金融驱动因素对碳排放影响的实证分析——基于福建省的数据研究

近些年,如何控制并减少碳排放量已成为中国环境经济政策的重要研讨主题。从2003年提出的福建发展战略新定位——构建海峡西岸经济区以来,福建省在经济发展迅速的同时也带来了能源消费量的不断攀升,由此产生了许多环境问题。为长远发展考虑,要解决高投资、高耗能、高污染排放的粗放型经济发展问题,福建省必须坚持走可持续发展道路。就福建省1997-2017年的碳排放量和金融对碳减排的驱动影响进行实证分析,并对如何减少碳排放提出建议。     

Driving factors of CO2 emission inequality in China: The role of government expenditure

China has reached a consensus regarding the total control of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions; however, regional emission inequalities still exist. The reduction of carbon emissions is a public good and indicates a strong positive externality, which is difficult to solve within the market. Such reductions are highly dependent on governmental contributions. Therefore, using the Theil index and the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition approach, this paper integrates government expenditure into an analysis framework, investigating the driving factors of emission inequality and the status and changes of China's CO₂ emission inequality from 2007 to 2015, attributing emission inequality to disparities in governmental expenditures, energy consumption, and other socioeconomic factors. The empirical results show that imbalances in economic development, population distribution, and energy structure were prerequisites for a regional emission inequality, while disparities in government expenditure also played an important role. Among these factors, disparities in the expenditure structure were the main cause for emission inequality. The findings of this paper provide guidelines for the government to set carbon emission reduction quota and implement reasonable differentiated emission reduction policies.     

Global Energy and Environmental Impacts of an Expanding China

I.Introduction Rapid economic growth in China and China’s economic size have important implications for energy use and environmental outcomes in China, regionally and globally. Although?2006 The Author Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences most statistics related to China are impressive, those related to energy use and environmental problems are startling. China is currently the world’s third largest energy producer and …     

Economic development and carbon dioxide emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis

This paper investigates the driving forces, emission trends and reduction potential of China's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions based on a provincial panel data set covering the years 1995 to 2009. A series of static and dynamic panel data models are estimated, and then an optimal forecasting model selected by out-of-sample criteria is used to forecast the emission trend and reduction potential up to 2020. The estimation results show that economic development, technology progress and industry structure are the most important factors affecting China's CO₂ emissions, while the impacts of energy consumption structure, trade openness and urbanization level are negligible. The inverted U-shaped relationship between per capita CO₂ emissions and economic development level is not strongly supported by the estimation results. The impact of capital adjustment speed is significant. Scenario simulations further show that per capita and aggregate CO₂ emissions of China will increase continuously up to 2020 under any of the three scenarios developed in this study, but the reduction potential is large.     

Policy and trade issues for a future regional biofuels market in Southern Africa

ABSTRACT

This paper reviews the domestic political and legislative context surround biofuels initiatives to highlight what opportunities exist for establishing a biofuels trade network between South Africa (as an anchor market) and its neighbours, specifically in Zambia and Mozambique. By analysing global developments in major biofuel importers, reasons for policy inertia in South Africa, and recent experiences with biofuels investments, we suggest that the likelihood for a regional biofuels market developing is slender without addressing land-related challenges in producer countries and revising South Africa’s domestic legislation.     

基于电解水制氢和生物质电厂的电与甲醇联产系统

随着各国二氧化碳排放,温室气体猛增,中国提出碳达峰和碳中和目标。新能源的利用是解决环境和能源问题、降低碳排放的最有效的方法。氢能是未来能源发展的重要方向。为此,提出一种基于电解水制氢和生物质电厂的电与甲醇联产系统,通过电解水技术制取氢气和氧气,氧气用于生物质富氧燃烧电厂发电,而电厂产生的富含二氧化碳的尾气用于与氢气合成甲醇。使用Aspen对该系统进行仿真计算的结果显示,该系统年产甲醇26674 t,综合能量效率可达51.98%,氢到甲醇的转化效率为59.84%,动态回收周期为3.47年。此系统在生产电力及甲醇的同时,实现了碳的近零排放,可为中国的氢能利用技术的发展提供一定的参考。     

全球排放贸易体系:一个幻想?

目前存在一种流行的观点认为,未来应该建立一个全球范围的碳排放交易体系。本文质疑该观点,提出:1)全球排放交易体系的福利效果并不确定,可能主要能够降低的是发达国家的减排成本,对于发展中国家而言更可能造成福利下降的后果;2)各国参与全球公共物品的提供,应该根据共同但有区别责任的原则致力于形成"林达尔均衡",而不是全球排放贸易体系所代表的"瓦尔拉斯均衡";3)推动全球排放贸易体系的动力在于发达国家产业集团对规制的偏好和利益,而发达国家优先采取排放交易政策,主要是出于国内及国际政治考虑,而非因为全球福利最大化;4)发展中国家在考虑国内气候政策时面临选择的困境,需要谨慎考虑。     

中日一次能源消耗的碳排放及影响因素对比分析

中国和日本是一次能源消费大国，煤、石油和天然气消费比例较高，温室气体排放量较大。受国内能源强度、能源消费结构以及能源效率水平等因素的影响，日本国内碳减排成本远高于我国。《京都议定书》规定的国际碳减排机制为日本实现温室气体境外低成本减排提供了平台，也为我国带来了项目融资和引进环境技术的新机遇。但是，中日清洁发展机制环境合作的实践表明，国际碳减排机制对日本等发达国家实现碳减排目标的贡献较大，而对我国碳排放量的控制贡献较小。我国要想从根本上改善能源消费结构、实现碳减排，必须走低碳经济的发展道路。     

碳排放权交易政府监管的必要性与可行性分析

碳排放权交易作为一种碳减排经济刺激手段,具有双重功效。既有利于减缓气候变化,又有利于保障能源安全。然而,完全自由放任的碳排放权交易会因为市场固有的缺陷而引发金融风险,如碳排放权的社会分配不公和碳排放权交易的不完全竞争。因此,政府监管应贯穿于碳排放权交易的始终。碳排放权交易市场发育尚未成熟时,政府需要培育市场良性运行的外部条件;市场逐步成熟时,市场将取代政府起基础调节作用;市场失灵时,政府能纠正这一失灵。     

上海市居民生活用能碳排放的因素分解研究

本文运用IPCC排放因子法和扩展的LMDI因素分解模型,实证分析了上海市居民生活消费碳排放的现状、发展趋势和宏观影响因素。研究发现:(1)1989—2016年,上海市人均生活能源消费碳排放总体呈较快上升趋势,始终显著高于全国平均水平;(2)上海市碳排放结构从此前的煤炭、电力、煤气三大主体逐渐转变为电力、汽油、天然气;清洁能源的碳排放占比逐步提升;(3)上海市居民生活消费碳排放增长的主要驱动因素是收入水平效应和人口增长效应,而抑制因素依次为能源价格效应、能源技术效应、能源支出效应、消费意向效应,能源结构效应的影响作用不显著。本文据此提出相应的对策和建议,以期为上海发展低碳社会、清洁城市建言献策。     

我国钢铁产业碳减排LEAP模型情景研究

文章借助长期能源规划软件LEAP软件,采用定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法模拟四种基本情景下我国钢铁产业的能源消费总量和CO2排放总量。模拟结果表明,第一,在影响碳排放的诸因素中,粗钢产量的增加是导致CO2排放量增加的主要因素,而能源效率的提高是CO2排放强度降低的重要因素;第二,中长期来看,我国铜铁产业仍然有相当的碳减排潜力,且实现钢铁产业减排的主要途径是产业结构调整和技术进步。这将有助于更加全面地认识我国钢铁产业未来节能减排的方向,同时可以为我国相关政策部门制定钢铁产业的相关政策提供切实可行的依据。     

Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China

This paper aims to identify which provinces will be allocated more (less) of a carbon dioxide reduction burden within China's pledge to reduce its carbon intensity at the Copenhagen conference. Using an extended Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model incorporating an undesirable output, the CO₂ reduction potential and marginal abatement costs are estimated for 29 provinces over the period 1995–2007. The CO₂ Abatement Capacity Index (ACI) is constructed based on weighted equity and efficiency indexes. We find that there exists a large gap in potential reduction capability and marginal abatement cost among the eastern, middle and western regions. The eastern region has the least inefficient emission and the highest marginal abatement cost, while the western region has the largest potential reduction capability and the lowest marginal cost faced in reducing CO₂ emissions. The difference in potential CO₂ abatement among the provinces results from different industry structures, energy compositions and degrees of the openness of trade. The ACI ranking and the final allocation among provinces depend on the policy-makers' preferences regarding equity and efficiency.     

“双碳”目标下中国碳达峰预测和减排路径研究

探究“双碳”目标下中国碳达峰预测和减排路径具有重要现实意义。基于系统动力学模型和对数平均迪式指数法（LMDI）研究发现，中国碳排放量呈倒“U”形曲线，将在2035年实现碳达峰。碳排放影响因素中经济发展对中国碳排放的贡献率最大，其次是技术创新、产业结构、人口规模和能源结构。碳减排路径中，技术创新是实现碳减排承诺的关键路径，经济增长放缓将推迟中国碳排放峰值的到来。针对减排路径结果，从技术创新、经济质量、能源结构、产业结构、人口规模等方面提出针对性建议，以加速中国碳达峰进程。     

无锡市碳排放与经济发展水平的Tapio弹性脱钩分析

“花房效应”已使能源碳排放成为国内外重要的环保议题,如何在保持经济增长的同时减少碳排放成为各地区共同面临的挑战。无锡市地处苏南用能负荷中心,能源消耗量大,采用Tapio脱钩模型,以2007年为首个基数年,对无锡市2008-2016年碳排放与经济发展水平进行脱钩分析,研究发现无锡市碳排放与经济发展整体上处于弱脱钩状态,碳排放主要来自煤类能源,还有进一步向实现强脱钩转变的潜力。根据结论提出减排建议,以期为无锡市低碳城市构建提供科学参考依据。     

Carbon inequality in China: Evidence from city-level data

Carbon inequality has attracted increasing attention worldwide. Utilizing data from China's High Spatial Resolution Emission Gridded Database (CHRED), this paper presents the measured CO₂ emission inequality in China for the years 2005, 2012, 2015, and 2020. Results show that the Gini coefficients of carbon emission report a slight decrease from 0.411 to 0.385 and the distribution becomes more symmetric from 2005 to 2020. Linking carbon inequality to economic level, the positive concentration index (0.230 to 0.118) indicates asymmetricity between carbon emission and economic development. A further decomposition analysis reveals the industrial sector's uneven development, indicating that energy-intensive features can be blamed for a large proportion of carbon inequality. Our findings suggest that policymakers should not consider economic development level alone as the only indicator of the allocation of abatement, as economic structure, energy intensity, and climate conditions are all responsible for such inequality.     

The Biofuel Controversy

Summary  About a decade ago, the main OECD countries decided to promote the use of biofuels so as to reduce greenhouse gases, to contribute to energy self-sufficiency and to create additional demand for agricultural commodities. The introduction of mandatory blending requirements and lavish subsidies spurred fast adoption of this technology. In the course of 2008, the already existing controversy about the effectiveness of this strategy culminated as the resulting upward shift in demand contributed to staggering rises in food prices on world markets. It is uncertain as yet whether this will tone done current ambitions among policy makers to expand biofuel production. The paper shows that high ratios of energy prices to food prices are needed to make biofuel production profitable without the mandatory blending and subsidies. Yet, even if food-based biofuels disappeared, the issue remains that rising high energy prices will promote intensified use worldwide of land for energy crops, requiring huge amounts of mineral fertilizers and putting nature under additional pressure. In policy terms, this defines three major tasks. The first is replacing the current excise taxes on energy carriers by a uniform carbon tax, so as to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in an efficient manner, the second to prevent price fluctuations on the oil markets from destabilizing food markets, as happened in recent years. Introduction of upper limits on the use of food for biofuel could prove effective here. The third, much wider, task is to make the transition to a partly biomass based energy production possible and sustainable, that is establishing fair distribution of property and user rights over the lands, while safeguarding biodiversity and soil fertility and maintaining adequate labour standards and living conditions, also during periods that these become non-profitable following a drop in energy prices. The authors thank Lia van Wesenbeeck for her comments.     

低碳经济下上海市能源需求暨碳排放情景分析

基于2000—2010年上海市能源消耗和碳排放数据,分析了上海市能源消费现状,并根据IPCC碳排放系数计算了上海市能源消费及其导致的碳排放总量以及各产业的排放情况。采用情景分析方法,预测了2015年和2020年上海市分别在基准情景和低碳情景之下的能源消费暨碳排放情况,预测结果显示,基准情景之下上海市2015年和2020年的能源消费分别为14031.7742和16133.6646万吨、二氧化碳排放达到3.19和3.88亿吨;低碳情景下上海市2015年和2020年的能源消费分别为10834.2021和10448.7935万吨,二氧化碳排放为2.44和2.58亿吨。     

区域物流低碳化发展的思路与对策

"低碳经济"环境下,对区域物流活动的能源投入和碳排放提出更高要求,实施区域物流低碳化发展意义重大。区域物流的碳排放源主要集中于"点"和"线"两个方面,目前区域物流低碳化发展尚存在协调难度大、动力不足、成效不明显和技术支持缺乏等诸多难题,需要明确各参与主体的角色与作用、找准节能减排的切入点和重点,并转变区域物流发展模式,从寻找合适的碳排放统计方法、出台更多鼓励性减排政策、"点线"结合减少碳排放和构建区域物流低碳化发展的服务平台入手,促进区域物流和物流行业的低碳化发展。     

Economic impacts of developing a biofuel industry in Mozambique

ABSTRACT

Mozambique is one of the most promising African countries for producing biofuels and the national biofuel policy of 2009 identifies measures to incentivize biofuel production. Demand for biofuels in the Southern African Development Community is expected to increase over the next few years as 7 of its 15 member states have implemented or proposed the implementation of blending mandates by 2020. South Africa is one of these countries. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we estimate the impacts of expanding biofuel production in Mozambique under both commercial and smallholder-type farming models, including and excluding bagasse cogeneration.     

模拟统一碳排放市场的建立对我国经济的影响——基于DSGE模型

本文采用基于中国经济的DSGE模型,模拟在技术和政策的外生冲击下,建立统一碳排放市场对总产出、环境质量和CER实际价格产生的影响。分析结果表明,在政府制定好CER审核标准的前提下,短期至中期,建立统一碳排放市场具有减小总产出波动、提高环境质量以及减小CER实际价格波动的作用。而在长期,建立统一碳排放市场并不会对总产出和CER实际价格产生明显影响,却对环境有改善的作用。同时建立统一碳排放市场将会：使得财政政策的效果与未建立统一碳排放市场时的效果相反;要求政府对CER审核标准的定制更加谨慎,以应对清洁型技术可能带来的部分不利影响;对货币政策效果影响不明显。