Effects of trade and agricultural policies on the structure of the U.S. tomato industry

Over the last few decades, accelerated growth of Mexican tomato imports to the United States has caused several trade disputes with U.S. growers. A data-driven approach was used to analyze trade flows in the tomato industry from 1970 to 2015 and all structural changes to policy interventions implemented during the same period were linked. Tests for endogenous breakpoints reveal that NAFTA and trade pricing policies are two of the main factors that caused structural changes in the tomato industry in 1992 and 1999. While U.S. agricultural policies sought to protect domestic tomato producers, they did not stop Mexican tomatoes from taking an important share of the U.S. market. Mexican imports to the United States, especially post-NAFTA, have a high explanatory power for U.S. domestic production.     

参与全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链提升影响的实证研究——基于出口复杂度的分析

本文通过102个主要国家的SITC五位码贸易数据计算了我国2001—2009年24个制造业行业的出口复杂度(ESI),以此衡量各行业在全球价值链中的地位,并实证检验了全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链地位的影响。研究发现,总体而言,全球生产网络促进了我国制造业价值链提升,资本密集度和高技术资本密集度也可以显著提高价值链地位,但经济自由度、研发对我国制造业价值链提升的积极作用并不显著。进一步的研究发现,全球生产网络对我国制造业价值链地位的影响存在显著的行业差异性,具体表现为,与以零部件贸易为主的行业相比,全球生产网络对价值链提升的积极影响在以半成品贸易为主的行业中更为显著;在资本技术密集型行业中,全球生产网络有助于提升我国制造业的价值链地位,但在劳动密集型行业和资本密集型行业中这一作用并不明显。     

数字贸易赋能制造业质量变革机制与效应——来自跨境电子商务综合试验区的准自然实验

数字贸易已经成为全球发展的趋势。本文使用2009~2020年沪深A股制造业上市公司,以跨境电子商务综试区设立为“准自然实验”,探究数字贸易赋能制造业质量变革的作用机制与效应,结果发现:(1)设立跨境电子商务综试区能够显著提高企业全要素生产率,数字贸易推动制造业企业质量升级;(2)机制分析发现,数字贸易使得企业能获得和使用市场中更多的信息来满足消费者,提升了企业研发创新能力,进而提升企业质量。数字贸易对出口企业质量升级的影响大于非出口企业,数字贸易对两者的影响途径存在差异;(3)异质性分析表明,政治资源诅咒与基础设施限制,使数字贸易对非国有企业和高互联网发展水平制造业企业质量升级的影响更加明显;(4)数字贸易赋能制造业升级具有出口提升效应,数字贸易提升了制造业企业出口产品质量、产品种类与海外市场。本文结论对理解数字贸易在我国制造业质量改革中发挥的作用,以及数字贸易政策实践具有借鉴意义。     

Domestic Market Structure and Performance in Global Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence from U.S. Food Manufacturing Industries

This paper formally articulates Porter's hypothesis that the degree of competition in domestic markets is positively linked to performance in international markets. Hypotheses are tested using measures of the trade performance of U.S. food manufacturing industries as proxies for international competitiveness. Empirical results are generally consistent with Porter's hypothesis; net export share is negatively related to industry concentration. The competitiveness of agricultural inputs, R & D intensity, and trade barriers of other countries were also found to be important determinants of the performance of these industries in global markets.     

基于灰色关联度的能耗强度影响因素分析

日益严重的能源短缺和环境污染对降低能耗强度提出了更高的要求。本文分析了产业结构、城镇化水平、能源消费结构、能源转化效率、能源价格和对外贸易结构对能耗强度的作用机理,并进行了因果关系检验。建立了基于灰色关联度的能耗强度影响因素模型,得出在这6个因素中,与能耗强度的关联度由大到小分别是能源价格、产业结构、能源消费结构、能源转化效率、城镇化水平和对外贸易结构。根据模型结果,提出了合理制定能源价格,加快产业结构转变,改变能源结构,提高能源转化效率和城镇化水平的建议。     

贸易便利化对我国汽车行业出口的影响及贸易潜力研究——基于跨国面板数据模型的实证分析

在国际贸易繁荣的景象下时有贸易保护主义的存在，推动贸易便利化成为大势所趋。本文利用与我国汽车行业贸易最密切的47个国家为样本实证研究得出，贸易便利化4个一级指标对我国汽车行业出口的影响从大到小依次为电子商务、口岸效率、海关环境、规制环境。然后利用跨国面板数据进行实证研究表明贸易便利化对我国汽车行业出口贸易有显著影响，并且通过提高贸易便利化来推动贸易只在“出口不足”的国家有效。     

中韩贸易结构分析

本文利用产业内贸易（Intra-Industry Trade)，产业间贸易（Inter-Industry Trade)的理论分析了10年来中韩之间的贸易，并得到以下结论：过去10年间，中韩贸易额迅速增加，而在两国贸易总量的快速增加中，工业产品贸易起了主导作用，其中工业产品的产业内贸易的比重持续增加，并对两国贸易的迅速增长起了重要作用。而且，在工业产品的产业内贸易中，与同质产品的横向产业内贸易相比，质量与价可有所差异的垂直产业内贸易起了主导作用。考虑这些倾向，中韩贸易结构在表面上看来产业内贸易的比率较高，但是实际上保持着由资源禀赋条件所决定的产业间贸易的特征。     

Network positioning and R&D activity: a study of Italian groups

Traditionally, R&D studies focus on organisational characteristics and internal context factor effects on a firm's R&D activities. This paper extends previous research by analysing firm–level R&D expenditures in the wider context of inter–organisational networks. Using sample of 2002 manufacturing firms in Italy, it provides evidence that R&D intensity is linked to a firm's positioning within an industrial group's hierarchy. Further tests on the antecedents of R&D expenditures are carried out in relation to the effects of firm characteristics and industry factors. Important findings include a significant and positive association between R&D intensity and the firm's size, performance, intangible assets and industry concentration. These findings suggest that, in addition to firm–level factors and its market environment, network resources and organisation may play an important role in driving the intensity of the firm's R&D expenditures.     

河北省加工贸易发展探析

加工贸易是我国对外贸易的重要组成部分和利用外资的重要方式,加工贸易对促进我国经济增长、扩大就业及推进我国工业化进程做出了显著的贡献。与东部沿海发达省市相比,河北省加工贸易无论在规模总量、发展速度上都处于非常低的水平,为此应该在加强河北省软硬环境建设、制定合理的产业政策、鼓励民营企业开展加工贸易、促进加工贸易产业集群的建立、鼓励开展境外加工贸易等方面采取措施,以促进加工贸易的发展。     

工业轻重结构变化对能源消费的影响

本文应用因素分解方法,计算了1993—2005年工业部门内部轻重结构变化对能源消费和能源强度的影响,发现重工业比例每增加一个百分点,则能源消费增加约1000万吨标煤;总体上看,工业轻重结构的变化对工业能源强度和单位GDP能耗的影响小于部门强度因素,但近几年,重工业比例的增加对工业能源强度的影响很大,2003年工业能源强度反常上升,78%都可以归因于这一因素。在此基础上,笔者提出了一个能源强度分析的框架。     

数字经济背景下ICT货物贸易的影响因素分析——以"一带一路"沿线国家(地区)为例

本文在阐述“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)ICT(信息通信技术)货物贸易现状的基础上,利用2007~2019年贸易流量数据与空间杜宾模型,实证分析贸易格局与国家产业基础、资源禀赋、营商环境等因素的关系。研究发现:(1)“一带一路”沿线国家(地区)ICT货物贸易呈现出两边高-中间低的空间格局,产业基础是主要影响因素,并存在正向的空间溢出效应;(2)改善本国营商环境、提高城市化水平、扩大经济体量是每个沿线国家(地区)改变其ICT贸易格局的有利举措。同时需要注意对外直接投资、汇率及关税的调节作用,重视经济合作组织的影响;(3)我国应充分发挥贸易的直接和间接效应,积极拓展ICT产业新型基础设施建设,满足人们日益增长的带宽需要及通信需求。     

The Welfare Consequences of Mixed Environmental Policy Instruments with Voluntary Provision

This article evaluates the welfare consequences of a mixed regulatory framework with a voluntary cap‐and‐trade program and intensity standards using data from the Texas electricity industry. I construct and estimate a structural model of the compliance choices of power generating units to recover their abatement costs. Then I simulate for the counterfactual equilibrium under a mandatory cap‐and‐trade regulation. Results show that the mixed policy framework mainly benefits generating units with small capacity and high abatement costs. However, a mandatory cap‐and‐trade regulation with redistribution policies could bring in substantial Pareto improvement.     

对外贸易与中国制造业发展：基于可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的模拟分析

运用CGE模型模拟分析了对外贸易对我国制造业主要行业的产出、收益及投资水平的作用效果。分析结果显示,制造业产出、收益和投资变化率与对外贸易变化率呈正相关;除了金属行业的收益增长率在贸易小幅增长时,其行业的收益率高于贸易的增长率以外,其余行业的贸易的增长率均大于各行业收益增长率,低于投资增长率;而贸易的小幅增长对于纺织业、金属行业、炼焦、煤气和石油加工业的收益水平的提升更有利;贸易的高度增长对于具有增长潜力的机械行业更有利;对于食品制造业、化学行业、非金属矿物制品业来讲贸易的适度增长对行业发展更有利。由此提出在大力发展制造业贸易的同时,要针对各行业对贸易的不同敏感程度,合理的调整产业政策,发挥技术创新能力,以此提升制造业的贸易利得。     

中国制造业最优环境规制强度的选择——基于绿色全要素生产率的视角

按照污染排放强度,本文将中国28个制造业部门分为重度污染产业、中度污染产业和轻度污染产业三大类,在测算1999—2009年三大产业部门环境规制强度和绿色全要素生产率的基础上,利用面板数据模型对环境规制与绿色全要素生产率的关系进行检验,力图从促进生产率的角度找出不同产业最优环境规制强度的拐点。研究结果表明:重度污染产业当前环境规制强度相对合理,能够促进产业绿色全要素生产率提高、技术创新和效率改进;中度污染产业环境规制强度较弱,环境规制与绿色全要素生产率、技术创新和技术效率的关系呈"U"型,相对于生产率和技术创新而言技术效率可以更早地突破"U"型拐点;轻度污染产业环境规制强度与三者的关系也呈"U"型,相对于生产率和技术效率而言,技术创新能够更早突破"U"型拐点。在制定适当的环境规制强度同时,政府应推进环境规制政策从控制型向激励型转变,诱导企业进行技术创新,实现环境和经济发展的双赢。     

我国先进装备制造业全要素生产率及影响因素分析——基于产业组织视角

本文基于先进装备制造业上市公司2006～2015年的数据，使用DEA-Malmquist方法计算了我国先进装备制造业的全要素生产率，结果表明，考察期内我国先进装备制造业的全要素生产率在震荡中有所提升，东部地区先进装备制造业的全要素生产率提升幅度大于西部。以此为基础，基于产业组织的角度分析了先进装备制造业全要素生产率的影响因素，研究发现，人力资本水平、R&D经费投入、宏观经济形势、社会固定资产投资情况、对外贸易依存度以及科技劳动力对全要素生产率产生正向显著影响。最后针对本文结论提出相关建议。     

The Gravity of Intermediate Goods

Review of Industrial Organization - One of the puzzles of the gravity literature is the persistent effect of distance on trade flows, despite the dramatic fall in trade costs during the last few...     

我国汽车行业出口贸易的影响因素及出口潜力研究——基于面板数据模型的实证分析

自新中国成立以来,我国汽车行业经过了几十年的发展,现在已经开始大量走出国门。本文利用与我国汽车贸易最密切的34个国家,通过构建扩张的引力模型,对影响我国汽车出口的因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：距离、GDP、互惠贸易、总产量等都对我国汽车行业出口贸易有显著影响。在此基础上,对我国汽车行业的出口潜力进行预测,并提出相应的对策建议。     

中国对外贸易自然资本流向及其影响因素——基于I-O模型的生态足迹分析

自然资本指商品和服务所内涵的生态价值,以生态足迹(EF)为测度。本文采用投入产出法(I-O)测算中国1992—2007年对外贸易EF值,并运用结构分解分析(SDA)法分析中国土地(能源)强度、技术水平、净出口规模对EF净出口的影响。结果表明:1992—2007年,中国始终是实际用地的净出口国,自2005年起,中国从虚拟用地净进口国转变为虚拟用地净出口国,EF净出口总量在波动中不断增长,反映中国生态资源呈现流失持续加剧的趋势。土地(能源)强度与技术水平的变化对EF净出口的抑制作用有所增强,但影响程度十分有限,商品与服务净出口规模的迅猛增长是导致EF净出口增长的主要因素。     

Investigating the impacts of time delays on trade

Time delays due to inefficient customs and administrative procedures have become a leading non-tariff barrier (NTB) that restrict international trade and impair social welfare. This paper investigates how time delays affect product quality, product price, trade flow, and social welfare, using data on the days it takes to clear customs in 96 countries. We explore the impacts of time delays on product quality and price with different levels of perishability. We find that longer time delays at the border would significantly decrease highly perishable agricultural products' quality and price. We also find that for highly perishable agricultural products, improved and simplified customs delays would increase trade flows and social welfare of importing countries.     

The political economy of a productivist agriculture: New Zealand dairy discourses

The New Zealand dairy industry faces political and commercial pressure to improve its environmental performance on the one hand while maintaining economic efficiency and commercial competitiveness in a global marketplace on the other. The growing scale and intensity of dairy production have caused significant cumulative environmental impacts. The industry response to political pressures for improved environmental performance has involved a narrow focus on water quality and pasture management. It is consistent with an approach which seeks to maintain size and industrial leverage in the face of global trade competition. This paper explores the productivist constructions of environmental management by the New Zealand dairy industry in the context of global economic competition and notes an alternative response inspired by an ethic of sustainability. It suggests that despite global pressures of economic competition, it is possible to incorporate non-material values into farm management provided these are recognised and rewarded.