Friendly Fire? The Impact of US Antidumping Enforcement on US Exporters

While there has been considerable interest in recent years in the role of macroeconomic determinants of antidumping actions by the United States and other traditional users, on the one hand, and the determinants of the growing global usage of this trade policy instrument, on the other, there has to date been no systematic exploration of the motivations for the significant number of foreign antidumping cases filed against US exporters. Several observers have remarked that the growing number of foreign users of antidumping might threaten US exporters, but the determinants of these actions have not been examined. That is the purpose of this study. We find that these actions are in part explained by macroeconomic forces and as a response to US export superiority in particular sectors, however a significant role (and larger than found for global antidumping more generally) is played by retaliation for US trade policy actions. JEL no.  F13     

The economic and strategic motives for antidumping filings

The Economic and Strategic Motives for Antidumping Filings. — This paper looks at worldwide antidumping activity during the last two decades. We examine the motives for AD filings by countries in an attempt to identify whether economic or strategic concerns are driving the recent upsurge in AD use. We begin by providing a comprehensive overview of the data on cases initiated in the 1980–1998 period. We then use nonparametric methods to identify motivations for the use of antidumping and find considerable support for strategic motivations. This suggests that the rise in AD activity cannot be solely explained by an increase in unfair trading practices.     

Cross-Country Private Saving Heterogeneity and Culture

Motivated by the dominant role of cross-country heterogeneity in private saving in the creation of Eurozone imbalances over the past decade, we empirically investigate the determinants of private saving for a sample of 30 OECD countries over the period 1990–2010. In addition to standard macroeconomic variables, we include three country-specific cultural indicators, derived from the World and European Value Surveys. We find these three variables—thrift, trust and religiosity—to significantly contribute to the explanation of cross country saving heterogeneity both for the OECD group at large and for the Eurozone countries separately.     

中国遭遇国外反倾销调查的现状原因及对策

自1995年以来,中国产品已经连续14年成为全球反倾销调查的头号对象,近3年来全球超过1/3的反倾销调查针对中国产品。本文首先研究了目前中国遭遇国外反倾销调查的现状,接着阐述了国外对我国进行反倾销调查的原因,最后提出我国的对策。     

Is European antidumping protection against Central Europe too high?

Is European Antidumping Protection against Central Europe Too High? —In this paper, the author finds that the average level of European antidumping protection against Central Europe in 1985-1990 was by 14 to 20 percentage points too high. Her simulation results on the Central European antidumping cases show only ‘de minimis’ injury margins. Hence, the European Commission would have dismissed all European antidumping complaints against Central European imports and no antidumping measures would have been imposed. In view of these results, the author feels that European antidumping legislation and its implementation seriously undermine the credibility of the Association Agreements recently signed between the European Union and the countries of Central Europe.     

Entering new country and product markets: does export promotion help?

Entering new export markets is primarily a discrete choice. Even though several empirical papers have used modeling strategies consistent with this fact, no study has examined the effects of public policies aimed at affecting this decision within this setting. In this paper we assess the impact of trade promotion activities on export outcomes using trade support and highly disaggregated export data for the entire population of exporters of Uruguay, a small developing country, over the period 2000–2007 to estimate a binary outcome model that allows for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that trade supporting activities have helped firms reach new destination countries and introduce new differentiated products.     

Macro Economic Determinants of Antidumping: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing Countries

This study examines how macro factors influence the use of antidumping in developed and developing countries. A panel data analysis of 99 countries over 1980–2000 reinforces the view that the primary jurisdiction for the antidumping law is really more political than economic. Furthermore, it suggests that once the WTO is fully enforced, the use of antidumping will spread among developing countries not only due to greater liberalization pressures but also as many countries would like to create an antidumping ability so as to counter its use against them. This may reverse the trade gains that liberalization may ensure to them. This paper thus calls for the granting of the special and differential treatment to developing countries in this provision. Finally, based on its findings, the paper argues that future negotiations should be directed toward revising safeguard rules and replacing antidumping by this new clause.     

Injury Investigations in Antidumping and the Super-Additivity Effect: A Theoretical Explanation

Empirical evidence shows that in injury investigations in antidumping cases conducted by the United States International Trade Commission, the probability of a positive finding is higher when the number of defendant firms is larger, holding constant their total market share. In the paper we offer a theoretical explanation of this finding. We show that the presence of many exporters exacerbates the free-rider problem, which leads every firm to invest less on defense. Thus for the same market share, injury finding is more likely to be positive for many small sellers than a few large sellers. JEL no. F13, L13     

日本反倾销政策及其特点探析

日本是世界上最早实施反倾销制度的国家之一，其反倾销政策具有自身的特点。同时，在美国和欧盟等发达国家或地区纷纷采用反倾销手段保护本国产业、国际反倾销摩擦愈演愈烈的大背景下，同为发达国家的日本却很少发起反倾销调查。本文从日本反倾销政策的基本内容出发，考察了日本反倾销政策及其实践的特点，并分析了形成这些特点的相关原因。     

Trade Destruction and Trade Diversion: Evidence from China

Over the past three decades, we have seen a dramatic increase in the incidence of temporary trade barriers such as antidumping duties and countervailing duties. China has been at the receiving end of a large number of such measures. In this paper, we study how China's exports to its major trade partners have been affected when its major trade partners have used these measures either against China or against other countries. We find that Chinese exports to the country that imposed an antidumping duty decreased by approximately 35 percent. At the same time, an antidumping duty used by the importing country that was directed towards other countries but not against China led to an approximate 30‐percent increase in China's exports to the policy‐imposing country. These results remain robust across various specifications. Our findings have important policy implications. In particular, the magnitude of these effects highlights why it is important to curb the recent widespread use of these barriers.     

Global Rebalancing and the Future of the Sino-US Codependency

The crisis of 2008 has shown the unsustainability of the global imbalances centered on the US-China symbiotic relationship that characterized the previous decade. This has revived the so-called growth-rebalancing debate. In particular, the new emerging consensus calls for a re-orientation of the US economy away from consumption and toward exports, and for policy shifts that can help China to reduce its dependence on external demandand inefficiently high rates of capital accumulation. We discuss the economic and political feasibility of the proposed patterns of re-adjustment by focusing on the short-term and long-term trade-offs faced by the policy-makers. We argue that the rebalancing will be gradual and partial because of the costs associated with a radical shift in the growth models adopted by both countries. We believe that this scenario will be consistent with a world economy expanding at lower rates than over the past decade.     

The reverse home-market effect in exports: a cross-country study of the extensive margin of exports

Do small countries have higher proportions of firms that export in manufacturing industries than large ones? As small countries are well known to be more open than large ones, it may appear uncontroversial to claim that the answer is yes. Nevertheless, this contradicts predictions from many standard trade models positing a home-market effect in the number of manufacturing firms and exporters. In this article, I present a theoretical model where a home-market effect in the number of firms coexists with a reverse home-market effect in the number of exporters: as in standard models, the number of firms in a small country relative to that in a large one is lower than relative income, but, in contrast to standard models, the relative number of exporters is larger. As a consequence, small countries will have higher proportions firms that export in manufacturing industries—a claim I support empirically.     

China’s fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade

The growth of Chinese exports in market share over the past two decades is a singular event in the history of world trade. Using data from 1995–2010, we document this growth in a variety of ways. We show that the expanded trade is pervasive. Virtually every country in the world has seen China claim a larger share of its import market. Then, we use Constant Market Share analysis to determine which country or countries have lost market share as China’s trade has grown. Contrary to much discussion in the popular press, we find strong evidence that other developing countries have not seen export shares fall as a result of China’s gains. Rather, our results suggest that China’s share growth has come largely at the expense of exporters based in developed countries, especially Japan and the United States.     

Trade Effects of US Antidumping Actions against China*

Using data on US imports, classified at the 10‐digit Harmonized System commodity level, we study the effects of all antidumping investigations initiated by the USA against China between 1998 and 2006. We find that antidumping actions cause a reduction in the volume and value of imports from China as well as an increase in the price of those goods in the US market. Critically, however, we find that these effects are short‐lived and dissipate approximately 2 years after the antidumping decision. Furthermore, antidumping actions against China prompt a substitution effect as they increase US imports from other countries. In general, our results cast doubt on the effectiveness of antidumping actions against China as mechanisms for protecting US producers.     

Are Antidumping Duties for Sale? Case‐Level Evidence on the Grossman‐Helpman Protection for Sale Model

Do contributions to politicians affect trade policy? To examine this question, we have compiled a new, unique database containing information on political donations by the specific firms and labor organizations that have petitioned for antidumping protection from imports, as well as data on the outcomes of their requests. Using an empirical framework based on the 1994 “protection for sale” model, we examine the relationship between antidumping decisions and political activism. Our results indicate that money does matter. We find that politically active petitioners are more likely to receive protection and that antidumping duty rates tend to be higher for that group. In addition, the relationship between the import penetration ratio and duties imposed depends on whether or not petitioners are politically active—antidumping duties are positively correlated with the import penetration ratio for politically inactive petitioners but negatively correlated for politically active petitioners, consistent with the Grossman‐Helpman model's predictions.     

美国对华反倾销的统计分析

1980—2005年间,美国越来越重视对华反倾销措施的使用,美国对华反倾销案件涉及的行业比较集中,钢铁业、化工业和机电业这三个行业被诉次数最多,而涉及这三个行业的案件的裁定结果却存在着较大的差异。     

Measuring trade creation effects of free trade agreements: Evidence from wine trade in East Asia

East Asia has experienced an unprecedented expansion in its wine market over the past two decades. This paper examines the extent to which import tariff reductions through bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have contributed to an increase in wine imports to Japan, China, and South Korea. Our empirical method involves estimating an augmented version of the gravity equation by the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) technique. Analyzing a panel dataset for 1990–2016 covering 27 exporters, we find that overall a 1 percentage point reduction in tariff among FTA member countries is associated with an increase in the wine import volumes by 0.042%, which is seven times higher than a similar reduction in tariff on an MFN basis. The strongest trade creation effects are founded for bottle wine. The results are robust to various specifications.     

Cultural Baggage: Do Immigrants Import Corruption?

Do immigrants undermine culture in a way that destroys productivity in destination countries? Some scholars have argued that because immigrants come from countries with dysfunctional social capital—norms and institutions—they will import it and pollute the social capital in destination countries. One potential channel through which this could occur is corruption. We examine stocks and flows of immigrants over a 20‐year time period to see if corruption increased in destination countries. We generally find that immigration is not associated with increases in corruption. Additionally, we find that immigration tends to decrease corruption in destination countries with low levels of corruption or high levels of economic freedom.     

Antidumping and tariff Jumping: Japanese firms’ DFI in the European union and the United States

Antidumping and Tariff Jumping: Japanese Firms’ DFI in the European Union and the United States. — The relationship between EU and US antidumping measures and direct foreign investment (DFI) is examined through a micro-econometrical analysis of Japanese firms’ plant establishments in the electronics industry. After controlling for firm and industry capabilities, market size, transport cost, and product cycle effects, antidumping actions are found to have a substantial positive effect on Japanese DFL EU antidumping is roughly twice as likely to lead to tariffjumping DFI as US antidumping, which is ascribed to marked differences in antidumping procedures. Tariff jumping makes antidumping ineffective in combatting anticompetitive behaviour by foreign firms and may result in increased market concentration.     

Has China displaced other Asian countries' exports?

This paper uses gravity modelling to explore whether and how the growth of China's exports is displacing exports of other Asian countries to third markets over the period 1990–2003. Chinese exports are defined both narrowly and more broadly to include exports from Hong Kong. We investigate whether the displacement effect on Asian exports differs when exports from Hong Kong and China are combined compared to the narrow case of Chinese exports only. Aggregate and disaggregated analyses are undertaken. In the latter, we explore whether the displacement effect varies across Asian countries and in trade with different types of countries. We find evidence of a displacement effect which is more pronounced in developed markets and stronger for Hong Kong and China combined. Further it is the high income Asian exporters that experienced a greater displacement effect. We also investigate whether China's development has generated any offsetting effects on its neighbours' exports to China itself and find that Chinese growth has indeed increased China's imports from the Asian countries in the sample and in particular from Japan and Korea.