Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility: A Spurious Relationship?

This paper replicates the estimation results of three studies on the impact of the age composition of the labor force on business cycle volatility and investigates whether they signal a meaningful long‐run relationship. We show that both the volatile‐age labor force share variable and the business cycle volatility measure exhibit non‐stationary behavior but find no robust evidence of cointegration. Hence the estimation results reported in the literature may be spurious. This conclusion is further supported by the finding that the strong relationship (i) disappears when cross‐sectional dependence is accounted for using the CCEP estimator and (ii) is highly sensitive to small changes in the composition of the sample, to data revisions, and to the exact definition of the volatile‐age labor share. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Has agricultural labor restructuring improved agricultural labor productivity in China? A decomposition approach

This paper presents a framework for analyzing the changes in agricultural labor productivity with regards to the structural, land intensity, and land productivity effects. This approach allows for the residual-free decomposition of data from different levels of aggregation. The logarithmic mean Divisia index was applied for the analysis and a data envelopment analysis model was constructed to identify potential gains in agricultural labor productivity due to the optimization of input use and output production. The proposed approach was applied to the case of China over the period of 1997–2017. Province-level data were used to identify the major driving factors behind agricultural labor productivity change. Land productivity change appeared to be the major source of agricultural labor productivity gains in China. The structural change was rather negligible, suggesting that the reallocation of the agricultural labor force did not add to the agricultural labor productivity growth in China. A frontier analysis indicated that agricultural labor productivity could increase by some 45% on average in case full technical efficiency is achieved.     

The China effect: Evidence from data at firm level in Thailand

This study investigates how competition with Chinese imports affects firms in Thailand. Using World Bank data on Thailand and United Nations trade data from 2003 to 2006, the empirical results show that there is no significant impact of Chinese import competition on employment, wages, or labor income share. However, further checks show that for firms with lower productivity, the impact on employment and labor income share is more likely to be negative. The impact of Chinese import competition on profit margins is significantly positive. Considering the impact on labor income share and profit margins, we conclude that because of Chinese import competition, income distribution possibly goes in disfavor of labor. Our study shows that the impact of Chinese import competition on the skilled labor ratio is positive and significant. This result suggests that Thai firms are on the path to skill upgrading as a result of Chinese import competition, which is helpful for Thailand’s long-run economic growth. As firms with low productivity are more likely to be negatively affected by Chinese import competition, improving productivity is still an efficient way to counter such competition.     

WILL THE “TRUE” LABOR SHARE STAND UP? AN APPLIED SURVEY ON LABOR SHARE MEASURES

Labor's share of income is a key variable in economics. It plays a leading role in analysis of (in)equality, globalization, technical change, growth theories, etc. Notwithstanding this broad application, there are many different definitions of the labor share. Understanding and synthesizing those differences is the purpose of this applied survey. Empirical measures may vary reflecting the allocation of income components that cannot be directly ascribed to capital or labor. We examine the alternative assumptions made in the literature in this regard and quantify and motivate the resulting discrepancies. Focusing (mostly) on US data, we show that different measures can have very distinct properties in terms of the observed stochastic trends, shares of short‐, medium‐, and long‐run variation and volatilities, persistence and mean‐reversion properties, and susceptibility to structural breaks. For instance, while “short‐run” properties of the surveyed labor share measures are relatively consistent across all definitions (and countercyclical), their “medium‐” and “long‐run” trends may diverge substantially (and are procyclical). To substantiate our analysis, we document the implications of discrepancies in the empirical labor share definition for growth accounting, analyzing the effect of technology shocks, and for estimating inflation dynamics.     

Reliable design of a congested disaster relief network: A two-stage stochastic-robust optimization approach

The preparedness of humanitarian relief networks can be enhanced by pre-positioning resources in strategic locations and using them when disasters strike, a strategy that gives rise to a two-stage planning problem. This paper presents a novel two-stage stochastic-robust optimization approach for integrated planning of pre- and post-disaster positioning and allocation of relief resources, while taking into consideration the uncertainty about demand for relief services and disruptions in the relief facilities and the transportation network. The proposed approach enables planners to effectively use limited historical data and imperfect experts’ opinions to obtain robust solutions while avoiding the over-conservatism of classical robust optimization methods. The objective sought is to minimize the expected total time victims need to receive assistance, including both access time to facilities and waiting/service time in them. Congestion in relief facilities is accounted for by modeling them as queuing systems and penalizing waiting time. A decomposition method based on column-and-constraint generation is implemented to solve the problem, whereas the nonlinear terms corresponding to queuing in the second-stage problem are handled using a direct search procedure. Applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated through a real case study and the numerical results are analyzed to draw managerial insights.     

Efficient employment of cohorts of labor in the U.S. economy: An illustration of a method

This paper presents a model for the analysis of efficient labor force participation in the U.S. economy. Ridge regression estimates of the elasticities of cohorts of labor, classified by sex and occupation, are used in conjunction with wage data to illustrate the derivation of efficient allocation of labor cohorts in five economic sectors. These efficient constructs are compared with actual census data for 1960 and 1970. The results, while tentative, show a trend toward more efficient utilization of labor and greater participation by women in the work force.     

我国劳动收入份额下降影响因素分析

利用中国省际面板数据实证分析了近年来中国劳动收入份额持续下降的影响因素,结果表明,二元经济结构的强度和人力资本均与劳动收入份额之间呈显著负相关。基于此,认为要扭转劳动收入份额下降的趋势,根本途径是消除二元经济结构,通过提高农业的比较劳动生产率和降低城乡收入差距来加快向一元经济结构过渡。     

Inventory record inaccuracy: Causes and labor effects

Inventory record inaccuracy (IRI) is a pervasive problem in retailing and causes non-trivial profit loss. In response to retailers’ interest in identifying antecedents and consequences of IRI, we present a study that comprises multiple modeling initiatives. We first develop a dynamic simulation model to compare and contrast impacts of different operational errors in a continuous (Q, R) inventory system through a full-factorial experimental design. While backroom and shelf shrinkage are found to be predominant drivers of IRI, the other three errors related to recording and shelving have negligible impacts on IRI. Next, we empirically assess the relationships between labor availability and IRI using longitudinal data from five stores in a global retail chain. After deriving a robust measure of IRI through Bayesian computation and estimating panel data models, we find strong evidence that full-time labor reduces IRI whereas part-time labor fails to alleviate it. Further, we articulate the reinforcing relationships between labor and IRI by formally assessing the gain of the feedback loop based on our empirical findings and analyzing immediate, intermediate, and long-term impacts of IRI on labor availability. The feedback modeling effort not only integrates findings from simulation and econometric analysis but also structurally explores the impacts of current practices. We conclude by discussing implications of our findings for practitioners and researchers.     

Erratum to ‘Inventory record inaccuracy: Causes and labor effects’

Inventory record inaccuracy (IRI) is a pervasive problem in retailing and causes non-trivial profit loss. In response to retailers’ interest in identifying antecedents and consequences of IRI, we present a study that comprises multiple modeling initiatives. We first develop a dynamic simulation model to compare and contrast impacts of different operational errors in a continuous (Q, R) inventory system through a full-factorial experimental design. While backroom and shelf shrinkage are found to be predominant drivers of IRI, the other three errors related to recording and shelving have negligible impacts on IRI. Next, we empirically assess the relationships between labor availability and IRI using longitudinal data from five stores in a global retail chain. After deriving a robust measure of IRI through Bayesian computation and estimating panel data models, we find strong evidence that full-time labor reduces IRI whereas part-time labor fails to alleviate it. Further, we articulate the reinforcing relationships between labor and IRI by formally assessing the gain of the feedback loop based on our empirical findings and analyzing immediate, intermediate, and long-term impacts of IRI on labor availability. The feedback modeling effort not only integrates findings from simulation and econometric analysis but also structurally explores the impacts of current practices. We conclude by discussing implications of our findings for practitioners and researchers.     

On the Endogeneous Formation of Secondary Employment Centers in a City

A new approach is proposed to explain the formation of secondary employment centers in a monocentric city. Specifically, a large firm considers locating a new plant in a city where none of the existing businesses has a significative share of the labor force, so that its location can be viewed as a secondary employment center. The choice of this location results from the interplay between the process of competition on both the labor and land markets and the technological externalities generated by the proximity of the city center where other firms are located.     

Fun with matched firm-employee data: Progress and road maps

With a worldwide burgeoning development of matched firm-employee data now underway, it is worthwhile to examine the possibilities for using these data. This essay discusses a variety of areas in which some progress has been made and presents ideas for future research in a number of others, including the study of labor demand, search and unemployment, wage determination and time use. It concludes that such data could be as important for labor economics, and for generating new knowledge about labor markets, as have been longitudinal household datasets, but with existing restrictions on access this kind of success will be difficult to achieve.     

Consumption and labor supply

We present a new econometric model of aggregate demand and labor supply for the United States. We also analyze the allocation full wealth among time periods for households distinguished by a variety of demographic characteristics. The model is estimated using micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys supplemented with price information obtained from the Consumer Price Index. An important feature of our approach is that aggregate demands and labor supply can be represented in closed form while accounting for the substantial heterogeneity in behavior that is found in household-level data. As a result, we are able to explain the patterns of aggregate demand and labor supply in the data despite using a parametrically parsimonious specification.     

城市扩张、土地财政与农村剩余劳动力转移——来自中国281个地级市的经验证据

本文系统分析城市扩张、土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响机制，并针对中国281个城市的面板数据，综合运用GMM估计和面板门槛效应模型，考察城市扩张和土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响效应。结果显示：城市扩张对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响主要呈现推动作用，且可能表现出倒U型趋势。以公共服务供给水平和工资水平作为门槛变量，城市扩张对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在门槛效应；土地财政依赖则不利于农村剩余劳动力转移，且城市扩张与土地财政依赖对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响存在异质性。同时，城市扩张与土地财政依赖的交互项系数显著为正，表明在与土地财政互动的过程中，城市扩张推动农村剩余劳动力转移的效用被不断削弱。     

The effects of higher education policy on the location decision of individuals: Evidence from Florida's Bright Futures Scholarship Program

Over the past two decades, numerous states have adopted merit-based aid programs to subsidize higher education for in-state students. One of the main objectives of these programs is to increase the stock of educated labor in the state by retaining those whose education is subsidized. This study provides evidence on the extent to which such a program in Florida has affected the location decision of college-educated Florida natives. The analysis utilizes a difference-in-difference approach and data from the Census and American Community Survey (ACS). The results indicate that those eligible for the program are significantly more likely to locate in Florida after completing their education than those who were not eligible. These results are robust to a number of alternative specifications, including a comparison with neighboring states.     

Wage premia and skill upgrading in Italy: why didn't the hound bark?

This paper presents firm-level evidence on the change of the employment share and the wage premium of non-manual workers in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of the aggregate wage premium and employment share hides offsetting disaggregate forces: technical progress raises the relative demand for skilled labor within firms, whereas demand changes associated with trade reduce the relative demand for skills. Moreover, it is within the class of non-manual workers that most of the action takes place: the wage premium and employment share of executives rise substantially, while those of clerks fall in a similar proportion. Finally, we find that the export status of firms plays a key role in explaining labor market dynamics: exporters account for most of both demand-related and technology-related shifts. Overall, our results for Italy question the conventional view that the labor market is “rigid” due to labor market institutions.     

Barriers to employee rights: Gender,selection, and the labor process

This article applies a labor process analysis to the issue of employment rights in the particular context of gender inequality and unlawful discrimination in the recruitment process. It criticizes conventional perspectives on employee rights for their failure to examine critically managerial power and prerogative and its implications for gender inequality. The article outlines two particular labor process theories of gender divisions and inequality. In exploring the strengths and weaknesses of these more critical perspectives, the article highlights the analytical significance that they ascribe to power asymmetries in the labor process and labor market. Building on this perspective, the analysis then presents empirical data on gender discrimination in the selection practices of contemporary UK organizations. The research material reveals how gender discrimination can be reproduced, rationalized, and resisted. These empirical findings are theorized through a combined labor process analysis of power, knowledge, and identity in recruitment practices. We conclude that labor process analysis facilitates our understanding of the deep-seated barriers that continue to impede the protection of employee rights in workplace practices.     

电力建设项目风险管理中随机过程的应用

近年来伴随着我国经济快速增长,无论是政府投资还是社会投资,电力建设项目都占有重要的地位。由于电力建设项目的高投入、高风险性,风险管理是项目管理的重要组成部分,先进的风险管理技术是项目管理者必备的手段。本文探讨了随机过程中的马尔科夫链在项目风险管理中的应用。通过实例分析表明应用马尔科夫链可以较好地进行项目风险预测。     

基于非线性主成分分析的信用评估模型研究

传统的主成分分析（PCA）本质上是一种线性映射算法,无法有效处理非线性关系的数据。本文在分析自联想神经网络（AANN）的基础上,借鉴传统PCA方法中的序数主成分概念,提出了基于顺序自联想神经网络（SAANN）的非线性主成分分析法（NLPCA）。进一步,结合神经网络（NN）和Logisitic模型,以我国上市公司为研究对象,分别构建了基于NLPCA-NN和NLPCA-Logisitic的信用评估模型。实证结果及ROC曲线分析表明,本文构建的NLPCA相比传统的线性PCA方法能有效地实现数据的非线性特征提取与降维,提高模型预测性能。此外,实证结果还表明,在相同PCA方法处理数据的条件下,神经网络模型的信用评估效果要好于Logisitic模型。     

Nonparametric stochastic frontiers: A local maximum likelihood approach

This paper proposes a new approach to handle nonparametric stochastic frontier (SF) models. It is based on local maximum likelihood techniques. The model is presented as encompassing some anchorage parametric model in a nonparametric way. First, we derive asymptotic properties of the estimator for the general case (local linear approximations). Then the results are tailored to a SF model where the convoluted error term (efficiency plus noise) is the sum of a half normal and a normal random variable. The parametric anchorage model is a linear production function with a homoscedastic error term. The local approximation is linear for both the production function and the parameters of the error terms. The performance of our estimator is then established in finite samples using simulated data sets as well as with a cross-sectional data on US commercial banks. The methods appear to be robust, numerically stable and particularly useful for investigating a production process and the derived efficiency scores.     

The human resources approach to manpower,education and income distribution planning

This paper first presents the hypothesis relating the education of the labor force to production, along with some observations about its statistical verification. The conceptual basis for the manpower approach to educational planning appears next, followed by a discussion of its use with and without the assumption of constant labor productivity. Finally, the human resources approach to manpower and educational planning is extended to include income distribution planning. The method developed is applied to Mexico.