平准基金的救市猜想

中国股市自去年10月以来波动幅度日益加大,相比于去年10月的最高点6124点。目前股票市场的最大跌幅接近60％,90％以上的投资者处于亏损状态。2／3以上的流通股股东的损失超过大盘的下跌幅度。面对中国股市如此大的波动,救市方案再次被市场热议。而在多个方案之中,建立强有力的平准基金成为市场的最新热点。     

高度关注金融稳定意义上的流动性风险

2013年6月24日,中国股市创下自2009年8月31日以来、近四年中最大单日跌幅。截至当日收盘,沪指收报1963.24点,下跌109.86点,跌幅达5.3%;深成指收报7598.52点,下跌547.53点,跌幅达6.73%。以银行、保险、券商为首的金融板块及地产、环保等板块领跌两市,近200家个股跌     

台湾股市暴跌后出现的变化

台湾股票市场经过连续几年的超常升涨,从去年2月中旬开始,连连下挫,由当时的12680点,到5月份跌至6000多点,7月份下跌至4450点。到10月中旬,已经跌至2500点,跌幅高达80%。台湾股市去年的暴跌,反映了前几年股市肥皂泡的破灭,对台湾经济带来了不少不利影响。不过股市暴跌也将台湾证券市场存在的问题和弊端暴露无遗,促使货币当局下决心推进变革,并提高投资者的风险意识,引导台湾股市走上比较稳健的规范化发展的道路。     

设立平准基金 加强资本市场监管

2007年10月以来的资本市场巨幅波动严重打击了投资者的信心,而这又进一步加剧了资本市场的波动,消除影响股市健康发展的短期非理性因素,恢复投资者对中国经济前景的信心,平准基金堪当重任。本文在分析我国现状的基础上,简单探讨了在我国推行平准基金的相关问题。     

股市维稳关键在于“治市”

股市平准基金不利于股市的健康稳步发展。一方面,股市平准基金一旦设立,就很容易成为有关政府部门调控股市又一新的路径,从而发生“政策市”向“操控市”的演化;另一方面,股市平准基金将处于盈亏的两难境地。如果政府需要在股市交易中获得差价收益,则股市就无“公开、公平、公正”的三公原则可言了。如果亏损了,则意味着政府以全国纳税人缴纳的税款来补贴股市投资者。要推进股市稳定健康地发展,关键是要充分发挥市场机制的基础性作用。目前要着力解决三个问题：逐步改变以监管为名行管制之实的状况;大力发展公司债券市场;加快多层次股票市场体系的建设。     

全球股市大幅下挫国内市场热点频出——2010年1月全球股市及工商银行股票表现

2010年1月,全球股市大幅下跌。欧美股市先扬后抑,标准普尔指数跌幅为5.22%,英国富时100指数跌幅311.82点。香港市场和A股市场也均大幅下挫,恒生指数月跌幅7.86%,上证指数失守3000点,月跌幅达8.78%,同时,工商银行的A股和H股股价也出现了大幅回落。但是,基于稳健的经营风格,充足的资本实力以及“强个金”的发展战略,市场继续给予工商银行积极的评级,其投资价值进一步凸现。     

股市暴跌不止,十年裹足不前

正2011年12月15日,上证指数报收2180点,相对年内最高的3062点,跌幅近30%,击穿了投资者2200点的心理防线,处于2001年6月22日收盘价2251点的下方。从股指水平来看,中国股市一夜间似乎回到了十年前,好像"人类"也无法阻止中国股市的下跌。当然不可否认,中国股市也曾辉煌过,于2007年10月创下过6124点的"令人敬仰"的股市巅峰,但那已成为中国股市泡沫的标志,成为投资者心中永远的痛。     

中国得感冒,全世界打喷嚏——从"黑色星期二"看中国影响

2月27日,星期二,中国股市出现了十年来最大一次暴跌, 1500余只股票有近800支跌停。沪深两市单日跌幅近9％。不可思议的是,当天,从东半球到西半球,除越南和中国台湾以外,全球主要股市也随之跌跌不体。在美国道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数收盘下跌了400多点,是“9．11”事件以来(2001年9月17日后)的最大跌幅;反映欧洲股市总体行情的道琼斯斯托克600指数下跌了2．7％,英国金融时报指数收盘时跌幅为2．3％;新兴市场国家股市受影响更加明显,从俄罗斯到拉美国家都出现了股票     

有关平准基金相关问题的思考

平准基金是本轮牛市调整以来,市场上呼吁政府进行救市的众多措施之一.事实上,有关设立平准基金的讨论在中国股票市场上已经有过好多次.本文主要回顾了有关平准基金讨论的历史渊源、探讨了平准基金对于股市的意义,研究了在平准基金设立过程中可能遇到的相关问题,并对平准基金是否应该建立提出自己的看法.     

抓紧设立股市平准基金

王连洲:建立平准基金是需要的很多国家都采取了一切必要的措施来应对此次金融动荡,中国难以独善其身,也在采取力度较大的财政和货币政策。在这种情况下,建立股市平准基金以平抑股市的动荡波幅,保证股市的稳健运行,我觉得是需要的。平准基金根据市场的表现适时吞吐,可以起到调节和平衡市场的作用。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…