现:一是无论是短期或长期,汇率升值对绝大多数初级产品的产业内贸易是不利的,但在短期内它有助于提升大多数工业制品的产业内贸易水平,长期内对工业制品的产业内贸易冲击效应是分化的。二是汇率升值后长期内对不同劳动密集型产品的产业内贸易发展是一样的。三是无论是短期还是长期,初级产品的产业内贸易对汇率冲击的反应相当微弱,工业制品反应相对较强。     

人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡的关联性实证分析

近年来,中关贸易规模发展迅速,但双边贸易不平衡问题日益突出,成为中美贸易摩擦的焦点所在,人民币汇率问题被认为是导致中关贸易不平衡的主要原因。然而通过大量数据分析和探讨中关贸易不平衡与人民币汇率的关系,发现人民币汇率并非导致中美贸易不平衡的主要原因,而美国国内经济失衡,对华出口管制,两国统计口径的差异,美国对华的直接投资才是中关贸易失衡的主要原因。     

中美贸易收支与人民币汇率关系

本文基于1994~2005年的年度数据,通过协整分析和Granger因果检验发现,人民币汇率升值对中美贸易收支从长期看有一定影响,但不是中美贸易收支失衡的主要原因,美国经济发展状况以及国内政策才是导致中美贸易收支顺差的主要原因。在当前经济形势下,中美贸易顺差依然是我国经济发展的重要引擎之一。所以,我们一方面要警惕美国经济下滑导致我国的出口下降,另一方面可以利用人民币当前小幅上涨的契机,调整我国经济结构,加快产业升级的步伐。     

Self-construals,symbolic and hedonic preferences,and actual purchase behavior

The study explores the influence of the independent and interdependent self-construals on actual purchase behavior and the mediating role of consumer preferences for symbolic and hedonic meanings. Data were collected through a survey of about 1000 respondents. Results indicate that independent consumers draw on the self/hedonic- and status-symbolic resources of clothing in the construction and expression of their identities. Regarding the interdependent consumers, they show no interest in clothing affiliation and status symbolism. The degree of preference for status-symbolic meaning mediates all effects of the independent and interdependent self-construals on actual purchase behavior; self-expressive/hedonic preferences mediate two of the three effects of the independent self on actual purchase behavior when accounting for suppression effects, whereas the expected mediation of preference for affiliation meaning is not supported.     

Exchange-Rate Volatility,Exchange-Rate Regime,and Trade in OIC Countries

The authors examine the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade in the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) countries from 1995 to 2008 using panel estimations to distinguish differences between disaggregate trade, and examine its threshold effects. Results reveal that exchange rate volatility generally has significant negative effect on export and import with lag. However, exports of OIC with flexible exchange rate regime have significant positive exposure to exchange rate volatility. The authors also document a threshold effect for countries with trade value constitutes more than 30% of the real gross domestic product, and the exchange rate volatility becomes significant positive for export but significant negative for import with lag.