Time-Consistent Polities and Growth in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis

This paper investigates whether stable political regimes develop stable systems of rules that are conducive to growth, similar to property rights. New measures of political stability indicate that stable political systems stimulate growth in developing autocratic countries. Contrarily, political instability significantly reduces growth in autocracies, as instability creates a time-consistency problem. In some specifications, an instability measure has significant negative growth effects in democracies, and may be an alternative to measures of property rights. Similarly, ethnic fractionalization reduces growth in autocracies, but not developing democracies. Tests indicate that these results are not sensitive to extreme values in the data. JEL no. O40, H11     

Are Antidumping Duties for Sale? Case‐Level Evidence on the Grossman‐Helpman Protection for Sale Model

Do contributions to politicians affect trade policy? To examine this question, we have compiled a new, unique database containing information on political donations by the specific firms and labor organizations that have petitioned for antidumping protection from imports, as well as data on the outcomes of their requests. Using an empirical framework based on the 1994 “protection for sale” model, we examine the relationship between antidumping decisions and political activism. Our results indicate that money does matter. We find that politically active petitioners are more likely to receive protection and that antidumping duty rates tend to be higher for that group. In addition, the relationship between the import penetration ratio and duties imposed depends on whether or not petitioners are politically active—antidumping duties are positively correlated with the import penetration ratio for politically inactive petitioners but negatively correlated for politically active petitioners, consistent with the Grossman‐Helpman model's predictions.     

Democracy and Durability: Empirical Analysis and a Causality Test

The current literature has failed to differentiate between the collapse of democratic and authoritarian rules or whether democratic regimes collapse for the same reasons as do authoritarian regimes. Therefore, the current literature is silent on whether democracies are more fragile or less susceptible to economic and political breakdowns. Using a multitude of political instability variables, this paper explores empirically, whether political freedom and civil liberty (a proxy for democracy) has any effect on the stability of the political order. The empirical results of the paper confirm the hypothesis that democracy is conducive to political stability; the higher the level of political freedom and civil liberty, the more stable countries are. The paper also presented a Granger-causality test of political instability and the level of political freedom and civil liberty. The test results indicate that the level of political freedom and civil liberty Granger-cause the level of political instability, while the level of political instability does not Granger-cause the level of political freedom and civil liberty. The test results indicate that Granger-causality runs one-way from political freedom and civil liberty to political instability and not the other way. A further comprehensive research is needed on the multi-layered and the complex relationship among democracy and the resilience of the political order.I would like to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments that improved the quality of the paper. I would also like to thank the Research Council of Niagara University for their financial support.     

Growth,Poverty, and Inequality under Jokowi

SUMMARY

The political authority of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was bolstered in the third quarter of 2015 by a cabinet reshuffle, his coalition's gaining a parliamentary majority, and several foreign-policy developments. Indonesia's request to rejoin OPEC, for example, after having left in 2008, seemed more about international relations than oil prices, while official visits to the Middle East and the United States allowed Jokowi to project his presidency on the international stage. He still faces resistance from within his own party, however.

Jokowi's politically bold reshuffle of economic ministers in August soon yielded a range of policy announcements. In September and October, his government introduced its first substantial set of reforms—a number of economic policy packages intended, among other things, to attract investment and stimulate domestic demand. If even half of these policies are put in place, the impact on Indonesia's economy should be tangible.

Few countries have escaped the effects of falling global commodity prices and China's growth slowdown. At 4.7%, year on year, in the third quarter Indonesia's rate of economic growth again fell short of the government's target. Slowing growth and a negative outlook have lowered market expectations and weakened the rupiah, which is also burdened by the large outstanding external debt held by corporate borrowers. Indonesia's real effective exchange rate has recently begun to depreciate, however, which may stimulate exports. Growth prospects will also improve if the substantial increase in capital and infrastructure spending allocated in the state budget is realised.

Against this backdrop, we focus on what has happened to poverty and inequality in Indonesia since Jokowi took office. The distributional impacts of the current macroeconomic climate are likely to be hardest felt by the poor. Indonesia is well known for its record on poverty reduction, but between September 2014 and March 2015 the share of the population in poverty increased, even though economic growth was close to 5.0%. Slowing growth, rising food prices, the falling real wages of farmers, and the delayed disbursement of fuel-price compensation all had an effect. Such impacts may be mitigated in the medium term by Jokowi's budget reallocations to infrastructure, if realised, and his expansion of social spending.     

INDONESIAN POLITICS IN 2006: STABILITY,COMPROMISE AND SHIFTING CONTESTS OVER IDEOLOGY

The second year of President Yudhoyono's term in office was distinguished by continuing political stability and important democratic gains, including the continued implementation of direct elections of local government executives and the enactment of the Law on Governing Aceh. But if these achievements reconfirmed Indonesia's membership of the club of electoral democracies, the shallow roots of its democratic system were also apparent, especially in the weakness of the political party system. In preferring pragmatic cross-party deal making, the parties often played down their ideological commitments. Within society, however, ideological debates over the vexed issue of religion and the state intensified, and became an important part of the national political agenda. Amounting to an Indonesian version of the ‘culture wars’, such controversies were sparked by concerns that a proposed national bill on pornography and controversial regional by-laws were an indirect attempt to introduce Islamic law.     

Political instability, policy uncertainty, and economic growth: An empirical investigation

This paper elaborates upon the effect of political stability on economic growth using a novel approach. Unlike the literature on growth that emphasizes the turnover of decision makers, this paper focuses on the volatility of economic policies as the relevant indicator of stability. The literature on growth ignores the microeconomic instability associated with frequent changes of government policies. The empirical results of this paper indicate that the effect of political instability on economic growth is not conclusive. Most of the commonly used proxies for political instability have failed to explain growth differences across countries. The political instability indices have no significant effect on growth when a reasonable set of core variables is also included in the regression equation. The results also show that almost all of the policy uncertainty variables are significantly and negatively correlated with economic growth. However, the instability of economic policies has no significant impact on the accumulation of capital.     

Looking inward for transformative growth

Export led growth has been very effective in modernising China's economy and establishing a large high-saving middle class. Notwithstanding political opposition from trading partners, this growth strategy has also offered the rest of the world improved terms of trade in both product and financial markets, in the form of cheaper light manufactures and cheaper credit. Yet slowing demand in export destinations has forced a transition to inward-sourced growth. This paper uses a numerical model of the Chinese economy with oligopoly behaviour to examine the available “inward” sources of transformative growth along with the policies needed to exploit them. The potential for further “transformative” growth is shown to be considerable though it will require accelerated skilled labour supply growth and the politically difficult extension of industry policy reform to heavy manufacturing and services.     

Association Lecture—The Economic Roots of Political Underdevelopment in the Middle East: A Historical Perspective

Key institutions of the pre‐modern Middle Eastern economy, all grounded in Islamic law, blocked the development of democratic institutions. This talk identifies three mechanisms that played critical roles. Islam's original tax system failed to produce lasting and credible constraints on governance. The waqfs (Islamic trusts) founded to provide social services to designated constituencies were politically powerless. Profit‐making private enterprises remained small and ephemeral, hindering the formation of stable coalitions capable of bargaining with the state. The last two mechanisms jointly delayed the rise of a civil society able to provide the checks and balances essential to democratic rule.     

Money Growth,Output Growth,and Inflation: A Reexamination of the Modern Quantity Theory's Linchpin Prediction

A testable implication of the modern quantity theory of money, when viewed as a theory of inflation, is the joint hypothesis that (i) there is a one-to-one positive relationship between inflation and the money stock growth rate, (ii) there is a one-to-one negative relationship between inflation and the aggregate output growth rate, and (iii) there are no other determinants of inflation besides the money stock and aggregate output expansion rates. This implication is the theory's linchpin prediction. A recent prior study published in this journal examines cross-country data and reports that this hypothesis cannot be rejected. The present study reexamines the prior study's data and finds that the joint hypothesis is decisively rejected, an unpleasant finding from a monetarist perspective. The article then goes on to propose an alternative to the prior study's model of the inflation process and reports findings that are, from the perspective of a monetarist, at least mildly pleasant.     

Trade,Geography, and Industry Growth in U.S. Manufacturing

Much of the recent empirical literature examining the New Economic Geography has focused on how access to markets impacts wages. In this article, we consider an alternative aspect of the theory by examining how access to markets affects industry growth. We develop a model relating the growth of two key measures of market size—market access and supplier access—to growth in industry employment and the real value of industry shipments. We estimate the model using data on U.S. manufacturing industries between 1984 and 1996. We find strong evidence to suggest that access to markets positively affects industry growth.     

Competitiveness of China's Manufacturing Industry and its Impacts on the Neighbouring Countries

This paper investigates the rapid growth of China's share in the international commodity market and the structural changes of China's commodity exports. It demonstrates a significant improvement of international competitiveness in China's manufacturing sector. The panel data analysis, based on a Solow–Swan type growth model on China's 37 manufacturing industries from 1991 to 2002, reveals that the main sources of the strengthened competitiveness of China's manufacturing sector have been mainly from Total Factor Productivity (TFP), while labour productivity has been increasing and capital productivity has been falling. A preliminary empirical analysis on the impacts of China's increasing competitiveness finds that there are negative correlations between China and most of its neighbouring countries, both newly industrialised economies and other Southeast Asian developing economies. However, there is no evidence of negative impacts of China's increasing competitiveness on developed countries such as the United States and Japan.     

Questioning the Relationship between Participation and Development: A case study of the Vale do Ribeira, Brazil

Through the analysis of two participatory forums active in the Vale do Ribeira (Brazil)—the Committee for the Management of Water Resources (CGRH) and the Consortium of Food Safety and Local Development (Consad)—this article discusses the argument that “well designed” institutions enable the inclusion of a broader spectrum of actors in political debates, as well as reduce the asymmetries between them thereby facilitating the negotiation and agreement of politically and economically viable projects that would help to encourage development in the region. The two forums were observed in terms of how they dealt with two polemical regional issues: the proposal to build a big dam, a process which has been going on for more than a decade and the definition of a program of sustainable development capable of reconciling environmental conservation and growth in the local economy. The analysis suggests that during the period of research, these forums recreated in the participatory sphere coalitions that were already present in the regional political scene, thereby acting as an extension of the party political game rather than as arenas where new arrangements of actors could agree on alternative projects. From a theoretical perspective, this result raises again the question of the origin and the change of institutions, in that it questions the mechanisms necessary for the creation of institutions explicitly designed to alter the status quo.     

An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP

This paper employs a structural time series model designed with three components of stochastic seasonality, trigonometric expression of cyclicality and local linear trend to investigate the evolutionary process of China's GDP. In particular, the model is able to detect the stop–go feature of China's economic growth, i.e., growth cycle, as well as business cycle. The empirical result suggests that most variation in China's macroeconomic performance came from business cycle. The investigation of the three components along with historical events suggests that the Chinese economy had been largely influenced by political activities up to the early 1990s. In the mid-1990s China entered a period of stable and highly growing economy, thanks to the economic reform and the successful implementation of macroeconomic policies. However, since the mid-2000s China has become more sensitive to the turbulences in international markets. In the foreseeable future, the challenge facing China is a more volatile economy with possible slowdown in the economic growth, although the growth rate would still be high compared to developed economies.     

Multiparty Competition, Founding Elections and Political Business Cycles in Africa

Political business cycle (PBC) theory and empirics typicallyassume that elections are competitive. Yet, as empirical workon PBCs turns increasingly to developing countries for evidence,this assumption becomes untenable. We propose and test two empiricalhypotheses regarding PBCs: first, we should only see cycleswhen elections involve multiparty competition; secondly, weshould see larger cycles in ‘founding’ elections.Using a new indicator of multiparty competition and macroeconomicdata from Africa, we find strong support for our first hypothesisand moderate support for the second. These findings have implicationsfor democratic transitions and the compatibility of economicand political reform in nascent democracies.     

Carrots That Look Like Sticks: Toward an Understanding of Multitasking Incentive Schemes

Constructing compensation schemes for effort in multidimensional tasks is complex, particularly when some dimensions are not easily observable. When incentive schemes contractually reward workers for easily observed measures, such as quantity produced, the standard model predicts that unrewarded dimensions, such as quality, will be neglected. Yet, there remains mixed empirical evidence in favor of this standard principal‐agent model prediction. This article reconciles the literature using both theory and empirical evidence. The theory outlines conditions under which principals can use a piece rate scheme to induce higher quantity and quality levels than analogous fixed wage schemes. Making use of a series of complementary laboratory and field experiments we show that this effect occurs because the agent is uncertain about the principal's monitoring ability and the principal's choice of a piece rate signals to the agent that she is efficient at monitoring.     

The Effects of Civic Education on Political Culture: Evidence from Zambia

Little empirical research has been done on civic education in new democracies. This article appraises, through a comparison of results from two social surveys, the effects on political culture of several civic education programs conducted principally by nongovernmental organizations in Zambia. Among its findings are that: civic education has observable positive effects, but mainly among privileged elements in society; civic education has consistently greater impact on citizens' knowledge and values than on their political behavior; and, with the possible exception of informal methods such as drama shows, means have yet to be devised to induce citizens to become active voters.     

Welfare-State Retrenchment: The Partisan Effect Revisited

This paper aims to shed light on the role of the ‘ideology’of political parties in shaping the evolution of the welfarestate in 18 developed democracies, by providing empirical findingson the determinants of social-programme entitlements and socialspending over the period 1981–99. The paper shows thatstructural change is a major determinant of the extent of socialprotection. Our results suggest that overall spending is drivenup by structural change. On the other hand, strong structuralchange has a negative influence on welfare entitlements measuredby the net rate of sickness insurance. Partisan influence playsan important role in the dynamics of the welfare state. Left-winggovernments strengthen the positive effect of shocks on aggregatesocial expenditure, while right-wing governments undertake evenstronger cutbacks in replacement rates as a reaction to structuralchange. Footnotes ¹ E-mail addresses: bruno.amable{at}ens.fr; donatella.gatti{at}cepremap.cnrs.fr;jan.schumacher{at}wiwi.uni-regensburg.de     

Capital utilization in Japan's lost decade: A neoclassical interpretation

This paper attempts to reconcile the controversy regarding Japan's total factor productivity during its slump in the 1990s by clarifying the role of capital utilization. Hayashi and Prescott (2002) emphasized that the decline in the exogenous total factor productivity growth rate was the main cause. However, some empirical studies have also pointed out that the fall in capital utilization rates accounted for a large part of the decline in the total factor productivity growth rate. In this study we incorporate variable capital utilization into a neoclassical growth model, calculate total factor productivity taking into account capital utilization, and simulate the aggregate output and capital-output ratio. We found that although our total factor productivity growth rate in the 1990s is consistent with empirical studies, our simulation can explain the observed data. This result indicates the importance of capital utilization rates as a source of propagation during Japan's depression.     

Modelling value-added tax in the presence of multi-production and differentiated exemptions

We develop a framework for economy-wide modelling of value-added tax systems. Our framework models a number of complexities of VAT systems as implemented by tax agencies. In particular, we model multiple rates, multiple exemptions, multiple degrees of refundability across commodity users, and multi-product enterprises. We use our framework to model what is arguably South East Asia's most complex VAT system: that of Vietnam. We analyse the macroeconomic, industrial and distributional effects of simplifying Vietnam's complex VAT system. We simplify the system via a budget-neutral movement to one rate and removal of discretionary exemptions. This generates an aggregate welfare gain, but adverse distributional effects. Adverse distributional effects can be greatly ameliorated, at small cost to the aggregate welfare gain, via exclusion of paddy and rice from the VAT simplification program.     

Economic Institutions and the Durability of Democracy

Why do some democracies persist while others break down? Some studies have suggested that economic development decreases the likelihood of authoritarian reversal, which is consistent with Milton Friedman’s argument that economic freedom is necessary for political freedom. An empirical investigation of countries that have transitioned to democratic governments since World War II shows that higher quality economic institutions increase the durability of those democratic governments. This supports Friedman’s observation about the relationship between economic and political institutions.