中国经济双循环耦合协调度分布动态、空间差异及收敛性研究

研究目标:测算1999～2019年中国经济“内循环”与“外循环”耦合协调度的实际水平并分析其分布动态、空间差异及收敛性。研究方法:耦合协调度模型、Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数及其分解法和β收敛模型。研究发现:考察期内,中国经济“内循环”与“外循环”之间的耦合协调度呈现稳定的上升趋势,但总体水平仍然较低,地区异质性、时间阶段性特征明显;空间差异持续扩大,主要来源是区域间差异;正空间相关关系持续而稳定;全国及四大地区经济双循环耦合协调度存在显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛过程,不同地区耦合协调度收敛位置的影响因素各不相同。研究创新:测算了中国经济双循环耦合协调度水平并分析其时空演进规律与收敛性。研究价值:对于总体把握我国经济双循环发展规律,因地制宜,精准施策,加快构建双循环新发展格局具有积极的现实意义。     

贸易增加值视角下中国制造业服务化转型的事实与解释

研究目标：把握中国制造业服务化趋势及其驱动因素。研究方法：基于MRIO模型的贸易增加值核算及结构分解分析。研究发现：如果考虑中国贸易的二元结构,则制造业服务化悖论并不存在,1995～2011年期间,中国制造业出口中的服务增加值占比由33.54%上升至33.74%,上升幅度很小,但国内服务增加值对于制造业出口增加值创造的重要性在快速提高,制造业服务化转型呈现出“以国内服务替代国外服务”的趋势;从不同贸易方式来看,制造业加工出口的国内服务化水平较低但其提升幅度大大超过了一般贸易出口;市场分割弱化了国内产业关联、粗放型发展模式导致服务部门增加值系数下降,以及来自于亚太地区出口市场的低端俘获,这些都是抑制一般贸易出口的国内服务化水平提升的主要原因。研究创新：利用OECD-ICIO区分加工贸易的数据,对中国制造业出口中的服务增加值进行再测算,并比较分析两种不同贸易方式下国内服务化转型的变动趋势及其主要驱动因素。研究价值：为促进中国制造业转型升级、提升出口利得提供参考。     

成本推动冲击和中国经济波动

本文立足近年来国内经济频繁波动的现实背景,通过构建一个包含成本推动冲击、消费偏好冲击、技术冲击以及货币政策冲击的DSGE模型,运用脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法对中国经济波动的外生冲击因素进行考察。研究发现：产出波动是由多种冲击共同推动,其中成本推动冲击贡献最大;通货膨胀波动主要是由成本推动冲击和货币政策冲击引致,消费偏好冲击和技术冲击的影响有限。进一步地,反事实模拟分析也证实了这一结论。这也揭示出近年来中国经济高速增长依附高昂成本,且经济增长方式是粗放式的典型化事实。     

省际贸易对中国经济增长的贡献研究

研究目标：考察省际贸易对经济增长的贡献。研究方法：区分结构影响与部门影响的因素分解模型。研究发现：第一,消费对中国经济增长的贡献比重在下降;省际调出因素和出口因素的贡献比重在上升。第二,1987年,省际调出仅在3个省份是经济增长的第一贡献因素;2007年,省际调出则在11个省份成为经济增长的第一贡献因素。第三,从省份视角看,尽管出口对经济增长的贡献比重在上升,但在2007年,省际调出贡献比重仍然是出口贡献比重的3.5倍;从部门视角看,省际调出的贡献比重也依然大于出口的贡献比重。第四,在将因素贡献比重变化的来源区分为结构影响与部门影响之后,不管是消费贡献比重的下降,还是省际调出和出口贡献比重的上升,部门影响均发挥着主导作用。研究创新：将省际贸易引入关于经济增长的因素分解模型。研究价值：对于目前步入“新常态”的中国经济,省际贸易可以成为未来中国经济新的增长点。     

中国与“丝绸之路经济带”主要国家经贸关系研究

探寻“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家与中国的双边贸易对其本国经济增长产生的影响，测度其与中国的贸易密集度、HM指数和贸易互补性，分析中国与沿线主要国家经贸发展的现状与潜力。研究发现：在沿线国家与中国的双边贸易中，其进口贸易、出口贸易、总贸易均可诱发该国经济增长，相比而言，对中国出口的诱发效应大于从中国进口的诱发效应；中国与沿线国的人均GDP差距、人口规模、WTO组织变量及经济自由度与沿线国家经济发展正相关，经贸成本与沿线国经济增长负相关；中国和“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家的贸易具有较高依赖度和互补性，沿线主要国家对中国出口产品的依赖程度远远高于中国市场对沿线主要国家出口产品的依赖程度。     

“中国制造”对世界经济增长的贡献及分解研究

研究目标：测度并分解了“中国制造”在全球价值链不同生产环节上对世界各区域经济增长的影响。研究方法：将中间品贸易结构嵌入全球价值链分析框架中。研究发现：中国制造业为发达国家贡献的经济产出增量大于新兴经济体国家,但是其为发达国家创造的增加值增速却显著小于新兴经济体国家。随着中国制造业的竞争力增强与技术水平提升,“中国制造”参与全球生产网络中产品内水平分工的程度也不断提高。研究创新：将“中国制造”对于世界经济的贡献进行合理测算,对其如何影响世界经济的内在机理进行深入挖掘。研究价值：为推动“中国制造”和中国经济转型升级、形成经济增长新动力提供依据和参考。     

贸易成本与中国出口产品二元边际

本文针对中国与54个主要贸易伙伴的HS六位贸易数据,在把贸易成本进行细分并构建解决“多贸易零值”问题的零膨胀负二项回归模型的基础上,研究各细分贸易成本变量对中国出口二元边际的影响,进而研究在发达国家（地区）、发展中国家（地区）和农产品、非农产品的子样本中,贸易成本对二元边际的不同影响。研究表明：经济自由度、共同边界与是否加入亚太经济合作组织（APEC）等贸易成本因素对中国出口产品扩展边际和集约边际的影响是正向的;国家距离、是否加入经济合作与发展组织（OECD）和清廉程度等贸易成本对其影响是负向的;对不同发展水平的国家（地区）来说,中国对发展中国家（地区）二元边际的提升不受距离和经济自由的限制;就不同的产品类型而言,经济自由度对中国出口农产品集约边际的影响是负向的。     

中国经济增长动力分解：有偏技术进步与要素投入增长

研究目标：从有偏技术进步和要素投入增长视角分解中国经济增长动力。研究方法：基于标准化供给面系统方法对中国1978~2015年的要素增强型CES生产函数进行估计,并扩展Solow增长核算方程重构中国经济增长动力分解框架。研究发现：国内研究在技术进步偏向识别、生产函数参数设定及估计方法应用方面存在部分偏误;修正偏误后本文发现考察期内有偏技术进步对于中国经济增长的动力支持总体强于要素投入增长,且有偏技术进步和要素投入增长内部发生了明显的动力转换;中国经济增速近期下滑主要由资本增强型技术进步减缓、资本累积速度下降和人口红利消失引致。研究创新：基于多种要素替代关系、市场假设和技术进步率框架,对中国要素替代弹性、有偏技术进步进行全面再评估,通过打开技术进步率的“黑箱”进一步分解中国经济增长动力。研究价值：为有偏技术进步识别和经济增长动力分解提供可靠框架。     

加快腹地经济发展是中国工业化中期的战略方向

中国改革开放30多年以来,工业化的先发地区和经济增长极主要位于东部沿海地区的中心城市圈,内陆地区总体上滞后于沿海地区。目前,中国工业化推进的空间态势总体上正处于从先发地区向更广阔的腹地空间加速扩散的过程。因势利导,积极有序地推进这一过程是中国经济发展未来相当长一段时期内的主要战略方向。腹地经济发展是中国经济增长多极化、均衡化、一体化、内需化的客观要求。近年来一些经济腹地的增长率已经高于曾经是前30年主要增长极的沿海中心城市经济,区域间发展差距扩大的趋势已经基本扭转。沿海中心城市同经济腹地在经济版图中的比重也正在出现后者趋向上升的局面。经济腹地各地的区位、资源和生态环境条件不同,并无同一的发展模式。必须立足各地区的具体情况,科学规划,有序推进工业化。既要避免各地政府过度干预导致经济关系扭曲,又要防止无序的掠夺性开发和盲目投资而破坏可持续发展的基础和条件。作为工业化中期战略方向的腹地经济发展,除了要实现本阶段发展目标,同时也要超前部署工业化后期的战略意图,将发展战略的未来目标定位于打造产业国际竞争力高地和精致高端(尖端)产业制高点。     

中国劳动生产率及其区域差异的时空演变北大核心

采用时间节点分析法、Kernel密度估计和Dagum基尼系数及其分解法分析1985—2017年,中国劳动生产率及其区域差异的时空演变,可得出如下结论:东部地区、东北地区劳动生产率领先,西部地区劳动生产率由低于中部演变为超过中部,区域年均增长率由大到小依次为西部地区、东部地区、中部地区、东北地区;Kernel密度估计表明,伴随整体劳动生产率水平的提高,劳动生产率增长较快的省份与增长较慢的省份之间形成较大的差距,并且出现了极化现象;Dagum基尼系数及其分解结果显示,中国劳动生产率的区域差异总体呈下降趋势,经历“上升—下降—上升—下降”的变化,区域间差异和区域内差异是中国劳动生产率总体差异的主要来源。总体来看,中国劳动生产率呈不断增长的趋势,劳动生产率相对较高的省份将逐渐增加、相对较低的省份会逐渐减少。     

Incumplimiento del salario mínimo en Europa central y oriental

En este estudio se analiza el incumplimiento del salario mínimo durante el periodo 2003–2012 en diez países de Europa central y oriental con salario mínimo obligatorio nacional. A partir de los datos de EU‐SILC y la metodología propuesta por Bhorat, Kanbur y Mayet (2013), se cuantifica la incidencia y magnitud del incumplimiento. Se realizan análisis de regresión sobre determinantes individuales, laborales y macroeconómicos. Aunque la incidencia permanece relativamente baja, los trabajadores a los que se dirigen las políticas de salario mínimo parecen los más expuestos a su incumplimiento. Con el tiempo, una mayor incidencia se asocia a una razón más alta entre salario mínimo y salario medio.     

Multinomial distributions applied to random sampling of particulate materials

When sampling a batch consisting of particulate material, the distribution of a sample estimator can be characterized using knowledge about the sample drawing process. With Bernoulli sampling, the number of particles in the sample is binomially distributed. Because this is rarely realized in practice, we propose a sampling design in which the possible samples have a nearly equal mass. Expected values and variances of the sample estimator are calculated. It is shown that the sample estimator becomes identical to the Horvitz–Thompson estimator in the case of a large batch-to-sample mass ratio and a large sample mass. Simulations and experiments were performed to test the theory. Simulations confirm that the round-off error due to the discrete nature of particles is negligible for large sample sizes. Sampling experiments were carried out with a mixture of PolyPropylene (PP) and PolyTetraFluorEthylene (PTFE) spheres suspended in a viscous medium. The measured and theoretical variations are in good agreement.     

Cultural Economy Planning in Creative Cities: Discourse and Practice

While a growing body of research analyses the functional mechanisms of the cultural or creative economy, there has been little attention devoted to understanding how local governments translate this work into policy. Moreover, research in this vein focuses predominately on Richard Florida's creative class thesis rather than considering the wider body of work that may influence policy. This article seeks to develop a deeper understanding of how municipalities conceptualize and plan for the cultural economy through the lens of two cities held up as model ‘creative cities’ — Austin, Texas and Toronto, Ontario. The work pays particular attention to how the cities adopt and adapt leading theories, strategies and discourses of the cultural economy. While policy documents indicate that the cities embrace the creative city model, in practice agencies tend to adapt conventional economic development strategies for cultural economy activity and appropriate the language of the creative city for multiple purposes.     

Performance appraisal and culture: practice and attitudes in Hong Kong and Great Britain

This article compares the practice of and attitudes towards performance appraisal for managerial and professional staff in Hong Kong and Britain, and considers the extent to which actual practice and employee preferences are in alignment. Findings suggest that appraisal may be more widespread in Hong Kong than in Britain. However, British appraisal tends to be more participative and to place greater emphasis on discussing objectives, development and career plans. Hong Kong appraisals appear to be more directive and Hong Kong respondents perceive a higher level of 'negative' appraiser behaviour. In spite of this, Hong Kong respondents show if anything slightly more confidence in the utility of appraisal than do British respondents. They show stronger support for appraisal's use for reward and punishment and less support for the objectives-setting and training and development uses than do the British sample. Hong Kong respondents are more likely than their British counterparts to favour involving a more senior manager in appraisal, and they are less likely to prefer more frequent appraisals. There was little evidence that Hong Kong respondents had a stronger preference for group-based appraisal criteria, although they did show more support than the British sample for the use of personality as a basis for appraisal. Overall, the suggestion is that appraisal has been adopted in Hong Kong organizations but that the practice of appraisal has been adapted to suit the cultural characteristics of the society.     

Narrative construction of expatriate experience and career cycle: discursive patterns in Finnish stories of international

Expatriate experience is not only a disconnected occasion for cross-cultural anxiety and adjustment but also an important event in the process of self-development and learning. Following this view and arguing for a discursive approach, the paper focuses on ways in which expatriates themselves tell and interpret their development and movement across expatriate career cycle. Meaning systems connecting expatriate job with previous and following work experiences in career stories of Finnish engineers and managers were identified using a combination of narrative and discourse analysis. No evidence was found of an autonomous expatriate discourse but, in contrast, expatriate career cycle was narrated using available organizational repertoires of development and career. Describing and discussing the meaning-making properties of three identified discourses - bureaucratic, occupational and enterprising - the paper emphasizes the organizational environment of expatriate experience while acknowledging the limits of these contemporary career vocabularies in addressing individual learning and change in cross-cultural settings.     

Internet professionals: job skills for an on-line age

The paper explores the increasing popularity of the Internet technology Singapore. It argues that the diffusion of Internet technology to South-East Asia would create new duties and responsibilities for human resource (HR) managers. One such duty is the identification of the skills which professional Internet staff would need to perform their work effectively in organizations. Using a triangulation research method, empirical study has identified the new professional Internet jobs which have emerged the IT industry in Singapore and the skills that professional Internet personnel require do their jobs effectively. Analysis of the findings indicates that professional Internet skills involve both technical and creative abilities and that, in explaining or defining professional Internet skills, it is necessary to use both the technical and the social conceptions of skill. This argument is based on the view that the creative skills include tacit skills so that a definition based solely on the technical conception of skill cannot capture the various dimensions of Internet skills. The implications of the research findings for human resource managers are raised.     

Input/output ranges and performance: an examination of US machine tool producers

Despite the establishment of high-tech multinational enterprises (MNEs) in Ireland since the late 1950s, the country did not succeed in closing the technological gap with most of its EU counterparts. The weak National System of Innovation (NSI), and in particular low business and government R&D levels, combined with a lack of research and technology linkages between MNEs and indigenous firms, explain these poor results. However, the Shannon region in the West of the country presents some specific institutional characteristics that could theoretically make the region a strong technological enclave. The various actors in the region - i.e. the administrative, financial, political and research institutions, as well as the business organizations - have indeed infused a new type of economic development. After a brief review of the available concepts and models articulated around these actors and their interrelationships, the paper analyses whether the Shannon region, taken as an illustrative example, mirrors a specific economic and technological localized setting. The study is based on a survey of indigenous and foreign firms.     

Sixty years of discrimination and diversity research in human resource management: A review with suggestions for future research directions

This article reviews discrimination and diversity research published in Human Resource Management (HRM) over the past 60 years. While discrimination and diversity are very different constructs, it is often informative to study them together, because when people recognize each other's diversity, this can result in bias, stereotyping, and discrimination. We conducted bibliographic searches for terms related to discrimination and diversity as well as a manual search through every title and abstract published in HRM over the last 60 years to assess article relevance. The search resulted in 135 research articles with 136 unique studies (i.e., samples) which are reviewed in this article. Sex and race are the demographics that have been examined the most in HRM, while religion has been examined the least. Moreover, the number of studies examining lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) employees in the workplace in HRM has grown quickly within the past 10 years, culminating in a recent meta‐analysis. Our review looks at some of the earliest research published, the most recent research published, and the overall trends we identified in the research over the years for both discrimination and diversity articles. We then make future research suggestions and recommendations to advance the study of discrimination and diversity in the coming years.     

关于高校教学秘书工作的认识与思考

教学秘书在教学管理中起着举足轻重的作用,本文结合自己近6年从事教学秘书的工作实践和体会,阐述了高校教学秘书的工作职能和工作内容,提出了教学秘书应具备的素质,分析了日前教学秘书工作中存在的问题,探讨了教学秘书工作改进的方法与途径。     

Sister Communities: Rejecting Labels of Informality and Peripherality in Vanuatu

Some labels have dire consequences. This article takes issue with the labels commonly used to describe the physical and social location of communities living on the edge of Port Vila, Vanuatu—labels that position communities for eviction by entrenching tropes of informality and peripherality into how they are seen and represented. Such terms include informal, settlement, informal settlement, squatter and peri-urban. Based on interviews with around 100 people and two years of ethnographic engagement with urban communities in Port Vila, Vanuatu, I critique the language of policy against the lived experience of those at the urban edge. I use Bourdieu's articulation of power as an accumulation of symbolic capital that enables one to speak the world into being. I conclude that the language of policies and plans is reflective of a dominant discourse in urban studies and international aid, and non-reflective of the experience and identities of people living at the urban edge. My interviewees and interlocutors maintain their identities as sister communities—as places grounded in the formality of customary tenure, and as part of the city rather than outside it.