我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究

近20年,我国城市住宅价格经历了大幅下跌与上涨,而同期租金逐年下降,房价与租金之间的关系令人关注。本文利用1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的数据进行实证分析,结果表明北京、上海、广州和深圳的租金指数和房价指数之间不存在协整关系,说明住宅市场价格与租金不存在长期均衡关系,房价严重脱离了租金这一基本面的影响,不再遵循现值理论模型所揭示的两者之间的运行趋势,表明房价泡沫在长期积聚。为了预防市场泡沫破灭对经济体造成的严重冲击,政府应该严格监察与调控房地产市场。     

计算住宅租金所依据的住宅价值——《关于住宅租金结构构成的研究》摘要之三

上文所述,房价与房租都是房屋价值的表现形式,房价是房屋价格的基本形式,房租是房屋价格的派生形式,房租应以房价为基础来计算。如何确定计算租金所依据的住宅价值,则是研究住宅租金理论和计算方法的前提。在由计划经济体制向市场经济体制转轨的过渡期间,价格双轨制并存。由于住宅价格的形成机制不同,因而计算住宅租金相应也有两种住宅价格所反映的住宅价值作为依据。一是由市场机制形成的住宅买卖市场价格所反映的价值(含地价);再是由非市场机制形成的住宅重置完全价值(不含地价)。分述如下:一、住宅(产权)买卖市场价格反应的价值在住房市…     

住宅租金价值结构的理论探讨——《关于住宅租金结构构成的研究》摘要之一

天津市房地产经济学会于2002年9月完成了天津市房地产管理局下达的《关于住宅租金结构构成的研究》软科学课题研究项目并通过了专家委员会评审。该项研究成果以马克思主义价值论为指导,弘扬“三个代表”重要思想和“与时俱进”精神,对传统的租金结构构成理论进行了大胆地探讨,运用科学方法提出了住宅租金价值结构的新论点。开拓性地研究提出以住宅买卖市场价格为依据和以住宅重值完全价值为依据的两种新的计租办法以及房租率、地租率与房地租金率之间的变化规律。运用实证法遴选105个市场租金实例与成果测算数据相验证,偏离度均在±20%以内,较为贴近。该项成果可广泛应用于制定和调整住房租赁市场的指导租金、住房制度改革和国有房产企业化经营等领域,有较强的理论价值和实用价值。限于篇幅,将该成果的主要论点浓缩为:《住宅租金价值结构的理论探讨》、《房价与房租的比价关系》、《计算住宅租金所依据的住宅价值》、《住宅计租办法创新》、《住宅租金测算数据实证》和《住宅租金价值结构理论的应用》等6篇论文,本刊将从2003年第7期起连载,欢迎广大读者批评指正。     

房价收入比不是衡量泡沫的标准

有位作在提出我国的房地产泡沫会很快破裂论点的同时，还提出了衡量是否产生泡沫的标准，其中，第一条标准是房价收入比。最近，有篇章也坚持这一标准，并以我国许多城市的房价收入比高过所谓“国际惯例”的4～6倍为据，想用以说明我国的房地产泡沫是多么普遍和严重。还有篇章以1998～2004年美国的房价收入比和房价租金比分别提高20％和35％为据，试图证明美国的房地产出现了严重的泡沫。     

七城房价离基本面

今年以来,一方面房价快速上涨,另一方面房屋租金下跌,尤其是部分城市高端写字楼租金跌幅较大。这种现象反映出我国楼市的复杂性和特殊性。在房地产市场,房屋的租金水平体现了房屋使用价值的高低,是房价的基础。从理论上讲,商品房价格变化应与租金变化同步。     

基于向量自回归的存量住房房价租金比分析

1998年住房制度改革以来,房屋销售价格和租金均呈上涨趋势,但两者在增速上有明显的不同。本文基于动态Gordon模型,用一阶向量自回归的方法研究了8个城市房地产市场预期和非预期的房价租金比,结果表明向量自回归模型预测杭州、深圳、武汉、成都、北京的对数房价租金比效果较好,上海的房价租金比最不容易预测。未预料到的房价租金比的决定有明显的地区差异,西部地区的城市主要受租金流新信息的影响,长三角城市受收益率新信息的影响非常大,其他地区的城市主要受收益率新信息的影响。     

住宅租金测算数据实证——《关于住宅租金结构构成的研究》摘要之五

实践是检验真理的唯一标准。判断此项课题研究成果的科学性和可行性的标准,要看各类结构住宅(房地)租金测算数据与实际市场租金是否贴近。因而要用住宅租金市场价格的实例来验证。一、以住宅买卖市场价格为凭据计租办法的验证此项办法是以住宅买卖市场价格乘以相对应的土地等级同样结构房屋的房地租金率计算出住宅(房地)租金。2000年天津市商品房平均销售价格为2478元/M2,乘以八级地上新建钢混结构多层住宅的房地租金率0.64%,平均月租金15.85元/M2,与天津市2000年住宅指导租金八级地上的南开区八里台地区为16元/M2、红桥区丁字沽地区为14…     

从国际比较看房价租金

在上一期的文章中，笔者提出了一个看法，即租金的泡沫化程度远低于房价。由此，考察房价租金比，特别是考察房价租金比的历史变化，可以在一定程度上揭示房价泡沫。     

中国城市居民住房支付能力研究

虽然住宅价格是由住宅市场的供给和需求决定的,但从长期来看,住宅价格应该与城市居民家庭的住房支付能力相适应.评价住房支付能力的指标有房价收入比(PIR)和住房可支付性指数(HAI),房价收入比用于判读住房价格是否合理,而住房可支付性指数能够反映家庭购买住房的还贷能力.论文通过计算2004年我国34个主要城市的房价收入比和住房可支付性指数,对我国城市居民的住房支付能力进行了城市排序.参照国外相关指标的评价标准,论文采用Pareto累计图的评价方法,得出了我国当前房价收入比和住房可支付性指数的分布区间.论文的研究成果既可作为政府调控城市住宅市场发展的依据,也可作为居民投资置业的依据.     

买房、租房，哪种更合算？

来自市场的最新信息表明。现有不少房屋租金价格一跌再跌，可是售价却出现大幅度的上扬。房价与租价之比。被扩大至20倍以上。按目前的租售价格，想要通过出租。收回投资，至少得花上20年甚至更久的时间。     

A re-examination of housing bubbles: Evidence from European countries

This study uses data from six Eurozone countries and the United Kingdom between 1980Q1 and 2018Q4 to examine whether these countries had housing bubbles during the observed period. Whereas typical studies make strictly limited assumptions regarding interest rates, we make an unconventional argument for the necessity of testing the integration relationship between the price–rent ratio and the interest rate reciprocal to determine the existence of housing bubbles. To verify this study’s proposition, two housing bubble indicators were adopted to dynamically examine periods of housing bubbles in European countries by using a series of individual countries and panel data from Eurozone countries. According to the empirical results for individual countries, although the price–rent ratio indicates the occurrence of housing booms in the targeted countries, the evidence for housing bubbles is unclear. The dynamic bubble indicator revealed that housing bubbles occurred in France and Ireland within a short period in 1993Q3 and 2000Q2, respectively. Spain experienced two short-term housing bubbles in 1990Q1 and 2015Q1. The short-term bubbles signify that the housing markets were efficient. Once the price–rent ratio failed to converge toward the nominal interest rate, market traders’ rational behavior can immediately correct the short-term market divergence. The panel data of the Eurozone countries also reveals that simply using the price–rent ratio for examination may underestimate the correction of the housing markets. In conclusion, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of the interest rate in controlling the housing market.     

住房流动性对房价指数的影响及其定量分析

目前中国城市住房市场不稳定程度较高,这不仅体现为房价的迅速变化,而且反映在交易量的大幅波动上,后者就是住房流动性的变化。有学者研究指出,以实际交易价格为基础的房价指数可能会低估住房市场的波动程度。为了更准确地把握住房市场的运行状态,本文借鉴美国MIT的相关技术,分析了住房流动性（交易活跃程度）对房价指数的影响,并尝试将流动性信息引入房价指数当中。我们发现,住房流动性对于房价指数有较大影响,且符合人们对于市场走势的直观判断,能够较好地反映市场转折点。     

House price convergence in euro zone and non-euro zone countries

This study investigates whether single currency use increased house price convergence among various countries. First, the panel unit root test results indicate that the house prices in euro zone countries were more correlated than the house prices in non-euro zone countries. Second, the house prices in various European countries converged towards the house prices in Germany, which uses the single currency, rather than towards those in the United Kingdom, indicating that single currency use increased the influence of the German housing market on other markets. Finally, the log t regression model, a new convergence test, was employed and determined that the house prices in various European countries were not converging before 1992 but began to do so after that year. After the euro was implemented as an official currency, the house prices in various countries converged towards a consistent level. On the basis of the relative transition paths, this study determines that the differences among housing markets in various countries have continuously decreased since 1992. The empirical results indicate that the law of one price is applicable to tradable goods and that single currency use can integrate housing markets, which include non-tradable goods.     

The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries

The responsiveness of housing supply to changes in prices bears important implications for the evolution of housing prices and the speed of adjustment of housing markets. Based on a stock-flow model of the housing market estimated within an error correction framework, this paper estimates the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply in 21 OECD countries. Estimates suggest that the responsiveness of housing supply to price changes varies substantially across countries. It is relatively more flexible in North America and some Nordic countries, while it is more rigid in continental European countries and in the United Kingdom. The responsiveness of housing supply depends not only on national geographical and urban characteristics but also on policies, such as land use and planning regulations.     

Housing, taxation and retirement provision

This paper considers the tax treatment of housing and the issue of savings for retirement in the context of a simplified model that still allows key aspects of the household context to be realistically represented. A model is developed in which both housing and financial assets can be used as vehicles for household saving. Individuals face perfect capital markets and choose between owner-occupied and rented accommodations. For the model developed, it is shown that the tax advantage of owner-occupied housing is not fully removed even if imputed rents are subject to income taxation. However, deferred income taxation for both housing and savings in the form of financial assets would result in an equal treatment of tenants and owner-occupiers.     

A model of rental and owner-occupied housing

A complete model of owner-occupied and rental housing is developed. The model allows for the endogenous determination of rents, the user cost of owner-occupied housing and housing tenure choice by individuals. In the short run, structure prices are endogenous, while in the long run the size of the housing stock adjusts to equate structure prices to exogenous construction costs. Comparative static results emphasize the importance of marginal tax rates and distinguishing between the short and long run for a complete understanding of the impacts of inflation on housing markets.     

Wages and prices: Are workers fully compensated for cost of living differences?

This paper investigates the equilibrium relationship between wages and prices across labor markets. Of central interest is the extent to which workers receive higher wages to compensate for differences in the cost of living. According to the spatial equilibrium hypothesis, the utility of homogenous workers should be equal across labor markets. This implies that controlling for amenity differences across areas, the elasticity between wages and the general price level across areas should equal one, at least under certain conditions. I test this hypothesis and find that the predicted relationship holds when housing prices are measured by rents and the general price level is instrumented to account for measurement error. When housing prices are measured by housing values, however, the wage-price elasticity is significantly less than one, even using instrumental variables. Rents reflect the price paid for housing per unit of time and are arguably the superior measure. Thus, findings in this essay provide support for the full compensation hypothesis. These findings also have important implications for researchers estimating the implicit prices of amenities or ranking the quality of life across areas.     

基于“城房指数”的中国城市新建商品住房市场有效性研究

本文采用2006年1月至2009年8月我国10个大中城市“城房指数”数据,检验了新建商品住宅市场的有效性,结果显示市场无效是较为普遍的现象。进一步的研究说明,特定的市场参与者可以在无效市场中通过积极预测价格而获得更好的回报。但对一般投资者而言,由于目前调整持有房地产资产比例的投资行为将产生极高的交易费用,获得这一套利机会并不现实。如果未来我国资本市场上出现房地产衍生证券,该问题有可能得到解决,市场有效性也会得到提高。     

User costs and bubbles in land markets

In asset markets with speculative behavior, the long-run equilibrium relationship between asset prices and the discounted flow of future rents may become invalid. We distinguish short-term user costs and longer-term user costs with variables that reflect fundamentals. We show how to work around the empirical problem of measuring speculative expectations about asset price changes and derive a simple user cost formula where the asset price change in the short-term relationship comes out as the long-run change in the overall price level.