抓住人民币变化良机促进产业升级

人民币兑美元中间价自从7月16日681连续下跌至8月7日的686，而人民币兑欧元继续升值，中间价已经达到今年2月以来最低点10．6012。可见7月至今，欧元兑人民币汇率已经下跌2000余个基点，100日元兑人民币也滑落差1000多个基点，人民币兑美元贬值400多个基点。致使今年名义有效汇率升值4．5％，但实际有效汇率仅升值3．6％，反映人民币汇率与一揽子货币挂钩趋势有所减弱。     

人民币升值与我国跨国企业外汇经营风险管理策略

一、人民币升值与跨国企业外汇经营风险 自2005年7月21日,我国宣布人民币对美元一次性升值2%,改革汇率生成机制以来,人民币兑美元的汇率基本步入了不断升值的通道,1美元兑人民币的汇率由去年7月22日的8.2765升值到今年2月22日的8.0497,升值幅度达2.74%.随着中美贸易顺差的不断增加,两国之间的贸易摩擦不断加剧,美国政府要求人民币升值的呼声越来越高,人民币继续升值将不可避免.     

人民币汇率“破七”之际更须关注汇率逆转风险

人民币对美元汇率中间价“破七”已于4月10日成为现实，6．992元人民币兑1美元的汇率创造了2005年汇改以来的人民币汇率新高纪录。至此，按汇改前人民币对美元比价8．2765：1计算，人民币对美元累计升值幅度已经超过侣％，市场上对人民币进一步升值的预期更加强烈。然而，一个后起工业化经济体的汇率调整很少能够是单向的升值，尽管在长期内人民币兑美元无疑会进一步出现较大幅度升值，     

人民币升值与我国跨国企业外汇经营风险管理策略

一、人民币升值与跨国企业外汇经营风险 自2005年7月21日，我国宣布人民币对美元一次性升值2％，改革汇率生成机制以来，人民币兑美元的汇率基本步入了不断升值的通道，1美元兑人民币的汇率由去年7月22日的8．2765升值到今年2月22日的8．0497，升值幅度达2．74％。随着中美贸易顺差的不断增加，两国之间的贸易摩擦不断加剧，美国政府要求人民币升值的呼声越来越高。人民币继续升值将不可避免。     

人民币升值趋势及对广东产业影响分析

一、汇率改革开启人民币升值趋势2005年7月21日,中国人民银行宣布：自该日19时起,美元兑人民币交易中间价格调整为1美元兑8．11元人民币,与原来的1美元兑8．28元人民币比较,人民币升值了2．1％。虽然这次人民币的升值幅度远低于国内外的预期,     

人民币升值的原因及对我国经济的影响

正一、引言2005年7月21日,中央人民银行发布公告:自当日起,人民币汇率以市场供求为基础,按照中国对外经济贸易的国家和地区构成,参考一揽子货币——美元、欧元、韩元、日元等进行调解,实行有管理的浮动汇率制度。公告发布当天,美元兑人民币的汇率由汇改前的8.27降到了8.11,人民币一天就升值了1.9%,从该天开始人民币对美元就一直处于稳步升值的趋势中。2006年上半年,美元兑人民币的汇率跌破8元关口;此后人民币的升值速度更快。2008年4月10日美元兑人民币的汇率中间价为6.9920,美     

芝麻开门：全球超额流动性涌入股市

破冰：人民币单边升值 2005年7月21日，人民币汇率开始破冰，汇率形成机制从盯住美元转向参考一篮子货币，市场力量在汇率决定中的作用增强，人民币兑美元的基本汇率呈现出单边升值格局。     

人民币升值，几家欢乐几家愁

人民币每升值1%,棉纺织、毛纺织、服装行业的利润率将分别下降3.19%、2.27%和6.18 06年5月15日美元兑人民币汇率“破8”(国家外汇管理局公布的美元兑人民币的中间价跌破了8元大关)后,人民币兑美元的升值已呈现加速跑态势。在不长的时间段内,人民币兑美元连破7.8800～7.8300六     

人民币升值对实施国际金融组织贷款项目的影响

进入2008年以来，人民币升值步伐明显加快，人民币对美元累计升值幅度已经超过4％。而按照2005年7月汇改时8．11的汇率计算，累计升值已超过15％。2006年5月15日，美元兑人民币价格首度“破8”；2007年10月24日，美元兑人民币价格降至7．5元；2008年4月10目，美元兑人民币价格进入了“6”时代。     

财经要闻

人民币汇率明年可能达1美元兑7元根据摩根士丹利报告,人民币实际汇率升值幅度已经远远超过10%。自2005年初至今,人民币名义汇率升值9.9%,人民币实际汇率已经升值了17.0%,这意味着人民币2/5的升值"不声不响"。"人民币已经充分定价,但还需要勉为其难地去迎合‘贪得无厌’的市场预期—1年之内达到1美元兑人民币7元。"摩根士丹利首席货币经济师任永力说。     

Pass-through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China＇s Inflation： An Empirical Investigation

The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.     

国内价格的汇率传递性——基于VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用VAR模型研究了我国国内价格的汇率传递性。VAR模型的脉冲反应函数显示,存在人民币汇率对国内价格的不完全传递性,但是,传递弹性极低,进口价格指数的汇率传递弹性要强于消费价格指数的汇率传递弹性,且进口价格指数向消费价格指数传导逐渐衰减。因此,通过汇率升值来抑制通胀效果并不理想,从紧的货币政策才是医治通胀的良药。     

Managing the renminbi: should China peg to a trade‐weighted basket?

Pegging the renminbi (RMB) to the US dollar since 1994 has characterised China's exchange rate policy under a fixed peg or appreciating crawling peg. The current policy, announced in June 2010, of ‘floating with reference to a basket’ made the RMB 25 per cent stronger against a trade‐weighted basket by early August 2015, while it was 10 per cent stronger against the US dollar. Thus, 14 percentage points arose from changes in the cross rates of the other currencies, notably from the fall of the euro since December 2014. Devaluation of the RMB by 3 per cent in August 2015 just covered the effective appreciation since December 2014. Effects of the cross rates of other currencies could be eliminated by managing the external value of the RMB with reference to a genuine trade‐weighted basket. This could be a suitable intermediary exchange rate regime for China, as the risks associated with free floating are still great. Diversifying further the currency composition of the foreign exchange reserves and other foreign assets of the Chinese government, from US dollars towards euro and yen assets, would be a natural parallel shift. The euro–US dollar–yen exchange rates in late summer 2015 may offer a good opportunity to carry out this move.     

人民币汇率与通货膨胀的关系问题思考

2006年国内两大经济现象:物价上涨和人民币汇率的升值成为国内许多学者谈论的主要话题。本文从不同角度来说明这两种现象发生的原因及其关系。对于这种货币对内贬值而对外升值的特殊情况已不能单纯的用传统的“购买力平价理论”来解释了。另外,我国的通货膨胀属于结构性通货膨胀,也不能简单地和汇率问题联系在一起。只有对内疏导通货膨胀压力,削弱长期贬值倾向,对外平衡贸易收支,化解短期升值压力,才能改善人民币现在这种进退两难的困境。     

人民币升值对我国贸易收支的影响

自2005年7月21日,中国人民银行宣布人民币升值2%,达到8.11:1水平,本文结合这次人民币汇率改革的原因,主要从人民币升值出口弹性小于1,使出口价格提高的幅度超过了出口数量减少的幅度,而加工贸易是推动我国贸易增长的主要动因,加工贸易顺差是占我国外贸顺差的比重逐步上升等方面来分析人民币汇率变动对我国贸易收支的影响,总体上看,人民币升值不会改变中国贸易持续顺差的基本格局,因而此次升值对我国的国际贸易收支长期而言是看好的。     

Exchange Rate Pass-through in China

During the second half of 2007 and early part of 2008 when there were intense inflationary pressures in China, RMB appreciation was advocated as a means of helping to curb inflation. The effectiveness of appreciation in controlling inflation depends on the impact of exchange rate movements on import and domestic prices. Our analysis finds fairly large and speedy exchange rate pass-through （ERPT） to import prices： 50 and 60percent for the short run and long run, respectively. However, the degree of ERPT decreases along the price chain from upstream to downstream prices. ERPT for consumer prices, the most downstream prices, is much milder and has substantial lags. A 10-percent rise in the nominal effective exchange rate will dampen consumer prices by 1.1 percent within a year, with very little pass-through in the first half year, and by 2.0percent over the long run. These findings, particularly the ERPT to consumer prices, suggest that RMB appreciation can help to reduce inflationary pressures over the longer term. However, it is unlikely to provide rapid relief to the current round of high inflation because of the long lags in ERPZ. The RMB needs to strengthen in effective terms to exert the desired dampening impact on prices.     

人民币汇率传递对我国物价水平影响的实证分析:2005～2008

本文考察了2005年7月至2008年2月期间人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响。研究表明,人民币名义有效汇率变动对进口价格的传递是不完全的,当人民币名义有效汇率每变动一个百分点时,进口价格指数仅变化0.22个百分点;人民币名义有效汇率与国内物价水平存在负相关性,这与以往的研究结论恰好相反,对此,本文从人民币升值预期和人民币均衡汇率两个视角作了解释;全球商品价格指数并非影响我国国内物价水平的最重要因素,我国经济体具备较强的抵御外来冲击的能力。     

Pricing to Market： Chinese Export Pricing to the USA after the Peg

In July 2005, the Chinese Government unpegged the RMB from the US dollar. As the RMB has followed a remarkably predictable appreciation over time, I examine the price of Chinese exports to the USA after unpegging the exchange rate. Results suggest that the Chinese industries with greater import market share were able to raise their prices after the removal of the pegged exchange rate regime; however, over time there is a significant deflationary trend. Chinese export prices tended to decrease under an unanticipated RMB appreciation; this effect was more pronounced for industries with more pricing flexibility. This suggests that Chinese exporters are consistently ＂pricing to market＂ and thus creating a significant foreign exchange policy implication. Specifically, a more flexible exchange rate regime will likely have little impact on the prices of Chinese exports to the USA but might increase the profit volatility of Chinese firms.     

中国外汇储备形势与对策思考

中国外汇储备最近连续三年年外汇储备增量超过2000亿美元,目前储备总量已达一万亿美元。高额外汇储备对外汇管理提出挑战,外汇储备的过度增长更对人民币币值稳定、货币政策效果具有重要影响。要正确处理当前外汇储备问题,必须提高储备存量管理水平,遏制储备过快增长。要正确处理外汇储备与货币政策、人民币币值的勃论关系,必须完善人民币汇率形成机制,改革强制结售汇制度。     

Anomaly in China＇s Dollar-RMB

Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar-RMB forwards and the Shanghai lnterbank Offered Rate from Oetober 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper explains the cause of this anomaly. Deviations in the forward market are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China＇s State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy.