隧道行为与盈余管理——基于我国家族上市公司的实证研究

本文利用"隧道行为"理论解释我国家族上市公司的盈余管理活动。通过对2002-2004年间我国家族上市公司样本的实证检验,结果发现,控制性家族控制权偏离现金流量权的程度越大,公司盈余管理幅度越高。这说明控制性家族有动机操纵盈余以隐藏其掏空公司资源的"隧道行为",从而补充了现有对公司盈余管理动机的研究。     

多个大股东股权结构对股权代理成本的影响

本文利用多元线性回归方法分析2010年具有多个大股东股权结构上市公司的代理成本,分析发现控制股东的控制权和现金流量权均是影响股权代理成本的重要因素,控股股东的现金流量权和控制权与股权代理成本之间负相关;次大股东的控制权和现金流量权与股权代理成本正相关;大股东的控制权和现金流量权制衡度与代理成本正相关;管理层持股比例与股权代理成本之间呈显著负相关。     

政府控制、控股股东两权分离与过度投资

本文以我国2004年-2010年沪深A股非金融类上市公司为样本,基于终极控制人性质和政府控制层级视角检验终极控制权与现金流权分离对公司过度投资行为的影响.研究发现,终极控制权与现金流权的分离程度越大,公司的过度投资行为越严重;政府控制公司尤其是地方政府控制公司更可能发生过度投资行为;且在政府控制公司尤其是地方政府控制公司中,终极控制权与现金流权导致的过度投资行为更加严重.     

我国民营上市公司控制权特征的统计分析

本文从终极控制人视角,对我国民营上市公司控制权获取途径、实施控制方式以及现金流权和控制权分离程度进行了统计分析,结果表明我国民营上市公司三分之二以上的终极控制人选择通过买壳上市等途径来获得上市公司的控制权。在控制方式上,我国民营上市公司终极控制人普遍采用金字塔持股方式、指定管理者等方式来加强对上市公司的控制。这些控制方式的运用,使得我国民营上市公司的现金流权与控制权发生了较大程度的分离。     

控股股东“掏空”行为影响因素的实证研究

以我国发生关联方并购重组交易的上市公司为样本,实证分析了控股股东"掏空"行为的影响因素。研究发现,公司第一大股东较高的持股比例和负债均与控股股东的"掏空"行为负相关,二者可在一定程度上减少控股股东的"掏空"行为;公司的盈利能力、发展能力和自由现金流量均与控股股东的"掏空"行为正相关,说明了控股股东"掏空"行为存在的普遍性。研究还表明,上市公司的上市年限越长,发生控股股东"掏空"行为的可能性越小;资产规模大的公司和ST/PT公司更容易遭到其控股股东的"掏空"。     

企业集团、所得税改革和公司真实盈余管理北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文以2008年的所得税改革为契机,分析了企业集团上市公司与非企业集团上市公司的盈余管理行为的差异。研究发现,在面临税率下降的情况下,与非企业集团相比,企业集团公司在进行盈余管理时更倾向于选择真实盈余管理。基于债务契约、资本市场压力、政治成本和代理成本的分析结果进一步显示,非税成本低、非国有产权背景和现金流权与控制权两权分离程度高的企业集团的负向真实盈余管理程度更高。本文的研究结论可为税收征管、证券市场监管以及投资者投资等提供依据。     

控制权及投资者保护对掏空风险的影响——基于融资规模的经验证据

基于中国上市公司融资规模数据对上市公司的控制权与掏空风险的关系进行了实证分析,并探讨了投资者保护对掏空风险的抑制作用。研究发现:与国家终极控制的上市公司相比,私人终极控制的上市公司中掏空风险更高,因而融资规模显著高于前者;控股股东持股比例越高,掏空上市公司的动机越小,从而导致上市公司融资规模越低;其他大股东的制衡能力越强,控股股东掏空上市公司的可能性越小,因而上市公司融资规模越低;投资者保护水平越高,越能起到抑制掏空风险的作用。     

终极控制、治理环境与盈余管理——基于中国上市公司非货币性交易的分析

本文以发生非货币性交易的上市公司为研究样本，结合企业终极产权性质和公司所处治理环境的影响，对上市公司盈余管理进行分析。研究得出：不同终极产权性质的上市公司利用非货币性交易方式进行盈余管理，其会计行为不具有显著差异；而终极控制权比例和公司所处治理环境则是影响上市公司盈余管理的重要变量。同时本文的检验结果表明，我国上市公司利用非货币性交易进行盈余管理是基于配股动机、扭亏动机和被特别处理动机。     

上市公司控制权转移中的财富效应分析——以啤酒花控制权转移为例

基于控制权转移市场理论，本文以1999年发生控制权转移的上市公司啤酒花（600090）为例，对上市公司控制权转移中的财富效应进行了实证分析，认为控制权转移并没有给上市公司带来绩效的改进，反而使收购方股东通过获得上市公司控制权进行“掏空”，即通过担保贷款、关联方交易等方式从上市公司和中小股东处获取了巨额财富。     

终极控制股东影响企业盈余质量的机理研究——基于2005-2008年中国制造业上市公司的数据

本文选取中国制造业上市公司2005-2008年的1862个非均衡样本为对象,对上市公司终极控制股东影响企业盈余质量的机理进行了研究。研究发现,终极控制股东影响企业盈余质量的动机是股东间利益冲突,其前提是金字塔式股权结构的广泛存在。终极控制股东股权投资成本的差异使得我国上市公司偏好股权融资。研究还发现,终极控制股东的性质及其对上市公司的控制均影响企业盈余质量。     

分析师的现金流预测有用吗——基于信息供给的视角

文章考察了证券分析师现金流预测行为对盈余预测质量的影响。研究发现,相对于没有现金流预测的公司,有预测的公司其盈余预测质量更高;现金流预测的次数越多,盈余预测质量越高;以上关系在盈余波动大、经营活动现金流波动大的公司更加明显。这说明我国分析师提供现金流预测信息的确有用,能够帮助分析师改善其盈余预测质量。文章的发现具有重要的实践价值,能够帮助投资者了解分析师现金流预测对盈余预测的影响,从而更有效地利用证券分析师报告进行决策。     

The Difference between Earnings and Operating Cash Flow as an Indicator of Financial Reporting Fraud*

This paper examines the relation between earnings and operating cash flow to derive and test an indicator of financial statement fraud. Accrual measurement concepts indicate that financial statement fraud should be associated with high levels of earnings relative to operating cash flow. We demonstrate that the excess of earnings over operating cash flow is extreme in most fraud cases in years immediately prior to the fraud discovery based on a sample of 56 fraud cases from 1978 to 1991. We compare the distribution of the earnings minus operating cash flow variable for fraud firms with that for a sample of 60,453 firm-years for firms listed on COMPUSTAT. We test a logistic regression model in which the discovery/nondiscovery of fraud is the dependent variable, and earnings minus operating cash flow is the explanatory variable. Other control variables are included in the model based on prior studies. Results are consistent with expectations derived from accrual measurement theory. We then examine the predictive ability of the model using our sample of fraud firms and a sample of nonfraud firms in the same four-digit SIC code industries. Observations for the fraud firms are for the fiscal year prior to the discovery of fraud. Observations for the nonfraud firms are for the same fiscal years as the fraud firms in the same industries. The predictive ability of the model, including the excess of earnings over operating cash flow, is substantially higher than the predictive ability of the model omitting this variable. We conclude that the earnings-operating cash flow relation provides important information for those interested in identifying financial statement fraud, especially when considered in conjunction with other factors associated with fraud risk.     

Accounting Information and CEO Compensation: The Role of Cash Flow from Operations in the Presence of Earnings*

We examine the role of cash flow from operations (CFO) in chief executive officer (CEO) cash compensation. We predict that CFO is contract‐relevant in the presence of earnings, and more so when (1) the quality of earnings relative to the quality of CFO as a measure of performance is low and (2) the need for CFO as a financing source is high. Our analysis is motivated principally by normative arguments and anecdotes from financial disclosures linking CFO to managerial effort and contracts, notwithstanding the traditional role of earnings in performance measurement. We find that the weight of CFO in the compensation model is positive and significant in the presence of earnings and stock returns. We also find that the relative quality of CFO compared with that of earnings has a positive (negative) impact on the weight of CFO (earnings). We further find that the relative weight of CFO is enhanced substantially when enterprise activities crucially depend on internally generated cash flow. These findings are unaltered when we include CEO age, firm size, and risk in the model and allow the coefficients to vary across industries.     

对我国在采矿权评估中引用模糊实物期权法的探讨

在采矿权评估过程中,传统的净现值法和实物期权法存在一定缺陷,特别是管理者很难对预期现金流估计一个准确的值,而模糊理论和实物期权理论相结合的模糊实物期权定价模型克服了这个缺陷,能更加实际地反映其采矿权价值。本文首先简要介绍了采矿权评估中的贴现现金流法和实物期权法,针对其不足,提出了模糊实物期权法,并分析其理论基础,最后通过一个简单的案例介绍了模糊实物期权法在矿业权评估中的应用。     

A Comparison of Dividend,Cash Flow,and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation*

Standard formulas for valuing the equity of going concerns require forecasting payoffs to infinity but practical analysis requires that payoffs be forecasted over finite horizons. This truncation inevitably involves often-troublesome terminal value calculations. This paper contrasts dividend discount techniques, discounted cash flow analysis, and techniques based on accrual earnings when each is applied with finite-horizon forecasts. Valuations based on average ex post payoffs over various horizons, with and without terminal value calculations, are compared with ex ante market prices to discover the error introduced by each technique in truncating the horizon. Valuation errors are lower using accrual earnings techniques rather than cash flow and dividend discounting techniques. The accounting features that make a given technique less than ideal for finite horizon analysis are also detailed. Conditions where a given technique requires particularly long forecasting horizons are identified and the performance of the alternative techniques under those conditions is examined.     

On Comparing Cash Flow and Accrual Accounting Models for Use in Equity Valuation: A Response to Lundholm and O'Keefe (CAR,Summer 2001)*

A claim is commonly made that cash flow and accrual accounting methods for valuing equities must always yield equivalent valuations. A recent paper by Lundholm and O'Keefe 2001, for example, claims that, because of this equivalence, there is nothing to be learned from empirical comparison of valuation models. So they dismiss recent research that has shown that accrual accounting residual income models and earnings capitalization models perform, over a range of conditions, better than cash flow or dividend discount models. This paper demonstrates, with examples, that the claim is misguided. Practice inevitably involves forecasting over finite, truncated horizons, and the accounting specified in a model — cash versus accrual accounting in particular — is pertinent to valuation with finite‐horizon forecasting. Indeed, the issue of choosing a valuation model is an issue of specifying pro forma accounting, and so, for finite‐horizon forecasts, one cannot be indifferent to the accounting.     

Operational Restructuring Charges and Post‐Restructuring Performance*

Firms incur restructuring charges as a result of actions intended to improve their operating performance. However, there is little evidence on whether restructuring charges are associated with improved performance. We examine a sample of firms reporting restructuring in 1991‐93 and find that the restructuring firms' earnings increase over the levels immediately before restructuring. Compared with a control sample of firms that report no restructuring, the restructuring firms improve their earnings and operating income, but evidence for improvements in cash flow from operations is mixed. In regression analysis, we find that restructuring charges are significantly positively associated with post‐restructuring changes in earnings relative to the restructuring year, but this association is largely driven by firms with multiple restructurings and firms reporting losses in the restructuring year. We find no association between restructuring charges and post‐restructuring changes in earnings relative to the year before restructuring. Restructuring charges are significantly positively associated with post‐restructuring changes in operating income and cash flow from operations for firms with multiple restructurings. In summary, restructuring charges are associated with improved earnings, but our results suggest that restructuring in the early 1990s did not necessarily guarantee improved operating performance.     

终极股东的所有权、控制权与利益侵占：来自关联交易的证据

终极股东侵占上市公司进而损害广大中小投资者的利益已经成为上市公司内部重要的代理问题。本文采用中国A股市场的相关数据,从关联交易的角度实证检验了终极股东的所有权和控制权对利益侵占的影响。研究结果发现,终极股东的所有权越大,利益侵占的水平就越低;终极股东的控制权越大,利益侵占的水平就越高;终极股东控制权和所有权的分离程度越犬,利益侵占水平就越高。本文的研究提供了有关终极股东所有权、控制权与利益侵占之间关系的直接经验证据。