The Value of Imputation Tax Credits on Australian Hybrid Securities

Hybrid securities are becoming an increasingly important component of the capital structure of Australian firms. While displaying characteristics of both debt and equity, one principal equity attribute of hybrids is their ability to pay franked dividends. This enables resident domestic investors to claim corporate tax payments as a credit against personal tax obligations under Australia's dividend imputation tax system. This paper estimates a value for the ‘franking credits’ that attach to hybrid securities by examining stock price changes around ex‐dividend dates. We add to the literature that examines the ex‐day price changes of ordinary shares (OS) in that the hybrid securities we examine have high dividend yields and are relatively insensitive to market movements. Therefore the signal‐to‐noise ratio is much higher than for OS. Our analysis reveals that cum‐dividend day prices on hybrid securities do not include any value for franking credits. This result is consistent with the notion that the price‐setting investor in the Australian market is a foreign investor who places no value on franking credits.     

美国股票回购动机演变对我国回购市场的启示

利用股票回购与每股收益变化之间的关系提供经济信号理论假设,随着美国公司股票回购的日益普遍,已经变得弱化或消失,股票回购的真正价值最终还是回归到股票价格与期望价值之间的经济利益。中国证卷市场上的股票回购开始于1992年,2005年成为市场新热点。在股权分置改革之时,股票回购将会成为中国资本市场新兴的金融工具。但要特别注意对于中小投资者利益的保护,完善股票回购的制度。     

Informed trading around merger and acquisition announcements: Evidence from the UK equity and options markets

This paper offers new evidence on informed trading around merger and acquisition announcements from the UK equity and options market. The analysis suggests that in about 25–33% of events there is abnormal option trading volume during the month that precedes the announcement. Such evidence is found in both call and put option volumes, is robust to different “estimation” and “event window” lengths, to different sub‐samples, and to liquidity considerations. These results support the argument that informed investors will transact in both the options and the stock market, and are comparable to results reported by the FSA in the cash market. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:703–726, 2011     

The Role of Executive Stock Options in On‐Market Share Buybacks*

The increasing use of on‐market buyback programs in Australia may not be fully explained by the typical motivations of information signaling and free cash flows offered by previous researchers. For some firms at least, management may believe the shares are overvalued. It is in this context that we examine whether managers of firms with high levels of executive stock options have an incentive to initiate buyback programs. It has been argued that managers may be motivated to undertake on‐market buyback programs in order to neutralize the dilution of earnings per share caused by their stock options, rather than for signaling purposes. Our findings are consistent with this argument because we find that the higher the proportion of executive stock options outstanding the more likely it is for firms to undertake larger on‐market buyback programs. Overall our results indicate that the existence of executive stock options influences managers' decision to implement on‐market buyback programs but that it is not the only factor that managers take into consideration.     

中国上市公司股权转让市场效应的实证研究

本文研究了中国产权改革背景下控制权市场是否有效的问题。根据2003-2004年深沪A股上市公司的214起大宗股权转让记录,本文采用事项研究法研究了股权转让对公司市场价值的影响,并进一步考察了累积非正常回报率的影响因素。本文研究发现(1)股票市场对大宗股权转让的市场反应显著为正。平均而言,股票价格在转让公告前20个交易日开始上涨至公告后一个交易日,累积非正常回报率约为1.15%;(2)转让的价格越高,向市场传达积极的信号,市场反应越好;(3)控制权转让的公司比那些不转让控制权的公司有着更好的反应。     

The Causes and Consequences of Accelerated Stock Repurchases

We examine the choice between accelerated share repurchase (ASR) and open market repurchase (OMR) as repurchase mechanisms between 2004 and 2007. For a sample of ASRs and OMRs that actually buy shares in the announcement quarter, we find that ASR firms have lower market‐to‐book ratios, less cash, but greater managerial entrenchment. Prior to repurchase, ASR firms are subject to significantly more takeover rumors than OMR firms are, and this, along with entrenchment and undervaluation, affects the choice to use ASRs. ASR firms experience positive average abnormal returns both before and after the announcement. Moreover, the latent takeover probability is significantly lower for both ASR and OMR firms (when compared with pre‐announcement levels), but the reduction for ASR firms is more pronounced. Our results suggest that repurchases, and especially ASRs, indeed make a firm a less attractive prospect for takeover.     

香港上市公司盈余公告日附近异常市场回报率研究

文章采用动态资产定价模型(conditional CAPM),避免了无风险收益率及市场风险回报率在期间可能变动的问题;研究结果并未发现盈余公告期间市场风险回报率的显著增长,却发现决定系数R2变小,这一点验证了公司公告发布日附近的期望收益更多的是由公司个别因素、而不是市场因素来决定的。同时,我们还发现异常回报率和公司规模之间的相对较弱的负相关性。     

The value of celebrity endorsements: A stock market perspective

Are celebrity endorsements worthwhile investments in advertising? To answer this question, we analyze a unique sample of 101 announcements made between 1996 and 2008 by firms listed in the USA. Internet is the main medium of communication for these announcements. We employ event study methodology and document statistically insignificant abnormal returns around the announcement dates. This finding is consistent with the notion that the incremental benefits from celebrity endorsements closely match the incremental costs due to such contracts. Further, we investigate if the announcement date return depends on a number of characteristics that are often used in the endorsement literature. As a result, we find that endorsements of technology industry products coincide with significant positive abnormal returns around the announcement dates. Finally, we find weak support for the match-up hypothesis between celebrities and endorsed products.     

The Chinese warrant bubble: A fundamental analysis

We investigate the information content in Chinese warrant prices based on an option pricing framework that incorporates short‐selling and margin‐trading constraints in the underlying stock market. We show that Chinese warrant prices can be explained under this pricing framework. On the basis of this new model, we develop a price deviation measure to quantify stock market investors' unobserved demand for short selling or margin trading due to market constraints. We find that warrant‐price deviations are driven by underlying stock valuation to a great extent. Chinese warrant prices, save for the time around expiration dates, are better characterized as derivatives than as pure bubbles.     

Recent SEC prosecution and insider trading on forthcoming merger announcements

While trading on nonpublic information is illegal, the enforcement of this law has been elusive, particularly in the area of trading in advance of merger announcements. We examine the impact of insider trading on daily stock price changes for firms identified by the SEC in the Antoniu-Newman insider trading case. Using residual analysis, the abnormal returns occuring prior to the announcement are calculated and compared with a sample of 188 typical merger candidates not identified in the Antoniu-Newman case to determine whether or not there was an unusually large market reaction prior to the forthcoming merger announcement on the subset of merger candidates involved in the court procedure.     

中国上市公司违规处理信息提前泄露了吗——来自股票流动性和融券交易的证据

本文从股票流动性和融券交易的视角出发,实证检验我国上市公司违规处理信息提前泄露的可能性。研究发现:(1)违规处理公告之前,股票超额非流动性水平和超额融券量显著为正,且与违规处理公告日的超额收益率显著负相关;(2)公告日超额收益率最低组股票的公告前超额非流动性更高,而公告日超额收益率最高组股票的公告前超额融券量更少;(3)当违规处理文件的下批日期与公告日期间隔超过10日时,公告日超额收益率较高的公司股票,其公告前的相对超额融券量显著减少,表明知情交易者占据了主导地位,处理公告的提前泄露更可能解释以上发现。本文的结果表明,监管部门应加强内部管理和提升工作效率,及时公布违规公司处理文件以减少信息提前泄露的可能性,从而有利于股票市场的健康发展。     

Valuation effects of recent corporate dividend and income trust distribution tax changes

We analyze the valuation effects of the Canadian federal government's announcement on November 23, 2005 of a reduction in the taxation of corporate dividends and the announcement on October 31, 2006 of a plan to eliminate the tax‐deductibility of income trust distributions. Though high dividend stocks and income trusts reacted positively to the 2005 announcement, the abnormal returns were greater for income trusts. Conversely, both securities reacted negatively to the 2006 announcement with the decline bigger for income trusts. The larger price reactions of income trusts and the lack of statistical significance in the cross‐sectional tests of the abnormal returns suggest that the popularity of income trusts in Canada was mostly driven by their favourable income tax status. The implications of these findings for scholarship and for practice are discussed. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Credibility of corporate announcements and market reaction: evidence from Canadian share repurchase programs

Do market participants evaluate the credibility of a firm's share repurchase announcement based on the firm's share repurchase history? Using a sample of 1,507 share repurchase programs for firms listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2005, we find that 69% of firms fail to acquire the target number of shares specified at announcement and many firms fail to repurchase any shares. We develop credibility indices and find a positive relationship between current announcement abnormal returns and completion credibility of previous announcements. We conclude that the market prices completion credibility of past share repurchase announcements in reacting to current repurchase announcements. Copyright © 2010 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What drives informed trading before public releases? Evidence from natural gas inventory announcements

This paper shows evidence of informed trading in the natural gas futures market before gas inventory announcements. We examine whether traders can predict the upcoming announcement by processing public information. The results show that the difference between the median forecast of analysts with high historical forecasting accuracy and the consensus forecast can be used to predict inventory surprises. This predictor explains some of the pre‐announcement price drift, suggesting that informed trading before the announcement is likely to be driven by superior forecasting rather than by information leakage. A simple trading strategy conditioned on the predictor would have generated an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.26.     

Market Quality around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the US and Canadian Markets

We investigate changes in market quality in the US and Canada during macroeconomic news announcements. We measure market quality in terms of returns dependence, the cost of trading, and pricing errors. Using a sample of cross‐listed stocks and macroeconomic news from both countries, we document that market quality is generally higher in the US than in Canada. The pattern of intraday serial dependence in returns reveals that it takes investors about 5 min less to react to order imbalances in the US than in Canada. We further observe that, around announcement periods, transaction costs increase more in Canada than in the US, suggesting that the US market offers better liquidity. More information is also incorporated into the US market. These results support the view that the US is a prime target for cross‐listing, and are robust to different types of assets and time specifications.     

Hat die Einführung der Abgeltungsteuer Aktienkurse beeinflusst?

This paper discusses findings of a current research project whose results indicate that the implementation of the German flat withholding tax on capital gains at the turn of the year 2008–09 led to a temporary but significant increase in trading volumes and share prices on the German stock market. As this capital gains tax reform had already been announced in 2007, corresponding market reactions imply a delayed dissemination of tax information. Hence, our results raise some doubt regarding the information-processing capacity of stock markets. This holds true especially in the following circumstances: 1) extensive trading activities of individual investors with limited information access and attention; 2) a strong focus by a large group of individual investors to a limited number of trading days (herd behaviour); and 3) limited liquidity in the market (e.g. stocks with a small market capitalisation).     

Taxes,Order Imbalance and Abnormal Returns around the ex‐Dividend day

A costly arbitrage model, developed for the Australian imputation tax system, shows that stocks paying dividends with a tax credit are likely targets for ex‐dividend arbitrage. We show that order imbalance, based on the direct observation of buyer and seller initiated trades, is a key factor in price movements around the ex‐dividend day. Buying pressure before the ex‐dividend day aimed at capturing the dividend and tax credit leads to an increase in prices that subsequently reverse in the ex‐dividend period. This effect is concentrated in those stocks distributing a tax credit with their dividend payments. The price pressure resulting from order imbalance is substantially higher around the ex‐dividend day relative to the effect observed outside this period. Our results reject the model of Frank and Jagannathan ( 1998 ) that bid‐ask bounce is responsible for the ex‐day premium and provide support for explanations based on taxes, transaction costs, and incomplete price adjustment on the ex‐day.     

Market Reaction to Information Shocks—Does the Bloomberg and Briefing.com Survey Matter?

Bloomberg and Briefing.com provide competing forecasts for prescheduled macroeconomic announcements. This study examines the accuracy of these forecasts and market reactions to announcement surprises. Our results show that the Bloomberg survey is slightly more accurate than the Briefing.com survey. More importantly, although announcement surprises based on both surveys have a significant effect on the trading activities and returns of S&P 500 futures contracts, the Bloomberg survey subsumes the explanatory power of the Briefing.com survey. The findings suggest that on average Bloomberg forecasts are more consistent with the market consensus view. In addition, we provide evidence of asymmetric market reactions to positive versus negative announcement surprises. In particular, the market reacts strongly to inflation news in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) announcements and negative shocks in housing price, personal spending, and retail sales.     

Evaluating debt repurchases What are the alternatives to investment?

A general model of debt repurchases is built which reconciles most points raised in the literature on buybacks. The inclusion of assets alternative to domestic investment is shown to be of crucial importance in the analysis and leads to the reversal of some previous results. It is shown that investment necessarily rises following a buyback, independently of the source of the funds used. The condition that determines whether or not buybacks are an attractive solution to the debtor is derived. It is shown to depend on the price at which debt can be bought and on an ‘interest differential effect’.